Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

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rwandan-flyer
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Air Côte d’Ivoire: Paris-Abidjan route stalls, Beirut already uncertain

Between a Paris-Abidjan route still far from profitable and a Beirut project suspended due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Ivorian airline's long-haul strategy is entering a delicate phase. https://www-jeuneafrique-com.translate. ... _hist=true
Unsurprisingly, the route to CDG is struggling. It's operating at an average of 40% load factor, compared to an average Air France load factor of 82% on its African routes.

The route is even underperforming, despite launched during a period of high demand for flights to Abidjan. The Paris-Abidjan route attracts a diverse clientele: business travelers, tourists, and members of the diaspora. However, Air France and Corsair have several advantages:

Air France benefits from its hub and brand recognition, and Corsair from its brand recognition. There is no information regarding the market share of the three airlines. Air Côte d'Ivoire still hopes to rely on its hub to fill its A330neos. Air Côte d'Ivoire is advocating for better slots on the route, but according to Sean Mendis, the French airlines are protecting a market they have built up over the years, representing millions of euros in revenue.

Another issue is ticket prices. Air Côte d'Ivoire aims to attract a high-end clientele, but lacks the marketing resources and global partnerships, which is not the case of its competitors. Air Côte d'Ivoire's pricing policy is struggling to attract passengers.

Air Côte d'Ivoire: Economy: €700, First Class: €7,800
Air France: Economy: €990, First Class: €4,330 (First or Business Class, not specified)
Corsair: Economy: €680, Business Class: €2,780

As for the Beirut route, scheduled to launch on March 29, 2026, it is currently in jeopardy due to the situation in the Middle East.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Recorded on February 27, 2026, before the start of the US/Israel/Iran war
In this episode, we discuss the latest developments in routes and fleets in African aviation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeRVGEgVu1E&t=4885s

Details on the FlySafair sale

Uganda Airlines: Changes in management, fleet, and routes

Kenya Airways: What are the next steps? Will it find an investor or partner? Singapore and Qatar have declined any interest.

Ethiopian Airlines: Addition of a fourth daily flight to Dubai, a second daily Bamako-Dakar flight, and discontinuation of service to Nacala.

Air Congo: Regional expansion – speculation about European service?

Eswatini Air will add Lusaka to its Harare service.

Qatar Airways reduces its frequencies to Kigali

United Nigeria Airlines: Fleet update and potential routes

Air India orders A321XLRs – destination: Africa?
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lumumba
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by lumumba »

rwandan-flyer wrote: 16 Mar 2026, 19:43
Air Côte d’Ivoire: Paris-Abidjan route stalls, Beirut already uncertain

Between a Paris-Abidjan route still far from profitable and a Beirut project suspended due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Ivorian airline's long-haul strategy is entering a delicate phase. https://www-jeuneafrique-com.translate. ... _hist=true
Unsurprisingly, the route to CDG is struggling. It's operating at an average of 40% load factor, compared to an average Air France load factor of 82% on its African routes.

The route is even underperforming, despite launched during a period of high demand for flights to Abidjan. The Paris-Abidjan route attracts a diverse clientele: business travelers, tourists, and members of the diaspora. However, Air France and Corsair have several advantages:

Air France benefits from its hub and brand recognition, and Corsair from its brand recognition. There is no information regarding the market share of the three airlines. Air Côte d'Ivoire still hopes to rely on its hub to fill its A330neos. Air Côte d'Ivoire is advocating for better slots on the route, but according to Sean Mendis, the French airlines are protecting a market they have built up over the years, representing millions of euros in revenue.

Another issue is ticket prices. Air Côte d'Ivoire aims to attract a high-end clientele, but lacks the marketing resources and global partnerships, which is not the case of its competitors. Air Côte d'Ivoire's pricing policy is struggling to attract passengers.

Air Côte d'Ivoire: Economy: €700, First Class: €7,800
Air France: Economy: €990, First Class: €4,330 (First or Business Class, not specified)
Corsair: Economy: €680, Business Class: €2,780

As for the Beirut route, scheduled to launch on March 29, 2026, it is currently in jeopardy due to the situation in the Middle East.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Recorded on February 27, 2026, before the start of the US/Israel/Iran war
In this episode, we discuss the latest developments in routes and fleets in African aviation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeRVGEgVu1E&t=4885s

Details on the FlySafair sale

Uganda Airlines: Changes in management, fleet, and routes

Kenya Airways: What are the next steps? Will it find an investor or partner? Singapore and Qatar have declined any interest.

Ethiopian Airlines: Addition of a fourth daily flight to Dubai, a second daily Bamako-Dakar flight, and discontinuation of service to Nacala.

Air Congo: Regional expansion – speculation about European service?

Eswatini Air will add Lusaka to its Harare service.

