Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

[nordikcam]

I have written more pro SN posts on this forum in a week ...(...)

True too !

[Flanker2]

I don't think that SN is to blame for the long traffic jams to the airport. In fact, if anything the finger should be pointed at BRU. BRU can point fingers to the government but at the end of the day, it's their facilities (or lack thereof) that are causing problems, so they should negotiate to have all bottlenecks smoothened.

For over 20 years pax have been paying 30 Euro's each time they passed through those security gates, so BRU should provide value for that amount of money. You can literally move mountains with that amount of money.

Regarding the matter of 5 mio a day, when a CEO says that his company is losing 5 million a day, it's the CEO doing his job. SN is not a publicly traded company, so he doesn't have to release exact numbers.
In reality, I think that the attack's negative effect so far on the 2016 results will be in the 35-45 million Euro's area.
I forecasted a profit of 100 millions for this year, so they are still within the profit-making area.
How traffic will recover is a much more important factor for the rest of the year. The lower load factors in April/May and the reduced operations are likely to eat another 30 millions into SN's profits as we stand today.
However, if effects remain palpable beyond June, SN can land back into losses. For every percentage point of lost traffic or yield, count about 5 millions of negative effect, so only god knows where the results will land.

So I think that SN is still in the profit-making area for 2016 and all depends on how fast the traffic comes back.

Regarding liquidity, I have already commented that SN could run into a temporary cash flow problem given the absence of advance bookings and effects of cancellations. However, I don't think that any financial institution would refuse a short-term cash provision to SN under these circumstances. The political pressure would be too huge to do so. Worst case there are sill the shareholders.

It's unfortunate that SN has its first super year taken away from it by the terrorists and mismanagement of the crisis by BRU and friends. Similarily, SN is being affected by the European sanctions in the NH codeshare saga.
In the end, SN is a vehicle set up and run by politicians, the same ones who supported revolutions in Ukraine, Syria and North Africa. So let them worry about "what goes around comes around..."

At the end of the day, SN can survive this, but SN won't survive another attack inside BRU airport.
So I think that the multiple checks are necessary until the attacks become a distant memory.

PS: Like said in the VLM 2016 thread, I think that SN should look into acquiring VLM as it's valued at next to nothing. It would be the perfect vehicle for SN to run regional expansions and wetlease replacements.

[sn26567]

Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa, was invited to the Royal Palace for a private meeting with King Philip this afternoon.

Something brewing?

[jan_olieslagers]

the Royal Palace

Which one? Buckingham? or Versailles

[Poiu]

Carsten Sphor has been invited to the royal palace.
An indication SN is in critical condition?
Probably Mr D asked his friends in Laken for their support in an attempt to save SN.

[mad_fab]

the Royal Palace

Which one? Buckingham? or Versailles

There's a "King Philip" in the UK/FR?

[RoMax]

Carsten Sphor has been invited to the royal palace.
An indication SN is in critical condition?
Probably Mr D asked his friends in Laken for their support in an attempt to save SN.

You think Spohr will let the Belgian royals convince him about saving SN?

It's much more symbolic than anything else and was definitely not the main reason of his visit to Brussels. He also went to BAC, SN, the LH staff at BRU/Swissport,...

[Poiu]

You think Spohr will let the Belgian royals convince him about saving SN?

It's much more symbolic than anything else and was definitely not the main reason of his visit to Brussels. He also went to BAC, SN, the LH staff at BRU/Swissport,...

Reading is an art!
I said: trying to use his influence.
Do you think everybody who visits BAC, SN,... is invited to the palace? The reason of the visit is that somebody pushed the panic button.

[RoMax]

Reading is an art!
I said: trying to use his influence.
Do you think everybody who visits BAC, SN,... is invited to the palace? The reason of the visit is that somebody pushed the panic button.

Do you really believe someone is so extremely naive to think that 'trying to use his influence' through the Royal Palace is going to help even just one bit. We are talking about LH here, not some kind of state owned carrier of a country that has very good ties with the Belgian royals.

