5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

[teddybAIR]

Air DC,

is that still a live project? When I passed the airport earlier this week I still saw these airframes in front of the lufthansa technics hangar...boy, they must cost a fortune in long term storage!

[BrightCedars]

Making the hub of Air DC in FIH would have made sense locally, but to server Western Africa it doesn't make sense to go so much further South and then backtrack North.

As far as relocating Air DC in BZV, there are still many routes that it will want to fly to the DRC and that ain't gonna happen without its consent. They might as well work on getting it done in the DRC in that case, or stop wasting time and money on this and just write it off.

[Vinnie-Winnie]

Yeah i said it has been pursued before! That is why i'm avoiding FIH and instead proposing another airport! Also why I am proposing a combination of direct and indirect flights to get most benefits!

Question is is the market there?

[NCB]

I really like your idea but it sounds rather inefficient as short haul planes have horrible CASM & RASM on long distance flights! U really need to have mega yields to make a venture such as this profitable which by making one stop flights is not gonna happen!

Vinnie, I also used to think that A32X should have horrible CASM, but I have done an extensive study on this narrowbody class and I realised that I'm wrong.
Some proof can be found here, p.129 for A321:
http://books.google.be/books?id=FspVowS ... ce&f=false

A319 fuel burn will get down below 3 ton per hour average on routes above 3 hours.
A333, with twice the capacity will ask for twice as much fuel, around 6 tons average on longer routes.
The A332 has engines with better SFC, more efficient wings, but the fuselage isn't efficient: cross section asks for 2 aisles for 8 seats, which means 4 seats per aisle. A32X is 6 seats per aisle, meaning higher seat density per unit of floor surface, lower drag.
A330 will have the edge on crew cost and mx cost, but A319 has lower ownership cost/leasing cost, higher utilisation potential. The gap on mx cost can be closed by in-house maintenance capabilities for A319.
Especially ownership costs is very significant, just do the math: 200k per month divided by 30 days or 600k per month divided by 30 days. Around $7000 per day compared to $20 000. Basically, for the same utilisation you can operate 3 A319's at the ownership cost of 1 A333. As you achieve higher utilisation with A319 thanks to shorthaul capability, the advantage will be even larger...
CASM will be about the same as A330 for A319.
A320 and A321 would actually beat the A333 on CASM, but they're limited in range.
Except... that if you're following the latest developments, Airbus is looking at 20% lower fuel burn reengining.
Lower fuel burn, same MTOW, same fuel capacity = more range!!

I think that a hub in Africa is not bad an idea but limited in long-term capabilties due to the fact that pax flying further than BRU into Europe will be stuck with at least 2 connections, which is not practical.
Other than that, if SN were to have a hub in Africa, I'd put it in Dakar or better even, Nigeria where LH is building focus operation and MX facilities; Central Africa and Chad are not conveniently located for the West coast of Africa, where 80% of the Europe/Africa market is located and because the hub must have a significant hub to hub capability. Senegal is an open market right now as there is no local main airline after Air Senegal's collapse.

I thank Kabila for the support I am more in favor of non-stop operations actually, for efficiency reasons.

[Conti764]

Vinnie-Winnie:

SN is currently looking at Brazzaville to establish such a 'hub' and to locate Air DC there in stead of Kinshasa.

If this will go ahead or not I don't know for sure, but they are looking into it. Maybe someone else has more info?

So is AirDC going through? I heard LH was not in favor of such construction... Maybe recall it Pan African Airways or something since AirDC is referring to the DR Congo...

Anyway, AirDC could become a real asset to both SN and Star Alliance if they play it right. I guess there is huge potential for a save and comfortabele intra-Africa airline in some regions where air transportation does not have a good reputation. It could also open up some new markets.

On the longer term, if the company would be a real success, SN could send some of the current A330's to AirDC to perform high demand intra-African routes.

[cathay belgium]

Hi,

On the longer term, if the company would be a real success, SN could send some of the current A330's to AirDC to perform high demand intra-African routes.

Sending some A330's to Africa ??? HELLO !!!
Please if they comes available keep them in OUR fleet first,
we need SOME extra aircraft for our flights to Asia,JFK,BOS,... !!

You can sent some old avro's,737,...
They will do their job for searching a market and if there is something...

I don't know but is there a high demand of intra-africa air travel?
I know there should be, but is it profitable ( for us ? ) ?
( Incl. all the problems of AFI we already discussed in other topics. )

CX-B

[NCB]

I don't know but is there a high demand of intra-africa air travel?