Qatar Airways reduces its frequencies to Kigali

United Nigeria Airlines: Fleet update and potential routes

Air India orders A321XLRs – destination: Africa?
Without a hub,for Air Cote d'ivoire the A321 XLR would have be a better choice.
Hasta la victoria siempre.

rwandan-flyer
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Sean Mendis is always well-informed about Ethiopian Airlines. In addition to its order for five 777X Freighters and two B777-300ERSFs, Ethiopian will convert its six B777-200LRs into freighters. In the long term, they will have more than 20 B777F freighters (they already have 12 B777Fs). This is in addition to four B737-800Fs and four B767-300ERFs.

But how do they do it?! :shock:

Addadays (ADD) isn't among the top three African airports handling cargo. Nairobi and Johannesburg are the top two in Africa for cargo (followed by Cairo), but they are heavily served by foreign carriers. JNB and NBO are the only two airports in Africa served by FedEx and Singapore Airlines Cargo, for example. But their cargo airlines aren't really benefiting from the demand.

https://www.logisticsbusinessafrica.co. ... -the-year/


Development in Europe is at a standstill for several reasons. It should be noted that in the latest Aviadev podcast, we learned that Ethiopian Airlines has seen an increase in its North American and Asian traffic, primarily to Canada and India, due to the war in the Middle East. However, Addis Ababa is forced to ration its fuel. As a result, some Ethiopian Airlines flights to Asia are making a technical stop in Oman, and those to South America are stopping in Uganda. North American flights are stopping in Rome.

Kenya Airways has also recorded a more surprising increase in demand between London and Thailand. Kenya Airways has been serving Bangkok since 2003, with an interruption during the Covid pandemic.

However, speakers insist that this is temporary and that as soon as the airlines increase capacity, some passengers will return via the Middle East.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEzwzr0JJhA
B747-437B wrote:
berari wrote:But the plans concerning these 777Ls were certainly not drawn up in haste.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p25211989

The plans to convert the 777-200LRs into freighters have been in preparation for a long time; we even discussed them on this forum last year. I assume the order of conversions is determined by available slots and maintenance schedules. They will operate flights until the remaining cycle times are minimal, then send them to AFW at the appropriate time.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p25211979
B747-437B wrote:
TC957 wrote:Why doesn't ET serve AMS or MUC? This represents a significant gap in their European network.

AMS (Amsterdam), due to a lack of available slots to meet their needs.

MUC (Munich), due to restrictions related to the Basis Air Traffic Services Agreement (BASA) with Germany.

LIS (Lisbon) is another route they are keen to open in Europe, but they are limited by the availability of flight slots.
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Air Algérie inaugurated its Algiers-Kuala Lumpur route on 29MAR26 with an A330-900. The flight was full. Apparently, there is very high demand, mainly from Algerians going on holiday to Malaysia. Algerians do not need a visa to travel to Malaysia.

https://x.com/Algeria3New/status/203854 ... _&ref_url=
First flight yesterday between Algiers and Kuala Lumpur!

- Algerians flock to Malaysia every year for their holidays; it's a very popular destination, especially because it's accessible without a visa.

We observed a full plane, which is excellent news for Algerian travelers, who previously had to stop over in Istanbul, Dubai, or, more often, Doha.

Air Algérie becomes the fourth African airline to serve Kuala Lumpur, after EgyptAir, Ethiopian Airlines, and Air Mauritius.
Luanda (Angola) and Maputo (Mozambique) have just appeared on the airline's website. Apparently, these two destinations will be served via Johannesburg with two stopovers starting in mid-June 2026, using A330-900 aircraft.
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Massive expansion for Etihad in Africa for 2027 with new routes to Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Harare, Accra and Amsara (for Nov26) :shock: . They will resume flights to Lagos.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eymar27af
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eynov26asm
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by sn26567 »

rwandan-flyer wrote: 17 Apr 2026, 22:14 Massive expansion for Etihad in Africa for 2027 with new routes to Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Harare, Accra and Amsara (for Nov26) :shock: . They will resume flights to Lagos.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eymar27af
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eynov26asm
And https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/etih ... -corridor/
André
ex Sabena #26567

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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by convair »

sn26567 wrote: 17 Apr 2026, 23:56
rwandan-flyer wrote: 17 Apr 2026, 22:14 Massive expansion for Etihad in Africa for 2027 with new routes to Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Harare, Accra and Amsara (for Nov26) :shock: . They will resume flights to Lagos.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eymar27af
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eynov26asm
And https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/etih ... -corridor/
Isn't the timing of such expansion a bit strange in view of the current situation in the Middle East?

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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Well Flights will start in one year, they have a time.

In the same time, Turkish Airlines will suspend 9 destinations in Africa from the next month :shock: :shock:

Turkish is discontinuing flights to Monrovia, Freetown, Lusaka, Luanda, Kinshasa, Bissau, Libreville and Pointe Noire beginning May 2026.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260424-tkns26

Major blow for Luanda with the end of Brussels Airlines flights few months ago and now Turkish Airlines. 2 Europeans airlines!!

