Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

[RoMax]

WHO, Doctors without Borders, IATA and Sierra Leone government are four major involved institutions that I know of that applauded SN for still flying to these countries and all of them ask other airlines to resume flying immediately. Closing the country would work maybe in Europe, North America or better developed parts of Asia and the Middle East or in case it's a disease which spreads through the air, but not in Africa and not with Ebola, they do not have the local resources to fight the epidemic and need to source them from abroad (both relief goods and people).

[OO-ITR]

Dont worry airazurxtror will use ANYTHING to bash SN, even if it takes him an all day search on the internet.

A newspaper has its opinion; WHO, local governements, help organisations have theirs...

[cathay belgium]

Hi,

About Ebola : maybe SN isn't to blame but a quarantaine period for each flight arriving from an infected country could be a wise but expensive option for the government...
Maybe Ebola is worse then Syria/Ukraine/IS.. with now more then 1.200.000 new infections predicted by the CDC ,USA by january 2015 . Killing 90 % of the infected people..
Better safe then sorry IMO..

Maybe we can blame the government afterwards, if there is any by then...
or maybe I saw too many horror movies lately.. but even the most futuristic movies will become true in the end.. why not a horror movie...

... read EXIT MUNDI by Maarten keulemans, great book !!

CXB

HHHMM... better move this to the ebola topic moderator although could be a worst case future scenario :p

[RoMax]

Maybe Ebola is worse then Syria/Ukraine/IS.. with now more then 1.200.000 new infections predicted by the CDC ,USA by january 2015 . Killing 90 % of the infected people..
Better safe then sorry IMO..

That's more like a worst case scenario and currently this epidemic is not killing 90% of the infected people (though it could evolve to that percentage).

But I wouldn't say it's worse as Syria/Iraq/IS, though it depends on how you look at it, but for example in Turkey they really struggle to cope with al these people from Syria and Iraq (around 3 million! fled to Turkey by now). Even in Istanbul where I am now, you can notice it, with the Immigration Services flooded with work, especially now also legislation for foreigners changed this summer (and that's just the paperwork, imagine how it's like near the borders where these people actually 'try to survive'). But ok, that's off-topic.

[FlightMate]

Anyone with access to the entire interview?

Gustin seems to be saying that SN is not making extra money of their flights to Ebola affected countries.

[b720]

I do not think that quarantine is necessary. Will be cheaper and more effective to cancel the route. Sierra Leone does seem to have achieved something by their recent 3 shut down. If the situation does not stabilize, I guess that SN will have to suspend the flights. And on response to the comments on Turkey and the ISIS (Off topic I know, and am sorry but could not hold myself).. Turkey is the only country in the region that has refused to join the campaign against the ISIS terrorists. Turkey is the only country buying oil - at dirt cheap prices - sold by the ISIS from Syrian and Iraqi refineries seized by the ISIS hence providing that organization with CASH! and IST is the gateway for would be terrorists flying out of BE, F, D, GB etc into Syria. I guess they fly TK? And I am sure that they do not hitch their way to the Syrian border.. they are met and greeted at IST!
Maybe SN should fly to Damascus and charge EUR 2000 O.W. fares.. flights will be overbooked!

[RoMax]

I do not think that quarantine is necessary. Will be cheaper and more effective to cancel the route. Sierra Leone does seem to have achieved something by their recent 3 shut down. If the situation does not stabilize, I guess that SN will have to suspend the flights. And on response to the comments on Turkey and the ISIS (Off topic I know, and am sorry but could not hold myself).. Turkey is the only country in the region that has refused to join the campaign against the ISIS terrorists. Turkey is the only country buying oil - at dirt cheap prices - sold by the ISIS from Syrian and Iraqi refineries seized by the ISIS hence providing that organization with CASH! and IST is the gateway for would be terrorists flying out of BE, F, D, GB etc into Syria. I guess they fly TK? And I am sure that they do not hitch their way to the Syrian border.. they are met and greeted at IST!

