Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2025

[rwandan-flyer]

Emirates celebrates two anniversaries in East Africa.

25 years of service to Uganda (one daily flight with Emirates) with 2,800,000 passengers carried since 2000. Growth continues, with a 16% increase in traffic projected since January 2025, driven by strong demand from the UK, China, the US, and India.

https://www.independent.co.ug/emirates- ... in-uganda/

The other anniversary is 30 years of service to Nairobi (two daily flights with Emirates). 6.6 millions of pax have been carried since 1995. The most popular inbound destinations are South Korea, China, Thailand, and Australia. Outbound destinations include Shanghai, Beijing, Melbourne, Brisbane, Sydney, Seattle, New York, and Washington.

Emirates employs 50 people in Nairobi and more than 1,100 Kenyans across its global network. Among them are 254 cabin crew members and 41 pilots, serving destinations on six continents.

Another interesting example since the partnership with Kenya Airways began in mid-2023 is that more than 31,000 passengers have benefited from the partnership. The most requested destinations beyond Nairobi (passengers arriving with Emirates and continuing on with Kenya Airways) are Kilimanjaro, Bujumbura (Burundi), Maputo (Mozambique), Lilongwe (Rwanda), and Kigali (Rwanda*). However, a good part of the destinations served by KQ in Africa are also served by Emirates.

Is Emirates' next destination in Africa (besides Brazzaville and Kinshasa, which have been leaked, and possibly Libreville https://anacgabon-org.translate.goog/em ... r_pto=wapp) will be among these cities? Well, I don't really believe it's Bujumbura. If one of these destinations opens, it will inevitably be operated with a double stopover, but the arrival of the B787 could allow Emirates to serve cities in Africa that are "too large" for the B777-300ER.

https://www.travelsdubai.com/29-Oct-202 ... passengers

** Surprisingly, a 2023 Simpleflying article about Emirates' arrival in Montreal stated that in 2019, Kigali, not served by Emirates (interline between RwandAir and Emirates?), was among the 25 most popular destinations for Montreal via Dubai.

[rwandan-flyer]

The Gov of Tanzania has put a lock down across the country, due to the current protests after Tanzanian election.

Tanzania: Hundreds defy lockdown in second day of protests https://www.dw.com/en/tanzania-hundreds ... a-74550928

Tourists are stranded in airports like in Zanzibar airport https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BghwRdamTNI&t=21s

I just saw on FlightRadar24, no Tanzanian airlines flights currently (09h50). Sky is almost empty, we can only see aircraft overfly Tanzania (airspace is not closed). Several airlines such as KLM, Emirates have suspended flights. FlyDubai and Oman Air still operating flights to Zanzibar (aircraft are en route)


Caution: A video is circulating showing people invading the Dar Es Salaam airport. This video is from 2021, during the arrival of the remains of former president John Magufuli. https://www.facebook.com/reel/3870522919722348

[rwandan-flyer]

Air France is considering suspending its route to Bangui. If the route is cancelled, it would take place in early 2026. This article is for subscribers only, but I am a subscriber, so here's a summary: https://www.africaintelligence.com/cent ... 525897-art

A minor bombshell on the horizon? I say bombshell because it seems to me this would be the first Air France route in Sub-Saharan Africa (AF closed its routes to Algeria in the 90s) to a former colony to be closed. Bamako, Niamey, and Ouagadougou are suspended, not closed.

However it's not like British Airways, which closed its routes to Zambia, Uganda, Malawi, Botswana, Tanzania, Sudan, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in the 2000s and 2010s.

Despite high prices, averaging €950 in economy and €4,000 in business class, the airline is struggling to make the route profitable.

Air France has reduced the number of its flights in recent years and now offers one flight per week, either via Yaoundé, N'Djamena, or Pointe-Noire. It seems to me that the route has always had two flights per week.

But the French and Central African governments are not keen on the idea of ​​Air France suspending the Bangui route. France believes this is a means of influence that has allowed it to maintain a foothold in the Central African Republic, even during its darkest periods (2021-2023, when the CAR turned to Russia).

On the Central African Republic side, the president does not have a presidential jet and often uses Air France for his international travel. This is in addition to other officials and investors.

Air France began looking for an alternative: an agreement with Afrijet, the Gabonese airline. Afrijet would operate the Libreville-Bangui route on behalf of Air France. Unfortunately, this is currently on hold. Indeed, the rather high taxes in Libreville force Afrijet to offer quite expensive tickets. The Paris-Libreville-Bangui route is sometimes €300 more expensive than the Paris-Charles de Gaulle-Bangui route, which is unlikely to attract many customers. For the time being, passengers transit through Yaoundé.

If the Air France route closes, passengers departing from CDG will still have the option of transiting via Casablanca with Royal Air Maroc, Addis Ababa with Ethiopian Airlines, and Kigali with RwandAir. Kenya Airways used to operate the Bangui route, but they have also closed it again. KQ operated the Bangui route between 2009 and 2013. The service was initially suspended due to the civil war. It resumed in 2015 and is scheduled to run until 2024 (with some interruptions).

