LH retiring aircraft... opportunities for SN?

[LJ]

My "12 points" would go to Sao Paulo. Brazil is a strong emerging economy and probably that the InBev people in Leuven would love to have a direct flight to Sao Paulo.

Highly doubtful. Not only is there a lack of slots at GRU (no more slots at peak times), but the market is already well covered by other in the LH Group (LH and LX) and Star airlines TAM and off course TP (though TAM will probably leave once the merger with LAN is taking effect).

Next, I would consider China. Perhaps not the cities which come to mind first like PEK or HKG, but what about important secondary cities where there is still no or little competition ?

If you can't make a destination like PVG work ex BRU (Hainan about to cancel this destination), any second tier destination is even more difficult. Only when there is enough O&D (AF with Wuhan and KLM with Xiamen) one can make these destinations work (Chengdu is somewhat an odd one, but KLM had a lot of problems making this destination work).

a few destinations in China (the cargo alone would probably make the flights profitable)

Cargo can't pay for the flight, moreover as the Europe - China market is getting saturated (cargo traffic is down this year).

Brussels Airlines was established by Belgian companies. If these share holders would like to have a direct flight to China, they will all prefer Bejing as first destination there.

Which is already served by Hainan...

While we're at it, we might debate the case of TPE, a somehow neglected city/airport.
Funny thing is that none of the LH Group airlines seem to operate to Taipei

This usually means it's not a very high yielding and/or profitable destination. The only viable destinations in Europe ex TPE seem to be AMS and LHR.. Maybe an option if Eva joins Star, but even then FRA and VIE (to which they already fly) would be first.

Apparantly CAN (Guangzhou Airport) is Chinese second busiest airport (pax wise) and third busiest cargo airport. AF, LH, ET, KQ and TK already serve this city.

And you forget the largest operator of CAN, China Southern. They'll send the A380 to Paris (if everything goes according to plan) in a few months time and operate nonstop CAN-AMS. Highly doubtful that there is enough room for SN at CAN (LH doesn't even fly daily to CAN). However why would one fly via BRU when you have a daily flight via ADD?

Sorry, but I doubt that SN should consider China or Asia at all. BRU is a small market and SN's Star partners can do it better and cheaper. Thus better to devote your scarce resources to something you're good at.

With A343 JNB comes in mind again,

Then hopefully with better yield than last time....

BTW strange that nobody mentions India. not that I think this is a good idea though.

[tolipanebas]

If SN wants to do really extravagant, let them start up a route to a French overseas leisure island in the Indian ocean via NBO and sell half the capacity of that flight to their partner Club Med, while they try to sell the rest themselves...

[cathay belgium]

Brussels - Papeete ?
Guess not so many rich people nowadays to fill these planes haha

CX-B

BTW Antanarivo is very tiny competition, lot of traffic also for connection to US, only AF in competition.
And with ridicoulous fares !!

Wasn't Air Madagascar once present @ BRU ?

[DeltaWiskey]

It is not because there is little or no competition to a certain destination, it is going to make money (for SN), there has to be demand as well...

Brussels-Papeete is not going to work, Papeete is not a rich people's resort nor it has a rich population. It is mainly a low yield tourism destination (basically all french overseas territories), and from BRU certainly low demand as well...

BRU-JNB far too much competition from Europe, O/D from BRU certainly not high enough to make it work all week long...

I'm all for expansion in Sub-Sahara Africa, everywhere except South Africa, there is too much competition for which SN just can't fight.

Outside Africa, it is more safe to expand to existing Star Alliance hubs first. That is still a lot of possible destinations for the A340...

Does LH have any A340E?

[OO-ITR]

However why would one fly via BRU when you have a daily flight via ADD?

[/quote]

Well there is a common economic term called competition.
Why would SN start NY service if there is already AA, DL, CO and 9W on this route? It is because they want to compete and try to force another competitor out of the BRU market.
It's obvious that ET is a major competitor for SN on the African market (even if they codeshare and will be in the same alliance soon).

[RoMax]

Does LH have any A340E?

Only 'normal' and A340X. But the A340's that will be retired soon are normal A343's wich are already quite old, but when you look at the age of the A333's that shouldn't be the biggest issue for SN.

[cnc]

Does LH have any A340E?

Only 'normal' and A340X. But the A340's that will be retired soon are normal A343's wich are already quite old, but when you look at the age of the A333's that shouldn't be the biggest issue for SN.

yep last A343 was delivered in 2001 while the E version is from 2005 i think

[RoMax]

yep last A343 was delivered in 2001 while the E version is from 2005 i think

Yes 2004 or 2005 I think. There are not so much E versions delivered as far as I know and certainly none to LH.

