They think that the 777 will win over tha A340 while i think otherwise simply because no deliveries will start until 2010...
Time slot of aircraft delivery matters only when an airline wants them earlier than available. Thus, this factor may put A340 in play, but it's not a big factor at all. It's all come down to performance, costs, financing, among others. The edge is still on the 777's side. As far as the A350/787 battle, it would make more sense if Qantas order the 787's for themselves and the A350's for Jetstar.
To me it's a no brainer Airbus win because by 2010 Airbus will have new aircrafts to perhaps bust the 777, but obviously Boeing recently is the one with better reputation..
Boeing vs Airbus Assessment A350 Vs 787
While there is a lot of rampant speculation and opinion about the subject, I have yet to see anyone really assess it.
Probably the first important aspect is that this class of aircraft is the most fought over segment (based on aircraft produced for it, DC10, L1011, MD11, B767, A300/310, A330 and 787 (and even the 757 penetrated the lower segment of the market).
This is the area where Airbus made its true fame, and where they should have put their resources defending (rather than the A380, not to mention leaving a huge gap that Boeing could waltz in and fill with a derivative 747).
Their statement that the 747-8 is warmed over 60s technology is incredibly ludicrous, in light of the fact that the A350 had its originations in 1969, and is merely state of the art, nothing technically advanced (well the engines, but those come from the 787). And advertising t the A350 is “all new”, sheese, it should just be called an A330-400 (or 800 to reflect a mature aircraft ala the A380 which is not even tested yet).
Frankly I expect the 787 is going to have its share of teething troubles. While the composite fuselage is what’s raved about, no one is talking about the other huge changes, that being the move to electric power rather than bleed air. Lots of glitch possibilities there.
What the 787 does have is all the growth possibilities that the 777 had when it came out, and its going to be the way the next generation jets are built.
In that regard Boeing is going to win the vast majority of the orders the same as the A300/330 has done (it was certainly the most successful in its class). Airbus is going to waste all the time and effort on an aircraft that might get 30% of the market, and has not further development possibilities.
The military has taken to the concept of getting into your opponents decision cycle. Hit the enemy so hard and fast, they cannot comprehend what’s happening, and make the wrong decision or poor decisions.
Boeing has done that with Airbus who once had Boeing flummoxed. Its going to take Airbus 4 years to put a new wing on the A330, in the meantime, Boeing has 3 models of the 777 hitting the skies (re-wings if you will), a 747 re-wing and fuselage extension, as well as 3 and likely 4 models of the 787 in development.
It will be interesting to see if Airbus ever works its way out of the hole they have put themselves in, or backslide to being a 30% of the market producer
Well CXRules, what i said was based on assuming the new A340s will beat the 777... and i hope so because i'm more in favour of Airbus ...
While the A350 has some aspects coming from past models, most of the plane is new.. I mean it's just part of cost saving if something old is not inferior to something new... What's old? is it the fuselage or something??
Airbus has got to spring off more variants.. apart from what is announced now, the only other thing is the A389 while there is not even enough variantions to match the 777 and 787 family...
Whether the A380 is a mistake, or whether Airbus should try to defend the A330-market - you never know.. Airbus was (and is) on a rise, and they had the resources to build something iconic and something that will possibly make them eliminate Boeing's iconic 747.. And this remains a question, at the moment it doesn't look like the A380 will be highly supported because mid-far planes are preferred, but 10-20 years later, who knows? These large planes will stay in production for like 30-40 years easily...
Cathay, Boeing finalize the deal (source Boeing.com)
SEATTLE, Dec. 15, 2005 -- The Boeing Company [NYSE: BA] and Cathay Pacific Airways yesterday signed a definitive agreement for the purchase of 12 Boeing 777-300ER (Extended Range) jetliners and purchase rights for 20 additional 777-300ERs.
Cathay Pacific announced its intention to order the 12 aircraft, valued at approximately US$2.85 billion at list prices, earlier this month in Hong Kong.
Cathay Pacific plans to take delivery of the new 777-300ERs between September 2007 and July 2010. The 777-300ERs will be powered by the General Electric GE 90-115BL2 engine, the world's largest and most powerful commercial jet engine. Separately, Cathay Pacific plans to lease four more 777-300ERs from International Lease Finance Corporation.
"This is one of the world's best airlines choosing one of the world's best airplanes," said Alan Mulally, president and CEO, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Cathay Pacific's reputation for exceptional passenger service and effective and profitable operations makes its selection of the 777-300ER especially rewarding."
An initial launch customer of the Boeing 777-200 and later of the 777-300, Cathay Pacific has played a critical role in the program's success and especially in shaping the performance capabilities and comfort standards of the 777 twinjet family. The 777 fuselage cross-section finally adopted by Boeing during the aircraft's design phase was originally proposed by Cathay Pacific. The airline currently operates 16 777-200s and -300s for regional operations, and with this order the carrier has endorsed the 777 family as the standard of its ultra-long-haul service for the future.
"These aircraft orders mark an exciting and significant milestone in the development of our airline," said Philip Chen, chief executive officer, Cathay Pacific Airways. "These aircraft will enhance our strength as a carrier and Hong Kong's position as a global hub and gateway to the Chinese Mainland."
The 777 family of airplanes is popular with passengers and airlines alike due to its fuel-efficient twin-engine design, high reliability, low operating costs, and comfortable and spacious interior. The 777-300ER carries 365 passengers up to 7,880 nautical miles (14,594 kilometers).
Recently, Boeing made enhancements to the 777-300ER that improve the airplane's overall fuel efficiency by 1.4 percent. This amount is in addition to the 2 percent fuel-burn improvement already proven in revenue service by airlines that currently operate the 777-300ER. The 1.4 percent improvement in fuel efficiency equates to an annual savings of approximately 200,000 gallons (757,000 liters) per aircraft.