While I don't agree with how Turkey handles some of these things, they expressed their will to provide military and logistical support to the US-led actions in Syria/Iraq. The release of those 49 Turkish people at the Turkish consulate in Mosul helped, Turkey acting against IS with these people in the hands of IS, not a good idea. But my point was not about the Turkish government and company ethics, but about how this situation influences tens of millions people in this region in a way that millions need to leave their country (and Turkey, Jordania, etc. need to handle these issues). Ebola is terrible, but IMO IS is way worse and I don't see this changing in the next few months.

[b720]

The ISIS is a man made horrible atrocity. It can be stopped by precise military action, or by political means (if the will is there). Ebola, on the other hand is an epidemic that we can not (yet) control. To remain on topic..
We could protect aviation from ISIS by stringent security at and around airports; however it is impossible to 100 pct guarantee the health of the crew and pax on flights from S.Leone and Liberia if Ebola spreads further! I have my concerns now already for the safety of the crew operating the flights..and the PAX. Anyone knows what procedure SN follows at airports of departure, on the aircraft and at BRU upon arrival of flights originating from FNA and ROB. Have the DKR loads been affected? Maybe pax flying out of DKR to Europe shift to AF as to avoid flying the same aircraft going on to FNA and ROB?

[sn26567]

Anyone with access to the entire interview?

Gustin seems to be saying that SN is not making extra money of their flights to Ebola affected countries.

Gustin says in the interview that SN is not make more money on Freetown, but also not less. The flights to Freetown are far from full, but the flights from Freetown are fully booked for the weeks to come, and according to supply and demand laws, they have become more expensive. However humanitarian organisations get special low rates and free cargo space.

SN expects to be in the red by less than 20 million euros by year end.

About Ebola, it is much less contagious than influenza: it is transmitted only by body fluids, not in the air. SN never compels any crew member to fly to the three Ebola countries, even people on temporary contracts, and they have no problems finding voluntary crew. These people are trained to detect suspicious cases and to take necessary measures for their own health and that of all passengers. The crew are overnighting in Dakar, not in any of the Ebola countries.

[b720]

True about the body fluid thing.. I guess that answers my question.. I guess people living in the countries infected will have to carry on their lives and businesses.. if they need to travel for business or pleasure, they might postpone for a while but will eventually continue with their usual lives..

[Flanker2]

B720, please remind us who funded and armed ISIS to creation?

With that settled and some worst-case scenario's now spelling 6 figure infections by the end of the year, you sound like children when justifying SN's continued operations in the Ebola countries.

I think that if SN continues their operations, it's inevitable. It will come here.
I remind you that this is the worst ever expansion of this virus.

SN isn't going to make more money by continuing these operations, they'll however probably lose less money.
I think that ending the destinations would have a significant impact on SN's short-term continuity, so it's understandable that Gustin has immense shareholder pressure on his shoulders to continue the operations.
In one hand he has the livelihood of his employees, in the other, the lives of people whom can become victims of the continued operations of SN.

I hope that he is responsible enough to stay awake at night worrying about the people he's putting at risk, even though corporation managers nowadays tend to consider humans by their life insurance value.
I don't think that Gustin is that guy, I think that he worries.

You'd be surprised how low your life is valued by the government and corporations, try it out:
http://www.lifehappens.org/insurance-ca ... ife-value/

So I only pray for you that you or your families' lives don't get affected, because if someone dies around you, no matter how much you're hurt, you'll only be insulted more by the low compensation they give you.

[Passenger]

Dont worry airazurxtror will use ANYTHING to bash SN, even if it takes him an all day search on the internet.

A newspaper has its opinion; WHO, local governements, help organisations have theirs...

The above remark also applies to this guy:

B720, please remind us who funded and armed ISIS to creation?

With that settled and some worst-case scenario's now spelling 6 figure infections by the end of the year, you sound like children when justifying SN's continued operations in the Ebola countries.

