Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

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RoMax
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by RoMax »

Conti764 wrote: How can you add someone to that foe list?
Click on his name and select "add foe". :)

Btw, Flanker, you do realise that you don't turn around an airline in 2-3 years? You do realise SN has a long way to go? You do realise that most of their decisions in the latest year(s) proved to be quite good choices? As an adition to the previous, you do realise that a good decision doesn't turn into instant profit? You do realise that it looks like it's going worse before things start to improve (due to heavy investments that deepen the loss)? ... ? .... ? ... ?
Well I gues is doesn't make a difference if I say this or not... :roll:

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RoMax
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by RoMax »

Conti764 wrote: If replying and quoting is so exhausting as you claim it to be, do yourself and us a favour, turn your login in and leave this forum. Forever this time. Nobody will miss you, nobody will care...
Where is the "like" button? :!: :?:

flightlover
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by flightlover »

Flanker wrote:
That's why I think that Belgium has the opportunity to pioneer in the low-cost shorthaul segment and become a hub for intra-EU travel. Ryanair don't offer connections now, but if Belgium serves them BRU on a silver plate with some incentives, it's certainly not something that MOL wouldn't think about.
After all, Ryanair could work with a system where connections are only allowed at one single hub, connecting every piece of their network, with every other piece of network. CRL already offers a majority of all Ryanair destinations.

Plus, he could finally realise his dream of longhaul low-cost, if it's more than just attention-gathering.

If I understand you well, you want Belgium to subsidies FR. And condemn the fact that pilots based in Belgium should have to pay taxes in Belgium because it doesn't really mather anyway.

May I point out to you that the Belgian system is only sustainable when there are sufficient taxes raised. And that there are more taxes needed to be raised if there are more 'incentives' given to certain companies that do not contribute (much) to the system.

Yes you get lowered fares flying with FR but know that those low fares are making taxes rise.
And costs to the community are in no comparison to the returns gained.

Flanker
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Flanker »

If I understand you well, you want Belgium to subsidies FR. And condemn the fact that pilots based in Belgium should have to pay taxes in Belgium because it doesn't really mather anyway.
My point was that if the pilots based in Belgium pay taxes in Belgium as a contractor, I don't see how that levels the playing field. Ryanair will just keep paying the same amount, the pilots will pay the taxes.

I don't have a problem when everyone contribute towards taxes, but if it's to contribute to taxes spent in a ridiculous way.... then I don't encourage it.
Now they're going to redo the guard around the king's palace for 1.5 million, because it doesn't shine enough. No kidding :roll:
flightlover wrote:Yes you get lowered fares flying with FR but know that those low fares are making taxes rise.
And costs to the community are in no comparison to the returns gained.
The taxes are rising because of failing fiscal policies and useless investments.
Taxes don't stimulate business in Belgium. Social security in this country is a joke.
Cheap tickets are however a direct stimulus to the population, in the form of tourism, jobs, and most importantly as a purchase power increasing tool.

Inquirer
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Inquirer »

flightlover wrote: If I understand you well, you want Belgium to subsidies FR. And condemn the fact that pilots based in Belgium should have to pay taxes in Belgium because it doesn't really mather anyway.
One of the many inconsistencies indeed, but never mind.
Flanker wrote:It's just that I've been saying that this would happen for years and years and now I'm enjoying my "I told you so" moments.
I am only around since early this year after I found out about the existance of this website through a banner, so I don't know what you've been telling all the people in the past, but it sure seems you have made some ridiculous proposals back then too, judging by the running joke about sending behind a plane full of baggage and catering!

Besides, if your "I've told you so" moment on this is as glorious as that other one you recently thought you could enjoy, than allow me to say you mustn't have predicted much really, other than that Brussels Airlines would face a difficult financial time this year: it's like predicting coffee is hot, you know?

