Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

[tolipanebas]

You don't know one percent of what I know about this business, this fight is just unfair.

sure dude, you're the man...

Now lean over in your armchair and dream on of one day being allowed inside the HQ of an airline with your CV.... meanwhile study hard and look carefull at how reality unfolds.

If you can't wait till you've gathered enough real world knowledge to understand how an alliance network carrier is run these days, you can always give the MD of VLM a call: your ideas about high frequencies with turboprops perfectly line up with his and then you can remain totally convinced you have it right, failing to grasp the difference between operations of a regional mini-airline and those of a real network carrier.

[eurojet]

Indeed, as to taking C class when it is only EUR 100 more expensive than Y, you just don't want to do that, you get your compliance calling you next day. Hey, somethimes C-class can be cheaper than the most expensive Y, so that could be a green light, but still you'd better be well-documted and prepared.

Eventually, these days, when we trvel, we will fight much more to get decent hotels and are taking the risk to jump corporate policy on hotels than flights. I care much more about a good hotel in a safe area, well connected to where I need to be with a quiet room rather than a glass of cheap champagne and a chocolate on a short haul flights. I would rate on my trips the qulaity of hotels much higher than flights and my colleagues will agree. We'd rather come back saying we managed to sneak in a Hyatt rather than saying we flew back C class from Hamburg.

Interesting as well, fly once with us long-haul in C. Do you really think we get excited by the food, IFE, wines, etc ...? Any long-haul C-class meal and wine is worse than any meal I had in a good brasserie in Lux or Bru. Upon entering a long-haul C-class flight, we basically do one thing: switch off BB and phone and SLEEP (finally, no colleagues, no bosses, no clients, no wife and kids around...)... That is as far as all the "luxury buzz" in C class long-haul is about ...

[tolipanebas]

Indeed, as to taking C class when it is only EUR 100 more expensive than Y, you just don't want to do that, you get your compliance calling you next day. Hey, somethimes C-class can be cheaper than the most expensive Y, so that could be a green light, but still you'd better be well-documted and prepared.

Eventually, these days, when we trvel, we will fight much more to get decent hotels and are taking the risk to jump corporate policy on hotels than flights. I care much more about a good hotel in a safe area, well connected to where I need to be with a quiet room rather than a glass of cheap champagne and a chocolate on a short haul flights. I would rate on my trips the qulaity of hotels much higher than flights and my colleagues will agree. We'd rather come back saying we managed to sneak in a Hyatt rather than saying we flew back C class from Hamburg.

Interesting as well, fly once with us long-haul in C. Do you really think we get excited by the food, IFE, wines, etc ...? Any long-haul C-class meal and wine is worse than any meal I had in a good brasserie in Lux or Bru. Upon entering a long-haul C-class flight, we basically do one thing: switch off BB and phone and SLEEP (finally, no colleagues, no bosses, no clients, no wife and kids around...)... That is as far as all the "luxury buzz" in C class long-haul is about ...

Thank you, Eurojet.

You've replied just as I had expected, because you're fully mainstream in your needs and expectations....

Some people however still think there are scores of business pax out there, willing to pay a extra for in-flight luxury on short haul. WRONG. The 1990s are over, NCB, so better update the fundamentals of your business plan, because as you've just seen one of the 2 pilars of your concept is already gone after the first kick against it, meaning you're now relying only just on being a LCC competitor... at BRU... with a fleet of turboprops... good luck.

[NCB]

Nope, much to your disbelief, we're going to go even larger than the CS100: the A319 is coming to replace the first RJs already next year (see the topic about the Summer 2011 timetable for their use).

What a shocker, right?

You didn't read my previous post did you? Which is probably why you will never understand what I'm trying to tell.
If you read the posts in full, you will realize that all I'm telling makes a lot of sense and that you were ridiculously fighting very good proposals, along with your fans Regi & co.

Until then, live under the illusion that the A319 is going to replace RJ85 in a company that is flying at load factors of 60%. Do you even read what you write yourself? If that makes sense, you must come from another galaxy.

