Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

[oscartango]

I also think SN should diversify its long-haul destinations at some point, next to Africa. For example Thai didn’t flew for a few years to Belgium, but since the comeback they can fill up their planes pretty well.

Never understood why SN is not filling in clear long haul-gaps out of Brussels instead of leaving it all to Emirates, Turkish and the rest of the Lufthansa Group.

[Conti764]

I also think SN should diversify its long-haul destinations at some point, next to Africa. For example Thai didn’t flew for a few years to Belgium, but since the comeback they can fill up their planes pretty well.

Never understood why SN is not filling in clear long haul-gaps out of Brussels instead of leaving it all to Emirates, Turkish and the rest of the Lufthansa Group.

I don't think SN has the liberty to fly where-ever they want.

[VoloperTe]

Good morning,

The question is, WHEN will Brussels Airlines finally leave that cursed LH group ??!!
We all know that LH is only interested in Swiss, Edelweiss, Discover, Condor and Eurowings (deutsche...) !

It's time for Brussels Airlines to find another alliance or partner. Get rid of all that useless German management !

For a strong international brand and a better network.

[luchtzak]

It’s not that SN has a choice leaving LH Group …

[Lux_avi]

Good morning,

The question is, WHEN will Brussels Airlines finally leave that cursed LH group ??!!
We all know that LH is only interested in Swiss, Edelweiss, Discover, Condor and Eurowings (deutsche...) !

It's time for Brussels Airlines to find another alliance or partner. Get rid of all that useless German management !

For a strong international brand and a better network.

SN is way too small to be standing alone.
They would be dead or have no future at all without the LH group, perhaps some people could keep that in mind before bashing the LH group.

[oldblueeyes]

Good morning,

The question is, WHEN will Brussels Airlines finally leave that cursed LH group ??!!
We all know that LH is only interested in Swiss, Edelweiss, Discover, Condor and Eurowings (deutsche...) !

It's time for Brussels Airlines to find another alliance or partner. Get rid of all that useless German management !

For a strong international brand and a better network.

You realisze that Condor is a competitor to Lufthansa Group?

Regarding your question, nobody limits a Belgian patriotic group to raise money and make Lufthansa an offer it can't refuse.

Personally i doubt that rational investors would do it. The stupid ones can try Air Belgium for the 2nd time.

[lumumba]

I also think SN should diversify its long-haul destinations at some point, next to Africa. For example Thai didn’t flew for a few years to Belgium, but since the comeback they can fill up their planes pretty well.

Never understood why SN is not filling in clear long haul-gaps out of Brussels instead of leaving it all to Emirates, Turkish and the rest of the Lufthansa Group.

But Thai has a big hub in Bangkok SN could never compete on this route!!!

[Atlantis]

I also think SN should diversify its long-haul destinations at some point, next to Africa. For example Thai didn’t flew for a few years to Belgium, but since the comeback they can fill up their planes pretty well.

Never understood why SN is not filling in clear long haul-gaps out of Brussels instead of leaving it all to Emirates, Turkish and the rest of the Lufthansa Group.

But Thai has a big hub in Bangkok SN could never compete on this route!!!

But the same way around, Lumumba. SN has a big hub at BRU, but for THAI it works.

[Ge203]

There are always two views.

The country view is correct.

The business view is likely different. The question is - what would be the cost to increase market share and operate profitable under the circumstances that there are 4 major hubs around where counteraction comes at marginal cost?

Lufthansa is a private company and their objective is to maximize the return for their shareholders, not to maximize the structural benefits of their bases. Of course they can cooperate with local stakeholders, but the game they would play would be always the same - if they allocate next year 100 Mio ( randomly here for 2 A320 delivered) - which base/brand can offer me the best return?

None of the arguments from a country prospective would work, if the local entity eg SN does not compete let's say against VIE by proving that it has found the right routes, delivering higher profits for the group than other bases competing for the same investment.

Ther eis alaso a very legitimate question if in a high share LCC market such as Belgium with around 50% LCC share the general public is not expecting by default a pricing structure a networker ( this is how Brussels repositioned itself) can not deliver?

It’s not that easy. If you don’t give an airline the tool it needs to make money, then it’s no wonder that the situation doesn’t improve.

