Brussels Airlines in 2024

[Matt]

kind of surprised by the United announcement:

New route: IAD-DSS I thought they wanted to feed SN a bit? or did I misunderstand?

[JOVAN2]

kind of surprised by the United announcement:

New route: IAD-DSS I thought they wanted to feed SN a bit? or did I misunderstand?

Good Joke this UA who would channel PAX via the famous Africa Hub in BRU.

UA will also double their flights to ACCRA from Feb. 25.

UA does not need SN nor BRU

[oldblueeyes]

kind of surprised by the United announcement:

New route: IAD-DSS I thought they wanted to feed SN a bit? or did I misunderstand?

The announcement was solely that ZA and LH Group are working on Code shares on certain routes.

This does not mean that on both sides the partners are not free to do what they want beide punctual cooperation.

As LH is flying directly US airports outside of the Hubs without Routing via UA hibs, UA can fly whatever destinations they get critical muss on their own.

Business as usual, nothing more, nothing less.

[Flanker2]

Last saturday there was an interview with CS -CEO of LH Group in De Tijd.
Usual complaints about EU allowing access to European market too esaily.
The Middle East and Chinese suck away customers with cheap prices and big government support, while EU Commission gives fines, issues very difficult regulations for European airlines. He is right about this, but the European airlines should maybe do more to defend their interest (idem for farmer, car-industry, etc...)

About SN it is the same story as always: not enough this (benefits,..), too much that (strikes, social unrest...).
He forgets that he is CEO since 2008 so he has the mandate and the power to change things for the better.
Strikes are not the monopoly of SN, the whole LH Group suffers from it.

Since 2008 the LH Group and Mr. CS have been in charge of SN, and decide de-facto about everything there.
The main activity at SN and in BRU was to drain PAX away and re-structure again and again so as to make SN a cheap company with very old fleet.
He even wanted to integrate SN into Eurowings.
SN has always been (since 2008) a malnourished child for LH.
No surprise results remain poor and SN remains small and fragile.
It also makes BRU a mini-mini hub with few destinations , few connections with European business centers.

LH Group had so many chances and so much time to make and take market share from AF-KLM with CDG and AMS.

Look how quickly AF-KLM is integrating SAS and CPH as a real member of their growth strategy.
New destinations, in EU and USA. New programms, positive news. (see luchtvaartnieuws, simply flying, aviation 24 and general press and media).
A real collaboration..
The French and Dutch must be amused to see the missed chances and lost opportunities which are a result of German stubborness.

Jovan, this is what Flanker2 said a good 12 years ago, but no one would listen including yourself.
LH wasn't buying SN to invest in it, it was just to take control of BRU and use them to compete in Africa.

Things are about to get worse for SN though.
Depending on how ITA integrates into LH, SN may gradually shift Africa to FCO, which is much better positioned to serve it with the added advantages of being within narrowbody range and having lower labour costs. So only a matter of time and establishing traffic rights.
Also, Spain, Southern France and Italy now extending all the way south to Palermo are the new European sun belt, thanks to lower labour costs for employers and better lifestyle which is becoming very attractive for Generation Y and Generation Z as well as the new retirees from Generation X.
So bad that some places in Spain are now actively kicking out tourists.
If you look at recent DL and UA announcements, you can't deny that Italy is attracting a lot of traffic.

So I see SN get stripped off of Africa eventually but I could see them becoming more of a TATL hub with A321XLR's.
Or at least, that's what I would do.

[oldblueeyes]

The further consolidation in Europe will have not only winners, for sure.
TATL there is anyhow an oversupply in the market.

[JOVAN2]

Last saturday there was an interview with CS -CEO of LH Group in De Tijd.
Usual complaints about EU allowing access to European market too esaily.
The Middle East and Chinese suck away customers with cheap prices and big government support, while EU Commission gives fines, issues very difficult regulations for European airlines. He is right about this, but the European airlines should maybe do more to defend their interest (idem for farmer, car-industry, etc...)

About SN it is the same story as always: not enough this (benefits,..), too much that (strikes, social unrest...).
He forgets that he is CEO since 2008 so he has the mandate and the power to change things for the better.
Strikes are not the monopoly of SN, the whole LH Group suffers from it.

Since 2008 the LH Group and Mr. CS have been in charge of SN, and decide de-facto about everything there.
The main activity at SN and in BRU was to drain PAX away and re-structure again and again so as to make SN a cheap company with very old fleet.
He even wanted to integrate SN into Eurowings.
SN has always been (since 2008) a malnourished child for LH.
No surprise results remain poor and SN remains small and fragile.
It also makes BRU a mini-mini hub with few destinations , few connections with European business centers.

LH Group had so many chances and so much time to make and take market share from AF-KLM with CDG and AMS.

