brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

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Airbus330lover
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Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by Airbus330lover »

sean1982 wrote:
Airbus330lover wrote:
sean1982 wrote:What's the problem? Is this a topic about market share or not?

Or is anything that you dont like "nursery stuff"?
Yes but...market share @ BRU not Belgium
Why? That doesnt make any sense? It's not that belgium is big enough to consider different catchment area's.
That would mean that SN wouldnt have to care about what FR does in CRL, if they only care about BRU
Simply because it's another subject.

Stij
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Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by Stij »

sean1982 wrote:I only have those figures from centre of aviation, sorry :/
That's a pity...

Cheers,

Stij

Inquirer
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Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by Inquirer »

good morning,

nice to see a discussion which goes beyond just the slogans, in which one -at least tries to- quantify claims. However, as Stij has already mentioned, there are
Stij wrote:Lies, damn lies and statistics!!!
Whenever statistics are brought into the discussion, rather than immediately start discussing what those figures mean and go as far as to draw sensational conclusions from it even, it's always a good idea to carefully check their exact source and find out more about the reference parameters used to come up with those statistics in the first place, as it may show to be far more interesting to the discussion than the figures themselves.

First of all,
it's always interesting to read footnotes below any diagram presented to you to better understand it.
In this particular case for instance, it immediately shows that what Sean repeatedly refers to as "CAPA figures" are in fact figures copied straight from a Ryanair presentation, so if you excuse me, I'd prefer to call them just the RYANAIR figures then, rather than the CAPA figures like Sean does. (*)
Especially in the light of what comes next, this is important.
(*) It's actually fairly obvious too when you look at the lay-out of the diagram and compare it to other diagrams in the same article.

Secondly,
as to the relevance of those figures itself for this discussion at hand -and with the year 2015 not nearly finished yet-, it's interesting to try to find out what is being used as basis to calculate those figures with.
It's not explicitly mentioned anywhere, but given 2015 isn't fininshed yet, it can at present be nothing but a best efforts prediction, so I take it it must be something like 'seating capacity' offered.
If that is the case, then I assume the same is also used for the 2014 data, yet then a big problem pops up!
Indeed, as you can see, according to the Ryanair data CAPA copy-pasted without questioning, they've also put themselves at the number 1 position for 2014 too, but given that year is already well behind us, it's actually fairly easy to crosscheck whether or not they were indeed the biggest airline in Belgium in number of seats offered, and there it shows they can't have been, for the simple reason Ryanair wasn't even the biggest airline in Belgium in number of passengers flown AND they are known to have a much higher load factor ratio than anyone else.

Thirdly,
If we look back at the footnote of the Ryanair diagram, we can see it's actually based on statistical data gathered in 2013 and 2014 already, so my personal take is this is in fact a fairly old Ryanair diagram from 2014 (or before), meaning it is well preceding the start of the explosive growth phase of Brussels Airlines.
CAPA may still be copy-pasting it now because it is all they have available at present, but that doesn't mean it's still reflecting the current situation: in fact we can fairly easily prove it isn't by simply pointing out the very apparent error in the 2014 ranking!

Finally,
given the diagram is showing Ryanair's best effort predictions and expectations for the years 2014 and 2015 as they must have seen it in 2013/ 2014, it adds evidence to the fact that indeed the sudden strategic reorientation and subseqsuent explosive growth of Brussels Airlines indeed must have caught them by complete surprise: it even costed them the number one position they openly claimed at the start of 2014 for instance, and based on partial data for 2015, it seems the gap between the number 1 and the number 2 on the Belgian market may very well be widening even. CAPA may have to urgently review a paragraph or 2 in its otherwise interesting article. :ugeek:

brusselsairlinesfan
Posts: 916
Joined: 29 Mar 2007, 14:44

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by brusselsairlinesfan »

Inquirer wrote:good morning,

nice to see a discussion which goes beyond just the slogans, in which one -at least tries to- quantify claims. However, as Stij has already mentioned, there are
Stij wrote:Lies, damn lies and statistics!!!
Whenever statistics are brought into the discussion, rather than immediately start discussing what those figures mean and go as far as to draw sensational conclusions from it even, it's always a good idea to carefully check their exact source and find out more about the reference parameters used to come up with those statistics in the first place, as it may show to be far more interesting to the discussion than the figures themselves.

