Orders at Dubai Air Show (13-17 Nov 2011)

[sn26567]

The Dubai Air Show will open in less than 48 hours. Despite the world crisis, it promises to be a big show and some large aircraft orders are expected:

• Qatar Airways with Airbus (5 A380 and 80 A320NEO),
• Emirates with Boeing (50 B777),
• the leasing company Alafco with Airbus (expansion of the former order of 30 A320NEO),
• etc.

I have opened this thread to enable everyone to report the sales and other important news at Dubai.

[Boeing767copilot]

A source at Dubai told me this week that Emirates will sign at Dubai Air Show an agreement for another 30 A380s

[RoMax]

e a

A source at Dubai told me this week that Emirates will sign at Dubai Air Show an agreement for another 30 A380s

That's also one of the rumoured orders indeed. And with Emirates you never know...but I think this would be a bit overkill...they already have 90 on order and some countries still deny the A380 (like India) or limit the amount of A380's that are allowed (like China).

[pdxlight]

Qatar Airways with Airbus (5 A380 and 80 A320NEO)

I believe it's 5 A380s and "only" 50 NEOs, no?

A source at Dubai told me this week that Emirates will sign at Dubai Air Show an agreement for another 30 A380s

They're apparently looking at 30-50 777s, haven't heard anything about another potential A380 order which, imo, would be rather premature. Not to mention they still have some 70+ A380s outstanding!

[RoMax]

When asked about possible 777 orders at the show, Boeing declined to comment on the specifics, but said they hoped to announce several orders during the next 4 days.

And personally I also hope one or some customers of the 737MAX announce their commitment or maybe already a firm order. As you can read in the topic about Pegasus, Boeing has now already 700 commitments of 9 customers (of wich we only know AA for 100 frames). They hope to turn at least some of these into firm contracts by the end of this year or early 2012. Before it was difficult to sign firm contracts as they didn't knew enough about the planned performance for the 737MAX wich has to be included in the firm contracts.

[sn26567]

Qatar Airways with Airbus (5 A380 and 80 A320NEO)

I believe it's 5 A380s and "only" 50 NEOs, no?

These are speculations, so the figures can vary according to the source. We'll know the actual figures at the end of the show!

[sn26567]

The Emirates press conference will start soon. Boeing and GE are already in the room, so the 777 chances are looking positive...

[sn26567]

Emirates orders 50 B777-300ER aircraft, the largest 777 order in history:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=46142

[RoMax]

If this order is firmed, this is the best year ever for the 777. They now have 182 orders, compared to 154 in 2005 (the previous record year). BTW, Emirates also took 20 extra options.

BTW, it's not only the biggest 777 order, but it's also the biggest order ever for Boeing based on value (in dollar). Catalog price would be around 18 billion dollar, of course Emirates is not going to pay even anything close to that.

Interesting that Emirates has 61 B77W's in service and 90 (!) on order now. It seems they really like the A380 and the B77W.

[tsv]

I have a strong suspicion this will not end well for Emirates. Their orders imply they are assuming massive increase in demand and, more importantly, unrestricted access to foreign markets. But neither can be guaranteed.

Blind Freddy can see that Europe and North America will struggle to achieve any meaningful economic growth during most of the next decade, they simply have too much debt. Africa may develop a bit but I can't see too many new Routes available that will support flights by 777's and certainly not A380's. Australia has been a good market for EK but is close to saturation point and in fact they have already had to reduce capacity to SYD. Doubtful they would be granted more flights anyway given the concerns of QF, except maybe a daily to ADL.

That only leaves South America, Asia and the Middle East itself. I'm sure they will add a few more flights to South America but most growth in demand will probably be within South America itself rather than long haul Intercontinental. Plus DXB is not so well situated to offer connections to/from South America anyway, except to Middle East/Central Asia.

Most demand increase is forecast to come from Asia. Here EK will no doubt get a nice slice of the cake. But expect China, Japan and others to protect their own carriers and limit market leakage to the Middle Eastern Carriers. I would also expect a lot of the new traffic to be from South East Asia to North Asia which obviously can't be served efficiently by EK.

As for local Middle Eastern traffic, EK is not really set up for short haul, this is best left to the likes of Fly Dubai.

So I predict that at some point EK will need to cancel many orders or set up a Leasing Company and flog the Planes off to someone else. The bubble that has been growing for years will eventually pop, probably in spectacular fashion.

[RoMax]

I also have doubts about Emirates plans, I already had these doubts at the time they expanded their A380 order to 90. I really wonder what they plan to do, but it indeed seems this may not end good for them.

But for the 77W's there can be something in it...at some moment Emirates said they plan to retire all their aircraft when they are at the age of 10 year. If I'm correct the oldest 77W's in their fleet were delivered in 2005. So by the time all these 90 77W's are being delivered a siginificant part of it will be older than 10 year. So these will be probably replaced by the newer 77W's. And I suspect that Emirates made an arrangement with Boeing that they can change (a part of) their 77W orders into orders for the new versions of the 777 wich Boeing is planning (probably by the end of this decade).
For sure this is not all about expansion, as Emirates said themself at the press conferention. A significant part of the order is intended to replace older aircraft.

But still I have doubts about their plans...if this ends in a disaster this is not only bad for Boeing, but also for Airbus (and in special the A380 program)...

or set up a Leasing Company and flog the Planes off to someone else.

