Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Join this forum to discuss the latest news that happened in the world of commercial aviation.

Moderator: Latest news team

rwandan-flyer
Posts: 1347
Joined: 19 Dec 2010, 12:30

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Air Côte d’Ivoire: Paris-Abidjan route stalls, Beirut already uncertain

Between a Paris-Abidjan route still far from profitable and a Beirut project suspended due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Ivorian airline's long-haul strategy is entering a delicate phase. https://www-jeuneafrique-com.translate. ... _hist=true
Unsurprisingly, the route to CDG is struggling. It's operating at an average of 40% load factor, compared to an average Air France load factor of 82% on its African routes.

The route is even underperforming, despite launched during a period of high demand for flights to Abidjan. The Paris-Abidjan route attracts a diverse clientele: business travelers, tourists, and members of the diaspora. However, Air France and Corsair have several advantages:

Air France benefits from its hub and brand recognition, and Corsair from its brand recognition. There is no information regarding the market share of the three airlines. Air Côte d'Ivoire still hopes to rely on its hub to fill its A330neos. Air Côte d'Ivoire is advocating for better slots on the route, but according to Sean Mendis, the French airlines are protecting a market they have built up over the years, representing millions of euros in revenue.

Another issue is ticket prices. Air Côte d'Ivoire aims to attract a high-end clientele, but lacks the marketing resources and global partnerships, which is not the case of its competitors. Air Côte d'Ivoire's pricing policy is struggling to attract passengers.

Air Côte d'Ivoire: Economy: €700, First Class: €7,800
Air France: Economy: €990, First Class: €4,330 (First or Business Class, not specified)
Corsair: Economy: €680, Business Class: €2,780

As for the Beirut route, scheduled to launch on March 29, 2026, it is currently in jeopardy due to the situation in the Middle East.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Recorded on February 27, 2026, before the start of the US/Israel/Iran war
In this episode, we discuss the latest developments in routes and fleets in African aviation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeRVGEgVu1E&t=4885s

Details on the FlySafair sale

Uganda Airlines: Changes in management, fleet, and routes

Kenya Airways: What are the next steps? Will it find an investor or partner? Singapore and Qatar have declined any interest.

Ethiopian Airlines: Addition of a fourth daily flight to Dubai, a second daily Bamako-Dakar flight, and discontinuation of service to Nacala.

Air Congo: Regional expansion – speculation about European service?

Eswatini Air will add Lusaka to its Harare service.

Qatar Airways reduces its frequencies to Kigali

United Nigeria Airlines: Fleet update and potential routes

Air India orders A321XLRs – destination: Africa?
Rwanda Aviation News (Drones, Air Force, Civil Aviation, Space, Air Balloon): https://www.facebook.com/RwandAn-Flyer-153177931456873

User avatar
lumumba
Posts: 2460
Joined: 04 Sep 2003, 00:00
Location: brussels Europe

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by lumumba »

rwandan-flyer wrote: 16 Mar 2026, 19:43
Air Côte d’Ivoire: Paris-Abidjan route stalls, Beirut already uncertain

Between a Paris-Abidjan route still far from profitable and a Beirut project suspended due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Ivorian airline's long-haul strategy is entering a delicate phase. https://www-jeuneafrique-com.translate. ... _hist=true
Unsurprisingly, the route to CDG is struggling. It's operating at an average of 40% load factor, compared to an average Air France load factor of 82% on its African routes.

The route is even underperforming, despite launched during a period of high demand for flights to Abidjan. The Paris-Abidjan route attracts a diverse clientele: business travelers, tourists, and members of the diaspora. However, Air France and Corsair have several advantages:

Air France benefits from its hub and brand recognition, and Corsair from its brand recognition. There is no information regarding the market share of the three airlines. Air Côte d'Ivoire still hopes to rely on its hub to fill its A330neos. Air Côte d'Ivoire is advocating for better slots on the route, but according to Sean Mendis, the French airlines are protecting a market they have built up over the years, representing millions of euros in revenue.