It's important to note that Turkish Airlines (TK) had the largest network in Africa, with over 50 destinations. I'll bring up an article from Jeune Afrique published in March 2026, which suggested that TK could be the big winner of this crisis in Africa.

About Kinshasa flights are suspended till Oct26 https://x.com/3P2H4L/status/2047313341131997652/photo/1 (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HGmEohgXkAA ... me=900x900)
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Royal Air Maroc Prepares Cuts That Threaten Tourism

Faced with soaring kerosene prices linked to tensions in the Middle East, Royal Air Maroc plans to eliminate several flight routes. This downsizing primarily targets unprofitable flights and directly threatens domestic tourism.

Confronted with a price surge deemed "unsustainable" for global transport, the Moroccan airline is preparing cuts to its network. According to information obtained by Hespress, this measure will initially affect structurally fragile routes, such as recently opened or upcoming launches that are struggling to achieve profitability. While the final list has not yet been determined, the carrier has already suspended its flights to Dubai and Doha due to the clashes in the Middle East. A source close to the matter warns that "other routes could be closed" and included in this restructuring plan.

https://www-bladi-net.translate.goog/ro ... r_pto=wapp
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

As surprising as it may seem, Brussels Airlines is arguably the best performing airline in Europe to serve Sub-Saharan Africa, despite being the smallest of the airlines if we talk BA, AF, KL or TAP. SN closed Bamako in 2010s and Luanda last year. But it has opened Accra, reopened Nairobi, will open Kilimanjaro, and is increasing most of its flights, wile KL, AF and TAP after dedecade of expansion in Africa have closed several routes since 6-7 years. Unfortunately, it is facing strong criticism on Belgian aviation forum. :mrgreen:

Two articles about Turkish Airlines were published within a month of each other in Jeune Afrique (March 2026 and April 2026). I won't give a lengthy summary of the first one.

First article (March 18, 2026)
Turkish Airlines maintains its course in Africa despite the turbulence

Opening new routes, increasing capacity, maintaining its presence in the Sahel… Facing competition from Air France and the Gulf giants, Turkish Airlines has been building its network across the continent in recent years. Will the conflict in the Middle East complicate its expansion?

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1774947/ec ... rbulences/
The first article states that Turkish Airlines had the capacity to adapt to Africa because it has a large network via Istanbul, even though this could depend on the intensity of the crisis in the Middle East and the rise in fuel prices. It also uses B737-800 aircraft, which allows it to serve many destinations in Africa with high frequencies. It also benefits from the withdrawal of European airlines from certain West African destinations.

In Bamako, it transported 65,000 passengers in 2024, including 20,000 from Europe. I will talk about again Bamako for the second article, as it is still being discussed.

Finally, the article explains that Turkish Airlines does not own stakes in African airlines, but has significant codeshare agreements with South African Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, EgyptAir, Air Algérie, and RwandAir (not mentioned in the article). Turkish Airlines places its TK code on routes operated by the mentioned African airlines, and these African airlines put their codes on Turkish Airlines flights departing from Istanbul.

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1774947/ec ... rbulences/

-------------------------------------------------------

2nd article (April 27, 2026)
Why Turkish Airlines is finally forced to scale back its operations in Africa

Turkish Airlines cuts its African network for summer 2026: ten destinations eliminated or suspended. Behind these decisions lie the soaring price of kerosene and the crisis in the Middle East.

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1791738/ec ... continent/
We have learned that Turkish Airlines will suspend service to certain destinations in Africa for 6 or 12 months. Unsurprisingly, these are destinations that are either unprofitable or barely profitable. For example, we learn that on the Freetown-Istanbul route operated via Ouagadougou, Turkish Airlines carries only about forty passengers to Freetown after its stopover in Ouagadougou.

Regarding Bamako, the volume is quite significant, with 65,000 passengers in 2024. Bamako is Turkish Airlines' third most important destination in Francophone West Africa, after Dakar and Abidjan. Turkish Airlines benefited somewhat from the suspension of Air France flights to Bamako (+2,000 passengers on the Istanbul-Europe-Bamako route vs 2023).

However, the airline faces significant competition on the Paris-Bamako route. Corsair, which operates flights between Paris Orly and Bamako, carried 91,000 passengers in 2025. In addition, it faces competition from Royal Air Maroc (they will increase some routes in W and C Africa for this summer https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260429-atjun26af), Tunisair, and Air Algérie. In Asia, it competes with Ethiopian Airlines, which carried 152,000 passengers to and from Bamako, including... 76,000 who traveled to Dubai via Addis Ababa!!! :shock:

Emirates announced a Bamako-Dubai route in 2016 (https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... nama-city/), but bookings unfortunately closed before the first flight. It remains to be seen whether Emirates might launch the Bamako route once the situation in Mali has calmed down. I could see it working well with a tag-along service via Conakry and Dakar being served non-stop again.

