SN Brussels Airlines' Loadfactor - part 2

[airbuske]

Thank you airbuske for the quick answer.

Is there an explanation for the big increase in April.

ATC

I think the Easter holiday.

I read that their "early deals" were a big succes.

[ATC]

ATC wrote:
Thank you airbuske for the quick answer.

Is there an explanation for the big increase in April.

ATC


I think the Easter holiday.

I read that their "early deals" were a big success.

Yes, but if their "Early Deals" were a big success, it didn't generate a big increase in passenger traffic (LF). So, it's like I thought, they sold a lot of "early deals" to their regular passengers and didn't attract many new one. So this deal isn't a big success concerning the revenue site ?

Or I'm a missing something here ?

ATC

[Atlantis]

If you look at those figures, they are not that good. Approx a LF of 60%, if I was a manager of that company I was concerned.

About the early bookings, they have sold 100.000 of them.

[ATC]

About the early bookings, they have sold 100.000 of them.

I wouldn't call this a big success...
I would call this a small success...

ATC

[airbuske]

I'm curious how the LF will be during the summer months

[sn26567]

As you can see a big increase in April

That's because the Easter vacation came later this year.

[Atlantis]

When you compare with the average European LF, around 70%, this is not good at all.

But that's no wonder. Look at our neighbour countries: The Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Great Britain, etc ,etc, they have all a lot of flights a day to BRU. SNBA have a few to them or none. That's the problem. Other airlines have all the pax, SNBA has the locals.

And that's also the problem BIAC has. There is no big homeplayer at BRU. F.e. when Lufthansa or Iberia disappear from BRU it would be a disaster because they have a lot of flights, that means a lot of money for BIAC, they bring a lot of pax, they spend some money in the airport.

For the near future I don't see progress on that. When both airlines, SNBA and Virgin, are going to merge they are going to reduce the number of destinations to 40. The expansion of the fleet is not for tomorrow.

Having every year a profit is nice, but take some risk is nicer. I'm a strong believer of having a mixed fleet of very small aircrafts, mid and long haul.

[ATC]

Having every year a profit is nice, but take some risk is nicer. I'm a strong believer of having a mixed fleet of very small aircraft's, mid and long haul.

I'm also convinced this could solve a few problems.

A mixed fleet will increase the LF.
The smallest aircraft SNBA is now flying is the RJ 85 which has a capacity of 82 seats. For the moment this aircraft is way to big for a lot of "small" destinations. An aircraft with a 50 seat capacity would fit much better in the SN network. Some destinations require a bigger aircraft, maybe an A320. Especially with the merger between SN and Virgin going on.

And also for their "possible international expansion" a mix of long haul aircraft could solve some LF problems. For example a mix of 757 and 767-300 would work out perfectly to start the US expansion.

A lot of "if" and "maybe". But like said before the big bosses of SN will already have prepared a great plan for their "expansion".

ATC

[Atlantis]

I believe that our conversations here deserve a separte topic, but that's the decision of the moderators.

About the plans of the big bosses. I have to say that I have lately a very strange feeling about SNBA.

Honestly, we have to admit that the first meeting with all the employees and travelagents was very poor. That was the meeting were they announced to open some US destinations, extra aircrafts, etc. That was all. These are future plans.

There are rumours that the Cameroun-deal is a no go.

Its a lot of air, but no real actions. Its like we are speaking about a virtual airline.

[DannyVDB]

Hi,

Don't think you have to look at too negatively. Pax increased over the first 6 months with 6,5% and LF with 3,5%. They used a little bit more capacity (3% up). It seems that they expect to make profit again which can't be said for a lot of airlines even if they have a higher LF (and can't progress anymore unless they invest in new aircraft). So the combination is not that bad.

Indeed they speak about 40 key destinations. But it is not yet sure what will happen with the codeshare destinations or with the specific summer destinations, etc. So they might end up with 55 or so destinations after all.

So wait and see ...

Danny

[Atlantis]

I agree with you that making profit in the airline world is nice these days. But SNBA would take the chance to discovery the world behind the Avro's, A319 and A330.

Why not take some ATR, Embraer, or other smaller aircrafts and start the battle against LH, KLM and BA on these routes.

The way is already made by BIAC, it would be a shame not to take that offer.

[ATC]

Don't think you have to look at too negatively. Pax increased over the first 6 months with 6,5% and LF with 3,5%. They used a little bit more capacity (3% up). It seems that they expect to make profit again which can't be said for a lot of airlines even if they have a higher LF (and can't progress anymore unless they invest in new aircraft). So the combination is not that bad.