Interesting as well, fly once with us long-haul in C. Do you really think we get excited by the food, IFE, wines, etc ...? Any long-haul C-class meal and wine is worse than any meal I had in a good brasserie in Lux or Bru. Upon entering a long-haul C-class flight, we basically do one thing: switch off BB and phone and SLEEP (finally, no colleagues, no bosses, no clients, no wife and kids around...)... That is as far as all the "luxury buzz" in C class long-haul is about ...

And yet you pay for it, because...? I don't see your point really.

So if I understand you Tolipanebas and Eurojet, according to you SN is right to sell its tickets at 500 euro return in economy, continue to fly empty in business and give you the same service as Ryanair, Correct?

If anyone else finds this ridiculous, please express yourself. I mean, who wouldn't find this ridiculous?

Indeed, as to taking C class when it is only EUR 100 more expensive than Y, you just don't want to do that, you get your compliance calling you next day. Hey, somethimes C-class can be cheaper than the most expensive Y, so that could be a green light, but still you'd better be well-documted and prepared.

Sure of course. A promotion could help your situation, you'll be the one making the compliance calls and flying C class even on short-haul. Until then, I'm sorry but your company will probably only pay for C-class if you're a senior executive.

[RoMax]

Until then, live under the illusion that the A319 is going to replace RJ85 in a company that is flying at load factors of 60%. Do you even read what you write yourself? If that makes sense, you must come from another galaxy.

SN will introduce A319 to these RJ destinations:

- MXP S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 2 daily A319, 3 daily RJ100/85
- CPH S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 3 daily A319, 2 daily RJ100/85
- TXL S10: 7 daily RJ => S11: 5 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- PRG S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- HAM S10: 4 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 3 daily RJ
- GOT S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily B734, 2 daily RJ
- GVA S10: 3 daily A319, 4 daily RJ100 => S11: 6 daily A319, 1 daily RJ100

(for dates at the end of S11 (September/ October) as some routes will get their upgrade later in the season)

It's very clear that SN is replacing RJ100's with A319's and RJ85's with RJ100's. This doesn't mean that all 26 RJ's will be replaced by A32S, but a part of it for sure and that will be already clear in S11.

[tolipanebas]

So NCB, after namecalling and accusing me and others of not knowing what we talk about, you're now going to ridicule those people that are to be you customers, because they don't agree with you either?

Nice move!

You sound just like our archbishop these days: preaching nice theories and telling everybody how wrong they are, stubbornly convinced he's the only one having it right as he's quoting straight from his bible (in your case ofthen the manufacturer's site of Bombardier, section Q400).

[NCB]

So you really think any employer will say 'Oh well, 'just' 200 euro more for excellent wines and champagne a go-go for our hardworking employee on a business trip, yes, sure go ahead!"
Especially with a meeting planned upon arrival, drinking is a good thing to do, right?

A hardworking employee? Business class is usually for executives of companies, never for the average employee or person on a sales trip. It's like that today, has always been like that.

You guys think that I'm talking about the average salesman taking home 30000 euro per year?

I'm talking about pitching a real business class for real business people and wealthy people. I'm talking about executives of Toyota, IBM, Sony, Pioneer, Delhaize, J&J, ING, Telefonica, Coca Cola, GDF Suez and people who can afford to pay for comfort, not the guys on corporate travel scrambling for the 20 000 euro contract of the small company in a lost corner of Wallonia.

[regi]

Whatever Brussels Airlines does, as long it makes profit it is good.
I have repeated this zillion times: the only reason of existance of a company is to make profit.
Not market share, no propaganda, not being friendly , not giving free drinks and snacks, just profit.
If the managers of Brussels Airlines seem to be more clever than some of our members, we have to accept this. Despite we dislike to pay for food and drinks, despite the high price of B-flex. despite the narrow seat sold as business class.
The only reason why we don't see smaller airplanes appear in the SN fleet is because those clever managers know it better. Their spreadsheets show something different than the ideas of some members.
If their studies show that larger airplanes will give them profit, how could they defend to downgrade their product ?

NCB: you did not respond on my remark about extra airport fees if you increase frequency. Did you forget to put that in your calculation ?
NCB: have you ever heard about the special flights that SN makes to trade fairs in Europe? ( Hannover Messe, Achema Frankfurt, Innotrans Berlin,...) Those flights are full. And a full A319 brings more cash than a full Q400.