Speaking of calm, that's precisely the problem in Mali: the insecurity that also led Turkish Airlines to suspend its flights. There have been fuel supply issues in Mali for months, and the various rebel groups still have the capacity to destabilize the country.

The biggest loser is undoubtedly Central Africa, which is surely the least well-served region in Africa, whether from Europe or via major African airlines. In Southern Africa, Lusaka and Luanda will be suspended, and in East Africa, Juba will be suspended.

Personal opinion (not in the article)

Etihad's arrivals in Kinshasa shouldn't obscure the poor service to Central Africa. Pointe Noire, Kinshasa, and Libreville are all affected by the suspensions. Don't forget that Turkish Airlines closed its route to Malabo during the COVID-19 pandemic. Libreville is only served by Air France from Europe. Bangui is no longer served by Air France. Malabo has not been served by Turkish Airlines since the COVID-19 pandemic, and Iberia closed its route just under 10 years ago. Only Lufthansa and Air France remain, cause Air Plus Ultra appears to have closed its MAD Malabo route.
. It's worth noting that Kenya Airways also closed its routes to Brazzaville, Libreville, and Bangui during the COVID-19 pandemic.

For Southern Africa, I'm not expecting anything new. The strong service to Europe is concentrated on South Africa, Angola (which has lost British Airways, Iberia, Brussels Airlines and KLM in less than 10 years!), and Mauritius. For Namibia, Madagascar, and Mozambique, the focus is on the former colonial empire. Lusaka and Luanda will be suspended, and it's uncertain whether Turkish Airlines' projects in Namibia are still on the table in the short term. As for Zimbabwe, the country has been trying to attract Turkish for 10 years.

East Africa is the least affected region, with only Juba going to be suspended. Unsurprisingly, it's one of the most attractive regions in Africa. Turkish Airlines is even adding flights to Mauritius and Tanzania. Apart from Rwanda, regarding flights between the Middle East and East Africa, it seems to me that almost everyone has resumed operations (Gulf Air, Emirates, Qatar Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, Flynas, Air Arabia, etc.).

The paradox of Africa is that there is momentum, but airlines are much more cautious. Turkish Airlines is doing what TAP Air Portugal, Air France, and KLM have done in recent years. Or, if we go back further, British Airways closed dozens of routes in Africa in the 2000s and 2010s.

After a decade of expansion, they closed unprofitable routes. TAP Air Portugal, for example, closed its routes to Conakry, Lomé, and Abidjan after the COVID-19 pandemic. Air France closed routes to Bangui, Port Harcourt, Accra, Monrovia, and Freetown, to name just a few destinations. KLM closed its Windhoek and Luanda routes in the 2020s. Monrovia and Freetown closed in 2019. In the early 2010s, KLM closed one of its oldest routes in Africa: Kano, Nigeria, which it had served since 1946 (https://www.facebook.com/FreedomRadioNi ... 530893035/).
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by Established02 »

Due to fuel shortages Ethiopian Cargo is rerouting all their outbound flights to Europe via Jeddah and to Asia via Muscat, just for fueling.

Also the local population in Ethiopia is reportedly affected by fuel shortages.

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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Yep it's the case since several months and some flights to South America make fuel stop at Entebbe viewtopic.php?p=444162&hilit=ethiopian#p444162


Welcome to the May 2026 AviaDev Connectivity Update! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZKhDuXTcr0&t=6102s

Join host Jon Howell, Founder and CEO of AviaDev Africa, joined by Regular Guests and Aviation Consultants, Sean Mendis and Behramjee Ghadially as they dive into the latest developments in African aviation.

TOPICS:

Introduction and Overview - 0:37

Virgin Atlantic doubles down on South Africa - 1:58

KLM quietly grows Cape Town capacity- 4:46

South African Airways: new CEO, fresh cuts - 9:13

Airlink launches Cape Town–Zanzibar nonstop - 17:26

Turkish Airlines slashes African routes - 25:57

Qatar Airways' Return to Africa - 36:13

Air Tanzania's big ambitions - 39:54

Uganda Airlines' Operational Challenges - 52:28

Kenya Airways: what's new and next? - 59:13

Jambojet's low-cost regional push - 66:35

Air Botswana's Operational Issues - 76:46

Africa World Airlines eyes Conakry - 82:27

Ethiopian Airlines expands globally/ Air Congo's rapid expansion in the DRC/ Malawi Airlines adds Lubumbashi - 84:24

Air Peace cuts long-haul, buys narrowbodies - 94:19

United Nigeria eyes Johannesburg (exclusive) - 103:58

Air Côte d'Ivoire's Johannesburg Route - 106:59

#AviaDev #Aviation #Africa #Connectivity #Africanaviation
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Delta Sierra wrote: 24 May 2026, 09:45 Royal Air Maroc suspends 12 routes, including : Marrakech–Brussels.