Here's a link to your other 'moment de glore', in case somebody missed it, so they know what I am talking about: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=47141

In it, you first bragged about correctly predicting the arrival of ANA at BRU and presented it as some sort of a visionary miracle proving your superior analytical skills, only to be pointed out by me that ANA themselves gave BRU away as a future destination of theirs in a press release years ago already so there isn't much vision required for any such prediction, after which you then started bragging about having privileged contacts at ANA's HQ in order to snub me, which then begged the logical question why you'd use all of this as poof of your allegedly great analytical skills if your knowledge about ANA's imminent arrival at BRU was indeed simply based on having the right contacts? :roll:

It seems you clearly felt you made such a fool of yourself there in hindsight that you even removed your selfgloss posts a couple of days later! :roll:

All this is rather pathetic, if you ask me! :(

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RoMax
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by RoMax »

Inquirer wrote: I am only around since early this year after I found out about the existance of this website through a banner, so I don't know what you've been telling all the people in the past, but it sure seems you have made some ridiculous proposals back then too, judging by the running joke about sending behind a plane full of baggage and catering!
The big lines of his proposals for SN the latest years (no joking):
- 30-40 Q400's for European routes
- Big amount of A319(LR)'s for high frequency African routes
- Small aircraft flying intra African to get the catering at the different destinations (for the A319's operating to BRU)
- And B757's for US routes? (don't know that for sure anymore)

regi
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by regi »

MR_Boeing wrote:
Inquirer wrote: I am only around since early this year after I found out about the existance of this website through a banner, so I don't know what you've been telling all the people in the past, but it sure seems you have made some ridiculous proposals back then too, judging by the running joke about sending behind a plane full of baggage and catering!
The big lines of his proposals for SN the latest years (no joking):
- 30-40 Q400's for European routes
- Big amount of A319(LR)'s for high frequency African routes
- Small aircraft flying intra African to get the catering at the different destinations (for the A319's operating to BRU)
- And B757's for US routes? (don't know that for sure anymore)
You forget that he picked up the subject to launch a flight Lille-Brussels after I proposed it as a joke. :roll:
But I disagree that he should leave again. He creates so much response on this site that the server had to be replaced :lol:

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cathay belgium
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by cathay belgium »

Hi,

Indeed he brings more life in here.. but how.. :roll:
Flanker wrote:Cheap tickets are however a direct stimulus to the population, in the form of tourism, jobs, and most importantly as a purchase power increasing tool.
:roll: :!:

So eh viva FR !, god bless them for saving our purchase power increasing tool, cheap FR tickets are a direct stimili to ... euh .. people ? which people ? us ?
So FR let us belgians fly outbroad to spend our belgium earned euros in europe !
What a solution..
Oh no, they're bringing europeans to belgium to spend there money here..
like greeks,spanish,italians,irish ... ones...
Hard to say but the big movement by FR people are students,family-unites, eastern home movements ..
Yeah, I also noticed some smaller bussiness people and a single BA Cargopilot somewhere in the que.. but..
Think really it don't bring us more money in than we spend on their subsidies...
Maybe a bit.. but not so that you can call them our economy-savers..

BTW,with those saving-us cheap FR tickets and SN busted, who's and when gonna pay the ATC bills..
Oh yess, the foreign airliners which still uses BRU ! offcourse... in hard competition with FR.
Besides guess BRU airport can drop some of the handling agencies no ? as FR hardly can use them..

Think again, your big brain missed a small point here... minor economic thinking overrules I might say..

Besides can't follow your mind anymore nowadays when you,last year, send me a PM that you work for SN :o :oops:

Guess after reading luchtzak, MoL bought you out of SN no :mrgreen:
Flanker wrote:I'd much rather enjoy an intellectual conversation, than playing in the sandbox. You chose, I can be a 8 year old too. All this quoting and responding is rather exhausting and pointless for the discussion. I'd much rather give you my assessment of the current situation but hey, I'm like Santa, you are a bad boy, I throw coal in your face.
If we're going again this way we can burry Flanker/NCB again and await his ressurection again,
altough he missed his moment,easter already gone..

CX-B
New types flown 2024 : DO228, A338 , PC6

Flanker
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Flanker »

From the Lufthansa Group 2011 annual report

Page 205
Volume of services rendered to Brussels Airlines:
2011 : 49 million
2010 : 41 million


Volume of services received from Brussels Airlines
2011 : 5 million
2010 : 4 million


LH paid 65 million for the 45% stake in SN and have invoiced 150% of that amount in the past 2 years only.
We now know in which direction the money is flowing.