First of all,
it's always interesting to read footnotes below any diagram presented to you to better understand it.
In this particular case for instance, it immediately shows that what Sean repeatedly refers to as "CAPA figures" are in fact figures copied straight from a Ryanair presentation, so if you excuse me, I'd prefer to call them just the RYANAIR figures then, rather than the CAPA figures like Sean does. (*)
Especially in the light of what comes next, this is important.
(*) It's actually fairly obvious too when you look at the lay-out of the diagram and compare it to other diagrams in the same article.

Secondly,
as to the relevance of those figures itself for this discussion at hand -and with the year 2015 not nearly finished yet-, it's interesting to try to find out what is being used as basis to calculate those figures with.
It's not explicitly mentioned anywhere, but given 2015 isn't fininshed yet, it can at present be nothing but a best efforts prediction, so I take it it must be something like 'seating capacity' offered.
If that is the case, then I assume the same is also used for the 2014 data, yet then a big problem pops up!
Indeed, as you can see, according to the Ryanair data CAPA copy-pasted without questioning, they've also put themselves at the number 1 position for 2014 too, but given that year is already well behind us, it's actually fairly easy to crosscheck whether or not they were indeed the biggest airline in Belgium in number of seats offered, and there it shows they can't have been, for the simple reason Ryanair wasn't even the biggest airline in Belgium in number of passengers flown AND they are known to have a much higher load factor ratio than anyone else.

Thirdly,
If we look back at the footnote of the Ryanair diagram, we can see it's actually based on statistical data gathered in 2013 and 2014 already, so my personal take is this is in fact a fairly old Ryanair diagram from 2014 (or before), meaning it is well preceding the start of the explosive growth phase of Brussels Airlines.
CAPA may still be copy-pasting it now because it is all they have available at present, but that doesn't mean it's still reflecting the current situation: in fact we can fairly easily prove it isn't by simply pointing out the very apparent error in the 2014 ranking!

Finally,
given the diagram is showing Ryanair's best effort predictions and expectations for the years 2014 and 2015 as they must have seen it in 2013/ 2014, it adds evidence to the fact that indeed the sudden strategic reorientation and subseqsuent explosive growth of Brussels Airlines indeed must have caught them by complete surprise: it even costed them the number one position they openly claimed at the start of 2014 for instance, and based on partial data for 2015, it seems the gap between the number 1 and the number 2 on the Belgian market may very well be widening even. CAPA may have to urgently review a paragraph or 2 in its otherwise interesting article. :ugeek:

Thanks very much for your very intersting contribution to this topic!

Meanwhile, any idea on the 2014 figures for :

- AF @ CDG & ORY + overall France
- BA @ LHR & LGW + overall UK
- LH @ FRA & MUC + overall Germany
- KL @ AMS + overall Netherlands
- AZ @ FCO & MXP/LIN + overall Spain
- IB @ MAD & BCN + overall Spain
- LX @ ZRH & GVA + overall Switzerland
- OS @ VIE + overall Austria
- TP @ LIS & OPO + overall Portugal
- SK @ CPH, ARN, OSL + overall Scandinavia
- AY @ HEL + overall Finland
- EI @ DUB + overall Ireland

... just to compare how "national"/historical airlines do perform nowadays @ their respective home bases.

Even estimations would be much appreciated...

Regarding Belgium, the last FR figures for both CRL and BRU would be appreciated to complete the above analysis...

Vincent

-

OO-ITR
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Joined: 13 Aug 2011, 18:29

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by OO-ITR »

brusselsairlinesfan wrote:
Regarding Belgium, the last FR figures for both CRL and BRU would be appreciated to complete the above analysis...

Vincent

-
Use your energy for something else. You will never see them....

brusselsairlinesfan
Posts: 916
Joined: 29 Mar 2007, 14:44

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by brusselsairlinesfan »

OO-ITR wrote:
brusselsairlinesfan wrote:
Regarding Belgium, the last FR figures for both CRL and BRU would be appreciated to complete the above analysis...

Vincent

-
Use your energy for something else. You will never see them....
But why being so "secret"?!

convair
Posts: 1944
Joined: 18 Nov 2011, 00:02

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by convair »

brusselsairlinesfan wrote:
OO-ITR wrote:
brusselsairlinesfan wrote:
Regarding Belgium, the last FR figures for both CRL and BRU would be appreciated to complete the above analysis...