Lack of road structures often make aircraft the only way to travel between cities and villages.
Demand is there, but budget for travelling is rather on the low side, so most people choose the cheapest solutions. Often that means travelling with cattle or freight in the cabin, on aircraft without decent seats if any at all, and that are maintained by self-declared mechanics with little to no training.

Basically, that means that as a decent operator flying according to the norms and rules, to be competitive you have to operate on very low yields unless you can build a customer base that can afford to pay for safety and minimal comfort, and tourists connecting from Europe. The prospects of such an operation may not be that good to day, but with GDP growth of 15-20% annually in many African countries, that kind of demand may become the norm within the next 10 years within many countries in Africa.

Operating A330's from a hub in Africa can be very lucrative, more lucrative than operating transatlantic from BRU. But intra-continental would be a financial suicide. The A330's long turn around times, low yields, etc...
Actually, if the intention is to build a full-grown hub in Africa, DKR with its central position in the Atlantic would be ideal for reaching North America, South America and the rest of Africa, and excellent for cargo. It's an important gateway for LH Cargo to South America.
Otherwise, LOS would be the best option for SN, because of a more Africa-friendly position compared to DKR and seen that LH is establishing a hub operation in Nigeria. LH is looking at Abuja, but the real potential is in Lagos, no doubt. The issue is that LH is trying to build their own hub in Africa, and could block any intentions of SN to do it for them... Also as said before, there is a connections problem for hub to hub operations.


Actually FIH as a hub was a pretty bad idea as it would mean that many passengers from and to the Nigeria/Cameroon/Senegal/Ivory Coast region would be looking at awful inconvenience. Also, carrying a passenger from A to B via Z must be done in such manner that the distance is not awfully longer.

Example: customer must fly BRU-ABJ, great circle distance 5100km. Hub is in FIH, so customer must fly BRU-FIH-ABJ: great circle distance 8600km. Basically, this customer will have to fly an additional 3500km, which means that he will also cost more to carry for SN, to be exact about 70% more.
You can charge the additional cost to the customer and he will fly non-stop with other airlines or you must be cheaper to compensate for one-stop and longer travel time while having a higher cost base, thus earning nothing, which is horrendously stupid...

[Conti764]

Sending some A330's to Africa ??? HELLO !!!
Please if they comes available keep them in OUR fleet first,
we need SOME extra aircraft for our flights to Asia,JFK,BOS,... !!

I am talking about the long term. The current 330's are old and not getting any younger... There is a time when people do not want to fly on old planes with no personal IFE anymore. I expect SN will eventually buy new equipment or younger second hand equipment and have to find a solution for the current four A330's... If there is a market in Africa they could very well serve there and make some extra money...

And flights to Asia are not going to happen soon, JFK is a dream and only BOS a possibility, but only with the smaller A330-200's.

[tolipanebas]

SN plans to deploy a 5th A330 as from June next year.

[teddybAIR]

Actually, how old are the A330's Brussels Airlines currently has in the fleet?

[sdbelgium]

Around 1994.

[Boeing767copilot]

Interesting:

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=18362

[continental060]

I hope they will have again a few A340's and then fly to Newark and Tokyo. The other destinations can stay and the four A330's too.

[teddybAIR]

Continental, I'm afraid that that's just wishful thinking. And why would they need a340's to fly to newark? They could do the same with A330's and enjoy the advantage of fleet commonality, less engine maintenance, etc. Avoiding ETOPS regulations could be an argument.

Regards,

[NCB]

Interesting:

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=18362

Now that at least is an interesting article (other world than 20 million to open new Africa destinations bull).

I see that SN is looking at streamlining B737/A319 into one type. Good judgement call but old news, they said that a year ago already.
Then read: "initiated a search for a 5th A330", so they are yet far from finding one.

Lufthansa indeed said that SN would be profitable in 2010, but they also said that OS would be profitable in 2011,... very optimistic to say the least... or maybe putting some pressure on SN and
OS?

A340 capacity is also good but only for Africa... SN need a significant longhaul capacity boost before the world cup in South Africa for 1 month of very high-yielding charters, but that shouldn't happen at any price, given that it's a rather short period. 700 000 tickets have been sold to date, and this number is expected to double when the final draw is announced in December. Many locals can't afford the high prices of the last matches, so most will be high yield travellers from Europe and Asia, North America...
It wouldn't be too much to say that SN can look at selling 1000 seats daily ( 4 x A333 or 9 A319's ) both ways to meet the demand, the matches will take place in 10 different stadiums across the country.

