Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

[Stij]

Ladies,

Please cool down and watch your vocabulary!
Remember, verba volant, scripta manent.

Thank-you,

Stij

[Flanker2]

I don't see any insults floating around, just arguments from both sides???
Do people actually interpret anti-arguments as insults?

[sn26567]

Not really, but please have a look at the title of this thread and stick to it.

There is another thread about Ryanair in 2014 for those who want to post facts and remarks about that airline!

[Stij]

Dear Flanker,

Not anymore, some posts have been deleted...

So, I understand your confusion...

Cheers,

Stij

[b.lufthansa]

What is Brussels Airlines on-time performance since start 2014 ?

[FlightMate]

SN is really doing good this year (traffic and loadfactor wise)

But as Sean talked about fleet renewal, I agree that SN should be given the right tools, if we want to see it make profits and become competitive against other airlines, not just against Ryan Air.

Its strength is that it has a relatively small fleet (specially LH). So it shouldn't be too expensive to replace the A330 and train crew on new types.

Think about all the fuel savings in the medium term.

[Flanker2]

SN is really doing good this year (traffic and loadfactor wise)

But as Sean talked about fleet renewal, I agree that SN should be given the right tools, if we want to see it make profits and become competitive against other airlines, not just against Ryan Air.

It's strength is that it has a relatively small fleet (specially LH). So it shouldn't be too expensive to replace the A330 and train crew on new types.

I agree that SN should be given the right tools, but in a different way.
The A333 strategy isn't that bad given low utilisation on medium haul routes of 6 hours. New equipment brings higher capital cost in echange for lower fuel burn, so it makes more sense for routes of 8 hours or more. I'm only worried about going for the aging of the A333 fleet, which can bring surprises.
I think that SN should go for NEO's or MAX as soon as possible.


I also think that SN "doing good" is very relative if we look at shorthaul.
People are crying victory over 80% load factors.
SN's mainstay A319's are configured with 141 seats. 80% is 113 seats.
That is equivalent to a 60% load factor for a Ryanair B738, which has equivalent or lower operting costs than the A319.

I think that the real problem of level playing field is there (and not in the rest of political blabla)
If SN wants to compete head-to-head against FR, they need a 197 seat Max, or like Wizzair, 240 seat A321's.
And they need to fill it to 90%, before they can be happy with themselves.

[Pocahontas]

Perhaps you should do the investment for Bru Air Flanker02? Or where do you suggest to get that money?

[Flanker2]

Perhaps you should do the investment for Bru Air Flanker02? Or where do you suggest to get that money?

It's SN who wants the head-head fight against FR, not me. So they should figure out by themselves where they're going to find the weapons to fight them, again, not me.

Celebrations of flying RJ100's and A319's at maximum 80% load factors during the highest season on low density configurations fighting against FR at 90% on high density B738's is like a child wielding a knife to a commando with a AK-47. That foolish optimism is clearly reflected in Tolipanebas's posts.

I'm just saying that if SN wants to fight head-to-head, they need to get the right tools.
If they can't get the right tools, they can't win this fight.
If they can't win this fight, perhaps they should focus on a fight that they can and need to win, ie their Africa operations. For instance, why doesn't the B.house ask themselves why the "Africa specialist" is not flying to Africa's biggest economy, ie Nigeria? With the TATL links they established, this was the obvious next step, yet now they're decreasing TATL flying in the winter because they made yet another miscalculation...

[Inquirer]

I don't think you can go beyond 3 frequencies per day with such a concept from a relatively small market like Belgium on a sufficiently large number of interesting routes, sorry, flanker.
Remember such is much more important to a network airline than to an airline like for instance ryanair.
Your advice seems to be too much focussed on people which are very much price driven only.