Vincent

-
Use your energy for something else. You will never see them....
But why being so "secret"?!
The figures are the basis for your next move. And anticipating your next move is your competitor's best way to undercut you.

sean1982
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Joined: 18 Mar 2003, 00:00
Contact:

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by sean1982 »

Inquirer wrote:good morning,

nice to see a discussion which goes beyond just the slogans, in which one -at least tries to- quantify claims. However, as Stij has already mentioned, there are
Stij wrote:Lies, damn lies and statistics!!!
Whenever statistics are brought into the discussion, rather than immediately start discussing what those figures mean and go as far as to draw sensational conclusions from it even, it's always a good idea to carefully check their exact source and find out more about the reference parameters used to come up with those statistics in the first place, as it may show to be far more interesting to the discussion than the figures themselves.

First of all,
it's always interesting to read footnotes below any diagram presented to you to better understand it.
In this particular case for instance, it immediately shows that what Sean repeatedly refers to as "CAPA figures" are in fact figures copied straight from a Ryanair presentation, so if you excuse me, I'd prefer to call them just the RYANAIR figures then, rather than the CAPA figures like Sean does. (*)
Especially in the light of what comes next, this is important.
(*) It's actually fairly obvious too when you look at the lay-out of the diagram and compare it to other diagrams in the same article.

Secondly,
as to the relevance of those figures itself for this discussion at hand -and with the year 2015 not nearly finished yet-, it's interesting to try to find out what is being used as basis to calculate those figures with.
It's not explicitly mentioned anywhere, but given 2015 isn't fininshed yet, it can at present be nothing but a best efforts prediction, so I take it it must be something like 'seating capacity' offered.
If that is the case, then I assume the same is also used for the 2014 data, yet then a big problem pops up!
Indeed, as you can see, according to the Ryanair data CAPA copy-pasted without questioning, they've also put themselves at the number 1 position for 2014 too, but given that year is already well behind us, it's actually fairly easy to crosscheck whether or not they were indeed the biggest airline in Belgium in number of seats offered, and there it shows they can't have been, for the simple reason Ryanair wasn't even the biggest airline in Belgium in number of passengers flown AND they are known to have a much higher load factor ratio than anyone else.

Thirdly,
If we look back at the footnote of the Ryanair diagram, we can see it's actually based on statistical data gathered in 2013 and 2014 already, so my personal take is this is in fact a fairly old Ryanair diagram from 2014 (or before), meaning it is well preceding the start of the explosive growth phase of Brussels Airlines.
CAPA may still be copy-pasting it now because it is all they have available at present, but that doesn't mean it's still reflecting the current situation: in fact we can fairly easily prove it isn't by simply pointing out the very apparent error in the 2014 ranking!

Finally,
given the diagram is showing Ryanair's best effort predictions and expectations for the years 2014 and 2015 as they must have seen it in 2013/ 2014, it adds evidence to the fact that indeed the sudden strategic reorientation and subseqsuent explosive growth of Brussels Airlines indeed must have caught them by complete surprise: it even costed them the number one position they openly claimed at the start of 2014 for instance, and based on partial data for 2015, it seems the gap between the number 1 and the number 2 on the Belgian market may very well be widening even. CAPA may have to urgently review a paragraph or 2 in its otherwise interesting article. :ugeek:
And where are the official figures to back your claims? There arent even any FR figures available besides the CAPA ones (who, contrary to what you state, not just blindly copy paste)

airazurxtror
Posts: 3769
Joined: 17 Nov 2005, 00:00

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by airazurxtror »

http://www.brusselsairlines.com/en-be/c ... story.aspx

The history of Brussels Airlines dates back to 2002 when mother company SN Airholding was created by a group of about 40 investors.
The new company was called SN Brussels Airlines, and it posted its first positive results already in 2003.
Brussels Airlines is backed up by some 80 years of Belgian aeronautical experience.


Brussels Airlines is thus at Brussels since 13 years (claiming 80 years of experience).
Ryanair is at Brussels since february 2014, I think.
In less than one and a half year, Ryanair has already got quite a good share of the market at Brussels.
Not yet the first place ?
Indeed - just give them time !
IF IT AIN'T BOEING, I'M NOT GOING.

Passenger
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Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by Passenger »

airazurxtror wrote:In less than one and a half year, Ryanair has already got quite a good share of the market at Brussels. Not yet the first place ? Indeed - just give them time !
Take all the time you need. But you are light years away from the veni vidi vici that you've announced for Brussels - you even didn't announced your visit to the host. Very impolite!