Another issue is ticket prices. Air Côte d'Ivoire aims to attract a high-end clientele, but lacks the marketing resources and global partnerships, which is not the case of its competitors. Air Côte d'Ivoire's pricing policy is struggling to attract passengers.

Air Côte d'Ivoire: Economy: €700, First Class: €7,800
Air France: Economy: €990, First Class: €4,330 (First or Business Class, not specified)
Corsair: Economy: €680, Business Class: €2,780

As for the Beirut route, scheduled to launch on March 29, 2026, it is currently in jeopardy due to the situation in the Middle East.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Recorded on February 27, 2026, before the start of the US/Israel/Iran war
In this episode, we discuss the latest developments in routes and fleets in African aviation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeRVGEgVu1E&t=4885s

Details on the FlySafair sale

Uganda Airlines: Changes in management, fleet, and routes

Kenya Airways: What are the next steps? Will it find an investor or partner? Singapore and Qatar have declined any interest.

Ethiopian Airlines: Addition of a fourth daily flight to Dubai, a second daily Bamako-Dakar flight, and discontinuation of service to Nacala.

Air Congo: Regional expansion – speculation about European service?

Eswatini Air will add Lusaka to its Harare service.

Qatar Airways reduces its frequencies to Kigali

United Nigeria Airlines: Fleet update and potential routes

Air India orders A321XLRs – destination: Africa?
Without a hub,for Air Cote d'ivoire the A321 XLR would have be a better choice.
Hasta la victoria siempre.

rwandan-flyer
Posts: 1347
Joined: 19 Dec 2010, 12:30

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Sean Mendis is always well-informed about Ethiopian Airlines. In addition to its order for five 777X Freighters and two B777-300ERSFs, Ethiopian will convert its six B777-200LRs into freighters. In the long term, they will have more than 20 B777F freighters (they already have 12 B777Fs). This is in addition to four B737-800Fs and four B767-300ERFs.

But how do they do it?! :shock:

Addadays (ADD) isn't among the top three African airports handling cargo. Nairobi and Johannesburg are the top two in Africa for cargo (followed by Cairo), but they are heavily served by foreign carriers. JNB and NBO are the only two airports in Africa served by FedEx and Singapore Airlines Cargo, for example. But their cargo airlines aren't really benefiting from the demand.

https://www.logisticsbusinessafrica.co. ... -the-year/


Development in Europe is at a standstill for several reasons. It should be noted that in the latest Aviadev podcast, we learned that Ethiopian Airlines has seen an increase in its North American and Asian traffic, primarily to Canada and India, due to the war in the Middle East. However, Addis Ababa is forced to ration its fuel. As a result, some Ethiopian Airlines flights to Asia are making a technical stop in Oman, and those to South America are stopping in Uganda. North American flights are stopping in Rome.

Kenya Airways has also recorded a more surprising increase in demand between London and Thailand. Kenya Airways has been serving Bangkok since 2003, with an interruption during the Covid pandemic.

However, speakers insist that this is temporary and that as soon as the airlines increase capacity, some passengers will return via the Middle East.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEzwzr0JJhA
B747-437B wrote:
berari wrote:But the plans concerning these 777Ls were certainly not drawn up in haste.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p25211989

The plans to convert the 777-200LRs into freighters have been in preparation for a long time; we even discussed them on this forum last year. I assume the order of conversions is determined by available slots and maintenance schedules. They will operate flights until the remaining cycle times are minimal, then send them to AFW at the appropriate time.
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p25211979
B747-437B wrote:
TC957 wrote:Why doesn't ET serve AMS or MUC? This represents a significant gap in their European network.

AMS (Amsterdam), due to a lack of available slots to meet their needs.

MUC (Munich), due to restrictions related to the Basis Air Traffic Services Agreement (BASA) with Germany.