I'm not a negative man... but a realistic man.
Pax and LF have indeed increased. Considering the publicity the made with "early deals" it would be very surprising if PAX went down ?
So I think the up going trend is a direct consequence of these "deals".
Nothing more, nothing less.

About their profit.
2 remarks...

1) the only thing that makes profit is the African network, the European network is after several years and all the code share agreements still very loss making.
2) every year SN does something (or sells something) to raise some extra millions... They can do these operations only once and most of the time these "sell operations" costs more on the long run...
fftopic:
It's a little bit like the Belgian government, a true specialist in this kind of "one time" magic tricks.

conclusion:
There is a profit, that's positive.
But, if you look a little bit closer this profit is very fragile and isn't really convincing...

Indeed they speak about 40 key destinations. But it is not yet sure what will happen with the code share destinations or with the specific summer destinations, etc. So they might end up with 55 or so destinations after all.

This is a perfect example...
SN strategy changes like the "weather". In a few months the merger is a reality and we still don't know anything. The only fact is... there is no or almost no communication about the merger. Every day there is an other rumour and no facts. I think there is no communication because SNBA still haven't formed a real business plan for the new airline.

Like always the future will bring us the answers...

ATC

[airbuske]

Figures for June available


SN Brussels Airlines:

01/2002.35.2..01/2003..49.2 +14.1%....01/2004..52.9 +3.6%....01/2005..59.3 +6.4%...01/2006..60.8 +1,5%
02..........41.5....02...........50.1 +8.6%......02/2004..55.8 +5.8%....02/2005..60.4 +4.6%....02/2006..61.6 +1,1%
03..........44.7....03...........51.2 +6.5%......03/2004..56.9 +5.7%....03/2005..59.7 +2.8%....03/2006..60.4 +0,7%
04..........42.7....04...........54.2 +11.5%....04/2004..56.8 +2.6%....04/2005..59.4 +2.6%....04/2006..69.0 +9,6%
05..........39.3....05...........52.7 +13.5%....05/2004..56,8 +4,1%....05/2005..60.6 +3.8%....05/2006..61.6 +1,3%
06..........47.8....06...........57.0 +9.2%......06/2004..61,0 +4,0%....06/2005..62.1 +1,1%....06/2006..66,2 + 4,1%
07..........56.1....07...........67.0 +10.9%....07/2004..71,3 +4,3%....07/2005..71,3 +0,0%
08..........56.0....08...........69.3 +13.3%....08/2004..71,3 +2,0%....08/2005..71,3 +0,1%
09..........53.9....09...........61.1 +7.2%......09/2004..65,6 +4,5%....09/2005..66,6 +1,0%
10..........49.5....10...........56.6 +7.1%......10/2004..60,6 +4.0%....10/2005..61,2 +0,6%
11..........45.1....11...........56.6 +11.7%....11/2004..56,8 +0,3%....11/2005..59,3 +2,5%
12..........51.7....12...........59.1 +7.4%......12/2004..61.8 +2.8%....12/2005..63,8 +1,9%

[airbuske]

Figures for July available



SN Brussels Airlines:

01/2002.35.2..01/2003..49.2 +14.1%....01/2004..52.9 +3.6%....01/2005..59.3 +6.4%...01/2006..60.8 +1,5%
02..........41.5....02...........50.1 +8.6%......02/2004..55.8 +5.8%....02/2005..60.4 +4.6%....02/2006..61.6 +1,1%
03..........44.7....03...........51.2 +6.5%......03/2004..56.9 +5.7%....03/2005..59.7 +2.8%....03/2006..60.4 +0,7%
04..........42.7....04...........54.2 +11.5%....04/2004..56.8 +2.6%....04/2005..59.4 +2.6%....04/2006..69.0 +9,6%
05..........39.3....05...........52.7 +13.5%....05/2004..56,8 +4,1%....05/2005..60.6 +3.8%....05/2006..61.6 +1,3%
06..........47.8....06...........57.0 +9.2%......06/2004..61,0 +4,0%....06/2005..62.1 +1,1%....06/2006..66,2 + 4,1%
07..........56.1....07...........67.0 +10.9%....07/2004..71,3 +4,3%....07/2005..71,3 +0,0%....07/2006..72,0 + 0,7%
08..........56.0....08...........69.3 +13.3%....08/2004..71,3 +2,0%....08/2005..71,3 +0,1%
09..........53.9....09...........61.1 +7.2%......09/2004..65,6 +4,5%....09/2005..66,6 +1,0%
10..........49.5....10...........56.6 +7.1%......10/2004..60,6 +4.0%....10/2005..61,2 +0,6%
11..........45.1....11...........56.6 +11.7%....11/2004..56,8 +0,3%....11/2005..59,3 +2,5%
12..........51.7....12...........59.1 +7.4%......12/2004..61.8 +2.8%....12/2005..63,8 +1,9%

[sn26567]

Still no negative growth figure. Congratulations, SN!