Actually, that arrogance of O'Leary is the reason why you won't get more then just "a good share of the market". O'Leary humiliated Brussels Airlines, and that gave Brussels Airlines the drive for a counter attack that will now be copy/pasted by other airlines on other major airports you want to conquer. You thaught that Brussels Airlines and Jetairfly couldn't and wouldn't lower their prices, but they did. On behalf of all Belgian tourists flying Brussels Airlines and Jetairfly (*), I have to thank you for that.

(edited: I didn't include Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium here, because they still focus as airline of touroperator Thomas Cook).

OO-ITR
Posts: 688
Joined: 13 Aug 2011, 18:29

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by OO-ITR »

airazurxtror wrote:In less than one and a half year, Ryanair has already got quite a good share of the market at Brussels.
Not yet the first place ?
Indeed - just give them time !
oh god...yawn...how original this Ryanair promotalk...yawn.
When Ryanair arrived in BRU some were saying (or hoping) that Brussels Airlines wouldn't be there after one year...Well I have news for you Ryanair cheerleader...WE ARE STILL THERE!!!

airazurxtror
Posts: 3769
Joined: 17 Nov 2005, 00:00

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by airazurxtror »

Passenger wrote: You thaught that Brussels Airlines and Jetairfly couldn't and wouldn't lower their prices, but they did. On behalf of all Belgian tourists flying Brussels Airlines and Jetairfly (*), I have to thank you for that.
Indeed, one should thank Ryanair for its low prices and for making Brussels Airlines lower its prices.
For instance, those famous "69 euros fares" only appeared thanks to the Ryanair arrival at Brussels.
It remains to be seen if a high-cost airline like SN can make a profit on low fares - but that is another story, and not our problem.
IF IT AIN'T BOEING, I'M NOT GOING.

sean1982
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Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by sean1982 »

Passenger wrote:
airazurxtror wrote:In less than one and a half year, Ryanair has already got quite a good share of the market at Brussels. Not yet the first place ? Indeed - just give them time !
Take all the time you need. But you are light years away from the veni vidi vici that you've announced for Brussels - you even didn't announced your visit to the host. Very impolite!

Actually, that arrogance of O'Leary is the reason why you won't get more then just "a good share of the market". O'Leary humiliated Brussels Airlines, and that gave Brussels Airlines the drive for a counter attack that will now be copy/pasted by other airlines on other major airports you want to conquer. You thaught that Brussels Airlines and Jetairfly couldn't and wouldn't lower their prices, but they did. On behalf of all Belgian tourists flying Brussels Airlines and Jetairfly (*), I have to thank you for that.

(edited: I didn't include Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium here, because they still focus as airline of touroperator Thomas Cook).
Yes, and seeing how yields have dropped dramatically on routes in direct competition with FR and VY ... I wouldn't be to happy about that.

Inquirer
Posts: 2095
Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by Inquirer »

sean1982 wrote: And where are the official figures to back your claims? There arent even any FR figures available besides the CAPA ones
I am not sure I understand that remark of yours very well, Sean?

Are you saying that the official passenger numbers over 2014 of both Brussels Airlines and Ryanair (in Belgium) are still not publically known? They are and they show that -in hindsight- Ryanair isn't holding the bigger portion of the market from Belgium after all. It's not just a claim as you say, it's a simple fact.

Going from there, saying that 2015 hasn't brought much change to this yet is fairly easy because contrary to last year, CRL has restarted posting regular operational results again as they are happy to be able to announce renewed growth, just as BRU and Brussels Airlines post their operational results regularly.
Thanks to the renewed openness of CRL one gets enough variables to combine them in a linear function and get a perfectly clear picture of who's in the lead, even without need for the individual numbers of ryanair itself.

Indeed, think about it for a second:

IF A > B (both being positive) AND X > Y , THEN A.X > B.Y

A being the growth rate of Brussels Airlines so far, which is known
B being the growth rate of Ryanair so far, which is known since -at best- it equals that of CRL due to market size
X is the passenger count of Brussels Airlines so far, which is known
Y is the passenger count of Ryanair so far, which is unknown, but unneeded to prove the above mathematical relationship.


I understand the eagerness to be the biggest player on the market and I know that back in 2014, it seemed a given that such would be achieved by year's end, but when all was said and done by DEC 31st, it just wasn't the case and 2015 still isn't going to bring it, or so it seems.
I'd like to stress that pointing this out to you shouldn't be seen as some sort of a personal attack, it's just painting the most recent situation by reference to all available current data and making use of some elementary math to combine them into a clear trend, which is as was said before.