Look how quickly AF-KLM is integrating SAS and CPH as a real member of their growth strategy.
New destinations, in EU and USA. New programms, positive news. (see luchtvaartnieuws, simply flying, aviation 24 and general press and media).
A real collaboration..
The French and Dutch must be amused to see the missed chances and lost opportunities which are a result of German stubborness.

Jovan, this is what Flanker2 said a good 12 years ago, but no one would listen including yourself.
LH wasn't buying SN to invest in it, it was just to take control of BRU and use them to compete in Africa.

Things are about to get worse for SN though.
Depending on how ITA integrates into LH, SN may gradually shift Africa to FCO, which is much better positioned to serve it with the added advantages of being within narrowbody range and having lower labour costs. So only a matter of time and establishing traffic rights.
Also, Spain, Southern France and Italy now extending all the way south to Palermo are the new European sun belt, thanks to lower labour costs for employers and better lifestyle which is becoming very attractive for Generation Y and Generation Z as well as the new retirees from Generation X.
So bad that some places in Spain are now actively kicking out tourists.
If you look at recent DL and UA announcements, you can't deny that Italy is attracting a lot of traffic.

So I see SN get stripped off of Africa eventually but I could see them becoming more of a TATL hub with A321XLR's.
Or at least, that's what I would do.

Well, i must say I was a LH fan years ago, and.
still am a Honorary Senator in Miles&more.of
But it become very clear that when CS become CEO he did nothing to make SN (and OS) successful. On the contrary.
The only policy was to suck BRU and SN and handle BRU as any regional airport in Germany.

He never came with a clear strategy to make SN work and use the strategic position of BRU to make AF-KL suffer.
Big disappointment and now even LH become a problem company. His own words.

But CEO s are apparently specialists in mismanagement (see Boeing corporation).
Too bad. The take-over of ITA will be chaotic and cost jobs and money. CS will blame the Italians.

The decline of German business and companies is a sad example of poor management and arrogance.

[Miqvell]

And in fact, some capacity reduction...

2x daily Newark to start 3 months later than planned (June).

[JOVAN2]

And in fact, some capacity reduction...

2x daily Newark to start 3 months later than planned (June).

Meanwhile, UA announces a major rxpansion of routes ( VP Quayle tonight on CNN)
.to Ulan Bator , among other places.

To BRU ..,: nada. Nougabollen

[Atlantis]

kind of surprised by the United announcement:

New route: IAD-DSS I thought they wanted to feed SN a bit? or did I misunderstand?

Also a surprise to me. Dakar is among the most popular African destinations for SN. If one destination, besides Kinshasa, can be flown as a single destination, than it is Dakar. Extra feeder from UA would have been welcome. Strange... but I was surprised too when I saw it.

[lumumba]

kind of surprised by the United announcement:

New route: IAD-DSS I thought they wanted to feed SN a bit? or did I misunderstand?

Also a surprise to me. Dakar is among the most popular African destinations for SN. If one destination, besides Kinshasa, can be flown as a single destination, than it is Dakar. Extra feeder from UA would have been welcome. Strange... but I was surprised too when I saw it.

But it's a low yield destination much lower than FIH so I'm not sure it's so important there are a lot of competitors,not sure it's a big cash producer.

[oldblueeyes]

@Jovan

The Austrian and SN takeovers were not aimed to replay failures from the past.

Austrian had over 100 planes, mainly small, dreaming about a Eastern Hub and burning money. Today they do not burn anymore, focus forced by the rapid LCC Evolution on large aircraft and the Hub function was consolidated in MUC.

SN was as re- start a mix of an LCC - Virgin Express and a regional airline, with some long haul routes around.
There was never a plan to enter a Cash burning battle against AF/KLM.

ITA - let's see, as an otganisation they are in good shape, restructured, have a Hub with growth potential.

LH itself is struggeling - internal demand has the same Problems as in France, politics driven. And the fleet has the Boeing bottleneck with currently 40 long haul aircraft to late ( fairly here to say that the seats are partiall a LH problem, American has the same certification issues).

But...those who are mastering their crises survive.

[Atlantis]

And in fact, some capacity reduction...

2x daily Newark to start 3 months later than planned (June).

It's even at the end of June, 27 June. The flight will arrive at 07:00 am and depart again at 08:45 am

[travellover]

Obviously, adding an amount one more A333 to the fleet each year, in 2025, 2026, 2027, is not to open north american destinations but keeping on developping their core business that is Africa.

[RoMax]

kind of surprised by the United announcement:

New route: IAD-DSS I thought they wanted to feed SN a bit? or did I misunderstand?

Also a surprise to me. Dakar is among the most popular African destinations for SN. If one destination, besides Kinshasa, can be flown as a single destination, than it is Dakar. Extra feeder from UA would have been welcome. Strange... but I was surprised too when I saw it.

