Lufthansa in 2025

[TimTam]

There has been a lot of "talk" on this "Lufthansa in 2025" thread about the ME3 airlines. The latter compared to the vast majority of European airlines, imho based on experience too, is that they offer a better and more consistent in-flight service and catering. Their lounges are far better than those of European airlines and certainly those of the LH Group (the IB lounge at Madrid is an exception in Europe). Unless you are lucky, you will walk approximately the same long distances in most major airports (or even medium sized airports like BRU and GVA) in the world. Well, it is good for the number of steps one should walk per day. If you have "uncomfortable" cabin luggage with you, it will add additional exercise to your trip.

Joking apart, I recently flew C class intercontinental on ITA's A330 and was not impressed ! Just a side note on this "Lufthansa in 2025" since ITA is now under LH Group's reign.

[oldblueeyes]

Could the presence of 7 (?) A321XL at ITA influnce/convince CS & Co. to seriously consider or even to buy such aircraft for other LH Group airlines ?

They offer for sure some relevant aspects in all possible ways:

- acceptance of premium cabin may be key and likely the reason to consider a dedicated subfleet ( as a side note, Eurowings is considering 2-2 business seats on Dubai routes, so there is movement on the product side)
- the 321LR may deliver some information on economical feasability - according to the ITA CEO the analysis shall be completed in 2027
- last but not least, there may be other factors influencing an analysis and a window of opportunities:
a. i suppose that LH would prepare a long term follow up order, similar to the one from 2013 -> if we look on all aircraft in the A320fam which need replacement by the next 10-15 years, we can easily add 100+ pieces, until the first follow up model from Airbus may fly; should this be the case, it may be a reasonable idea to include an order for A321XLR as well in the overall negotiation
b. currently there may be short term opportunities in the market - just counting that Wizz is delaying some deliveries, Spirit is under reorganisation and gave back to Avolon 50+ delivery slots in the coming years etc.

[Matt]

Interestingly, 2 B747-8i's are sold to the USAF.

[oldblueeyes]

Korean sold as well 5 last year.

And seems that LH got a very good price worth the transaction.

[luchtzak]

Interestingly, 2 B747-8i's are sold to the USAF.

To make Air Force One and Two ?

[Matt]

Interestingly, 2 B747-8i's are sold to the USAF.

To make Air Force One and Two ?

Heard a rumour it's for the E-4C program, to which the program was (as the rumour goes) extended to 7 airframes. (5 from KE, now 2 from LH) .

The USAF had to source 2 747-8i's somewhere and they gave LH an offer they couldn't refuse.

Air Force 1 (both) are being build up from 2 NTU's.

[Matt]

Well, my source says it's for the E-4C program, according to this article, the B747-8i's will be used to train pilots for the Air Force one

https://www.aero.de/news-51451/Das-hat- ... a-vor.html

The price that LH got for the 2 planes is the same as my source tough ($400 million)

Tbh, I find $400m for just training planes a lot of money and unsensical.

[longwings]

Could indeed be interesting for SN for potential transatlantic routes.

If BRU can build more gates for the morning bank and the pre-clearance facility, the A321XLR makes sense. Destinations like MDW, BOS, PHL, LGA, or MIA would be worth considering.

[longwings]

Tbh, I find $400m for just training planes a lot of money and unsensical.

When the budget is approaching the $14 billions mark, another $400 millions isn't that much. More likely, they will initially be used for training as SNC doesn't have the capacity to refurbish seven aircraft concurrently anyway. By using the latest acquisitions for training now, SNC can operationalize the E-4Cs sooner, and then refurbish the ex-Lufthansa aircraft.

To make Air Force One and Two ?

The Secret Service already has nightmares over all the spy gear various countries certainly left in the ex-Qatar 747 "given" to Trump before the aircraft was properly secured. If it was up to them, no US president would ever fly on a used aircraft, unless they tear it down to its individual rivets first.

[oldblueeyes]

Could indeed be interesting for SN for potential transatlantic routes.

If BRU can build more gates for the morning bank and the pre-clearance facility, the A321XLR makes sense. Destinations like MDW, BOS, PHL, LGA, or MIA would be worth considering.

I doubt that the 321XLR is a real priority at the moment. My arguments would be following:

1. Strategy
Lufthansa is consolidating currently across Europe. Brussels needs to find its own place in the group in both scenarios, with LH acquiring or not acquiring TAP.
FCO is already a future growth hub.

2. Fleet complexity

What LH is practicing currently is a medium term simplification and clean up of subfleets.
I doubt that Brussels at is current level of profits would get new complexity before achieving more simplicity.
It's peer, Austrian, is moving the fleet towards 3 subtypes : A320,A321, B789.
Meanwhile, Brussels still has some work to do for the next 7-10 years with A319(to exit), A320, A333(to exit slowly) and the new widebody generation

3. Fleet planning / priority

Currently there are already two priorities : transitioning towards all A320 in the narrowbodies and getting the right next generation widebody .