OO-ITR
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Joined: 13 Aug 2011, 18:29

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by OO-ITR »

sean1982 wrote:
Passenger wrote:
airazurxtror wrote:In less than one and a half year, Ryanair has already got quite a good share of the market at Brussels. Not yet the first place ? Indeed - just give them time !
Take all the time you need. But you are light years away from the veni vidi vici that you've announced for Brussels - you even didn't announced your visit to the host. Very impolite!

Actually, that arrogance of O'Leary is the reason why you won't get more then just "a good share of the market". O'Leary humiliated Brussels Airlines, and that gave Brussels Airlines the drive for a counter attack that will now be copy/pasted by other airlines on other major airports you want to conquer. You thaught that Brussels Airlines and Jetairfly couldn't and wouldn't lower their prices, but they did. On behalf of all Belgian tourists flying Brussels Airlines and Jetairfly (*), I have to thank you for that.

(edited: I didn't include Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium here, because they still focus as airline of touroperator Thomas Cook).
Yes, and seeing how yields have dropped dramatically on routes in direct competition with FR and VY ... I wouldnt be to happy about that.
OO-ITR wrote: oh god...yawn...how original this Ryanair promotalk...yawn.
When Ryanair arrived in BRU some were saying (or hoping) that Brussels Airlines wouldn't be there after one year...Well I have news for you Ryanair cheerleader...WE ARE STILL THERE!!!
Who said that where and when?
And another thing about the yields dropping on route where the low cost is also operational. Where is this info about Ryanair routes? I rest my case!
Yes and don't come now with an answer 'Oh but we are doing very well in BRU...'.
I don't want to be a hypocrite : I want to see proof !!!

sean1982
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Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by sean1982 »

Oh, and another one ... i dont need to prove how well FR is doing. For every POTENTIAL (going on what some are claiming here) loss in BRU, there would be 6 profitable in CRL. 1 billion EUR profit is enough proof I would say ;)

And again, who said that where and when?
I have tried to stay constructive in this topic, obviously that seems to be impossible with certain people
Have a good day!

Inquirer
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Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by Inquirer »

Although it actually may better suit another topic in the news section, I nevertheless post this link here as its directly relates to this discussion and so it belongs here too.
http://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/luchtvaar ... 1434520036
For those without access I give a brief transcript in my own words: current market share indeed doesn't put them at the number one position after all, but they say they will grow a lot next year (mostly in CRL it seems at first sight) and are happy with their split operations in Belgium.

Since its not the first time they come with quotes which nicely feed a heated discussion, one would almost think they read along and feel the need to adjust the picture painted, don't you, or at least some journalist does and gives them a call to ask for their view?
Big thumbs up for the prestige of the forum and all of those who work hard in their free time to make something interesting from all that is posted here; good to see we thus managed to conclusively settle a big debate for once, although the topic is actually about just BRU, not Belgium as a whole. ;)

Stij
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Location: Belgium

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by Stij »

May I wrap up a bit this topic:

Thank-you Ryanair for coming to Brussels and to (involuntary) awakening SN and JAF, leading to lower fares and growth.
FR isn't market leader by far on the BRU market, but the race is close for the Belgian market with SN probably (no FR data available) leading.
Both SN and FR have growth plans for the future, SN at BRU, FR at both BRU and CRL.

A personal experience to prove to illustrate the above: last time I flew FR from BRU I was surprised by the number of Dutch on the plane. So lower fares at BRU expanded the catchment area of the airport (as seen in CRL before), so the cake gets bigger for everybody.

Cheers,

Stij

Inquirer
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Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by Inquirer »

Hi stij,
I fully support your conclusions, I just would like to add 2 footnotes which are not to be seen as a personal attack, just to make them more correct even.
1_ let's not forget RyanAir came to BRU only because they felt attacked by vueling.
Just like Jetair and Brussels, they too only change when under threat.
(cfr the product improvement program)
IOW: the credit should actually go to them, I think.
2_ about all those foreign passengers that come to our Belgian airports; should they really be included in figures about the Belgian market share?

Stij
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Joined: 07 Mar 2005, 00:00
Location: Belgium

Re: brussels airlines (SN) market share @ Brussels airport (BRU)

Post by Stij »

Inquirer,

1. I agree
2. I think we have no choice but to include them. Otherwise we would have to add to our calculations Belgians boarding in DUS, CDG, AMS, LIL and MST and then we can't calculate anything anymore.

Cheers,

Stij

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