Airbus, Boeing and now China

boeing797 · Post by **boeing797** » 13 Mar 2007, 17:07

China plans to be a third major airframe manufacturer by 2020. I don't like it at all.
http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/af ... 10074.html

cageyjames · Post by **cageyjames** » 13 Mar 2007, 17:14

You don't like it? Why? Competition is good IMO.

Heck think about where Brazil was in the early 80's until now. Embraer could be the wild card here though. Think about where they will be in 15 years.

Buzz · Post by **Buzz** » 13 Mar 2007, 17:34

Why would you not like it? It's not like they will take over the world market in 10 years time... The production is mainly intended for the domestic market, at least at first.

Post by **ElcoB** » 13 Mar 2007, 18:16

Not only the Chinese but also the Russians have ambition:

...the Russian side is ready to have Ukrainian specialists involved in the development of new Russian airplanes.

Concern Aviation of Ukraine is likely to merge with United Aviation Corporation (UAC)

High-tech cooperation between the two countries involves a crucial deal between Alenia Aeronautica, part of Italy's electronics-making company Finmeccanica, and Russia's Sukhoi fighter jet maker on the production of Superjet-100, designed to replace Russia's ageing Tu-154 and Tu-134 models. The aircraft are expected to enter service after 2012.

Russia-Italy economic ties strong ahead of Putin trip

smokejumper · Post by **smokejumper** » 13 Mar 2007, 19:40

China is a VERY large aircraft market, one that both Airbus and Boeing have eyed. As China's aircraft industry develops, it will have logistical and cost advantages over A and B.

It can be expected that China's airlines will give preference to it's own indigenous industry, probably with gentle prodding by the Chinese Government.

That's the I see it after 2015, once the industry develops.

Remember that China purchased a B-707 in the 1970's and developed a smaller version of it. China procured a B-707-120 in 1973 or 1974 and reverse engineered the plane into the Shanghi Y-10, powered by PW engines. Since the plane was based on a 25 year old design, they did not proceed with full scale production and instead licensed production rights for the McDonnell Douglas MD-80 series aircraft. But the Y-10 effort gave them good experience with large passenger aircraft.

Post by **ElcoB** » 13 Mar 2007, 20:36

smokejumper wrote:That's the I see it after 2015, once the industry develops.......

Maybe sooner: their ARJ-21 has more than 40 orders already.

ARJ21 Aircraft Program turning into the full-scale trial-manufacture phase

DFW · Post by **DFW** » 13 Mar 2007, 20:42

The new A320 assembly line in China will also give them Western style operational experience. When Airbus announced this new assembly line, did anyone doubt that China had ambitions of competing against A and B?

Power8 may actually benefit China very well. Unlike Toulouse and Hamburg, the A320 line in China would immediately set up efficient practices rather than being retrofitted.

With that said, 2020 is extremely ambitious and not attainable though. The quality industrial base and integrated design know-how will take longer to achieve. Much has been made about how quickly Airbus became a major player. But Airbus had predecessors who were already well versed in designing and manufacturing world class airplanes. The Chinese government might force domestic airlines to buy Chinese made airplanes. But these airplanes won't be comparable to A or B for quite awhile.

IMHO anyways.

David747 · Post by **David747** » 14 Mar 2007, 04:22

China being a major competitor to Airbus and Boeing will be welcomed, if they don't produce airplanes that are crap.

DFW · Post by **DFW** » 14 Mar 2007, 07:19

David747 wrote:China being a major competitor to Airbus and Boeing will be welcomed, if they don't produce airplanes that are crap.

It's more than the lack of quality standards, which is itself a big issue. China doesn't play by the rules. Never has and never will:

Intellectual property rights - I can tell you that $5 will get you a license of CATIA, Pro/ENGINEER, or whatever they use, readily available on the street. Chinese hackers are good at cracking any licensing scheme. Of course, the major companies pursue a number of legitimate licenses, but what's the unofficial number of copies in use? Meanwhile Boeing and Airbus legitimately pay for their 10,000+ licenses, which retail for about $8,000 per license on average. And that's not including the suppliers who use illegal copies as well. Smokejumper pointed out that China even reverse engineered the 707.

Inadequate environmental laws and even worse compliance - It's easy to build things cheaply when you dump industrial waste into the nearest river. Who cares that the kids in the village downstream are dying of cancer? I once visited a friend in an affluent neighborhood. The river next to it had human sewage drifting downstream. And don't get me started about the tap water with yellowish tint --- at the HYATT!!! That's the good water; wonder what the common person deals with.

Worker safety - It seems like every other week that you hear about a mine explosion with scores of miners dead.

Etc.