Which leads me to another remark I'd like to make:
The idea you need to match ryanair on price to be competitive is just one way, at least according to me, yet I believe I have a fair point since otherwise, easyjet wouldn't be as successfull as it is.
I can understand that for some people it may be all important to shave another few tens of euro of a return trip, but believe me, it's not so for everybody on the plane. Just as not everybody goes to Colruyt (price champion) either, just because they don't like the spartan looks and atmosphere, or the limited product offer.
Personally, I am not going to bother to fly anybody else who's say a hundred euro cheaper from BRU if that means I have to compromise on my day return options and have to book with another company for each destination I go to!
Now, that doesn't mean I blindly pay 800 euro for a ZRH either, I do look for alternatives there too, but whether BSL is at 250 or 350 euro, I couldn't care less really, so clearly price isn't the only thing either.
(maybe I shouldn't have said that, in case they read along; BSL will become a more expensive alternative to ZRH! )

[Pocahontas]

There is no money to buy new planes! So with what should they lease Airbus NEO planes? You honestly think that, would they have money, that those Avro's would still fly? That they wouldn't have new LH planes?
There's a difference in managing an airline with the means you have, compared to writing some nice theories here. One should not forget this.
On top of that one should not forget that no airport (EBCI fe in BE) bends for Bru Air like they bend for other companies either. Building new terminals, improve the ILS to a CAT III,...

[OO-ITR]

You know what Passenger?

This is all going to be wasted megabytes soon enough as Ryanair has said that they're going to take SN out.
I'm not going to waste my energy trying to help SN anymore, as their fate seems to be out of their own hands.

SN didn't want to listen? Their effing problem!

Oh boy Ryanair is going to take SN...again! Reminds me of some other airlines: Aer Lingus, Cyprus Airways
Why don't you read one of the last SN press conferences. Pax in August +19,1%, LF at a record high, a few days ago a new day record has been set...
I rest my case.

So what I have seen until now from you, let's hope that SN will never call for your help. But I seriously doubt they will...

[convair]

Hello!
May I remind you there if another thread to discuss the "Ebola" flights. I'll just comment that paranoia seems to be spreading as fast as the epidemic itself.

Back to topic, I've not read that SN wants to beat FR; it only wants to progress and survive.
Now, with LH preparing new plans for its group as a whole, it seems obvious that they will buy the remaining shares of SN, probably next spring after the General Assembly. At that time there will be no obstacle for the LH group to treat SN like their other 100% affiliates and provide it with a renewed fleet (more recent if not brand new). The easier to do as it is a rather small fleet.
Just my own guess though.

[Flanker2]

The EU commission has serious concerns regarding the 15 million lifeline to Brussels Airlines under the Di-Rupo government, according to De Tijd en l'Echo.

If the investigation confirms those doubts, SN has to refund the 15 millions and it could be the end.


http://www.tijd.be/r/t/1/id/9550690

De Europese Commissie heeft ernstige bezwaren tegen de levenslijn van 15 miljoen euro die Brussels Airlines opstreek.