More later...

FlightMate
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by FlightMate »

Who said another Swissair scenario?

At least we haven't got 30 airbusses on order.

I hope the belgian shareholders wake up soon!

Inquirer
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Inquirer »

Well, just a small guess, but aren't these figures simply reflecting the value of tickets sold by either airline on the other one's network, in which case they are pretty normal given LH's network is (at least) 10 times bigger than that of SN?

Unless we know exactly what the figures stand for, it is pretty meaningless to discuss them, don't you think?

Passenger
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Passenger »

Flanker wrote:From the Lufthansa Group 2011 annual report, Page 205:
Volume of services rendered to Brussels Airlines:
2011 : 49 million
2010 : 41 million
Volume of services received from Brussels Airlines
2011 : 5 million
2010 : 4 million

LH paid 65 million for the 45% stake in SN and have invoiced 150% of that amount in the past 2 years only.
We now know in which direction the money is flowing.
This is flanker at his best : fact 1 = "service rendered for 2010 and 2011 is 90 million". Fact 2 = LH paid 65 million for 45% shares". Conclusion fact 1 and fact 2 : "money is flowing into Germany". Reminds me to "ik pas in mijn pyjama en mijn pyjama past in mijn valies. Dus ik pas in mijn valies" (translated in English: don't compare facts that are not comparable).

Would be great if you could clarify to us what these "services rendered / services received" exactly are. Because you must know them, as you can conlude something from it. Is it maintenance? Crew? Fuel? Codesharing? Lounges? Ground equipment? Catering? Flight simulator? Software purchase?

On topic : more relevant for SN's future is page 64 from this annual report:

"... The Passenger Airline Group consists of the companies operating in the Lufthansa airline group, i.e. Lufthansa Passenger Airlines, SWISS, Austrian Airlines and Germanwings, together with its equity investments such as Brussels Airlines and offers its customers important benefits. The increasing harmonisation of products and processes gives passengers considerable added value by enabling seamless travelling within the Group’s route network with 246 destinations. In addition, the multi-hub strategy offers them maximum travel flexibility at the hubs of the airline group, such as Frankfurt, Munich and Zurich. For Lufthansa the strategy represents additional cost synergies as well.

With this strategy each home carrier can play to its strengths in its respective home market. At the same time, the airline group profits from the special know-how of individual members in niche markets with growth potential, such as Brussels Airlines in West Africa..."

Source - caution mobile users, it's a heavy pdf -> 6 Mb:
http://investor-relations.lufthansa.com ... 2011-e.pdf

Flanker
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Flanker »

Passenger wrote:On topic : more relevant for SN's future is page 64 from this annual report:

"... The Passenger Airline Group consists of the companies operating in the Lufthansa airline group, i.e. Lufthansa Passenger Airlines, SWISS, Austrian Airlines and Germanwings, together with its equity investments such as Brussels Airlines and offers its customers important benefits. The increasing harmonisation of products and processes gives passengers considerable added value by enabling seamless travelling within the Group’s route network with 246 destinations. In addition, the multi-hub strategy offers them maximum travel flexibility at the hubs of the airline group, such as Frankfurt, Munich and Zurich. For Lufthansa the strategy represents additional cost synergies as well.

With this strategy each home carrier can play to its strengths in its respective home market. At the same time, the airline group profits from the special know-how of individual members in niche markets with growth potential, such as Brussels Airlines in West Africa..."