Runway available at the smaller counties:
Durban 2440 meter, Bloemfontein 2559 meter, Polokwane 2560 meter, Port Elizabeth 1980 meter, Pretoria 1828 meter, Rustenburg 1225 meter. Some of these numbers are tough to meet with A333 one-stop, let alone non-stop. Some can't be done with A333 at all. A319 can do most 1 stop (nigeria-area), 2-stop for the shorter runways.

Basically, SN would do good by adding some A319's around March/April that they can use very profitably during May-June to incorporate them into the summer schedule after that while they get rid of B737's later in the winter, and fit a cabin for Africa during the winter.
They are easy to fill without having to feed the soccer tourists into BRU, but fly them to South Africa directly from airports across Europe, and bring them back the same day after the match or the next day.
Flights around this period easily sell for 2000EUR return, just do the math. In 2 return flights you can pay for one month worth of aircraft leases, and the tournament lasts 1 month...
Not only that, SN will also have the possibility to charter the A319's/A333's for the Shanghai Expo 2010, expected to be history's largest expo event running May to October 2010.
2 years later in 2012, this strategy will pay off again as they would be able to boost capacity into the London Olympics with adequate capacity, with or without feeding from all over Europe.

Why are these events so important? Because they cause mass-movements of people and airlines can earn in a month what they make on scheduled operations in 3 months.

[teddybAIR]

Lufthansa indeed said that SN would be profitable in 2010

Actually, Lufthansa expects SN to become profitable...it is more a signal towards SN management than a forecast, really.

[LX-LGX]

I see that SN is looking at streamlining B737/A319 into one type. Good judgement call but old news, they said that a year ago already.
Then read: "initiated a search for a 5th A330", so they are yet far from finding one.

Lufthansa indeed said that SN would be profitable in 2010, but they also said that OS would be profitable in 2011,... very optimistic to say the least... or maybe putting some pressure on SN and
OS?

A340 capacity is also good but only for Africa... SN need a significant longhaul capacity boost before the world cup in South Africa for 1 month of very high-yielding charters, but that shouldn't happen at any price, given that it's a rather short period. 700 000 tickets have been sold to date, and this number is expected to double when the final draw is announced in December. Many locals can't afford the high prices of the last matches, so most will be high yield travellers from Europe and Asia, North America...
It wouldn't be too much to say that SN can look at selling 1000 seats daily ( 4 x A333 or 9 A319's ) both ways to meet the demand, the matches will take place in 10 different stadiums across the country.

Runway available at the smaller counties:
Durban 2440 meter, Bloemfontein 2559 meter, Polokwane 2560 meter, Port Elizabeth 1980 meter, Pretoria 1828 meter, Rustenburg 1225 meter. Some of these numbers are tough to meet with A333 one-stop, let alone non-stop. Some can't be done with A333 at all. A319 can do most 1 stop (nigeria-area), 2-stop for the shorter runways.

Basically, SN would do good by adding some A319's around March/April that they can use very profitably during May-June to incorporate them into the summer schedule after that while they get rid of B737's later in the winter, and fit a cabin for Africa during the winter.
They are easy to fill without having to feed the soccer tourists into BRU, but fly them to South Africa directly from airports across Europe, and bring them back the same day after the match or the next day.
Flights around this period easily sell for 2000EUR return, just do the math. In 2 return flights you can pay for one month worth of aircraft leases, and the tournament lasts 1 month...
Not only that, SN will also have the possibility to charter the A319's/A333's for the Shanghai Expo 2010, expected to be history's largest expo event running May to October 2010.
2 years later in 2012, this strategy will pay off again as they would be able to boost capacity into the London Olympics with adequate capacity, with or without feeding from all over Europe.

Why are these events so important? Because they cause mass-movements of people and airlines can earn in a month what they make on scheduled operations in 3 months.

Unfortunately, this looks to be all Wikipedia, Google and airbus.com. Good tools, no bad word from me about them, but when aviation matters, one needs other sources too. This is what Wiki and Google haven't told you:

1) South Africa's department of Transport has announced months ago that it will not give one-time foreign carriers slots during the World Cup. Only airlines already flying to/from JNB/DUR/CPT nowadays will be allowed in June/July next year.

2) Like tolipanebas already has told you before: do not rely on the radius that Airbus puts online. A 333 cannot (never) make it from BRU to JNB.

3) South Africa is a longhaul destination. The A319 is not a longhaul aircraft for scheduled flights. Just think about the meal service in a one-ail aircraft, the queue at the toilets, ...