I think that if SN continues their operations, it's inevitable. It will come here.
I remind you that this is the worst ever expansion of this virus.

SN isn't going to make more money by continuing these operations, they'll however probably lose less money.
I think that ending the destinations would have a significant impact on SN's short-term continuity, so it's understandable that Gustin has immense shareholder pressure on his shoulders to continue the operations.
In one hand he has the livelihood of his employees, in the other, the lives of people whom can become victims of the continued operations of SN.

I hope that he is responsible enough to stay awake at night worrying about the people he's putting at risk, even though corporation managers nowadays tend to consider humans by their life insurance value.
I don't think that Gustin is that guy, I think that he worries.

You'd be surprised how low your life is valued by the government and corporations, try it out:
http://www.lifehappens.org/insurance-ca ... ife-value/

So I only pray for you that you or your families' lives don't get affected, because if someone dies around you, no matter how much you're hurt, you'll only be insulted more by the low compensation they give you.

[Flanker2]

You know what Passenger?

This is all going to be wasted megabytes soon enough as Ryanair has said that they're going to take SN out.
I'm not going to waste my energy trying to help SN anymore, as their fate seems to be out of their own hands.

SN didn't want to listen? Their effing problem!

[RoMax]

I'm not going to waste my energy trying to help SN anymore, ...

SN didn't want to listen? Their effing problem!

Seriously, Flanker, you must think you are the smartest person around?

You might have some good points sometimes, you are completely anti-SN and LH no matter what they do. And don't try to act as a saint trying to help SN.

[sn26567]

SN isn't going to make more money by continuing these operations, they'll however probably lose less money. I think that ending the destinations would have a significant impact on SN's short-term continuity, so it's understandable that Gustin has immense shareholder pressure on his shoulders to continue the operations.

That's also a point in Gustin's interview. SN's long-haul operations rely essentially on Africa. Stopping three destinations there will have a considerable impact on their profitability, much more than on, say, AF or BA or EK. And given the limited risk, they are compelled to continue operating there. But Gustin also said that they will stop flying to Ebola countries if the risk becomes more important.

[cathay belgium]

Hi,

But Gustin also said that they will stop flying to Ebola countries if the risk becomes more important.

When is that ? When LF are getting worse because of panic on these destinations or when the first pax. starts bleeding and dying around in a plane..
Stopping these lines may not be forced because of money but because of safety..

And as the future expectations are running into a million, with a death percentage like we see today.. better safe then sorry...
1,2 million people in quarantaine in Sierre Leone isn't a fairy tale, it's people are taking big steps because they finally start believing this is bigger then a bird flu ...

When does the world really starts citing on this one ...

It's not a movie this one is for real..

CXB

[Flanker2]

SN isn't going to make more money by continuing these operations, they'll however probably lose less money. I think that ending the destinations would have a significant impact on SN's short-term continuity, so it's understandable that Gustin has immense shareholder pressure on his shoulders to continue the operations.

That's also a point in Gustin's interview. SN's long-haul operations rely essentially on Africa. Stopping three destinations there will have a considerable impact on their profitability, much more than on, say, AF or BA or EK. And given the limited risk, they are compelled to continue operating there. But Gustin also said that they will stop flying to Ebola countries if the risk becomes more important.

Thank you for mentioning that, I think that it's important that we have all the information.

Can't the government work out a subsidies package for SN if they stop commercial flights to those countries? I think that that would be justified to the EU as it's not anti-competitive but for national safety.

[RoMax]

And as the future expectations are running into a million, with a death percentage like we see today.. better safe then sorry...
1,2 million people in quarantaine in Sierre Leone isn't a fairy tale, it's people are taking big steps because they finally start believing this is bigger then a bird flu ...