[DeltaWiskey]

Only 'normal' and A340X. But the A340's that will be retired soon are normal A343's wich are already quite old

ok thanks!

[Gate-A1]

Brussels - Papeete ?
Guess not so many rich people nowadays to fill these planes haha

Hmm... last time I checked Papette was in the Pacific.

St Denis de la Réunion was maybe the suggested destination but can this work with so many flights from Paris already ? Thalys make CDG the second airport from Brussels.

[cathay belgium]

@Gate - A1 : indeed was too quick, and it's a rich man desti tolepanebas
( Nor I nor my friends could afford it haha )

Indeed Reunion en Mauritius it was.. and Air Austral with A380 in 1000pax+ config no ?

Guess we can search on for nice desti's..

But is there even a chance LH would send some A34X-A33X to SN ? or is it very wishful thinking of us..

CX-B

[LJ]

But is there even a chance LH would send some A34X-A33X to SN ? or is it very wishful thinking of us..

CX-B

Probably a very small chance as LH will use the A340 ex DUS during Summer 2012 (for NRT, EWR and ORD) instead of the A333.

[RoMax]

Probably a very small chance as LH will use the A340 ex DUS during Summer 2012 (for NRT, EWR and ORD) instead of the A333.

This doesn't mean anything, as they can re-shuffle the aircraft around their hubs (they did this before). LH confirmed on 27 October that they will retire 38 aircraft by the end of 2011 of wich the most will be RJ85, 733 and 735. But also 9 long haul aircraft, including the 744 and A343.

That is the official part, the rumours say it will be 2-4 of the oldest A343's that will be phased out, and that this may be in early 2012 and not "by the end of 2011".

These aircaft will be replaced by A380's, B748i's and 3 A333's they have still on order. But despite that the planned capacity increase for 2012 is down to 3% from the first planned 9%.

BUT of course this really doesn't mean they will come to SN. It is possible, but FAR from sure, especially now already because they already get 2 extra A332's in 2011/2012. But maybe some A343's late 2012 or in 2013? SN needs rather cheap long haul aircraft, so the old A343's comming from LH could be a solution. For new aircraft it will be waiting until LH orders A350's and possibly 787's for the whole group, and we'll not see these before let's say 2018.

[134flyer]

For anybody thinking CAN might be an opportunity for SN: LH will cancel their flights to CAN from next summer (source: airlineroute.net). And no, I don't think there is even the slightest chance SN will take over those flights... CAN really is a Skyteam fortress.

[tolipanebas]

Indeed, LH will close CAN as from March 26, citing low yield.
LH had good loads on the flight, yet it struggled to sufficiently fill even the smallest of their business class cabins. I very much doubt SN could make CAN work, despite their links to AFI...

[RoMax]

Often business people combine HKG and CAN because they are so close to eachother. And often they fly to HKG and when they need to be in CAN they buy a seperate ticket of travel overland. Except for frequent Skyteam flyers who have more and better choice. But except for Skyteam it's easier to get to HKG and get to CAN out of HKG.
And for Africa-CAN you already have some important airlines like ET and EK flying over there with good connections from different places in Africa.

[Passenger]

Next, I would consider China. Perhaps not the cities which come to mind first like PEK or HKG, but what about important secondary cities where there is still no or little competition ? FWIW, I have heard (and don't know it it is true) that the Chinese, inter alia for transport convenience and also security reasons, prefer to export what they buy in eastern Congo via Kigali rather than via Kinshasa. Hence, the success of KL's flights to/from Kigali thanks to the connections with the numerous cities served in China by KL.

I agree. Maybe Guangzhou can be considered. It has a large Congolese community and a lot of trade is done between Congo and Guangzhou with lots of Congolese travelling to Guangzhou to buy products to bring them to Congo and sell them there.
It's also very close to Hong Kong (triangular?).
Apparantly CAN (Guangzhou Airport) is Chinese second busiest airport (pax wise) and third busiest cargo airport.
AF, LH, ET, KQ and TK already serve this city.

It's also a base for future Star Alliance member Shenzhen Airlines.

The mighty Lufthansa now flies three times a week to Guangzhou. Untill 22 March 2012: LH wil then cancel the route. "Too much competition", they say.

(source: luchtvaartnieuws.nl)

[Air Key West]

Off topic, but as a continuation of the discussion on this thread : from S12 Lufthansa will fly to two important secondary cities in China : Shenyang and Qindao.

More info :
viewtopic.php?p=257111#p257111
http://presse.lufthansa.com/en/news-rel ... /2034.html