LIS (Lisbon) is another route they are keen to open in Europe, but they are limited by the availability of flight slots.
Rwanda Aviation News (Drones, Air Force, Civil Aviation, Space, Air Balloon): https://www.facebook.com/RwandAn-Flyer-153177931456873

rwandan-flyer
Posts: 1347
Joined: 19 Dec 2010, 12:30

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Air Algérie inaugurated its Algiers-Kuala Lumpur route on 29MAR26 with an A330-900. The flight was full. Apparently, there is very high demand, mainly from Algerians going on holiday to Malaysia. Algerians do not need a visa to travel to Malaysia.

https://x.com/Algeria3New/status/203854 ... _&ref_url=
First flight yesterday between Algiers and Kuala Lumpur!

- Algerians flock to Malaysia every year for their holidays; it's a very popular destination, especially because it's accessible without a visa.

We observed a full plane, which is excellent news for Algerian travelers, who previously had to stop over in Istanbul, Dubai, or, more often, Doha.

Air Algérie becomes the fourth African airline to serve Kuala Lumpur, after EgyptAir, Ethiopian Airlines, and Air Mauritius.
Luanda (Angola) and Maputo (Mozambique) have just appeared on the airline's website. Apparently, these two destinations will be served via Johannesburg with two stopovers starting in mid-June 2026, using A330-900 aircraft.
Rwanda Aviation News (Drones, Air Force, Civil Aviation, Space, Air Balloon): https://www.facebook.com/RwandAn-Flyer-153177931456873

rwandan-flyer
Posts: 1347
Joined: 19 Dec 2010, 12:30

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Massive expansion for Etihad in Africa for 2027 with new routes to Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Harare, Accra and Amsara (for Nov26) :shock: . They will resume flights to Lagos.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eymar27af
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eynov26asm
Rwanda Aviation News (Drones, Air Force, Civil Aviation, Space, Air Balloon): https://www.facebook.com/RwandAn-Flyer-153177931456873

User avatar
sn26567
Posts: 41170
Joined: 13 Feb 2003, 00:00
Location: Rosières/Rozieren, Belgium
Contact:

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by sn26567 »

rwandan-flyer wrote: 17 Apr 2026, 22:14 Massive expansion for Etihad in Africa for 2027 with new routes to Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Harare, Accra and Amsara (for Nov26) :shock: . They will resume flights to Lagos.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eymar27af
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eynov26asm
And https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/etih ... -corridor/
André
ex Sabena #26567

convair
Posts: 2039
Joined: 18 Nov 2011, 00:02

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by convair »

sn26567 wrote: 17 Apr 2026, 23:56
rwandan-flyer wrote: 17 Apr 2026, 22:14 Massive expansion for Etihad in Africa for 2027 with new routes to Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Harare, Accra and Amsara (for Nov26) :shock: . They will resume flights to Lagos.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eymar27af
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260417-eynov26asm
And https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/etih ... -corridor/
Isn't the timing of such expansion a bit strange in view of the current situation in the Middle East?

rwandan-flyer
Posts: 1347
Joined: 19 Dec 2010, 12:30

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Well Flights will start in one year, they have a time.

In the same time, Turkish Airlines will suspend 9 destinations in Africa from the next month :shock: :shock:

Turkish is discontinuing flights to Monrovia, Freetown, Lusaka, Luanda, Kinshasa, Bissau, Libreville and Pointe Noire beginning May 2026.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260424-tkns26

Major blow for Luanda with the end of Brussels Airlines flights few months ago and now Turkish Airlines. 2 Europeans airlines!!

It's important to note that Turkish Airlines (TK) had the largest network in Africa, with over 50 destinations. I'll bring up an article from Jeune Afrique published in March 2026, which suggested that TK could be the big winner of this crisis in Africa.

About Kinshasa flights are suspended till Oct26 https://x.com/3P2H4L/status/2047313341131997652/photo/1 (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HGmEohgXkAA ... me=900x900)
Rwanda Aviation News (Drones, Air Force, Civil Aviation, Space, Air Balloon): https://www.facebook.com/RwandAn-Flyer-153177931456873

rwandan-flyer
Posts: 1347
Joined: 19 Dec 2010, 12:30

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

Royal Air Maroc Prepares Cuts That Threaten Tourism

Faced with soaring kerosene prices linked to tensions in the Middle East, Royal Air Maroc plans to eliminate several flight routes. This downsizing primarily targets unprofitable flights and directly threatens domestic tourism.