The airline said the increase in fuel costs, linked to tensions in the MiddleEast, is putting pressure on operations, forcing it to adjust parts of its flight network.
The measure is temporary, with RAM expected to reassess the affected routes depending on market conditions and fuel price developments.
And also intra African routes.
https://www-africaradio-com.translate.g ... r_pto=wapp

Once again Central Africa is hardly by these suspensions. Since covid, some routes have opened, but not many (Qatar to Kinshasa, RwandAir to Bangui, Ethiopian to Bangui Egytpair to Kinshasa and Air Algerie to Douala), however the region has also lost some routes. I m talking about airlines providing flights with Europe.


Kinshasa:


Turkish Airlines, Royal Air Maroc and Uganda Airlines (due to the ebola crisis https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/n ... la-5471036 ) , but they have still Air France, Brussels Airlines, Qatar Airways, TAAG, Air Cote d'Ivoire, Egytpair, Ethiopian and Kenya Airways (but since weeks they serve Kinshasa on weekly basis, not longer with a daily service).

Douala and Yaoundé:

Only Royal Air Maroc has suspended flights. DLA is served by Air France, Brussels Airlines, Air Cote d'Ivoire Kenya Airways, Turkish Airlines, Ethiopian, Air Algerie, Egytpair and RwandAir. Yaounde lost Kenya Airways in 2022 (https://www.regionalgateway.net/kenya-a ... ery-plans/). NSI is served by Ethiopian, Air France, Brussels Airlines, Turkish Airlines and Air Cote d'Ivoire.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douala_In ... al_Airport
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaound%C3 ... al_Airport



Bangui
: Royal Air Maroc, but they lost Air France early 2026 and Kenya Airways in 2024 (https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/240724-kqaug24bgfdla). They have now only Ethiopian and RwandAir

Brazzaville: Royal Air Maroc, but they lost Kenya Airways during the covid. But RAM still planning to resume service to Pointe Noire from Oct26, 7 years after the suspension (https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news ... lc7vc033p/), while TK has suspended flights to Pointe Noire. Air Cote d'Ivoire, Air France, Ethiopian still serving the airport.

Libreville: Royal Air Maroc and Turkish Airlines have suspended flights, however Air Algerie will start flights from 17Jun26 (https://www-visa--algerie-com.translate ... r_pto=wapp). LBV is now served by Air France, Air Cote d'Ivoire, RwandAir and Ethiopian while Kenya Airways ended service during the covid.
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Interview published today with Ariana McKnire, Director of Airline Business Development, Washington Metropolitan Airport Authority

An interesting podcast. We tend to think New York attracts everything, but that's not the case at all. Washington is home to a very large portion of the African diaspora in the US. The market is a mix of VFR (visiting friends and relatives), leisure, business (due to the presence of US companies in Washingtonia), and diplomatic traffic.

The segment on the Nairobi-Washington route is particularly interesting, as it represents the largest African market not currently served by IAD (43,350 passengers in 2025). The airport is also looking for airlines that can offer connections beyond their hubs, but not necessarily within the local African market. She cites India as an example.

Ethiopian Airlines, which serves IAD, offers flights to India via Addis Ababa. Kenya Airways (which does not serve IAD) also serves India.

IAD is the airport in North and South America with the largest network in Africa.

Washington Dulles International Airport: The Natural Gateway Between Africa and the United States?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eBbPRm_Ye4

This episode explores how Washington Dulles International Airport is positioning itself as a vital gateway between Africa and the United States.

Featuring Ariana McKnire, Director of Airline Business Development at the Washington Metropolitan Airport Authority, the discussion focuses on developing air links, market opportunities, and the strategic importance of Washington's demographic and geographic advantages for African air connectivity.

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Introduction to Washington Dulles Airport, the US-Africa Gateway

01:38 - Demographics and Market Size in Washington DC

05:09 - Business Climate and Travel Demand

08:31 - Focus on Unserved Routes and Development Prospects

12:21 - Connecting Unserved African Markets

14:52 - South African Airways' Return Plans

16:46 - AviaDev and Strategic Partnerships

19:10 - Ariana's Approach to Route Development

20:12 - Airport-Airline Collaboration for Connectivity

21:15 - Conclusion and Upcoming Events

Resources and Links:

Aviadev Africa: www.aviadev.com

Airbus Market Analysis Report Airbus: https://www.airbus.com/en/about-us/our- ... -in-africa

Washington Dulles International Airport: https://www.mwaa.com/
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Airbus Study: Africa's Connectivity



Exploring Horizons

Study of Unserved Air Routes to, from, and within Sub-Saharan Africa

Volume III

June 2026

https://www.airbus.com/en/about-us/our- ... -in-africa

No new international routes have been added compared to previous editions (some routes were removed and then reinstated). However, the Nairobi-Washington route (which is unlikely to be among the top 10 for 2026) and the London-Entebbe route have been removed (Uganda Airlines operates the Gatwick-Entebbe route). Note that the Harare-Dubai route is a direct flight; Emirates currently offers a flight with two stops via Lusaka.