Brussels was attacked by terrorists, the main carrier in BRU is largely LH owned (which itself is a major airline at BRU) and they were supposed to take over SN completely this quarter. It's quite normal he visits Brussels. That he is invited to the Royal Palace is nothing more than a symbol of showing how important LH/SN is for Belgium. Do you really think they discussed some kind of deal to save SN or something? Spohr wouldn't even have went to the Royal Palace if that would be the reason for the invite. And no when Davignon needs something from a company like LH, he will not try to use his influence to involve the Belgian royals, he might be old, he is not stupid

[Poiu]

Reading is an art!
I said: trying to use his influence. .

That he is invited to the Royal Palace is nothing more than a symbol of showing how important LH/SN is for Belgium.

I think we agree.

[Passenger]

Also present during Spohr's visit to the Belgian king: doctor Benoît HERMANS and doctor Jos Olbrechts, Kliniek Sint-Jan / Hopital St Jean, Brussels.

This hospital was one of the many hospitals that treated victims of the 22/03 attacks. Perhaps Spohr wanted to thank Belgium for the way injured staff from the Lufthansa Group and LH Group passengers were cared for after the attacks?

[sean1982]

Romax, why do business men take members of the Royal family on economic missions? Also being naive? Stupidity?

[RoMax]

Romax, why do business men take members of the Royal family on economic missions? Also being naive? Stupidity?

Because in some countries that does help to be a bit more convincing. Do you really think that's going to work with one of the biggest German companies Besides, they really don't really talk business, they do not much more than saying look how nice Belgium is. They are never talking in detail about business and especially not of private companies. And if SN would really be in such a bad shape (which it isn't), the government might talk to LH. But the king? Hahahaaha

Again it's nothing more than symbolic. After the Germanwings crash, Spohr knows very well what a disaster is and the visits he did today was a lot of showing that they didn't forget about Brussels overthere in Frankfurt. That's why he also visited the local staff.

Of course they had some serious talks between them at SN and probably BAC. But does anyone even dare to think they negotiated a rescue deal for SN at the Royal Palace?

Sorry for the overkill of smileys, but it's been a long time since I had such a good laugh at this forum

[sean1982]

I hope you can keep laughing in the future Waterside looked very bright today

[RoMax]

I hope you can keep laughing in the future Waterside looked very bright today

This has nothing to do with the situation SN and BRU etc are in, just the idea that some think the Royal Palace invited Spohr to influence him to 'save' SN...

[RoMax]

Reading is an art!
I said: trying to use his influence. .

That he is invited to the Royal Palace is nothing more than a symbol of showing how important LH/SN is for Belgium.

I think we agree.

No we don't.
And next time you quote me, don't put smileys after a sentence where I never placed nor intended it.

[Poiu]

Romax- the smiley was yours, but you are correct there is nothing to smile about in this topic!
I don't think a deal was done at the palace, but you can be absolutely sure that some lobbying took place. That is the only thing I was hinting at. Read the memories of a couple of important businessmen/lobbyists and you will be amazed how much negotiation takes place during "informal" meetings.

[flymd11]

Read the memories of a couple of important businessmen/lobbyists and you will be amazed how much negotiation takes place during "informal" meetings.

Exactly! And even when you are on a courtesy visit, you are still setting the seeds for something...

[Poiu]

Do you really think that's going to work with one of the biggest German companies Besides, they really don't really talk business, they do not much more than saying look how nice Belgium is. They are never talking in detail about business and especially not of private companies. And if SN would really be in such a bad shape (which it isn't), the government might talk to LH. But the king? Hahahaaha

Again it's nothing more than symbolic. After the Germanwings crash, Spohr knows very well what a disaster is and the visits he did today was a lot of showing that they didn't forget about Brussels overthere in Frankfurt. That's why he also visited the local staff.

Of course they had some serious talks between them at SN and probably BAC. But does anyone even dare to think they negotiated a rescue deal for SN at the Royal Palace?

Sorry for the overkill of smileys, but it's been a long time since I had such a good laugh at this forum

Did you read the financial press today RoMax?
You still think I am a fool?
Apologies accepted, but please be more careful with your smileys in the future.

[Conti764]

Oh come on... Do you really think the CEO of a multinational company, Germany's and Europes largest airline group decides on business issues based on what some king of some country asks him? Royal intervention might help in some countries where they still hold much respect and regard for such institution(s) but I seriously doubt such works in Germany... If LH is going to take over SN, it is because Spohr and even more so the board sees a gain in taking over SN...