Source - caution mobile users, it's a heavy pdf -> 6 Mb:
http://investor-relations.lufthansa.com ... 2011-e.pdf
That is relevant, how?
A potential "quote" that we could read in the annual report of 2012, issued in April 2013:

"Brussels Airlines was no longer capable to maintain the integrity of its route structure due to extensive cost-cutting measures following its financial issues. Its West African network has been redeployed to Frankfurt, together with a team of specialists from the former airline in order to enable a smooth transition.
The network structure and bases in Africa, the largest bottleneck of such an operation, will be maintained."
This is flanker at his best : fact 1 = "service rendered for 2010 and 2011 is 90 million". Fact 2 = LH paid 65 million for 45% shares". Conclusion fact 1 and fact 2 : "money is flowing into Germany". Reminds me to "ik pas in mijn pyjama en mijn pyjama past in mijn valies. Dus ik pas in mijn valies" (translated in English: don't compare facts that are not comparable).
Why not?
If LH's gross margin on those transactions was 25%, they already earned 20M back from the 65M they paid for SN in the 2 year 2010-2011.
What it was for is pretty irrelevant, SN switched to Skychefs and they received some support from LH here and there, that they could have asked to someone else at a cheaper price.
The MRO work at Lufthansa Technik will increase this kind of transactions for this year, my guess sucked out of a thumb is that between 2009-2012 they will have contracted so many services to SN that the 65M will be earned back in gross margins.

LH invested 65M and is getting its money back bit by bit, plus acquiring the African knowledge.
If that is not evident enough, you can put the whole concept of reality into question.
Some people are exagerating.

Inquirer
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Inquirer »

So to summarise, you don't know what the services stand for either???

They represent not even 5% of annual turn around however, so provided they are not totally useless or non-existing services, they can hardly represent a huge cash drain on the part of B.Air should they be indeed of a malicious nature, can they? Even at a gross margin of 25% to Lufthansa (which in itself is huge and unlikely) it represents just 1% of annual turn around. :roll:

Besides, Skychef has been caterer for Brussels Airlines since always, so your remark Lufthansa made them switch is factually not correct: Skychefs in BRU is the old SABENA catering, remember???

One final remark: where's your proof services rendered to B.Airlines by lufthansa are indeed more expensive than they could have got from others, as you explicitly claim?
lufthansa could also happen to have made them the best offer, you know?
One noticeable proof B.air seems to be sourcing from the cheapest supplier is their recent Q400 wet lease; it's not a Lufthansa subsidiary doing it, but flybe and my guess is they were the cheaper bidder....

Unless you can proof your point with unambiguous facts, this one doesn't stand.

Flanker
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Flanker »

Inquirer wrote:They represent not even 5% of annual turn around however, so provided they are not totally useless or non-existing services, they can hardly represent a huge cash drain on the part of B.Air should they be indeed of a malicious nature, can they? At a gross margin of 25% (which in itself is huge and unlikely) as they represent just 1% of annual turn around.
Are you saying that Lufthansa should be bought by SN and not vice-versa?
Why should the pilots pay the price? What about the cabin crew?

Those 27 million you're talking about, is it real printed money?
Because if it is, those 25% will go into the Lufthana Technics account, and be used for logistical purposes. This was a good reason for SN to waste extra money in the chocolates they serve with their cheap-looking print on it, because even the Avro's burn too much fuel to make Davignon happy enoguh to buy Virgin from Branson.
The 5% that you talk about is thus rubbish, we all know that Davignon didn't steal it and put it into his pocket!
I can't believe you said that! Or do you know something that we don't know? 5% isn't much but in an industry where most airlines never acieve 7% net margin, 5% is important.


Why do you think that LH should open an African hub in HAM? I don't understand that!

Flanker
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Flanker »

Inquirer wrote:One final remark: where's your proof services rendered to B.Airlines by lufthansa are indeed more expensive than they could have got from others, as you explicitly claim?
lufthansa could also happen to have made them the best offer, you know?
One noticeable proof B.air seems to be sourcing from the cheapest supplier is their recent Q400 wet lease; it's not a Lufthansa subsidiary doing it, but flybe and my guess is they were the cheaper bidder....

Unless you can proof your point with unambiguous facts, this one doesn't stand.
Are you saying that Flybe got a better deal than Lufthansa from Bombardier? If so, why doesn't OS operate to Stuttgart anymore? It was a destination that carried a lot of pax, so in the feeding they needed something with a propeller to keep it efficient.
The wet lease has nothing to do with LH. SN chose to work with Flybe, SN has its on management you know?
Not all decisions are taken by LH and who knows, maybe LH don't have spare Q400s because they want to send some of their A346's to ZRH, meaning that they need to feed ZRH with the Q400's.