Whenever possible I try to avoid buying things from China (which is difficult since almost everything is made there). The product may be cheap, but the human cost is too high.

boeing797 · Post by **boeing797** » 14 Mar 2007, 13:56

DFW wrote:. The Chinese government might force domestic airlines to buy Chinese made airplanes. But these airplanes won't be comparable to A or B for quite awhile.

IMHO anyways.

This is one of the reasons for which I don't like to see China become a third player. It will cause larger trade gap between US and China. I rather see Japan compete with Boeing and Airbus.

smokejumper · Post by **smokejumper** » 14 Mar 2007, 14:15

Totally agree with DFW (above).

Also, a "warning" by Steven Udvar-Hazy is contained in an article in the Seattle Times. See:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/b ... aft14.html

chunk · Post by **chunk** » 14 Mar 2007, 14:25

Well I am currently sat in Luanda in a building that was contructed by chinese labour, using chinese materials and partly paid by chinese funds....i can only hope that the build quality of their aircraft is better than that of this building. It is pretty poor and falling to pieces after 18 months....

Not saying that all chinese build quality will be poor but you dont get a reputation for no reason whatsoever......

smokejumper · Post by **smokejumper** » 14 Mar 2007, 20:57

ElcoB wrote:
smokejumper wrote:That's the I see it after 2015, once the industry develops.......
Maybe sooner: their ARJ-21 has more than 40 orders already.
ARJ21 Aircraft Program turning into the full-scale trial-manufacture phase

It is a good looking airplane.

David747 · Post by **David747** » 15 Mar 2007, 03:48

DFW wrote:
It's more than the lack of quality standards, which is itself a big issue. China doesn't play by the rules. Never has and never will:

Intellectual property rights - I can tell you that $5 will get you a license of CATIA, Pro/ENGINEER, or whatever they use, readily available on the street. Chinese hackers are good at cracking any licensing scheme. Of course, the major companies pursue a number of legitimate licenses, but what's the unofficial number of copies in use? Meanwhile Boeing and Airbus legitimately pay for their 10,000+ licenses, which retail for about $8,000 per license on average. And that's not including the suppliers who use illegal copies as well. Smokejumper pointed out that China even reverse engineered the 707..

Everything you have said there is true, but if China gets into the field with Airbus and Boeing, they will have to build their planes using legitimate means. Anyone can correct, but the Chinese Civil Aviation Administration will have to adopt ICAO rules that govern the production of jetliners, so I don't think China will allow any person off the street to design and develop a jetliner. If they want to enter the competition against Airbus and Boeing, they will have to play by the rules.

Inadequate environmental laws and even worse compliance - It's easy to build things cheaply when you dump industrial waste into the nearest river. Who cares that the kids in the village downstream are dying of cancer? I once visited a friend in an affluent neighborhood. The river next to it had human sewage drifting downstream. And don't get me started about the tap water with yellowish tint --- at the HYATT!!! That's the good water; wonder what the common person deals with.

Absolutely, but I'm going to play devils advocate here. Chinese leadership will implement in the coming months and years environmental regulations to keep the country from further environmental degradation. I think the Chinese leadership understands the need to protect their environment and on that basis, they will regulate their jetliner industry the way it is done in the west.

Worker safety - It seems like every other week that you hear about a mine explosion with scores of miners dead

.

True

Whenever possible I try to avoid buying things from China (which is difficult since almost everything is made there). The product may be cheap, but the human cost is too high.

Well, the reality is, China is going to take over and there isn't a damn thing we can do about it. Now, thank God I have a head start, I have already read Mao's Little Red Book so I will not be sent to reeducation camp.

Berova · Post by **Berova** » 15 Mar 2007, 04:15

smokejumper wrote:
It is a good looking airplane.

Those "winglets" look awefully small for its fuselage!

CX · Post by CX » 16 Mar 2007, 06:01

Won't a 3-2 seat configuration cause problems? i mean you have very unbalanced loads in the fuselage...

Safety is surely not a problem, or at least not due to the lack of technology or poor management. China is at a stage now where they know they can't do things wrong, they obviously want to prove to the world they can do everything.. Within the country yes, a lot of things are not the way you expect they should be but facing the outside world, you can bet that they will do the best they can and show the world they are capable...

However I dont' think these planemakers will be comparable with Airbus/Boeing any time soon... i mean, will they have the technology or the capital to build facilities to make a composite fuselage and a composite wing? Will they have resources to work on new age engines with engine suppliers? etc.. no.. but of course it will be great for some budget domestic airlines..

chunk · Post by **chunk** » 16 Mar 2007, 08:50

Shouldn't do - Fokker 70's and 100's are 3-2. The smaller ERJ's are 1 - 2 nethier seems to have any problem.

HAWK21M · Post by **HAWK21M** » 16 Mar 2007, 13:12

Will quality be an Issue.

Has China previously produced a Civil Airliner in the past.

regds
MEL