Confronted with a price surge deemed "unsustainable" for global transport, the Moroccan airline is preparing cuts to its network. According to information obtained by Hespress, this measure will initially affect structurally fragile routes, such as recently opened or upcoming launches that are struggling to achieve profitability. While the final list has not yet been determined, the carrier has already suspended its flights to Dubai and Doha due to the clashes in the Middle East. A source close to the matter warns that "other routes could be closed" and included in this restructuring plan.

https://www-bladi-net.translate.goog/ro ... r_pto=wapp
Rwanda Aviation News (Drones, Air Force, Civil Aviation, Space, Air Balloon): https://www.facebook.com/RwandAn-Flyer-153177931456873

rwandan-flyer
Posts: 1347
Joined: 19 Dec 2010, 12:30

Re: Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2026

Post by rwandan-flyer »

As surprising as it may seem, Brussels Airlines is arguably the best performing airline in Europe to serve Sub-Saharan Africa, despite being the smallest of the airlines if we talk BA, AF, KL or TAP. SN closed Bamako in 2010s and Luanda last year. But it has opened Accra, reopened Nairobi, will open Kilimanjaro, and is increasing most of its flights, wile KL, AF and TAP after dedecade of expansion in Africa have closed several routes since 6-7 years. Unfortunately, it is facing strong criticism on Belgian aviation forum. :mrgreen:

Two articles about Turkish Airlines were published within a month of each other in Jeune Afrique (March 2026 and April 2026). I won't give a lengthy summary of the first one.

First article (March 18, 2026)
Turkish Airlines maintains its course in Africa despite the turbulence

Opening new routes, increasing capacity, maintaining its presence in the Sahel… Facing competition from Air France and the Gulf giants, Turkish Airlines has been building its network across the continent in recent years. Will the conflict in the Middle East complicate its expansion?

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1774947/ec ... rbulences/
The first article states that Turkish Airlines had the capacity to adapt to Africa because it has a large network via Istanbul, even though this could depend on the intensity of the crisis in the Middle East and the rise in fuel prices. It also uses B737-800 aircraft, which allows it to serve many destinations in Africa with high frequencies. It also benefits from the withdrawal of European airlines from certain West African destinations.

In Bamako, it transported 65,000 passengers in 2024, including 20,000 from Europe. I will talk about again Bamako for the second article, as it is still being discussed.

Finally, the article explains that Turkish Airlines does not own stakes in African airlines, but has significant codeshare agreements with South African Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, EgyptAir, Air Algérie, and RwandAir (not mentioned in the article). Turkish Airlines places its TK code on routes operated by the mentioned African airlines, and these African airlines put their codes on Turkish Airlines flights departing from Istanbul.

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1774947/ec ... rbulences/

-------------------------------------------------------

2nd article (April 27, 2026)
Why Turkish Airlines is finally forced to scale back its operations in Africa

Turkish Airlines cuts its African network for summer 2026: ten destinations eliminated or suspended. Behind these decisions lie the soaring price of kerosene and the crisis in the Middle East.

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1791738/ec ... continent/
We have learned that Turkish Airlines will suspend service to certain destinations in Africa for 6 or 12 months. Unsurprisingly, these are destinations that are either unprofitable or barely profitable. For example, we learn that on the Freetown-Istanbul route operated via Ouagadougou, Turkish Airlines carries only about forty passengers to Freetown after its stopover in Ouagadougou.

Regarding Bamako, the volume is quite significant, with 65,000 passengers in 2024. Bamako is Turkish Airlines' third most important destination in Francophone West Africa, after Dakar and Abidjan. Turkish Airlines benefited somewhat from the suspension of Air France flights to Bamako (+2,000 passengers on the Istanbul-Europe-Bamako route vs 2023).