Why do you think that the wetlease is a bad deal? Do you have proof that it's bad deal and how do you know this? You're supposed to be a regular corporate passenger?

Inquirer
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Inquirer »

Flanker wrote:those 25% will go into the Lufthana Technics account, and be used for logistical purposes. This was a good reason for SN to waste extra money in the chocolates they serve with their cheap-looking print on it, because even the Avro's burn too much fuel to make Davignon happy enoguh to buy Virgin from Branson.
The 5% that you talk about is thus rubbish, we all know that Davignon didn't steal it and put it into his pocket!
I can't believe you said that! Or do you know something that we don't know? 5% isn't much but in an industry where most airlines never acieve 7% net margin, 5% is important.


I am sorry, but I am not following you... try to sort your thoughts first, please.
Flanker wrote:Why do you think that LH should open an African hub in HAM?
(...)Are you saying that Flybe got a better deal than Lufthansa from Bombardier?
(...)why doesn't OS operate to Stuttgart anymore?
(..) Why do you think that the wetlease is a bad deal?
(..)Do you have proof that it's bad deal and how do you know this?
Now that's a lot of unrelated questions which have nothing to do with your initial accusation of Lufthansa somehow trying to milk Brussels Airlines, if I may say so. You're not suddenly trying to quickly push this discussion in a completely different direction by creating confusion, do you? ;)

I think you brought up a very interesting issue there, definitely worth of discussing, even though it doesn't seem to hold any grounds when we start looking at it more closely. However, that shouldn't be reason to suddenly drop it, does it? This discussion can be just as interesting, even if it proofs you completely wrong, you know?

So, let's come back to your accusation of mallicious practices by Lufthansa by looking at the figures you've quoted.

As we've clearly determined beyond any doubt: you don't know what type of services are ment and neither do I, so we can only guess. It's a safe bet however to say catering will definitely make up a large part of it. In this respect, it is interesting to note how B.air has been using the same caterer ever since it was launched. Now, sadly I don't know how much the catering contract is worth (maybe you can provide us factual data, flanker?), but let's just say it represents several tens of millions, millions which were already flowing in the direction of Lufthansa well before the take-over...

The remainder of the services rendered are probably linked to maintenance and ticketting and may very well have increased substantially in value after B.Air became partly owned by Lufthansa, yet as you say yourself, a 5% margin is already a big thing in this industry, so a 5% margin on roughly 30M of additional rendered services, is 6M. Such is the potential 'profit' Lufthansa may have made on services it got contracted from Brussels Airlines.

Provided those services are indeed rendered (and thus not completely fictitious) and had to be sourced from somewhere anway, the worst case scenario is one where Lufthansa overcharged Brussels Airlines.
it's hard to put a figure on the potential overcharge, but let's say they overcharged by 20%: that thus makes a full million of additional profit then, or if you want a full milion 'stolen' from B.Air.
At this pace, the Germans need another 60 years to recover their initial investment in the Belgian carrier!

And mind you, just as I pointed out, there's no proof of Brussels Airlines deliberatey being forced to source from a Lufthansa affiliates at all cost, nor have I seen any proof of an affiliate selected being far more expensive than any other bidder: I've been able to show you a clear example of a case where Brussels Airlines sourced from a third party (i.e. flybe) even, so even that one million in potentially malliciously earned money is highly doubtful indeed.

So, once again, and unless you can provide us with compelling proof to the contrary, you've failed to make your case, I am afraid, but thank you for digging up those figures from the annual report: at least we now know there's no second Swissair scenario playing in the background as the potential cash drain -even in the absolute worst case scenario- is so ridiculously small, it just doesn't make any sense.