Ethiopian Airlines remains the leader in capturing traffic on these unserved routes. RwandAir has lost market share due to the closure of the Democratic Republic of Congo to Rwandan flights, which lengthens flight times. Air Tanzania is beginning to tap into the market from Kinshasa (FIH Dubai) and Johannesburg (JNB Mumbai). Middle Eastern airlines remain major players. The largest market share for the European Union is on the Toronto-Lagos route. Royal Air Maroc and Egyptpair represent Africa. For Brussels-South Africa and London-Zanzibar, Ethiopian Airlines and Middle Eastern carriers outperform European Union airlines.

Image
Cape Town-Brussels & Johannesburg-Brussels

The initial market analysis for unserved air routes between Belgium and South Africa was built upon passenger data from October 2022 through September 2023. Whilst the Johannesburg–Brussels city pair was not initially ranked within the top ten unserved routes at that time, the Cape Town–Brussels route demonstrated immediate potential. It accounted for 48% of the total non-directional O&D traffic between the two countries, compared to 45% for Johannesburg and 7% for other regional destinations like Durban, Port Elizabeth, and George.

For the Cape Town–Brussels route, a robust pre-pandemic growth rate was recorded between 2015 and 2019 with a 5.4% CAGR, with post-pandemic traffic recovering swiftly to exceed 2018/2019 benchmarks by over 30% and averaging 2,250 monthly passengers each way by 2023. The post-pandemic market stimulation was accelerated by Air Belgium's twice-weekly A330-900 service via Johannesburg, which operated without eighth freedom rights between Johannesburg and CapeTown.

However, a void was left in the market following Air Belgium's shift away from scheduled passenger operations and its withdrawal from serving both Johannesburg and Cape Town from Brussels in Q3 2023. In the wake of this move, traffic levelled off and slightly declined. The Brussels–Cape Town city pair registered an 8% premium traffic share—positioning it above the Sub-Saharan average—nevertheless, the route remained primarily a leisure and VFR market. During the subsequent October 2023 to September 2024 period, the Johannesburg–Brussels route entered the top unserved rankings.

The traffic displaced by Air Belgium's exit was successfully

Rechannelled onto alternative carriers. Emirates initially led this connectivity transition via an average double daily service to Cape Town that matched its double daily Brussels–Dubai link. Ethiopian Airlines also captured a significant share, offering flights via Addis Ababa and capitalising on its Star Alliance partnership with Lufthansa Group airlines, such as Brussels Airlines. Smaller increases in market presence were also recorded by Turkish Airlines, Qatar Airways, and Lufthansa. Distinct demand profiles characterise the two city pairs. The Cape Town–Brussels route is highly
seasonal, peaking at over 6,000 passengers in November and February–March—aligned with European school holidays and the Southern summer—but dropping to 1,500 passengers in June.

Conversely, Johannesburg–Brussels traffic has a far more stable, year-round baseline driven by business, diplomatic, governmental, and VFR travel. This stability is reflected in a higher minimum monthly volume of 3,000 passengers in June and a peak month of approximately 5,500 passengers,
alongside a notable 11% premium cabin share, again significantly above the Sub-Saharan average. The strategic rationale for establishing non-stop services on both routes is further reinforced by a global traffic analysis between Belgium and South Africa. The chart on the following page shows that while Brussels-Cape Town was the strongest unserved city pair back in the 2023-period, Brussels–Johannesburg is the city pair that has been constantly growing since 2023. All in all, total traffic between Belgium and South Africa has in the meantime grown beyond pre-pandemic levels.

From an air cargo perspective, Ethiopian Airlines operates twice-weekly, non-stop freighter flights from Brussels to Johannesburg. While specific data is unavailable, these flights likely transport high-value pharmaceuticals, signaling strong potential for belly cargo integration if non-stop
passenger operations are introduced. Furthermore, although Ethiopian Airlines does not operate non-stop freighters on the northbound return, South Africa’s robust export of perishables—such as fruit and meat—presents a clear opportunity to establish a northbound belly cargo stream.

The convergence of rising passenger demand and this cargo potential makes a non-stop service between Brussels and South Africa a highly compelling proposition. Brussels Airlines and South African Airways appear best positioned to serve this market, albeit through different operational
strategies. Brussels Airlines could deploy a triangle routing or a non-stop service to Johannesburg with a tag-end flight to Cape Town, mirroring Air Belgium's former approach. Conversely, South African Airways could launch non-stop flights between Brussels and its Johannesburg hub,
connecting passengers onward to Cape Town via its domestic network.