4) 1.000 tickets a day for Brussels Airlines? Belgium is not qualified and the Belgian soccer team has exactly 3 supporters, joining them abroad (the 4th frequent traveller passed away last month). And now you think that Brussels Airlines will sell 1.000 tickets a day? Not even 500 Belgian tourists in total will go to the 31-day World Cup tournament. And that includes a few nice incentive groups.

5) Seems Wiki hasn't told you about the disaster for the aviation & travel trade regarding the Olympic Games 2008 in China: expensive tickets, high yield, fantastic. But no bookings, resulting in far less visitors from Belgium to China for that period, compared to the same period in 2007.

6) 2.000 Euro for an Economy Class, JNB-BRU-JNB? You must be joking. Tourists are not that desperate. JNB costs around 800/900 Euro nowadays and one can easily find tickets at 1.000/1.100 Euro for WC2010 tickets (dep and/or ret between 01/06/2010 and 31/07/2010). Yes, the last seats will be sold for 2.000 Euro. But will they be sold indeed?

7) your airport list is quite funny: you're sending Brussels Airlines to some non-international airports in South Africa. Quid customs and passport controls...

8) ask Google about La Merci: Durban's new international airport, open from May 2010. And check this one: FAKN/MQP: KMIA-airport has a nice 2.940m runway.

9) This is what Wikipedia and Google don't know (yet) about OPS for Pretoria-airport (Wonderboom) during the World Cup: scheduled flights from host city to host city, charter flights between host cities and accommodation, media flights, FIFA movements to/from Pretoria and Rustenburg, refueling centre. Source: SA department of Transport.

Same applies for all your other comments about Brussels Airlines. You know a lot about aviation, surely more then I do. But your stories about South Africa proof that it's all too complicated for you. So please do not teach Brussels Airlines any more lessons on how they must run their company. Because most of the people in charge at Brussels Airlines now worked for Sabena before, and they do know South Africa.

[NCB]

South Africa's department of Transport has announced months ago that it will not give one-time foreign carriers slots during the World Cup. Only airlines already flying to/from JNB/DUR/CPT nowadays will be allowed in June/July next year.

Source?
I know of at least 12 airlines not serving South Africa that are offering charters for the world cup at this time.


A333, especially in SN configuration, no problem to fly BRU-JNB non-stop, nor the way back. There won't even be any seats needed to made empty and seen that it's charters, luggage will be lighter, no cargo.

If you read well, I'm talking of a charter operation to SA with A319's, not scheduled ops.

1000 seats return from Europe is no problem.
No one said anything about BRU... that's why A319's are handy for such charter ops... you can fly a load of 130 pax from Toulouse or Marseille or Zurich or Milan, etc... straight (1/2-stop) into SA.
If you work with A333 you need to feed the flights into BRU, not convenient.

Just did an Orbitz search June 30th and found the cheapest about 2000$ return with SAA and we're still 7 months ahead with draws yet to be announced. Last-minute tickets will be very hot, count 3000-5000EUR return. Tickets for the stadium of the final usually go up to 5-10KEUR on the black market.
Soccer fans are not regular tourists.

The main reason the Beijing Olympics weren't that popular was the rather poor worldwide state of the
economy at the time and very bleak outlooks.
Airline tickets were expensive, not due to high yields appetite but record fuel prices. Traffic was down worldwide.

For World Cup or similar big events, it is standard practice to establish customs facilities at non-international airports. Accessibility from abroad is a required criterium to be elligible for staging the WC.
I can't follow everything at the same time, I only took airport data from the great circle mapper.

I'm not teaching anyone any lessons. Just discussing possibilities with other aviation enthusiasts like you.

[tolipanebas]

I'm not teaching anyone any lessons. Just discussing possibilities with other aviation enthusiasts like you.

You're just daydreaming I am afraid.

Not going to discuss this any further in depth, because you clearly don't want to take the word of somebody who's in the know, but if you really think our A330-300s can make it non-stop back from JNB to BRU fully loaded like you've implied, you're simply said: nuts!

Even from nearer-by NBO we're sometimes payload restricted and this is not from graphs I found on the net or from a glossy Airbus flyer, but from real world operational experience!

We'd need at least an A340-300 for that...

[Conti764]

We'd need at least an A340-300 for that...

A little sidestep from the discussion, but does SN have any plans to operate a small number of A343 to some destinations or are they only interested in A332/3's and wait for the long haul replacement order 787/350?