The Boeing 747-Adv

B744skipper · Post by **B744skipper** » 06 Jun 2005, 00:58

In this article, the British Airways CEO Martin Broughton stated that the airline is in talks about buying the Boeing 747-Adv if* Boeing decides to go ahead with the aircraft.
A more remarkable statement he made is that he rather replace the B747 fleet with American planes, then with the A380.

I would really hope that the Boeing 747-Adv project will go ahead, after Cathay Pacific (who have expressed interest if* Boeing decides to go ahead with the project), British Airways is also expressing interest in the Boeing 747-Adv.
After all, the Boeing 747-Adv will have significant lower operating costs then the existing B747-400's, and not to forget, it also could be a very good competitor to the A380/A346/B773 (when looking at seat per mile cost). Secondly, it would fill in the gap that exists between the A346/B773, and the A380. Also the aircraft could be very wanted as a B747-Adv Freighter, with lower operating costs and the nose loading cargo door.
It will probably also be cheaper to acquire, since the development costs will be very low. That said, Boeing will need to sell not that many planes to reach break-even point, whereareas the A380 has high development costs and need a lot more sold to be profitable (although the aircraft do not compete directly).
What can't be forgotten is that the Adv will weigh 175,000 lbs less than the A380 but carry only 25,000 lbs less payload. The B747-Adv also requires less airport modification than the A380, meaning greater flexibility in network planning.

*A lot of "if's" around here, it seems that customers themselves are unsure if Boeing is going ahead with the project. It is now or never for Boeing, if they wait to long customers could be scared away/lost (they will be looking for other alternatives), and it would be too expensive to keep the current Boeing 747-line open.

What could possible other (future) customers be? KL, CX, AI, JL, ANA or Cargolux? Maybe even LH and Qantas? I can't see those airlines replacing all of their B744 fleet with A380's, that would be too many seats to fill. And since there is such a gap between the A346/B773 and the A380, we maybe could also see some orders from them?

Time will tell what happens, but if I'm a dreamer, I would wish that Boeing announces the go ahead for the B747-Adv project at Le Bourget, and maybe even the first orders for it! Sigh......

The proposed Boeing 747-Adv, the stretched parts of the fuselage are highlighted.

HorsePower · Post by **HorsePower** » 06 Jun 2005, 01:39

Definitely, the B747-Adv is a beautifull airplane. No doubt it will be lauched.

Martin Broughton wrote:And he said BA, which has just gone through a painful redundancy programme that cost 13,000 jobs, would be forced to make further job cuts.

Hum, an other job cutting whereas they make profits

.

Cathay Pacific: I've heard they could order some A380 within 2 weeks, but I could be wrong.

British Airways: they have to renew the B767 first! some clues has been given in the article concerning an hypothetic date. According to Airports International, LHR is going to be an A380 heaven, no mention that Cathay could come there with A380s too! But nothing is frozen yet...
On a side note, I expect them ordering some B777-300ERs.

KLM: not for tomorrow, if ever they order something as big as B747-Adv or A380. I expect them ordering some B777-300ERs.

Air India: definitely, they are on the market for B747-Adv or A380.

Japan Airlines: B747-Adv

All Nippon Airways: B747-Adv

Cargolux: B747-Adv F

Lufthansa: Hum... B747-Adv F why not? Most likely some B777-200LRFs.

Qantas: They already ordered 12 A380 with 12 more on options.

...

Regards

Seb. 8)

A380-800 · Post by **A380-800** » 06 Jun 2005, 05:42

Yes, I think the B747ADV should be launched ! But I also think that
BA will order the A380 (beside the 747ADV) in the future, just because
all other big (and national) carriers fly it, too. I would see them ordering
at least 5 A380's and the rest Boeing. Not yet sure, about the time frame.

rgds,

A380-800

bits44 · Post by **bits44** » 06 Jun 2005, 06:19

Without giving away any secrets I think all the Boeing fans will be delighted at the announcements to made at Paris, a huge order for 777's as well as an announcement regarding 747ADV's which have had very positive responses from Freight carriers as well as PAX config's. The 747ADV would not take long to fit into the production line, most of the design work has been done using CAD, probably late 2006 and it would be ready to fly. Mention was made of the costs involved in producing this Aircraft, and they are very true the development costs to redesign the 747 are minimal, the plane will be dirt cheap to buy, and all airlines are looking to save a money in a big way right now.