[NCB]

SN will introduce A319 to these RJ destinations:

- MXP S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 2 daily A319, 3 daily RJ100/85
- CPH S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 3 daily A319, 2 daily RJ100/85
- TXL S10: 7 daily RJ => S11: 5 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- PRG S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- HAM S10: 4 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 3 daily RJ
- GOT S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily B734, 2 daily RJ
- GVA S10: 3 daily A319, 4 daily RJ100 => S11: 6 daily A319, 1 daily RJ100

(for dates at the end of S11 (September/ October) as some routes will get their upgrade later in the season)

It's very clear that SN is replacing RJ100's with A319's and RJ85's with RJ100's. This doesn't mean that all 26 RJ's will be replaced by A32S, but a part of it for sure and that will be already clear in S11.

You're under the illusion that this is permanent too?
Or did you forget that the 737's will be leaving the fleet from 2013?

The above is the result of SN delaying its RJ decisions year after year. SN was supposed to make its RJ replacement decision in 2007 and receive its RJ replacement by now. So now they have to rush their decision and make it this year, so they can retire the 737's and bring in the real RJ replacement.
Club Med also plays a role, but that is expansion and yes, there you are right, but it's limited to 2 A320's.

God help us, where are load factors and yields going to be next year?

[eurojet]

Again, we pay high prices for flexibility, not for a glass of champagne, which I buy for EUR 15 at Auchan here in Luxembourg.

We are a 3,500 person financial group, only our CEO is allowed to fly C in short-haul Europe. Even board members fly Y. Again, flights TATL and +5 hours, everyone flies C, even the girl at the reception. When flying C, we don't work, heck, we don't even want to sit next to a colleague if flying together, since finally we are alone for a moment and we sleep. For movies: see Utopolis.

We all have a personal travel budget, my team has some EUR 200K per annum (5 people). Out of that pocket we need to pay hotels. flights, etc .. We want to travel a lot, so no silly eating up the budget with EUR 2K flights in C to Moscou when a Y costs us EUR 400. Ever flown C with LH to Moscou? You have no middle seat (which we ask to block in Y when booking anyhow since we have status)and they give you a glass of sekt (so not even champagne). Food is marginally better than in Y. Seat pitch is exactly the same. So that glass of sekt cost us EUR 1,600. For one C class I can fly 4X economy or for one C -class I can stay 4 nights in the Moscou Kempinski Baltchug, I know what to will chose !!

[tolipanebas]

You guys think that I'm talking about the average salesman taking home 30000 euro per year?

I'm talking about pitching a real business class for real business people and wealthy people. I'm talking about executives of Toyota, IBM, Sony, Pioneer, Delhaize, J&J, ING, Telefonica, Coca Cola, GDF Suez and people who can afford to pay for comfort, not the guys on corporate travel scrambling for the 20 000 euro contract of the small company in a lost corner of Wallonia.

I see... And obviously there must be tens of thousands of those around at BRU, right?
Great market to go after, with a lot of growth potential!

Sadly, the guys you're targetting aren't flying commercially on short haul, but rather fly fully private as they want to leave right after their meeting and want to have a plane all for themselves.... Oh, and a JET, so they don't loose more time than absolutely needed!

Maybe you should go straight for a Cessna Citiation?

[NCB]

NCB: you did not respond on my remark about extra airport fees if you increase frequency. Did you forget to put that in your calculation ?
NCB: have you ever heard about the special flights that SN makes to trade fairs in Europe? ( Hannover Messe, Achema Frankfurt, Innotrans Berlin,...) Those flights are full. And a full A319 brings more cash than a full Q400.

1. So to reiterate, my plan would suggest
-replacing all the Avro RJ''s by Q400's
-the remaining B737's by A319/A320
-additional A319's/A320 to operate charter routes in the summer or even better, African flights within range.

So I don't know why I should compare a Q400 to an A319?

But if you insist, you can still send 2 Q400's at the same cost as 1 A319 flight, so either way you don't have a point.

2. Why do you have increased airport fees when you have more flights?
Most fees are calculated on MTOW, and Q400 has a low empty weight and needs the least fuel.
The Q400 is a light airplane, so landing fees are cheaper per seat than Avro RJ, CS 100 and even A320.
So it doesn't matter how many frequencies you have, 8 Q400 flights will pay the same fees as 5 Avro RJ100 or CS100 flights and have the same capacity of seats.