Zo vernam de redactie. Als het Europees diepgaand onderzoek die twijfels bevestigt, moet Brussels Airlines de subsidies terugbetalen en dreigt de strop. En vandaag valt ook het definitieve Europese verdict voor de steun aan lagekostenmaatschhappij Ryanair in Charleroi. De factuur blijft naar verluidt ‘beperkt’ en heeft betrekking op heel het Waalse investeringsprorgamma voor de luchtvaart.
Europees commissaris voor Concurrentie Joaquin Almunia spaarde een beslissing over een hele resem luchtvaartdossiers op tot het einde van zijn mandaat. Vandaag verschaft hij evenwel duidelijkheid, ook over de twee zware Belgische dossiers.
De ontslagnemende regering besliste eind 2012 een subsidiepakket van 20 miljoen euro voor Zaventem. Die steun werd verpakt als een ‘terugbetaling’ van de kosten voor bewaking en veiligheid op de nationale luchthaven. De maatregel bleef beperkt tot maatschappijen met jaarlijks meer dan 400.000 passagiers. Brussels Airlines kreeg zo 15 miljoen euro, Thomas Cook 1,2 en Jetairfly 3,2 miljoen.
De Europese Commissie was destijds al boos omdat de regering de steun voor de grote carriers op Zaventem niet aanmeldde. Vandaag start ze een diepgaand onderzoek. Dit houdt in dat de Commissie na een eerste analyse oordeelt dat de subsidie de concurrentie vervalst. De klacht van Ryanair en Jetairfly tegen de Belgische steunmaatregel weegt in dit onderzoek ook zwaar door.
Dit EU-onderzoek betekent mogelijk de strop voor Brussels Airlines. De uitbetaling van de 15 miljoen kwam er pas twee weken geleden omdat de administratie zolang de uitvoering blokkeerde. Brussels Airlines boekte over 2013 een operationeel verlies van 28 miljoen euro. Zonder de steun zou het tekort oplopen tot 43 miljoen.
Ryanair kreeg in 2004 al een EU-boete van 4 miljoen euro, maar het EU-Hof van Justitie vernietigde die beslissing wegens procedurefouten. Almunia heropende en verbreedde het onderzoek tot de kosten die aangerekend worden voor het gebruik van luchthaveninfrastructuur in heel het Waalse gewest.[/code]

Note: don't shoot the messenger, I won't debate this anymore as it doesn't get more clear than that.

Personal feelings:
It's sad that it has come to this. But unlike Sabena, we can't pull out the excuse that the warning signs weren't there since quite a long time.

[Flanker2]

Towards the future (this one we can debate):
It comes down to what LH will do or not do. After all, it's their company and their job to invest or pull the plug. What if LH is mulling to integrate the African network under its new Wings platform? It makes a lot of sense.

In the next move, the small regional subsidiary Eurowings, whose operating costs are about 30% lower than Lufthansa’s, will be expanded into a ‘European’ airline from spring 2015 onwards. Its fleet of relatively costly regional jets will be replaced by up to up to 23 A320s. The first Eurowings base outside Germany will be in Basel with 2-4 jets. The ‘new’ Eurowings will take over Swiss flights to European destinations early next year in competition to Easyjet. Similar defensive moves are likely in Belgium and Austria.

http://www.fvw.com/lufthansa-low-cost-w ... 3739/11245

[quixoticguide]

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=54699

Emirates will add around 10 new destinations in the next decade in Africa.

[Inquirer]

Good morning,

I had to search for this topic on the second page of the history log, so I don't think it got reported yet due to all the hysteria surrounding epidemics these days, but just saw that the accelerating growth figures we've seen from Brussels since the start of the year, continue. And even pick up more pace.

They now report a 19,5% passenger growth for September vs same month last year and even a 21.1% passenger growth on Europe!

Edit:
just saw there's a post about it in the latest news area, so I will include a link to it then:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=54750

[Flanker2]

I quote Tolipanebas from over 3 years ago:

Flanker wrote:
Why open a second floor in your restaurant and pay extra for electricity, gas, rent, personnel, when your first floor is only 60% full on average? Lower the price a little bit on the first floor and make sure you get it 90% full. You achieve the same results as opening the second floor, without the extra costs and make more profits.

Which is basically what happened, you know?

The 20+ strong RJ fleet is packed to a much better capacity now than in the past, while in the mean time our roofterrace was opened up for lunch and diner for the first time too with the addition of the extra capacity those 4 A319F now offer. Nobody has built a second floor as that would mean adding 15 or even 20 A319F or so, which ironically was YOUR idea one day, remember?

3 years later, still increasing load factors, bigger aircraft, great success, we're on the right track, etc...
It's getting really old, but the end result stays pretty much the same.

[Pocahontas]

Thanks Flanker for your contribution on this forum.

[nordikcam]

Thanks Flanker for your contribution on this forum.

+1