Cathay Pacific Airways to Expand Fleet

[A350XWB]

Hong Kong's dominant airline Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. said it is planning an annual capital expenditure of HK$9.5 billion ($1.2 billion) to HK$10 billion ($1.28 billion) between now and 2009, mainly for fleet expansion.

Cathay Pacific plans to spend at least HK$9.5 billion each year in 2007 and 2008, and a minimum of HK$10 billion in 2009, Chief Operating Officer Tony Tyler told an analyst conference late Thursday.

Of the planned expenditure, the total to be spent on fleet expansion will be HK$7 billion this year, HK$6 billion in 2008 and HK$8 billion in 2009.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/01/ ... 23477.html


747-8 and 787 ....chance !!! 8) .............no A380 and A350

cx is not happy with airbus . .A340-600 very very BAD

[CX]

where does it say anything about what planes they'll add anyway?
And, the 43 planes they'll add is just the 773ER and the A333s they have on order...

I do think they'll most likely order 748s to replace their 744s, but a few A380s won't be surprising.. But they have ordered 19 773ERs, replacing 3 A346s, they still have 16 additional 773ERs, will they be taking over 744s?

787vsA350, i think they'll split it, the 787-10 can probably replace A343s in the future but A350 to replace their 773s and 772s...

[teach]

747-8 and 787 ....chance !!! .............no A380 and A350

It says nothing of the kind anywhere in the text.

cx is not happy with airbus .

That explains why they keep on adding more and more A330s

[David747]

CX adding the 748 as a replacement for the 744 wouldn't be surprising, and in my opinion, it would fit CX's current and future long haul fleet plans. A380 I also believe will be part of that. Now, when it comes to CX mad at Airbus, I would find that hard to believe, now being disappointed at the performance of the A340 wouldn't surprise me though. Anyone can correct me if I'm wrong, but CX adding 777-300's to its fleet will be a way to phase out some of its A340 on long haul routes.

[fleabyte]

I think they will focus on the 777 after the large contest they conducted for wide bodies last year.

They will have more 777-300ER and less of a need to replace their 747-400 with A380 or 747-8i. They will probably order 8 or 10 7478i and some 747-8F freighters.

Cathay seems to make selections and then purchase small groups of aircraft, rather than anouncing big orders that have many years worth of delivery positions.

[CXRules]

Here's the link to their fleet fact, including numbers on current fleet and orders:

http://www.cathaypacific.com/cpa/en_HK/ ... /factsheet

It shows 34 total order, the remaining 9 orders mentioned in the article are for Dragonair. I don't think the article add anything new to what we already know, except how much money are they going to spend for these orders.

As for future orders, Cathay has stated that they don't order new model early, such as the A380. The B747-8, as an improved existing model, has a better shot right now if they decide to order now; however, they are okay with the existing B747 fleet, and they don't see any reason to order any replacement any time soon.

I think the B777-300ER will replace A340-600, some A340-300 and perhaps some B747-400, with extras for expansion. I believe that the Hong Kong-Toronto route will go non-stop, replacing the A340-300 with B777-300ER.

Ideally for Cathay, their future fleet would have A330-300 (get rid of A340-300/-600), B777-300/-300ER (get rid of the B777-200), and B747-400s. The key here is the word "ideally", in my opinion of course. More likely scenario is A330-300, A340-300, B777-200/-300/-300ER, and B747-400s.

[fokker_f27]

Here's the link to their fleet fact, including numbers on current fleet and orders:

http://www.cathaypacific.com/cpa/en_HK/ ... /factsheet

It shows 34 total order, the remaining 9 orders mentioned in the article are for Dragonair. I don't think the article add anything new to what we already know, except how much money are they going to spend for these orders.

As for future orders, Cathay has stated that they don't order new model early, such as the A380. The B747-8, as an improved existing model, has a better shot right now if they decide to order now; however, they are okay with the existing B747 fleet, and they don't see any reason to order any replacement any time soon.

I think the B777-300ER will replace A340-600, some A340-300 and perhaps some B747-400, with extras for expansion. I believe that the Hong Kong-Toronto route will go non-stop, replacing the A340-300 with B777-300ER.