KT

B744skipper · Post by **B744skipper** » 06 Jun 2005, 12:13

Regarding British Airways, I was thinking, if BA needs to replace the Boeing 767-300 first (are they really that old?). And because BA does also use them on high-density short-haul routes, the A350 would not be a viable option. One also needs to consider that it seems that BA has commited to Boeing for their Long-haul fleet.
So it would make more sense for them to order the B787, and then they could get a nice package from Boeing including the B747-Adv, B787 and B773.
I don't see BA ordering just a few A380's though, that would be too much costs for a small fleet of A380's.

But we need to wait for Paris, it seems that it will hold a lot of surprises for us, from both Boeing and Airbus. I can't wait!

B744skipper · Post by **B744skipper** » 06 Jun 2005, 18:20

Things seem to look good for the B747-Adv, they seem to be near a go ahead for the project, maybe we will see some B747-Adv news at Le Bourget (maybe that is what bits44 is talking about?):

Boeing appears to be moving toward a July launch of both the cargo and passenger versions of the 747ADV. A number of airlines are interested in the passenger version, while a more significant number will take the freighter. Air New Zealand MD and CEO Ralph Norris told ATWOnline that while his airline has ordered 777-300ERs to replace its 747-400s, it would be interested in a number of 747-400ADVs for major routes.

Full article can be found here.

HorsePower · Post by **HorsePower** » 12 Jun 2005, 17:39

The board council of Boeing will make a decision concerning the B747-Adv during their next meeting end of June.

Seb.

Buzz · Post by **Buzz** » 13 Jun 2005, 22:11

Thanks B747skipper, that's a very interesting picture you found !
I would have thought they needed bigger extra sections to squeeze in 50 extra people...

C_J · Post by **C_J** » 13 Jun 2005, 22:13

BA is not very 'airbus-minded' in its long haul fleet. Any explanation?

Buzz · Post by **Buzz** » 13 Jun 2005, 22:22

C_J wrote:BA is not very 'airbus-minded' in its long haul fleet. Any explanation?

They got a better deal from Boeing?

B744skipper · Post by **B744skipper** » 13 Jun 2005, 22:39

C_J wrote:BA is not very 'airbus-minded' in its long haul fleet. Any explanation?

I'm not sure, but maybe it also could have to do with the fact that they already operate only Boeing on the long-haul routes, and are not to fond of introducing more types into that fleet?
I guess if they would do that, it would cost them a lot of money regarding retraining pilots, mechanics and staff onto another kind of aircraft which is build by another manufacturer and differs greatly with Boeing-type aircraft.

That could be one reason, but I think that the Boeing-minded vision of BA is a mix of various reasons.

Sabena_690 · Post by **Sabena_690** » 14 Jun 2005, 11:06

British Airways: they have to renew the B767 first!

BA is in the process of upgrading the B763 fleet: most of them will operate longhaul flights from now on, and those aircraft get a World Traveller, World Traveller Plus and Club World cabin (with the flatbeds in Club World and the 38inch seats in WT+).

Those aircraft won't leave the fleet soon...

B744skipper · Post by **B744skipper** » 15 Jun 2005, 10:22

Things seem to look good for the B747-Adv project, it seems that it only will take the formal decision at the board meeting to give a formal go ahead for the project!

The head of Boeing Italy and vice president of Boeing International said to Italian journalists:
"Boeing will launch a new version of the 747 to counter the A380. Boeing has decided on the relaunch, with a larger version, of this glorious airplane which is 30 years old"

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCo ... 162_newsml

HorsePower · Post by **HorsePower** » 16 Jun 2005, 21:37

Likely customers are 60% freighter version and 40% for passenger version. I had started a draw of the Adv but I don't find the time to finish it. I hope I will show you one day

.