The repetitive AOGs on the long haul aircraft are a serious issue causing significant delays and cancellations. Withholding the extra A333 will only make the situation worse. I personally think that they are not joining SN simply because LH needs them. And if LH or LX needs something, it’s the top priority. We don’t really matter compared to them. And now, the decision on which newer generation long haul aircraft SN will welcome, has been delayed till… 2029. In a time where fuel costs have skyrocketed, this is not what SN needs.

One noticeable thing is that SN has been operating since a few years flights that are meant to feed FRA/MUC/ZRH hubs that LH and LX were previously operating. That is preventing SN from using that capacity on flights with higher yields, and therefore make more money. There is daily, the capacity equivalent to ~3 SN aircraft feeding LX and LH hubs, including nightstops.

The put the loss into perspective; had the fuel costs not increased to the level we now today and with no strike, the first semester would have probably been a break even. Not too bad, if you ask me. It really makes you wonder if the austerity decided (by LHG) really make sense with such punctual events…

[Miqvell]

There are always two views.

The country view is correct.

The business view is likely different. The question is - what would be the cost to increase market share and operate profitable under the circumstances that there are 4 major hubs around where counteraction comes at marginal cost?

Lufthansa is a private company and their objective is to maximize the return for their shareholders, not to maximize the structural benefits of their bases. Of course they can cooperate with local stakeholders, but the game they would play would be always the same - if they allocate next year 100 Mio ( randomly here for 2 A320 delivered) - which base/brand can offer me the best return?

None of the arguments from a country prospective would work, if the local entity eg SN does not compete let's say against VIE by proving that it has found the right routes, delivering higher profits for the group than other bases competing for the same investment.

Ther eis alaso a very legitimate question if in a high share LCC market such as Belgium with around 50% LCC share the general public is not expecting by default a pricing structure a networker ( this is how Brussels repositioned itself) can not deliver?

One noticeable thing is that SN has been operating since a few years flights that are meant to feed FRA/MUC/ZRH hubs that LH and LX were previously operating. That is preventing SN from using that capacity on flights with higher yields, and therefore make more money. There is daily, the capacity equivalent to ~3 SN aircraft feeding LX and LH hubs, including nightstops.

But as I said, Lufthansa plans to take over Frankfurt and Munich next summer.

[Ge203]

There are always two views.

The country view is correct.

The business view is likely different. The question is - what would be the cost to increase market share and operate profitable under the circumstances that there are 4 major hubs around where counteraction comes at marginal cost?

Lufthansa is a private company and their objective is to maximize the return for their shareholders, not to maximize the structural benefits of their bases. Of course they can cooperate with local stakeholders, but the game they would play would be always the same - if they allocate next year 100 Mio ( randomly here for 2 A320 delivered) - which base/brand can offer me the best return?

None of the arguments from a country prospective would work, if the local entity eg SN does not compete let's say against VIE by proving that it has found the right routes, delivering higher profits for the group than other bases competing for the same investment.

Ther eis alaso a very legitimate question if in a high share LCC market such as Belgium with around 50% LCC share the general public is not expecting by default a pricing structure a networker ( this is how Brussels repositioned itself) can not deliver?

One noticeable thing is that SN has been operating since a few years flights that are meant to feed FRA/MUC/ZRH hubs that LH and LX were previously operating. That is preventing SN from using that capacity on flights with higher yields, and therefore make more money. There is daily, the capacity equivalent to ~3 SN aircraft feeding LX and LH hubs, including nightstops.

But as I said, Lufthansa plans to take over Frankfurt and Munich next summer.

It is indeed planned that way. We will see if the remains unchanged, and if that doesn’t come with the removal of some medium haul aircraft from the SN fleet.

[Lux_avi]

I also think SN should diversify its long-haul destinations at some point, next to Africa. For example Thai didn’t flew for a few years to Belgium, but since the comeback they can fill up their planes pretty well.

Never understood why SN is not filling in clear long haul-gaps out of Brussels instead of leaving it all to Emirates, Turkish and the rest of the Lufthansa Group.

But Thai has a big hub in Bangkok SN could never compete on this route!!!