Ideally for Cathay, their future fleet would have A330-300 (get rid of A340-300/-600), B777-300/-300ER (get rid of the B777-200), and B747-400s. The key here is the word "ideally", in my opinion of course. More likely scenario is A330-300, A340-300, B777-200/-300/-300ER, and B747-400s.

The way how you predict such stuff always amazes me, as does the fact that it all sounds correct to me.

[CX]

They must be one of those waiting to see how A380 performs in revenue service... i mean an airline with one of the newest fleets will not keep 744s for too much longer, unless they dont' want any jumbos.
I think the A343 was great for them before oil became so expensive and the 773ER, they had it for so long! it probably saved them heaps by running 340s and 330s.

[CXRules]

Well, fokker_f27, I've been following Cathay for many years. I read a lot of stuff about them or from them, so those are some educated guesses, not totally out of nowhere.

Cathay is a conservative airline, so I was a bit surprised by the aggressive expansion plan for the next few years. But, I think they are betting on the growth of Mainland China, believing that HKG would become a major hub for Chinese travelers. That's why the Dragonair purchase is so important. Not only Cathay is betting on that, the Hong Kong Airport Authority is doing the same, as they are planning on a third runway and terminal expansion (nothing is firm yet).

[CX]

Well, fokker_f27, I've been following Cathay for many years. I read a lot of stuff about them or from them, so those are some educated guesses, not totally out of nowhere.

Cathay is a conservative airline, so I was a bit surprised by the aggressive expansion plan for the next few years. But, I think they are betting on the growth of Mainland China, believing that HKG would become a major hub for Chinese travelers. That's why the Dragonair purchase is so important. Not only Cathay is betting on that, the Hong Kong Airport Authority is doing the same, as they are planning on a third runway and terminal expansion (nothing is firm yet).

Actually why is this expansion considered agressive? They only have 5 more A333s yet to be delivered and 18 773ERs(i thought 19?), the rest are freighters and the expansion of their cargo business is another story, but only talking about passenger planes, I put my 2c that not only will they replace the 3 leased A346s, but some 744s (they have a huge 22x 744 fleet, and i'm sure some are older than others).

[CXRules]

To explain it, we need to talk a bit about the history of Cathay Pacific since I'm looking at it from a historical prospective. Certainly, you cannot leave out the freighters. Aren't freights making money for Cathay too? You bet they are!

For example, they have 27 A330-300. But, do you remember what was the initial number ordered? Answer: 10! 10 firm order, plus 10 options, a deal signed in 1989. It was the only order they had that year, and it was a big order for Cathay Pacific. Let's compared to 2006 with the B777-300ER order, 16 firm, plus 20 options; now it's 18 firm, 18 options. That's almost doubling the initial A330 order, not to mentioned the extra A330s and B747-400ERF's. They have ordered more planes in the past year than any year in Cathay's history.

The strategy of Cathay Pacific is to order some and more options. If the plane performs well, they'd convert those options to orders; otherwise, they would probably convert fewer. If they need more, they will just order more when the time comes (like the A330's). Cathay is not like the government-owned Singapore Airlines or Emirates, who liked to order big for big headlines with their government giving them helping hands to make money. Cathay is a well-run public-listed enterprise that is conservative and don't get much help from government since it's never state-owned, ever.

Their aggressive growth plan is clear: to capture the growth of the Mainland. I think their assessment is correct with the purchased Dragonair. Looking back, I believe the Dragonair deal was going on for a while (talk-wise) as they put these orders together. The orders are designed to capture the growth in Chinese business through Dragonair down the road. So, I guess I shouldn't be surprised. However, back then, the Dragonair deal was not made public (still negotiating I assumed), so I was rightly so being surprised.

Now, what's the next step? Will Cathay/Dragonair eventually be able to fly Chinese domestic routes? Hmmm.

[CX]

Having said that, A333 is still a good performer after so long in service, still a large number on order and new orders..

[RC20]

Having said that, A333 is still a good performer after so long in service, still a large number on order and new orders..

In all the discussion it does need to be kept in mind as CX states, the A330 is a very good aircraft. Its what took down the 767 (which is a pretty successful model line at around 1000 delivered and ordered).