[rwandan-flyer]

by rwandan-flyer » 20 Oct 2023, 19:24
Akasa Air (India) plans to add flights to East Africa. Without no suprise, i guess that Nairob (BOM NBO O&D 96 823 pax in 2019) i is on the top of the list. However probably there is a strong marked from Entebbe and Dar Es Salaam.

I don't think that Kigali could be on the list. Market is probably not big. I don't know if for 2022, we are at same level or over or below.

The two biggest O&D 2019

BOM KGL : 10 924
DEL KGL : 3 074

Addis Ababa, there is a strong competition with Ethiopian which provides several daily flights to India. Enough for point to point trafic.

2019 ADD BOM O&D : 31 390 while, BOM JNB via ADD : 80 898 pax

Khartoum seems to have a huge demand. Only via ADD for KRT BOM : 67 066 pax (2019). But there is a war in Sudan.

Forgot Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea and South Sudan.

Currently, Uganda Airlines, Indigo, Air India, Air Tanzania, Ethiopian Airlines, Kenya Airways and RwandAir provide flights between East Africa and India

Last article published this week https://www.business-standard.com/compa ... 941_1.html

But another one published in August 2023. No need subscription to read it https://skift-com.translate.goog/2023/0 ... r_pto=wapp

Akasa Air is again considering expanding its network to other East African destinations, in addition to its service to Egypt.

Nairobi ( point to point demand with Mumbai 74,405 passengers in 2024), Addis Ababa (point to point demand with Mumbai 31,145 passengers in 2024), and Cairo ( point to point demand with Mumbai 78,857 passengers in 2024) could be the first African destinations.

However, the airline plans to open other routes in East Africa (Uganda ( point to point with Mumbai 75,566 passengers in 2024 via Mumbai) ?

Tanzania ( point to point with Mumbai 85 903 pax passengers in 2024) ? and Seychelles ( point to point demand with Mumbai 27,319 passengers in 2024)) ? It also indicates that its aircraft can serve Mauritius (point to point demand with Mumbai 127,210 passengers in 2024).

I'm not including Rwanda this time, even though flight traffic to Mumbai is higher (16,543 passengers in 2024) than it was before 2019 (10,924 passengers in 2019), and despite the discontinuation of the RwandAir route to Mumbai. This traffic remains low.

The airline currently operates B737 MAX 8s and has ordered B737 MAX 10s.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 034362.cms

Nairobi would undoubtedly be one of the leading destinations in Africa for flights between Mumbai and Africa. Kenya Airways and IndiGo currently serve this route. I don't know if Akasa sees an opportunity to increase its capacity between India and Kenya following the closure of Air India's Delhi-Nairobi route and Air India's postponement of the resumption of its Mumbai-Nairobi route (originally scheduled for November 2024: https://www.businesstraveller.com/news/ ... a-a321neo/).

Addis Ababa: I don't think the point to point market for direct flights is large enough that Nairobi BOM and Ethiopian Airlines (thanks to its hub) in India. Furthermore, Etihad Airways, Emirates, Jazeera Airways (Kuwait), FlyNas, Kenya Airways, Qatar Airways, Saudia, and FlyDubai offer flights between Addis Ababa and India via their hubs. However, demand may still be growing.

Cairo: For the past few years, traffic between Egypt and Asia (East and South Asia) has been on the rise again. Egyptpair already offers flights, but probably not enough.

Currently, Indigo, another Indian low-cost carrier, operates direct flights between India and Africa (Nairobi, Seychelles, and Mauritius).

[rwandan-flyer]

AviaDev's November 2025 Africa Connectivity Update with Sean Mendis and Behramjee Ghadially

Topics include: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NW8LzNbHH-U&t=3178s

SAA's new Johannesburg - Gaborone route and fleet RFP

Proflight Zambia's new Maun (Botswana) route via Livingstone (Zambia)

Airlink's new Zanzibar route from June on E2
Airlink to Nacala (Mozambique) from Feb 2026
Airlink is increasing Blantyre (Malawi) to daily

Malawi Airlines Liliongwe (Malawi) to Johannesburg increased to 10x weekly
New Lilongwe to Entebbe (Uganda) route 4x weekly

Air Cote d'Ivoire to Beirut from Jan 26

---------------------------------------------

Lufthansa Group's Africa expansion

Brussels airlines to open Kilimanjaro
Nairobi-Frankfurt on LH (Lufthansa) increased from 5 weekly to daily
Munich to Johannesburg to move to year-round
Zurich to Windhoek new route on Edelweiss
Discover to add A350s
Frankfurt to Seychelles to become year-round

-----------------------------------------------

Air Seychelles to go daily to Abu Dhabi

Air Peace's (Nigeria) Caribbean charter flights

Ethiopian increasing Rome to double daily from 1 June 2026

This month's guests are:

Sean Mendis, Aviation Consultant.

Behramjee Ghadially, Aviation Consultant.

[rwandan-flyer]

Air Transat is launching its third African route, after Marrakech and Agadir, with a new route to Dakar. Dakar is starting to develop a strong network in North America. I even think there might be room for Air Canada there too.