But the same way around, Lumumba. SN has a big hub at BRU, but for THAI it works.

Lol.

BRU = 24 million pax
BKK = 63 million pax

You can fly from BRU to everywhere in the east via BKK.
It's not really the case the other way around...

[Atlantis]

There are always two views.

The country view is correct.

The business view is likely different. The question is - what would be the cost to increase market share and operate profitable under the circumstances that there are 4 major hubs around where counteraction comes at marginal cost?

Lufthansa is a private company and their objective is to maximize the return for their shareholders, not to maximize the structural benefits of their bases. Of course they can cooperate with local stakeholders, but the game they would play would be always the same - if they allocate next year 100 Mio ( randomly here for 2 A320 delivered) - which base/brand can offer me the best return?

None of the arguments from a country prospective would work, if the local entity eg SN does not compete let's say against VIE by proving that it has found the right routes, delivering higher profits for the group than other bases competing for the same investment.

Ther eis alaso a very legitimate question if in a high share LCC market such as Belgium with around 50% LCC share the general public is not expecting by default a pricing structure a networker ( this is how Brussels repositioned itself) can not deliver?

One noticeable thing is that SN has been operating since a few years flights that are meant to feed FRA/MUC/ZRH hubs that LH and LX were previously operating. That is preventing SN from using that capacity on flights with higher yields, and therefore make more money. There is daily, the capacity equivalent to ~3 SN aircraft feeding LX and LH hubs, including nightstops.

But as I said, Lufthansa plans to take over Frankfurt and Munich next summer.

And probably to free up capacity for SN when they will not use Air Baltic next year.

[lumumba]

But Thai has a big hub in Bangkok SN could never compete on this route!!!

But the same way around, Lumumba. SN has a big hub at BRU, but for THAI it works.

Lol.

BRU = 24 million pax
BKK = 63 million pax

You can fly from BRU to everywhere in the east via BKK.
It's not really the case the other way around...

Exactly.
Of all the destinations that Brussels Airlines offers, you can easily fly to Bangkok. There's no need to fly via Brussels.
In addition, it's a very competitive line low yield.
The catch area around Brussels is very interesting for Thai.

[Conti764]

There are always two views.

The country view is correct.

The business view is likely different. The question is - what would be the cost to increase market share and operate profitable under the circumstances that there are 4 major hubs around where counteraction comes at marginal cost?

Lufthansa is a private company and their objective is to maximize the return for their shareholders, not to maximize the structural benefits of their bases. Of course they can cooperate with local stakeholders, but the game they would play would be always the same - if they allocate next year 100 Mio ( randomly here for 2 A320 delivered) - which base/brand can offer me the best return?

None of the arguments from a country prospective would work, if the local entity eg SN does not compete let's say against VIE by proving that it has found the right routes, delivering higher profits for the group than other bases competing for the same investment.

Ther eis alaso a very legitimate question if in a high share LCC market such as Belgium with around 50% LCC share the general public is not expecting by default a pricing structure a networker ( this is how Brussels repositioned itself) can not deliver?

It’s not that easy. If you don’t give an airline the tool it needs to make money, then it’s no wonder that the situation doesn’t improve.

The repetitive AOGs on the long haul aircraft are a serious issue causing significant delays and cancellations. Withholding the extra A333 will only make the situation worse. I personally think that they are not joining SN simply because LH needs them. And if LH or LX needs something, it’s the top priority. We don’t really matter compared to them. And now, the decision on which newer generation long haul aircraft SN will welcome, has been delayed till… 2029. In a time where fuel costs have skyrocketed, this is not what SN needs.

One noticeable thing is that SN has been operating since a few years flights that are meant to feed FRA/MUC/ZRH hubs that LH and LX were previously operating. That is preventing SN from using that capacity on flights with higher yields, and therefore make more money. There is daily, the capacity equivalent to ~3 SN aircraft feeding LX and LH hubs, including nightstops.

The put the loss into perspective; had the fuel costs not increased to the level we now today and with no strike, the first semester would have probably been a break even. Not too bad, if you ask me. It really makes you wonder if the austerity decided (by LHG) really make sense with such punctual events…

SN will never get newer l/h planes. LH will just drag them around and slowly turn them into a regional airline to give Italy or Portugal the time to draw up bilaterals with African countries. Maybe SN will be allowed to retain FIH, but you don't need more than 2 planes for that operation.