Actually its so good, that its what led Airbus to think they did not have to respond to the 787, and when they did, offering a variant, not a new aircraft. They thought Boeing was using Airbus rhetoric, and dismissed the 787, because they just did not think Boeing could make an aircraft that much better. The A330 will continue to serve for a long time (as will 767s). Others will take them used as they are very attractive.

Its not that there is anything wrong with it, Boeing just made that huge technological jump move that pulled the rug out from under it. It will go down as one of those oddities, a good aircraft whose production was truncated by a confluence of events an technology make for a strange twist of fate.

[achace]

I think the summing up of RC20 is the most succinct we have seen in the forum for quite some time.

Feel a bit sorry for AB, but they should have known better than to expect Boeing to keep taking the hits handed out by the market.

Cheers
Achace

[fleabyte]

If they opt for the 787, then Airbus is really hurting. I think Cathay is prime candidate for the A350, first to replace the A330 and then the 777-200.

of course, I am getting so far ahead, as cathay has A330 deliveries scheduled out for several years ahead.

Maybe they will also take some A330F?

[CXRules]

I don't think Cathay would order A330F because they are building their freighter fleet with B747F's only. Air Hong Kong, their joint venture with DHL, just received brand-new A300F from Airbus in the past couple of years. So, I simply don't see the A330F happening.

A350 is a better fit than B787 for Cathay at the moment, but like I said earlier, they don't order completely new model early, especially one that is so different like the B787 or A350. The B787 will fly first, so we'll see how it will perform real soon.

[CXRules]

With four B747-400BCF arrived in the past year, Cathay is expanding its freighter network. Effective 1 February 2007, it will add a total of 11 extra freighter flights each week to three major cities in Europe: Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Manchester. With the extra services, the number of freighter flights operated to Europe every week by the airline will rise from 25 to 36 – an increase of almost 50 per cent.

A total of five flights a week are being added to Frankfurt, Germany’s main cargo hub, operating every Monday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The extra flights, all routed through Dubai, will take to 11 the number of flights Cathay Pacific operates between Hong Kong and Frankfurt each week.

The other six new flights all follow a Hong Kong-Dubai-Manchester-Amsterdam-Dubai-Hong Kong pattern, departing Hong Kong every day of the week except Friday. Cathay Pacific already operates a freighter service to Manchester, with eight flights a week, while Amsterdam will be a new freighter destination for the airline.

Two more “Boeing Converted Freighters” will be delivered in 2007 and six long-range Boeing 747-400ERFs are on firm order, with deliveries starting in May 2008.

[CXRules]

An interesting interview with Cathay CEO Philip Chen:

http://tinyurl.com/2kld4k

[OO-VEX]

With four B747-400BCF arrived in the past year, Cathay is expanding its freighter network. Effective 1 February 2007, it will add a total of 11 extra freighter flights each week to three major cities in Europe: Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Manchester. With the extra services, the number of freighter flights operated to Europe every week by the airline will rise from 25 to 36 – an increase of almost 50 per cent.

A total of five flights a week are being added to Frankfurt, Germany’s main cargo hub, operating every Monday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The extra flights, all routed through Dubai, will take to 11 the number of flights Cathay Pacific operates between Hong Kong and Frankfurt each week.

The other six new flights all follow a Hong Kong-Dubai-Manchester-Amsterdam-Dubai-Hong Kong pattern, departing Hong Kong every day of the week except Friday. Cathay Pacific already operates a freighter service to Manchester, with eight flights a week, while Amsterdam will be a new freighter destination for the airline.

The CX cargo flight planner doesn't mention any of these new flights. But they do mention Dragonair KA cargo flights (which is new I believe?) and exactly those 3 destinations AMS, FRA and MAN were the only 3 in the KA European cargo network. This makes me believe that there won't be such a capacity increase like mentionned in this post. The Dragonair flights are now just part of the CX cargo network.

OO-VEX

[CXRules]

The post is based on a press release by Cathay Pacific Airways. I do not create fiction, and the easiest way to check is go to their website. And if you actually read the CX CEO interview, he clearly stated that they intend to leave Dragonair Cargo alone as a separate entity. I don't necessarily agree with that decision, but that's what they're doing.

http://tinyurl.com/yoyznd