Flanker
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Flanker »

So, once again, and unless you can provide us with compelling proof to the contrary, you've failed to make your case, I am afraid, but thank you for digging up those figures from the annual report: at least we now know there's no second Swissair scenario playing in the background as the potential cash drain -even in the absolute worst case scenario- is so ridiculously small, it just doesn't make any sense.
You are failing to make your case. You seem to be jumping to conclusions with your reference to Swissair. That situation is not comparable in any way.
And mind you, just as I pointed out, there's no proof of Brussels Airlines deliberatey being forced to source from a Lufthansa affiliates at all cost, nor have I seen any proof of an affiliate selected being far more expensive than any other bidder: I've been able to show you a clear example of a case where Brussels Airlines sourced from a third party (i.e. flybe) even, so even that one million in potentially malliciously earned money is highly doubtful indeed.
Your information is false as are your accusations. hy should Brussels Airlines force LH to sell its other affiliates to save SN? That's utterly ridiculous.
Inquirer wrote:As we've clearly determined beyond any doubt: you don't know what type of services are ment and neither do I, so we can only guess. It's a safe bet however to say catering will definitely make up a large part of it. In this respect, it is interesting to note how B.air has been using the same caterer ever since it was launched. Now, sadly I don't know how much the catering contract is worth (maybe you can provide us factual data, flanker?), but let's just say it represents several tens of millions, millions which were already flowing in the direction of Lufthansa well before the take-over...

The remainder of the services rendered are probably linked to maintenance and ticketting and may very well have increased substantially in value after B.Air became partly owned by Lufthansa, yet as you say yourself, a 5% margin is already a big thing in this industry, so a 5% margin on roughly 30M of additional rendered services, is 6M. Such is the potential 'profit' Lufthansa may have made on services it got contracted from Brussels Airlines.
I don't know them but you seem to know them very well. If you knew that so well, why would you ask me?
Consolidated results are not comparable to other margins are they? Does LH Technik work with 5% margins?
You seem to know much more than I do, chapeau. I wish I knew as much a you do.
You also have exceptional arithmetic skills. I, and perhaps even Einstein didn't know that there was a hidden formula inside the percentile conversion.
Inquirer wrote:I am sorry, but I am not following you... try to sort your thoughts first, please.
That's how I interpret your text, your way. It works fine, the form looks perfect, but I'm working on the content.
Inquirer wrote:I think you brought up a very interesting issue there, definitely worth of discussing, even though it doesn't seem to hold any grounds when we start looking at it more closely. However, that shouldn't be reason to suddenly drop it, does it? This discussion can be just as interesting, even if it proofs you completely wrong, you know?

So, let's come back to your accusation of mallicious practices by Lufthansa by looking at the figures you've quoted.
It holds ground if you consider SNAir holdings and Richard Branson's perpsective.
Why should LH take all the burden of the depreciation when routes like ATH are flying empty and the RJ85's are swimming in the skies at 105$ a barrel and the euro in the toilet. It's all about temporary gain vs long term prospects, and SN just isn't ready yet to start becoming a major airline. IF LH realised that, they would have swapped many routes from FRA to MUC, to please its subsidiaries, becaue that' where the money is.

Your theory is interesting but it doesn't hold.

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Vinnie-Winnie
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Vinnie-Winnie »

I'm not participating to this debate as it is rather childish and ridiculous, but please, can we change the title into perspectives and not prospective which is a word that is hardly ever used? This is a rather interesting forum nevertheless if you want a bit of outreach let's try to use proper english. Some people here pick on other people's english because it is not so good but have the same people looked at their English? it's rather pathetic really.

Back on topic I think SN is a pretty cautious airline. As such it weighs heavily its options and probably doesn't take any decisions lightly. There is a lot at stake here, and a lot of uncertainty in this world...

Tomskii
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial prospective?

Post by Tomskii »

FlightMate wrote:It must be!

As they already have to reshuffle their plans.
No more Airbus319/320. Q400 to replace the Avro
100 pilots too many.
Salary cuts.

And with the European crisis only starting... I fear the worst will come.

Will the German save Europe (and Brussels Airlines)?
No more A319 for avro's is bullshit.. The Q400 has been leased instead of Avro's for routes that aren't populated enough to actually get an A319 on that route.

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