However, the airline faces significant competition on the Paris-Bamako route. Corsair, which operates flights between Paris Orly and Bamako, carried 91,000 passengers in 2025. In addition, it faces competition from Royal Air Maroc (they will increase some routes in W and C Africa for this summer https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/260429-atjun26af), Tunisair, and Air Algérie. In Asia, it competes with Ethiopian Airlines, which carried 152,000 passengers to and from Bamako, including... 76,000 who traveled to Dubai via Addis Ababa!!! :shock:

Emirates announced a Bamako-Dubai route in 2016 (https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... nama-city/), but bookings unfortunately closed before the first flight. It remains to be seen whether Emirates might launch the Bamako route once the situation in Mali has calmed down. I could see it working well with a tag-along service via Conakry and Dakar being served non-stop again.

Speaking of calm, that's precisely the problem in Mali: the insecurity that also led Turkish Airlines to suspend its flights. There have been fuel supply issues in Mali for months, and the various rebel groups still have the capacity to destabilize the country.

The biggest loser is undoubtedly Central Africa, which is surely the least well-served region in Africa, whether from Europe or via major African airlines. In Southern Africa, Lusaka and Luanda will be suspended, and in East Africa, Juba will be suspended.

Personal opinion (not in the article)

Etihad's arrivals in Kinshasa shouldn't obscure the poor service to Central Africa. Pointe Noire, Kinshasa, and Libreville are all affected by the suspensions. Don't forget that Turkish Airlines closed its route to Malabo during the COVID-19 pandemic. Libreville is only served by Air France from Europe. Bangui is no longer served by Air France. Malabo has not been served by Turkish Airlines since the COVID-19 pandemic, and Iberia closed its route just under 10 years ago. Only Lufthansa and Air France remain, cause Air Plus Ultra appears to have closed its MAD Malabo route.
. It's worth noting that Kenya Airways also closed its routes to Brazzaville, Libreville, and Bangui during the COVID-19 pandemic.

For Southern Africa, I'm not expecting anything new. The strong service to Europe is concentrated on South Africa, Angola (which has lost British Airways, Iberia, Brussels Airlines and KLM in less than 10 years!), and Mauritius. For Namibia, Madagascar, and Mozambique, the focus is on the former colonial empire. Lusaka and Luanda will be suspended, and it's uncertain whether Turkish Airlines' projects in Namibia are still on the table in the short term. As for Zimbabwe, the country has been trying to attract Turkish for 10 years.

East Africa is the least affected region, with only Juba going to be suspended. Unsurprisingly, it's one of the most attractive regions in Africa. Turkish Airlines is even adding flights to Mauritius and Tanzania. Apart from Rwanda, regarding flights between the Middle East and East Africa, it seems to me that almost everyone has resumed operations (Gulf Air, Emirates, Qatar Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, Flynas, Air Arabia, etc.).

The paradox of Africa is that there is momentum, but airlines are much more cautious. Turkish Airlines is doing what TAP Air Portugal, Air France, and KLM have done in recent years. Or, if we go back further, British Airways closed dozens of routes in Africa in the 2000s and 2010s.

After a decade of expansion, they closed unprofitable routes. TAP Air Portugal, for example, closed its routes to Conakry, Lomé, and Abidjan after the COVID-19 pandemic. Air France closed routes to Bangui, Port Harcourt, Accra, Monrovia, and Freetown, to name just a few destinations. KLM closed its Windhoek and Luanda routes in the 2020s. Monrovia and Freetown closed in 2019. In the early 2010s, KLM closed one of its oldest routes in Africa: Kano, Nigeria, which it had served since 1946 (https://www.facebook.com/FreedomRadioNi ... 530893035/).
Rwanda Aviation News (Drones, Air Force, Civil Aviation, Space, Air Balloon): https://www.facebook.com/RwandAn-Flyer-153177931456873

Post Reply