Handling and the rest is paid per amount of seats, so it doesn't matter how many flights you have.

Another amateur.

[RoMax]

You're under the illusion that this is permanent too?
Or did you forget that the 737's will be leaving the fleet from 2013?

The above is the result of SN delaying its RJ decisions year after year. SN was supposed to make its RJ replacement decision in 2007 and receive its RJ replacement by now. So now they have to rush their decision and make it this year, so they can retire the 737's and bring in the real RJ replacement.
Club Med also plays a role, but that is expansion and yes, there you are right, but it's limited to 2 A320's.

God help us, where are load factors and yields going to be next year?

Oh come one, the 737's will gradually leave SN, being replaced by A32S wich will come in at the moments the 737's leave. The 4 A319's that will come in S11 have nothing to do with the 737 replacement. A part of the RJ fleet will be (and stay) replaced by A319. Do you still don't see that this is they way it will be, just like it happened and is happening in the whole airline world with the LH group the best exemple. Most of the 50 seaters in the group are leaving or already left. Austrian is using bigger aircraft again and the result is clear, they made a small profit in the last quarter and that was a long time ago.

Do you really think SN is going to replace RJ's by A319's until they get a reall RJ replacement?? They aren't stupid, BAe would be glad to offer SN an extension of the lease contracts. So if SN is waiting for their real RJ replacement they would just extend the lease contracts for a part of the RJ fleet and not replacing it for a short time by A319's.

[cnc]

Handling and the rest is paid per amount of seats, so it doesn't matter how many flights you have.
Another amateur.

this is only partly true, 1 A319 rotation is a lot cheaper then 2 Q400, only check-in, cleaning, loading and catering will be cheaper

[regi]

NCB: you did not respond on my remark about extra airport fees if you increase frequency. Did you forget to put that in your calculation ?
NCB: have you ever heard about the special flights that SN makes to trade fairs in Europe? ( Hannover Messe, Achema Frankfurt, Innotrans Berlin,...) Those flights are full. And a full A319 brings more cash than a full Q400.

1. So to reiterate, my plan would suggest
-replacing all the Avro RJ''s by Q400's
-the remaining B737's by A319/A320
-additional A319's/A320 to operate charter routes in the summer or even better, African flights within range.

So I don't know why I should compare a Q400 to an A319?

But if you insist, you can still send 2 Q400's at the same cost as 1 A319 flight, so either way you don't have a point.

2. Why do you have increased airport fees when you have more flights?
Most fees are calculated on MTOW, and Q400 has a low empty weight and needs the least fuel.
The Q400 is a light airplane, so landing fees are cheaper per seat than Avro RJ, CS 100 and even A320.
So it doesn't matter how many frequencies you have, 8 Q400 flights will pay the same fees as 5 Avro RJ100 or CS100 flights and have the same capacity of seats.

Handling and the rest is paid per amount of seats, so it doesn't matter how many flights you have.

Another amateur.

But than I have an even better and cheaper solution : replace the Avro's with Cessna Caravans. Even lower airport fees, guarranteed full planes , and much cheaper to buy, and cheaper pilots of which you only need 1.

[diminbru]

Until then, live under the illusion that the A319 is going to replace RJ85 in a company that is flying at load factors of 60%. Do you even read what you write yourself? If that makes sense, you must come from another galaxy.

SN will introduce A319 to these RJ destinations:

- MXP S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 2 daily A319, 3 daily RJ100/85
- CPH S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 3 daily A319, 2 daily RJ100/85
- TXL S10: 7 daily RJ => S11: 5 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- PRG S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- HAM S10: 4 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 3 daily RJ
- GOT S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily B734, 2 daily RJ
- GVA S10: 3 daily A319, 4 daily RJ100 => S11: 6 daily A319, 1 daily RJ100

(for dates at the end of S11 (September/ October) as some routes will get their upgrade later in the season)

It's very clear that SN is replacing RJ100's with A319's and RJ85's with RJ100's. This doesn't mean that all 26 RJ's will be replaced by A32S, but a part of it for sure and that will be already clear in S11.