With today's signing, Boeing has secured 127 orders for the 777 in 2005. Over the life of the 777 program, 43 airlines worldwide have placed 800 firm orders for 777s.
There is still a few months until the 'design freeze' for the A350.. Although the article says even the loser will sell some 1000 units, why be a loser when you can be a winner? With the A350 not arriving until 2010, a full 2 years later than the 787, why not do something radical to it that the 787 does not offer? I have no idea what they can do, but maybe improve materials and make it lighter? Or just hurry up and get more variants? Perhaps stretch it more to seat 50 more passengers or something?
Later on, i think for example, Cathay will replace their A330 or 777-200s with the A350, 787 is a bit small for both. Not much idea about SIA, but they are the most pissed off airline by the A380 delay, but the A350 has nothing that is VERY new or groundbreaking, so it looks like it'll be on time 2010 in service. But again 787 is too small for SIA, unless they will open up some new services.. Same to Emirates. But Emirates is so huge now that I think they might buy some A359s and 788s for different purposes... they are crazy, they are goign to order 1000 of these planes or something...
Perhaps stretch it more to seat 50 more passengers or something?
The problem with that is the bigger you make it, the heavier it is, cutting into the cost-savings that is the whole purpose of the airplane. The 787 is meant as a 767/A330 replacement which is why I think Boeing is hesitant about stretching it further (the 787-10) for Emirates. The purpose is to save fuel, extra weight cuts into cost-savings. Am I the only person who sees the correlation here?!?!?! Wake up Emirates, sure you can have a stretched 787, but you'll only get 5% savings!!!
"What's this button do?? I don't know, push it and find out................."
I think a stretched B787-10X will be better than the B777-200 because it is lighter and thus more fuel efficient. Also, more passenger capacity allows them to cut down operating unit costs in the area of labor, maintenances, etc. The flying range will be shorter, but for SIA and Emirates, they're looking for regional work-horse anyway, not ultra long haul.
As for Cathay, I believe their next order is the replacement for the B747-400, not the A330 or B777-200. The A333 and B772 are still relatively young. They don't need to replace them until after 2012. I will expect they order B747-8 in 2006, and they'll order either B787 or A350 in 2007 or 2008.
Well anything could be done right? But perhaps a few years later a stretched 787 will be announced when the 772 orders slows, and also to see whether the A350 really eats into the 772 too much.. A359 orders aren't really racking up even with the extra seats over the 789, so it they don't even NEED to stretch it at this point...
Probably a few years later they can have a brand new engine that is powerful for an even more major stretch, and it might be possible that the 787 can fully replace the 777 line in the future? And then maybe the A350 can fully take over the A330/A340?
I say at the outset I am a Boeing fan. It has been a depressing 15 years watching Airbus and the treasuries of France and Germany savage the US airframe makers, first killing Lockheed, and then McDonnell Douglass.
It is nice to have a respite from this with some innovative thinking coming from Puget Sound.
The 787 is a modern plane that is pushing the envelope on technology - all composite fuselage, wings, no bleed air, electronic windows, lower cabin altitude, 4 models, most effecient engines - designed for this airframe. Quiet, good price. The A350 is an advertisement, "Most Advanced Aircraft in World" - come on, can Airbus be any more arrogant. The plane is a warmed over 4th iteration of the A330, which is an iteration of the A300 from 1969. The key to the A350 success is for France and German taxpayers to help subsidize it to customers. It will enter service two yaers after the 787, an older design entering the market late - Airbus has stumbled, Noel twinky winky should get his walking papers.
The 777-200LR and the 777-300ER are being made out to be planes that are in peril. So much talk of 772 and 773 killers. But again, the 777 is a marvelous piece of aviation engineering. 115,000 LB thrust engines, no center bogey landing peg like A35/A346 adding 10,000 weight, 40,000 lbs lighter than A340, but carries more payload, and flies further, and flies higher and faster. Airbus will need to design an all new craft
Then the A380 with a backlog of 150 craft, 55% percent for one airline, and something like 15 orders this year to Boeing's 45 for the 747-400F and 747-8F. The new 747-8 will keep the heat on the A380, and the A380 is weak for cargo except pakages, and without a front loading door.
When demand for ultra large jets takes off, Boeing can introduce a flying wing that competes with newer technology for the A380 on economics.
It is easy to attack the one on top of the hill, but beware when you push them off, for they know the hill well. Now Airbus is stuck in a reactionary mode for the next 10 years.
watch Boeing to squeeze them on their best success, the A320, with a 787 like 797.
reacting on Fleabyte: it is very interesting to read your view how europeans destroyed Lockheed and McDonnell Douglas.
Can somebody send Fleabyte the list of european users of the last civilian aircrafts (3-star and MD-11) that were made by those 2 companies?
From now on, LTU and KLM can be regarded as destroyers of american companies because they buy their airplanes. I got it right?
Beyond just ranting, and raving - which is what I was doing, I think the one point is that French and German Government efforts to form Airbus and help it come up to speed had a distortionary effect on transport aircraft manufacturing market - and this, along with some poor product development planning - killed MD. I honestly think Lockheed was always weak and uncommitted to commercial transport and Airbus just helped to convince them to leave the field.
water under the bridge -
But Airbus was well on the way to driving Boeing out of this market before they stumbled on the A340 vs 777 and the A380 investment distracting them on the 787 segment. I think now that they own 60% market share, they will have to stand on their own feet and develop several reactions to Boeing with their own funds, this will be non distortionary competition in my opinion.
...