However, securing the appropriate fleet remains both airlines’ primary hurdle. Operating to Johannesburg and Cape Town—located roughly 4,800 and 5,200 nautical miles from Brussels, respectively—demands long-haul aircraft capable of enduring Johannesburg’s challenging high-altitude, hot-weather takeoff conditions. The Airbus A330neo and A350 are both excellent candidates that fulfill these strict performance and range requirements.
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Air France will close its local office in Mali, effective June 30, 2026. Therefore, a resumption of Air France flights to Bamako (BKO) is still a long way off. Flights have been suspended for three years now, at Air France's initiative. This was not appreciated by the Malian authorities, who, in retaliation, refused to approve Air France's return despite several requests to the Malian authorities to resume flights.

Adding to this is the poor Franco-Mali relationship.

https://x.com/saheliens/status/2067173535680778729

Furthermore, Corsair (since late April 2026 till 30Jun26) and Turkish Airlines (till late Oct26) have also suspended their flights to Bamako. This leaves only Tunisair, Royal Air Maroc, Air Senegal, Ethiopian Airlines, and Air Côte d'Ivoire. I am referring here to airlines that offer flights to Europe.

https://www.afrique-sur7.fr/mali-corsai ... d-ses-vols

Air Algérie closed its route at the end of 2024 due to the deteriorating relations between Mali and Algeria, which led to the closure of their airspace. https://www-tsa--algerie-com.translate. ... r_pto=wapp

A good reason to discuss this article below published on May 6, 2026.
In Mali, can African airlines compensate for the absence of Corsair and Turkish Airlines?

The temporary suspension of Corsair and Turkish Airlines' operations is reshaping air links to and from Mali. Now, only a handful of airlines, mainly African, serve the country. https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1793970/ec ... -airlines/


Ethiopian Airlines is the big winner with 150,000 passengers in 2025, in addition to the 20,000 passengers per week transported by its West African subsidiary, Asky. Ethiopian Airlines has also added overnight flights to Bamako.

Air Côte d'Ivoire and Royal Air Maroc are also reaping some benefits. Air Côte d'Ivoire thanks to its daily service to Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG). Same thing for Royal Air Maroc (RAM) on its European routes; the airline operates some flights with the B787-9 instead of the B737-800.

The big loser is Air Senegal, which, due to its unstable network, is struggling to recover traffic. And of course, with fewer flights, prices skyrocket.
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

rwandan-flyer wrote: 10 Apr 2025, 19:06
Is Air Tanzania planning to relaunch three historic destinations? https://www.airtanzania.co.tz/

I just saw that Muscat (Oman), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), and Kigali (Rwanda) appear in the airline's website search engine. I don't know if these are future codeshare destinations or interline agreement destinations (like for India or South Africa). Cairo also appears. But I'll focus on the historic destinations.

Reopenings? Yes, because ADD, MCT, and KGL were among Air Tanzania's first destinations shortly after its creation in the late 1970s following the dissolution of East African Airways (which became Uganda Airlines ver. 1, Air Tanzania, and Kenya Airways). Like here in 1979 https://www.timetableimages.com/ttimage ... e/tc79.htm

These three destinations were served until the early 2000s (May 2005 KGL MCT and ADD timetables appear but no flights https://www.timetableimages.com/i-t/tanzani7.jpg), when Air Tanzania went in bade shape. The routes were supposed to resume in the mid-2000s with the support of South African Airways**, which wanted to create a "golden triangle" hub in Dar Es Salaam (https://www.newvision.co.ug/news/1071046/saa-tz-airline). The three destinations never reopened.
The route to Oman (Muscate MCT) will reopen on July 23, 2026, with 3 flights per week (https://www.instagram.com/p/DZuwY3_loLG/).

Oman Air already operates flights to Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar. The Sultanate of Oman is quietly building a network in East Africa.

Ethiopian Airlines, which serves Muscat, will begin service to Salalah on July 7, 2026 (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity ... 53472-lSZ7). Salamair serves Nairobi and Port Sudan. The airline will begin service to Kigali and Mogadishu this year. Djibouti and Asmara (Eritrea) are expected to be Salamair's next destinations (https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... lamair-ceo)
rwandan-flyer wrote: 11 Jun 2026, 16:26 Airbus Study: Africa's Connectivity



Exploring Horizons

Study of Unserved Air Routes to, from, and within Sub-Saharan Africa

Volume III

June 2026

https://www.airbus.com/en/about-us/our- ... -in-africa

Image

Next Year, London Zanzibar will be probably removed from this Airbus report. TUI will start London Gatwick service for 2027/2028 winter season, with flights (2x/ Week) operated from 3Nov27 to 22Mar28. https://www.tuigroup.com/en/newsroom/ne ... inter-2027

At least it will give time to competitors to provide special offer to avoid losing too many passengers
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

A few weeks ago, reports surfaced about a possible project by Kenya Airways to manage a national airline in Africa.

