Now that Airbus has successfully completed the first flight of the A380, and all the smoke and glitz are gone, the stark face of reality now faces Airlines around the world.
The Questions are many! is there sufficient traffic to warrant purchasing an A380 or should we go with a 787 or maybe a smaller 747ADV, will there be sufficient airports to accept a A380 or not? fuel costs are going through the roof, can we justify the capacity to make the route profitable? These and a myriad of others are facing all carriers, the future is clouded, the decisions that airlines make now must ensure the profitability in the future. What shall we do, we think we know what our customers want, but do we really?
So the purpose of this poll is to get everyone thinking, to put yourselves in the shoes of the Airline planners, what road shall we take, what can we do to make our decision the right one,
The future of all our employees, our company, our shareholders, is in our hands, gaze into the crystal ball, and predict the future.
KT
The Future of Aviation
Moderator: Latest news team
The hybrid solution?
The hybrid solution? A380, A340, A330, A320, A31....sn26567 wrote:The question is not that simple. I think that there is a future for both formulas. It all will depend on speed, comfort, convenience, and ... price!
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HorsePower
- Posts: 1589
- Joined: 12 Jan 2005, 00:00
- Location: France
True, it's not simple as that. BTW, actually there are 3 options, not 2:sn26567 wrote:The question is not that simple. I think that there is a future for both formulas.
-point to point
-hub to point
-hub to hub
Exemple:
Let's say I live in the country (in France), near a big town, let's say Lyon and I want to go to the US, let's say I want to visit the 8th AF museum at Savannah.
So many (future) possibilities:
-I take a plane to Paris, then I flew to Atlanta and then to Savannah (3 flights)
-I can take a plane to Lyon directly to Atlanta, thanks to Delta Airlines, with codeshare ageement with AF. then, i catch a small plane to Savannah. (2 flights)
-A new operator just open a direct link Savannah-Lyon (1 flight)
Definitely, take 3 planes for a trip will be a nonsense in the near future (ok, some of you can argue at present
)On the other hand, the direct link appears to be very thin, and won't be profitable, even with a Dreamliner.
So the second exemple could be interresting with only two flight. Also we can imagine a Lyon-Paris-Savannah trip.
I think we will see more and more destinations at each hub. But as you know, there are some constraint whith the slots allocations. So I believe also the planes are going to be bigger and bigger. I do not say that to support Airbus, but because I believe it! I'm confident we will see the B747-Adv...
The next generation for super jumbo jets will be blended wing bodies, not before 2025 at least. I think the US Air Force is looking for a C-5 replacement, not for tomorrow coz they are going to be re-engined with CF6-80E1. It will be a very heavy blended wing body cargo, with a civilian version also.
Hope this help.
Seb.
To connect 200 airports with each other there should be about 20000 routes flown by relatively large aircraft, like the Dreamliner. For a hub-to-hub connections the number required is much lower, something like 300, I guess. The reason is simple arithmetics, the number of connections for the hub-to-hub is around logarithm of the number of airport (plus regional flights by smaller planes), while the point-to-point approximately corresponds to the number of points squared (over 2). The difference between C log N and N^2 gets bigger with N.
Possibly, with time, point-to-point will prevail if airtravel becomes the main mean of transportation. But it can easily take another couple of decades.
Possibly, with time, point-to-point will prevail if airtravel becomes the main mean of transportation. But it can easily take another couple of decades.
I didn't vote in the poll for that simple reason you mention André. In the future their will be a market for both hub to hub and point to point operations.sn26567 wrote:The question is not that simple. I think that there is a future for both formulas. It all will depend on speed, comfort, convenience, and ... price!
I would guess that routes between the US and Europe will stay as they are and even multiply as point to point routes where the B787 will be extensively used. On the other hand the A380 will be more active in the Asian market (intra asian as well as Asia to US and Europe).
Chris
I don't know where you got this from but it is an empty statement.ryanvsnow wrote: Regional Jets are the death of larger A/C... and no I'm not happy with that.
A lot of people are happy that there are airlines that do come to small airports where only small regional aircraft can land.
If there were no regional carriers more people should only travel by car, ever thought about that?
Erwin
A Whole Different Animal
The regional planes are very usefull and even complement the larger A/C. !!!
I'm sorry ryanvsnow but I don't agree with you.
The regional planes fly from small cities mostly to larger hubs where they feed the long haul traffic.
As Erwin said, the regional planes go to airports where larger planes cannot go. So in fact they are both very usefull and none of them is taken business from the other categoryy.
Chris
I'm sorry ryanvsnow but I don't agree with you.
The regional planes fly from small cities mostly to larger hubs where they feed the long haul traffic.
As Erwin said, the regional planes go to airports where larger planes cannot go. So in fact they are both very usefull and none of them is taken business from the other categoryy.
Chris
Nowhere is this more important than in North America!!! Geographically speaking, we have to drive farthur to the larger hub airports than someone would in Europe. Plus, at the local airports (where you fly regionals to connect to the hubs) the security lines are MUCH shorter. As for longer flights by regional jets, I could take it for up to 2 hours. And in a RJ, that'll take you pretty far. I flew from my home airport (CMI) to DFW in 1:20!!! That's central Illinois to North-central Texas in much less than 2 hours. They're comfy too (I'm 6'1" just so that you know) as long as I don't have to be in them for over 2 hours.The regional planes fly from small cities mostly to larger hubs where they feed the long haul traffic
"What's this button do?? I don't know, push it and find out................."
In my opinion, hub to hub will always be the way to go. Once the airline consolidations are complete, there will only be 4 or 5 major hubs (in the US) They will be able to control capacity and pricing. There will always be the low cost carrier to compete with. But in the long run Hub and spoke will prevail.
Pete
Pete