This bird is really beautifull and yes, if I were an airline manager :loveit: , I would choose the B747-Adv over the A380-800. That's said :plane: !

Seb.

SR89 · Post by **SR89** » 16 Jun 2005, 22:20

My bets are on Cargolux.

Buzz · Post by **Buzz** » 17 Jun 2005, 00:38

B744skipper wrote: I guess if they would do that, it would cost them a lot of money regarding retraining pilots, mechanics and staff onto another kind of aircraft which is build by another manufacturer and differs greatly with Boeing-type aircraft.

Airbus would be more than happy to pay for these costs (see the easyJet order/AirBerlin order for example.)

B744skipper wrote: That could be one reason, but I think that the Boeing-minded vision of BA is a mix of various reasons.

Indeed, the reasons for choices in the past we'll never know.
The choices in the future will be based on cost-analysis, and market demand. BA, is not in the best of situations, and have shareholders to report to now.

bigjulie · Post by **bigjulie** » 19 Jun 2005, 06:15

Btw Air New Zealand MD and CEO Ralph Norris, is resigning from Air New Zealand to take up the CEO position with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. I wish him well.He has a history in the banking sector.

B744skipper · Post by **B744skipper** » 24 Jun 2005, 16:11

Randy is talking about the Boeing 747-Adv again:

http://www.boeing.com/randy/archives/20 ... iming.html

In a news briefing during the show, Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Alan Mulally told reporters that we’d probably decide later this year whether to launch the 747 Advanced. He confirmed that we've gotten "extremely strong interest" from airlines in the Advanced.

What makes me wonder; why not launch the aircraft if there is sufficient demand?

Waiting any longer will detract any potential customers.
I am sure will be launched, but the delay is mystery to me. Are they waiting for more commitments or something like that? Or do they want to be sure that the GenX engines will perform, as they should?

And right now there are 24 orders for 747-400s, both passenger and freighter versions.

They can keep the line open for a while now, but does anyone knows who the customers are besides Nippon Cargo Airlines?

No doubt the 747 Advanced with the new-technology GEnx engines in development for the 787 Dreamliner would be more efficient than the much larger A380 - in both passenger and freighter versions. The 747 Advanced would have the same range as the A380, while still fitting into today's airport infrastructure.

He is right about the infrastructure statement, but that of the lower trip costs for the B747-Adv is a bold statement, let's see if Boeing can make this true. I wonder how he can say this already, because Boeing seems to have gone a far way with the B747-Adv engineering to be able to provide such information (for some eyes only). I am really curious, Boeing says it has enough demand, and they seem to have come a far way with the engineering, but to me it is a mystery why they keep all the information in the dark and don't launch the aircraft. The only point what I could see, is that they still wait for the engines?
Regarding that, Randy states that we won't see the Boeing 747-Adv fly, until the B787 flies, do to the engines (B747-Adv and B787 share the same engines).

Either way, here is another nice impression of the B747-Adv, both the passenger version as well as the freighter version:

lastrow · Post by **lastrow** » 24 Jun 2005, 17:37

I think Boeing would be stupid if the skip the 747-ADV. what would bet their alternatives for the next ten years? The BWB idea is too far away. The 777 is limited in pax seats. keeping the 744 would mean that any A380 would transport clearly more (passengers or freight) with the same cost compared to what Boeing is offering. what are your opinions? - I clearly think they will go for it and I would be glad to see Boeing developing a 744 sucessor.

-lr.

BTW. randy is just a funny guy

dimitrios82 · Post by **dimitrios82** » 25 Jun 2005, 12:52

The B747 has always been a remarkable aircraft and it will always be! It is a good idea however to create a new B747 Adv because now there are two big passenger jets in the industry and competition will certainly be very tough!