4. Markets

Some of the markerts you were choosing are random destinations, but i doubt that they would make sense with A321XLR

MDW - ORD is a United hub ensuring transit, makes more sense to operate a widebody there; MDW is a death end, the CRL of Chicago; if SN is positioning itself as a hub airline within the LH group, there is no focus on monkey airports

BOS - business traffic would rather recommend to scale towards a widebody
PHL - it is a n American Airline hub, thus no chance to have further spoke; LH itself is letting sometimes this route to be operated by Discover
LGA - again a random pick, La Guardia is "international" mainly for Canada and Mexico and no Star Alliance hub; home job for Newark comes first
MIA - i doiubt that this would be a typical 321XLR route; just think about all golfers travelling to Florida with their clubs

I'd rather say that Brussels Airlines needs to focus on getting its long haul development right, with a new generation of widebodies and parallel to its African routes there are enough white spots towards the hub of the JV partners that could be better connected, first.

[fcw]

. Destinations like MDW or … would be worth considering.

A heavy 321 would struggle to get airborne on a 2000m runway.

[longwings]

I doubt that the 321XLR is a real priority at the moment. My arguments would be following:

I actually agree with most of your arguments. If you read my post in the context of the post I replied to, there may be room for the A321XLR if Lufthansa makes it part of its fleet strategy, and the pre-clearance facility finally opens up. Absent these two elements (and more gates for the morning bank), I agree the A321XLR is far less likely.

Some of the markerts you were choosing are random destinations, but i doubt that they would make sense with A321XLR

This is where we are going to disagree, because:
a) the transatlantic market will always prefer a daily flight over a 3x, 4x weekly flight (for BOS)
b) I insist on pre-clearance being available because it will over time generate more connecting traffic for BRU making connections on the US side less a factor
c) You only need to drive a few times between Midtown (NYC) and LGA/EWR to understand why anyone who has a choice will pick LGA (similar comment for MDW).

Putting b) + c) together, I think there is a market for O/D into New York or Chicago - and it is not intended to replace the current flights. They would continue to serve connecting traffic, and the NY metro areas that are better served by EWR (New Jersey and arguably Lower Manhattan). ORD is easier to explain, it is far from everything Chicago....

PHL is the riskiest move because AA is getting A321XLRs and its strategy is to use them on thin TATL routes - so they could very well start a service of their own to compete and try and muscle Brussels out, if they don't get there first.

Also, I did look at market data, but I didn't account for golf clubs to MIA. Not my sport, I guess....

A heavy 321 would struggle to get airborne on a 2000m runway.

Fair. Forgot to check runway length. It certainly wouldn't be able to take off at MTOW, but it also wouldn't since the route is far short of the A321XLR's range and I don't anticipate significant amount of freight. That said, I don't have the data to compute weight restrictions and figure out whether it would be a viable route. Thanks for pointing out the runway restriction.

[oldblueeyes]

Let's try to put together all available informations and market trends.

Internal LH:
- initially no plans for the A321XLR, now Vrancx mantioned publicly that LH is analysing if it could work for LH
- overall strategy for more long haul
- big focus on rationalising subfleets at any base

Market reality:
- most European cities generate 60-80 O&D pax per route ( some interviews with several executives suggested so), with some notable exceptions
- but, this benchmark shows that there is a strong difficulty to fill any long haul plane, if there is no hub at least at one end
- best example here would be SAS, struggling to use meaninful the long haul 321 from Göteborg

Competitor benchmark:
- IAG ordered 14 XLRs, out of them 8 for Iberia and 6 for Lingus - i would suppose here that around 6-7 aircraft there is a minimum in order to operate them rationally and achieve critical mass at any base
- let's look at their routes:
From MAD - JFK; BOS, IAD are strong demnad hubs , Doha supplemental to the mother company Qatar airways, San Domingo San, Recife Juan are "exots"
From DUB - IAD , MSP (AA hub), IND, YYZ, CLE

Intra Group benchmark
- ITA is having some A321 LR, but for the time beeing approx half of their time they are used on shorter premium European routes such as LHR and CDG and not only on the initially targeted Middle East routes


American benchmark:
- the usage for US airlines has some similarities to the 757 family usage : primary markets are the East-West coast routes, and from the bases there is some options to secondary cities targeted (eg such as Manchester for United etc)

Thus, if A321XLR decided for SN, i would rather bet on a kind of following mix:

- East coast hubs and French speaking Canada
- some Caribbean leisure to add another type of income stream ( not sure if the range would allow ABC islands)
- some restricted markets where other LH subsidiaries have maximized their capacity (eg India)

But in such case the A321XLR would be just the door opener until critical is built up for expanding into a proper widebody.
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