No major organisation such as WHO, IATA, CDC, Doctors without Borders, etc. requested to stop flying, quite the contrary and they all state that the spreading of the disease via air transport is "low". What do you think will be the effect if SN stops flying to Freetown? Yes Belgium, SN and the rest of the world might be very marginally safer, but in Sierra Leone health workers are stuck, without supplies, no one will be able to help. The only thing they can do in such an event, is waiting until it all goes over on its own because Sierra Leone locked its borders for other Ebola hit countries and air transport is the only way to enter the country. And you can't just let everyone sit at home just waiting until it's all over, food and drinks need to be distributed to just name the most important thing. It's not like people overthere have supplies at home to survive for a few weeks. And no, healthworkers with secured clothing cannot do that job either, because they don't have the resources for that (especially not if they are blocked from acces to air transport).

And even if someone enters Europe or another 'developped' part of the world, the chances of causing an epidemic is extremely but really extremely small (because contrary to e.g. bird flu, Ebola is not that contagious and western health sector is way better developed to handle such an event), except when the virus starts mutating to a much more aggressive type of Ebola and/or even starts spreading through air, but we are not even close to such a situation.

[airazurxtror]

About Ebola, it is much less contagious than influenza: it is transmitted only by body fluids, not in the air. SN never compels any crew member to fly to the three Ebola countries, even people on temporary contracts, and they have no problems finding voluntary crew. These people are trained to detect suspicious cases and to take necessary measures for their own health and that of all passengers. The crew are overnighting in Dakar, not in any of the Ebola countries.

In "Le Soir", tuesday issue, page 10, there was an feature entitled "Ebola : le vol à risque", listing the breaks where the contamination could creep in.
- before boarding
- after boarding
- in flight
- at landing
- after exit from the airport

Before boarding :
- each passenger at Monrovia, Fretown or Conakry airport must declare on his honor that he is not sick with Ebola and has not been in contact with the virus ...
- the only medical test by local agents is the body temperature; in the first stage of Ebola a Dafalgan is enough to lower the temperature under 37,5°, which is good to board the airplane.
- some thermometers are known to have shown 20 °...
- the thermoscan must be used at a fixed distance and aim at a certain point of the temple, the measurement is not always accurately made; there is no systematic control at the exit of the VIP lounge ...

After boarding :
- it is acknowledge that there is no contagion if there are no symptoms. According to an expert, between 24 and 48 hours before the symptoms, there are already enough viruses to be contagious. For instance, microdrops of blood could be dispersed when blowing one's nose.
- the virus is in the urine, stool, vomit - but there is no systematic disinfection of the toilets after each use; no mandatory use of disinfectant gel when exiting from the toilets

During the flight :
- if there is a pax becoming sick, he is isolated in a row, if there is room enough. There are around ten masks and more gloves to be given to the passengers nearest to him. The captain then notifies BRU.

After landing :
- the sick is carried to a hospital; Saniport makes a list of the other passengers (they have remained on board).
- a passengers that begins to develop a temperature during the flight will freely go away after landing, in Belgium or on a connecting flight, there is no temperature control at landing

[cathay belgium]

Hi,

Airazur is making points here..

? Yes Belgium, SN and the rest of the world might be very marginally safer, but in Sierra Leone health workers are stuck, without supplies, no one will be able to help.

Indeed, this shows me that a civil airliner doesn't / might not have to do this..
This is military in my eyes,what did we Belgiums rent the A321 for.. flying monkeys ?

except when the virus starts mutating to a much more aggressive type of Ebola and/or even starts spreading through air, but we are not even close to such a situation.

Sorry Romax, your studying aviation,not biology..

Not even close ? How can you tell ? It can have mutated to an airborne one.. an hour ago..
No-ane can tell, no-one can agree / disagree.. we only have statistics ...

Do you trust statistics ?

Yeah, a lot of us do.. but when it concerns your own life ?

Don't say we have to let the people die over there, on the contrary.. but this must be military this time..

on a note / off topic
What I noticed is that our bFast team isn't so fast in this case and searching for apologies to go..
No available equipment,no useful equipment,yeah right...
Guess they don't dare to be this time the fastest disaster voyeurs :p



CXB