[eurofighter]

Yesterday I flew THF-BRU. It was nearly fully booked with a 90-95% occupancy.

[firrech]

Do you have some more news for SN Loadfactor in August and september?
Thank you very much.

[airbuske]

SN Brussels Airlines:

01/2002.35.2..01/2003..49.2 +14.1%....01/2004..52.9 +3.6%....01/2005..59.3 +6.4%...01/2006..60.8 +1,5%
02..........41.5....02...........50.1 +8.6%......02/2004..55.8 +5.8%....02/2005..60.4 +4.6%....02/2006..61.6 +1,1%
03..........44.7....03...........51.2 +6.5%......03/2004..56.9 +5.7%....03/2005..59.7 +2.8%....03/2006..60.4 +0,7%
04..........42.7....04...........54.2 +11.5%....04/2004..56.8 +2.6%....04/2005..59.4 +2.6%....04/2006..69.0 +9,6%
05..........39.3....05...........52.7 +13.5%....05/2004..56,8 +4,1%....05/2005..60.6 +3.8%....05/2006..61.6 +1,3%
06..........47.8....06...........57.0 +9.2%......06/2004..61,0 +4,0%....06/2005..62.1 +1,1%....06/2006..66,2 + 4,1%
07..........56.1....07...........67.0 +10.9%....07/2004..71,3 +4,3%....07/2005..71,3 +0,0%....07/2006..72,0 + 0,7%
08..........56.0....08...........69.3 +13.3%....08/2004..71,3 +2,0%....08/2005..71,3 +0,1%....08/2006..69,9 - 1,4%
09..........53.9....09...........61.1 +7.2%......09/2004..65,6 +4,5%....09/2005..66,6 +1,0%....09/2006..66,9 + 0,3%
10..........49.5....10...........56.6 +7.1%......10/2004..60,6 +4.0%....10/2005..61,2 +0,6%
11..........45.1....11...........56.6 +11.7%....11/2004..56,8 +0,3%....11/2005..59,3 +2,5%
12..........51.7....12...........59.1 +7.4%......12/2004..61.8 +2.8%....12/2005..63,8 +1,9%

Negative in august , very small growth in september

[sn26567]

Negative in August

... for the first time since the inception of the airline.

[sn26567]

October figures released by AEA.

SN Brussels Airlines:

01/2002.35.2..01/2003..49.2 +14.1%....01/2004..52.9 +3.6%....01/2005..59.3 +6.4%...01/2006..60.8 +1,5%
02..........41.5....02...........50.1 +8.6%......02/2004..55.8 +5.8%....02/2005..60.4 +4.6%....02/2006..61.6 +1,1%
03..........44.7....03...........51.2 +6.5%......03/2004..56.9 +5.7%....03/2005..59.7 +2.8%....03/2006..60.4 +0,7%
04..........42.7....04...........54.2 +11.5%....04/2004..56.8 +2.6%....04/2005..59.4 +2.6%....04/2006..69.0 +9,6%
05..........39.3....05...........52.7 +13.5%....05/2004..56,8 +4,1%....05/2005..60.6 +3.8%....05/2006..61.6 +1,3%
06..........47.8....06...........57.0 +9.2%......06/2004..61,0 +4,0%....06/2005..62.1 +1,1%....06/2006..66,2 + 4,1%
07..........56.1....07...........67.0 +10.9%....07/2004..71,3 +4,3%....07/2005..71,3 +0,0%....07/2006..72,0 + 0,7%
08..........56.0....08...........69.3 +13.3%....08/2004..71,3 +2,0%....08/2005..71,3 +0,1%....08/2006..69,9 - 1,4%
09..........53.9....09...........61.1 +7.2%......09/2004..65,6 +4,5%....09/2005..66,6 +1,0%....09/2006..66,9 + 0,3%
10..........49.5....10...........56.6 +7.1%......10/2004..60,6 +4.0%....10/2005..61,2 +0,6%....10/2006..61,9 + 0,7%
11..........45.1....11...........56.6 +11.7%....11/2004..56,8 +0,3%....11/2005..59,3 +2,5%
12..........51.7....12...........59.1 +7.4%......12/2004..61.8 +2.8%....12/2005..63,8 +1,9%