Air Senegal stopped their direct flights to New York and Delta was running away with most of the direct USA-Senegal volume anyway. UA going in this market head-on with DL on a non-stop connection helps the overal UA/AC/LHG position in the Dakar market which indirectly also benefits SN individually.

Taking away market share from the DL/AF-KL axle on NATL-AFR will not work by trying to get every possible expansion through BRU only, that's obvious I think.

[fcw]

Air Senegal stopped their direct flights to New York and Delta was running away with most of the direct USA-Senegal volume anyway. UA going in this market head-on with DL on a non-stop connection helps the overal UA/AC/LHG position in the Dakar market which indirectly also benefits SN individually.

Taking away market share from the DL/AF-KL axle on NATL-AFR will not work by trying to get every possible expansion through BRU only, that's obvious I think.

Competition will put pressure on the fares and a detour via Europe will becomes less attractive. Every direct flight US-AFR puts serious pressure on SN’s business model which is aimed at people accepting multi stop detours to save a bit of money. The USA-BRU-triangular to AFI will become less and less profitable with every nonstop flight. LH knows this, hence the idea of increasing the feed from the USA and operate non stop flights to Africa. UA are defending their own business model of course and rightfully so, but don’t try to sell this as being part of the big plan, because it isn’t!

[rwandan-flyer]

US airlines could add more flights to Africa, but there is a strange agreement with European Airlines. Here are what a A.net member told in 2022. I can give you his name, is Sean Mendis who has worked for various airlines in Africa (read below)

An exemple, the demand between Minneapolis and East Africa is very good. The biggest demand is for Nairobi.

MSP NBO : 54 716 pax for the point to point in 2023, higher than Frankfurt Nairobi, New York JFK Nairobi, CDG Nairobi or Brussels Miami.
Addis Ababa Minneapolis : 14 012 pax
Entebbe Minneapolis : 3 495 pax

I don't know if a non stop route with a Delta A330Neo could work, but we have to add the demand beyond Minneapolis with the Delta Airlines hub and beyond Nairobi with the Kenya Airways. And probably the same thing with United that could serve Cairo and Addis Ababa (2 of the 3 Star Alliance hubs in Africa)

Minnesota hosts a huge Somalian Diaspora but Kenya Airways has just suspended again flights to Soamlia. However Ethiopian eyes Minneapolis.

About Dakar Washington, Brussels Dakar has very high point to point demand (54 866 pax in 2023). No worry.

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#50

2 years ago

rukundo wrote:
It seems that US Airlines are not really interested to serve alliance hubs in Africa.



Quite simply they have entered into anti-trust immunized agreements with other alliance carriers that basically carves up African traffic via the European hubs on a revenue sharing basis not dissimilar to colonial times.

[sn26567]

And in fact, some capacity reduction...

2x daily Newark to start 3 months later than planned (June).

Meanwhile, UA announces a major expansion of routes ( VP Quayle tonight on CNN)
.to Ulan Bator , among other places.

To BRU ..,: nada. Nougabollen

And capacity reductions elsewhere, especially to LHR (but they do not issue press releases about it!):

United Airlines cuts two daily LHR flights next summer:
• LHR to Los Angeles (LAX) 2x -> 1x daily
• LHR to Washington DC (IAD) 3x -> 2x daily (daytime flight dropped again)

American recently reduced LHR-LAX/ORD by a daily flight and Delta cut LHR-LAX and reduced LHR-SLC/DTW.

[lumumba]

Air Senegal stopped their direct flights to New York and Delta was running away with most of the direct USA-Senegal volume anyway. UA going in this market head-on with DL on a non-stop connection helps the overal UA/AC/LHG position in the Dakar market which indirectly also benefits SN individually.

Taking away market share from the DL/AF-KL axle on NATL-AFR will not work by trying to get every possible expansion through BRU only, that's obvious I think.

Competition will put pressure on the fares and a detour via Europe will becomes less attractive. Every direct flight US-AFR puts serious pressure on SN’s business model which is aimed at people accepting multi stop detours to save a bit of money. The USA-BRU-triangular to AFI will become less and less profitable with every nonstop flight. LH knows this, hence the idea of increasing the feed from the USA and operate non stop flights to Africa. UA are defending their own business model of course and rightfully so, but don’t try to sell this as being part of the big plan, because it isn’t!

I don't agree with this, they increase their market share. For example, if they do three or four flights a week for businessmen who need a lot of flexibility, they can return via Brussels.

[longwings]

Meanwhile, UA announces a major expansion of routes ( VP Quayle tonight on CNN)

And capacity reductions elsewhere, especially to LHR (but they do not issue press releases about it!):

2025 will still be a year when a large share of new aircraft will replace older aircraft rather than expand the fleet, so it is not surprising that new routes come at the expense of existing routes.

LHR also is not the money-maker it used to be, especially upfront.

[lumumba]

Again no flight to Luanda today like last week this means they only have 1 flight a week !?
Looks they gone pull out of this market.