What about DAE...they have some shareholders is common and DAE already has the new freighters of Emirates (the 777F and 748F) under its wings. In the beginning Emirates ordered the 748F's themself, but they sold them to DAE and decided to lease them back.
If Emirates will decide to lease of a part of their fleet it will be trough DAE wich is largely in the hands of the Dubai owned companies.

[Flanker]

I have a strong suspicion this will not end well for Emirates. Their orders imply they are assuming massive increase in demand and, more importantly, unrestricted access to foreign markets. But neither can be guaranteed.

I also have doubts about Emirates plans, I already had these doubts at the time they expanded their A380 order to 90. I really wonder what they plan to do, but it indeed seems this may not end good for them.

When I woke up this morning and read about the B777 order, I had the same thoughts as you.
I rinsed my face and thought back about it and it's all very clear.

EK has 60 aircraft to retire in this decade.
Looking at airfleets, it looks like 27 A332's, 18 A340's, 15 B777's will reach at least 15 years of age by 2020, which by EK standards is old.

EK already has 70 A350XWB orders to support such phase-out.

So where do these additional 50+20 B77W's and all the A380's fit and how do they intend to pay for them?

1. EK is expecting delays in deliveries of their A350XWB's. Such delays will generate compensation that will partially pay for cheap B77W's.
Just a few days ago it became apparent that the XWB's are already running behind schedule. It's only a matter of time before lengthy delays are announced.

2. EK expects to become a market leader and to force a lot of competitors out of business in the next 10 years. In India alone, Air India, Kingfisher, Jet Airways are walking on thin ice. This is the reason why the Indian government is banning the EK A380's from India. EK will certainly wreak havoc in Europe as well.

3. The Middle-East is investing in aviation (airlines and airports) as a way of diversifying its income. These countries collect only small amounts of taxes. Government business is run mainly from oil income. Oil is a finite resource and no one knows it better than them that someday it's going to end.

4. There are still open markets out there and I wouldn't be surprised if EK would start operating hubs outside of DXB. EK has the money and with money comes power.
I think that EK would be very interested to establish a hub somewhere in West Africa and I wouldn't be surprised if that would be DKR, together with their partner Senegal Airlines, at the new Dakar airport.
Dakar has a very strategic position for North America-Africa and Europe-South America traffic.

They're betting big, that's for sure.
But their strategy isn't random, they have focus and they know where they're going.

[sn26567]

On the second day of the Dubai Air Show, Oman Air ordered 6 Boeing 787-8 Dreamliners. Not really a new order, but a transfer of an existing order from Kuwait-based leasing company ALAFCO to Oman Air.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=46147

[sn26567]

NordStar Airlines commits to 3 more ATR 42-600s

Russia's NordStar Airlines signed a contract with ATR for the purchase of three more firm ATR 42-600s, adding to an agreement inked in September for two firm ATR 42-600s and two options. The total value of the seven aircraft is estimated at $132 million.

NordStar will become the first operator of a new ATR -600 series aircraft in the Russian Federation.

ALAFCO ups A320neo commitment

Aviation Lease and Finance Co. (ALAFCO) has finalized an order for 50 Airbus A320neos and has taken options for 30 more. The contract, which was signed Monday at the Dubai Airshow, is an increase from ALAFCO's initial commitment for 30 A320neos announced in an MOU at the Paris Air Show in June (ATW Daily News, June 22).

[sn26567]

CFM says that the LEAP engine is on track for entry into service (EIS) in 2016 on the A320neo and the C919 and in 2017 on the Boeing 737MAX (P&W will be first on the A320neo which has a 2015 EIS). CFM says has booked orders and commitments for nearly 2,660 LEAP engines for more than $32 billion.

CFM says also that Boeing formally selects LEAP-1B with 68-inch fan as sole 737MAX engine; the design will be optimised in 2012.

[Toutpti]

According to sources I can rely on : "EK isn't able to pay for their 17th 380 ! They have ordered 90 of it but the 16th is staying for now 5months at Hamburg waiting for delivery"

The situation is obvious: they aim for big, but they are running out of cash ... they want to expand a little bit too fast I guess so .

Greetings,

Laurent

[cathay belgium]

As a gift to the luchtzak members for the coming anniversary of luchtzak,
we definately need a 'LIKE' button here

The news of EK running out of cash : definately LIKE haha !

CX-B

[Boeing767copilot]

Spirit Airlines (US) signed today at the Dubai Airshow a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for 75 single-aisle aircraft, comprising 45 A320neo aircraft and 30 A320s.

[Boeing767copilot]

Qatar Airways selects 50 Airbus A320neo and 5 additional A380s

[tsv]

According to sources I can rely on : "EK isn't able to pay for their 17th 380 ! They have ordered 90 of it but the 16th is staying for now 5months at Hamburg waiting for delivery"

The situation is obvious: they aim for big, but they are running out of cash ... they want to expand a little bit too fast I guess so .
Greetings,

Laurent

LoL but I'm not sure I'd bet my life on your sources! I think they will run out of $ one day but maybe not the day after they order 50 x 777's!

I (sort of) like Flankers idea of a West African Hub. I tried to think of a secondary hub for them myself but was looking the wrong way. I say "sort of" because Dakar is great Geographically. Economically I'm not convinced, at least yet. If West Africa develops and Western Companies arrive with Mining & Financial services then a hub will make good $. But at current levels of foreign investment I don't think it would be viable.

Whichever way they play it Emirates needs to pull a Rabbit from the hat to successfully deploy all the Aircraft on order. Just adding more routes from DXB won't fill 90 A380's & 100+ 777's & A350's.