FINALLY some REAL news about fleet replacement. More of this and less crap PLEASE !!! Thanks Mr_Boeing

[regi]

Until then, live under the illusion that the A319 is going to replace RJ85 in a company that is flying at load factors of 60%. Do you even read what you write yourself? If that makes sense, you must come from another galaxy.

SN will introduce A319 to these RJ destinations:

- MXP S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 2 daily A319, 3 daily RJ100/85
- CPH S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 3 daily A319, 2 daily RJ100/85
- TXL S10: 7 daily RJ => S11: 5 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- PRG S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- HAM S10: 4 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 3 daily RJ
- GOT S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily B734, 2 daily RJ
- GVA S10: 3 daily A319, 4 daily RJ100 => S11: 6 daily A319, 1 daily RJ100

(for dates at the end of S11 (September/ October) as some routes will get their upgrade later in the season)

It's very clear that SN is replacing RJ100's with A319's and RJ85's with RJ100's. This doesn't mean that all 26 RJ's will be replaced by A32S, but a part of it for sure and that will be already clear in S11.

FINALLY some REAL news about fleet replacement. More of this and less crap PLEASE !!! Thanks Mr_Boeing

right

[NCB]

Whatever Brussels Airlines does, as long it makes profit it is good.
I have repeated this zillion times: the only reason of existance of a company is to make profit.
Not market share, no propaganda, not being friendly , not giving free drinks and snacks, just profit.
If the managers of Brussels Airlines seem to be more clever than some of our members, we have to accept this. Despite we dislike to pay for food and drinks, despite the high price of B-flex. despite the narrow seat sold as business class.
The only reason why we don't see smaller airplanes appear in the SN fleet is because those clever managers know it better. Their spreadsheets show something different than the ideas of some members.
If their studies show that larger airplanes will give them profit, how could they defend to downgrade their product ?

You are right. SN is there to make money. But it isn't making money.
I am concerned about a strategy of going head to head with Ryanair by expanding capacity. There must be something very wrong about the spreadsheets of those very smart people.

It's simple, if you can't fill 26 aircraft with 85 seat and 92 seats at 65%, you can't fill 26 aircraft with 100 seats at 80% and expect it to yield more revenue. No matter how smart a yield strategy you have, if you weren't able to do it on the Avro RJ, you won't be able to do it on a larger aircraft like the CS100, no matter how much magic powder you use.

[RoMax]

I've forget VIE , so again:

SN will introduce A319 to these RJ destinations:

- MXP S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 2 daily A319, 3 daily RJ100/85
- CPH S10: 5 daily RJ => S11: 3 daily A319, 2 daily RJ100/85
- TXL S10: 7 daily RJ => S11: 5 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- PRG S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 2 daily RJ
- HAM S10: 4 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily A319, 3 daily RJ
- GOT S10: 3 daily RJ => S11: 1 daily B734, 2 daily RJ
- VIE S10: 2 daily B737, 2 daily RJ => S11: 3 daily A319, 1 daily B734
- GVA S10: 3 daily A319, 4 daily RJ100 => S11: 6 daily A319, 1 daily RJ100

(for dates at the end of S11 (September/ October) as some routes will get their upgrade later in the season)

NCB: You say bigger aircraft do not work if you can't fill smaller ones...but why does it work at other airlines. Increasing loadfactor and increasing profitability despite operating bigger aircraft...
I still didn't find any exemple in real world wich shows your idea works. But there are many exemples wich prove that operating bigger aircraft works (off course not on every route and every flight).

[sn26567]

Thanks, Mr_Boeing, for providing actual data showing replacement of RJ fleet.

NCB: You say bigger aircraft do not work if you can't fill smaller ones...but why does it work at other airlines. Increasing loadfactor and increasing profitability despite operating bigger aircraft...
I still didn't find any exemple in real world wich shows your idea works. But there are many exemples wich prove that operating bigger aircraft works (off course not on every route and every flight).

I was also wondering, and it would be really nice if someone could explain in a clear manner how increasing the size of an aeroplane will increase profitability.

Many people on this thread are pretending that it is indeed the case with airlines like Austrian. But nobody is explaining why. More fuel, more cabin crew, higher airport fees, same number of passengers, something must be wrong in the equation...