It will be Ghana Airways, which closed in 2004.
KQ pursues Ghana Airways deal, larger fleet as it awaits strategic investor

Kenya Airways is seeking $1.5bn and partnering with Ghana Airways to establish a multi-hub network, aiming to rival Ethiopian Airlines and secure its long-term revival.

https://www.theafricareport.com/422572/ ... -investor/

Africa Inteeligence has published an article, i have a subscription, I'm going to give you a summary

Well African Intelligence has changed some rules. We can't longer buy an article, and the subscription is now very expansive mostly for Companies, NGO.

However i have one with Africa Report which is member of Jeune Afrique Group.

KQ eyes multi-hub model across Africa, like Ethiopian is doing

They hope that Ghana Airways will start ops in 2027.

Ghana Airways target North America, Middle East, Asia and Europe for long haul and of course West Africa for short and medium haul.

Kenya Airways plans to operate 60 aircraft by 2030 and 100 aircraft by 2035. I guess some of them will be used by Ghana Airways

However, sustaining a multi-hub network and expanding the fleet will depend heavily on KQ securing fresh capital through debt, equity or strategic partnerships. The capital-raising programme is expected to conclude by the first quarter of 2027.
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZDbqxs8joA&t=4266s
June 25, 2026 AviaDev Connectivity Update podcast with Sean Mendis

Join host Jon Howell, Founder and CEO of AviaDev Africa, joined by Regular Guests and Aviation Consultants, Sean Mendis and Behramjee Ghadially as they dive into the latest developments in African aviation.

Sign up to the mailing list https://www.aviadev.com/keep-me-updated

TOPICS:

0:00 Introduction and welcome

3:27 Uganda Airlines’ Mega Boeing order and fleet rebuild

15:42 London Gatwick to Harare to finally be served? Air Zimbabwe looking to deploy a wet leased aircraft, but when?

28:05 TUI’s new Gatwick–Zanzibar route for Winter 2027.

40:17 Emirates to add four additional weekly flights to Accra

48:48 Kenya Airways network cuts. Douala and Abidjan impacted, plus deploying the B777 on a domestic route

57:33 Airlink’s exclusive Cape Town–Mauritius announcement from AviaDev, deploying the Embraer E2

01:08:02 TAAG Angola’s management changes as they launch Luanda–Guangzhou and receive clearance for the 787-9 from EASA

01:20:30 Air Peace’s ambitious intra-Africa growth plans, approvals to launch Brazil and could Manchester be this year’s new route of the year?

01:31:57 ASKY’s intra-African network adjustments

01:37:41 Air Tanzania’s Muscat service and 787 deployment on Cape Town

01:40:49 Discover, Edelweiss, and Condor’s Namibia capacity growth

Topics discussed:

African aviation route development
Airline network strategy
Long-haul and intra-African connectivity
Fleet planning and aircraft deployment
Market demand, yields, and fifth freedom traffic
New route announcements and capacity changes


If you follow African aviation news, airline route launches, airport connectivity, and network planning, this episode is for you.

#AfricanAviation #AviaDev #AirlineNews #AviationNews #RouteDevelopment #AirlineStrategy #ConnectivityUpdate #UgandaAirlines #AirZimbabwe #Emirates #KenyaAirways #Airlink #AirPeace #ASKY #AirTanzania #Namibia
Chapters
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Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

On 24Jun26, a Ebola response worker who traveled from DRC to France who traveled with Air France has tested postive.

Air France canceled on 24 and 25Jun26. But for tomorrow (26Jun26), but FR24 shows flight canceled, AF website shows no flight planned on 26Jun26 (next flight on 27Jun26), but Paris Airport website show a flight.

Depends the day it's AF754 (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af754) or AF722 (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af722)

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/24/worl ... la-patient

------------------------------------------------------

IndiGo is expected to launch service to Tanzania in October 2026. Indigo's East Africa manager is currently in Tanzania

https://thebizlens.co.tz/2026/06/25/tca ... -tanzania/

This will be its third destination in East Africa. IndiGo currently serves Nairobi and the Seychelles. In Africa, it also serves Mauritius and Réunion (French Overseas Dept).

It is interesting to note that IndiGo has been relatively quiet about plans for Africa (unlike Europe where Paris, Geneva and Brussels are often cited as next destinations). However, it appears the airline has set its sights on the continent. I wouldn't be surprised to see them launch routes to Uganda, Nigeria, Egypt, or Zambia using their A321XLR fleet—even though some of these countries are already connected to India via their national carriers.

These countries have strong point-to-point demand with India—demand that rivals the point-to-point traffic between certain European countries and India.

Point to point in 2025

Nairobi–Mumbai: 142,000 passengers :shock: :shock:
Dar–Mumbai: 63,000
Cairo–Mumbai: 61,000 passengers
Entebbe–Mumbai: 51,000 passengers
Lagos–Mumbai: 42,000 passengers
Lusaka–Mumbai: 32,000 passengers
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