SN and thus BRU have no real future. It will turn out to be a wise decision not to expand capacity at BRU. They'll soon have plenty. SN will feed pax into the other hubs of the group.

[oldblueeyes]

What if the answers are more straight forward than we think?

SN delivered a -7% profitability in the first 6 months. If you burn money, you have no money for expansion.
SN was barely profitable during the last years, the numbers were artificially improved with sales and lease back transactions (just read in detail the annual reports). Likely SN does not have any solid business case despite marginal improvement and growth based on hope.

The rule in the group is to allocate aircraft there, were it brings the most benefit - and brands should compete for this.

What if Discover has a better plan -they seem to deliver year on year solid numbers. The decision would be rationale to shift allocation.

At the same time, LHG comitted towards brand new A320NEO for SN, an investment SN itself could never cover.

[Conti764]

Whatever reason you give, nothing you say contradicts my prediction. SN l/h will all but disappear.
You can still use A320NEO's for feeder flights to FRA/MUC/ZRH/VIE/FCO/(LIS) and some short haul flying.
The future is very bleak for both SN and BRU.

SN is at ~-70 million, taking a hit on fuel for ~63 million. If that didn't happen, it would have a 7 million loss which would have been a huge improvement from last year and put the airline on track for solid black figures yearround. It had an increase in revenue of 10%.

Shelving an expansion - with old LH A333's, not factory new A350's - based on this numbers makes no sense if the plan is to have SN grow. There is no clear ambition for the airline.

[oscartango]

But the same way around, Lumumba. SN has a big hub at BRU, but for THAI it works.

Lol.

BRU = 24 million pax
BKK = 63 million pax

You can fly from BRU to everywhere in the east via BKK.
It's not really the case the other way around...

Exactly.
Of all the destinations that Brussels Airlines offers, you can easily fly to Bangkok. There's no need to fly via Brussels.
In addition, it's a very competitive line low yield.
The catch area around Brussels is very interesting for Thai.

No you’re right about that. But still they can have a more ambitious network, also in Europe. Most of the Belgians fly SN on short haul routes, just cause there are no flights with SN on any classic long haul tourist destinations, except Kenia and the US. For a home carrier that’s lacking if you see that Swiss, LH and Austrian offer the same long haul destinations from all of their hubs…

And even on short haul SN doesn’t offer anything more exciting service wise than any low cost carrier. In the end there isn’t much reason to fly SN.

[oldblueeyes]

Well, could it be a positioning problem?

SN wants to be a network airline, not having neither the size for a decent feeder network nor an attractive long haul offering.

But it reacted allergic to the positioning of "old" Eurowings, which is in fact P2P plus leiure and not so heavy business desrinations on long haul, which is more or less Discover today.

Would be for the average Belgian not more attractive to have a local airline flying him where he/she needs across Europe and not where the feeders hope on most Pax for Africa?
And would be more European leisure destinations not more attractive?

And was is it not a local pride driven decision to enforce a repositiining the brand as network carrier in a fairly unattractive market that is irrelevant for the average folks?

Let's be straight : i doubt that the average citizen would ever have the interest to know where Entebbe and Bujumbura are in the map.

[Matt]

So much doom thinking here. Just look at the LH fleet. It's a mess...

The 2 A330's @LH are not going anywhere any time soon. They'll stay at the mainline for now together with the A343. They have the same type rating and same cabin. (n.b. The transfer of D-AIKS to Discover has also been postponed from 09/2026 to 12/2026)

3 A343's will leave this year due to heavy scheduled maintenance to keep these flying. The rest are staying until 2028 (again, retirement postponed...)

Looking at the 777X and 789 deliveries, I am confident that LH needs all these aircraft. the A346 are leaving in October and the 789 deliveries are going slower than expected. Not to mention that 4 of these 789's will go to OS by the end of the year.

Sure, SN isn't doing great, but LH is doing arguably worse, trying to save their own sorry ass by putting SN back. (protectionism)