We'll have to see what Air Canada will do. They're also targeting West Africa. And also, American Airlines, despite not launching flights to Casablanca, has identified potential destinations in Africa, probably in West Africa (https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... to-africa/).

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, East Africa has seen increased capacity, mainly with connections to the Middle East and India, while West Africa has seen increased activity in Europe and North America. https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... and-routes


Emirates to launch third daily service to Nairobi, helping unlock inbound tourism growth


https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... sm-growth/

So in summer 2026, here are the capacities from airlines based in Middle East and serving Nairobi . Few airports in Europe can afford such capacities

Dubai : 3 flights a day with B777-300ER. 5 flights a week with FlyDubai using B737Max
Doha : 3 flights a day both with B777-300ER and A350 / B787-8 / 9 with Qatar Airways
Abu Dhabi : 2 daily flights with A320 with Etihad
Sharjah : 1 daily flights with both A320Ceo and A321Neo with Air Arabia UAE
Jeddah : 6 weekly flights with A330-300 with Saudia
Bahrain : 5 weekly with A320Neo with Gulf Air
Mascate : 3 weekly flights with A321Neo with Salamair
Riyadh : 3 weekly flights with A320Neo FlyNas

[rwandan-flyer]

Air Senegal Commits to First Boeing 737 MAX Order

West African airline will purchase nine 737-8 jets for regional, international expansion
Air Senegal to place first Boeing order in more than 20 years**

DUBAI, UAE, Nov. 17, 2025 /PRNewswire(opens in a new tab)/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] and Air Senegal announced today the West African carrier has committed to order nine 737 MAX airplanes. When final, the 737 MAX order will be the airline's largest-ever fleet purchase – and first Boeing airplane order since 2004 – as it looks to expand service regionally and internationally.

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2025-11-17 ... -MAX-Order

** They talk about the 1st version of Air Senegal : Air Senegal International under Royal Air Maroc management. I took a pix of the brand new B737-700 6V-AHU (delivered in July05) in Sept 2005 at Orly. Note that this aircraft now flies for Mauritania Airlines

[rwandan-flyer]

It seems that United already ends its route to Dakar from early Mar26, after less 10 months of ops https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p25027003

Ishrion reporting that both DSS and ARN are being dropped from IAD and EWR, respectively .

Many here predicted DSS would not see success, but sad to see UA completely retreat from Scandinavia as AA and DL have been adding routes over the past few years.

I know ARN struggled distance-wise on the 752 - wonder if this will maybe come back with the XLR.

https://x.com/IshrionA/status/1990951042838900874

I wasn’t paying that much attention to DSS to be honest. What were some of the reasons people were predicting it would fail?

IAD DSS only has 3 out of 30 business seats booked tomorrow….. wow…..?

premium economy only 4 out of 24 booked

[rwandan-flyer]

Air Transat Adds Ghana to Its Destinations from Toronto in 2026

MONTREAL, Nov. 20, 2025 /CNW/ - Air Transat, named World's Best Leisure Airline by Skytrax in 2025, is expanding its Summer 2026 program with a new non-stop service from Toronto to Accra (ACC), Ghana. The route will operate from June 17 to October 22, 2026, with two weekly flights on Wednesdays and Sundays.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investi ... o-in-2026/

[rwandan-flyer]

According to ACL, Brazzaville and Kinshasa could open in Summer 2026 probably operated by Emirates. I don't understand why Abuja (so it seems that EK won't relaunch ABV DXB service suspended since Dec21 ? https://21stcenturychronicle.com/after- ... o-nigeria/ ) and Accra is listed as canceled destinations in S26. Luanda i understand because they change the airport.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoi ... QwYjY3YiJ9 (you have to go "routes changes")

Congolese press (Brazzaville side) started to talk about Emirates at BZV in April 2024:

Dubai-Brazzaville: towards the opening of a direct air route

The opening of a direct Dubai-Brazzaville air route by Emirates is under consideration. This announcement was made by Emirati authorities to the President of the Republic of Congo, Denis Sassou-N'Guesso, during his brief stay in Dubai following his official visit to Baku.

https://www-alwihdainfo-com.translate.g ... r_pto=wapp

[sn26567]

Air travel in Africa is set for major expansion, with passenger traffic forecast to grow 6% per year through 2044, according to Boeing’s 2025 Commercial Market Outlook for Africa. To support this growth, the continent’s commercial fleet is projected to more than double to 1,680 aircraft over the next two decades.

Details: https://www.aviation24.be/manufacturers ... g-by-2044/

[rwandan-flyer]

In deed, Africa growth wil be over the world average.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

FlyNas is gradually extending into Africa. Since covid, they have launched several routes to Africa (Ethiopia, Djibouti, Uganda, Kenya). Now they have expanded their code share agreements with Ethiopian into Africa with their first routes.

Also some of these destinations have already a code share with Saudia with Kenya Airways. I don't see SV or FlyNas do what Qatar Airways or Turkish Airlines in Africa (especially Saudia Airlines which has closed routes to Johannesburg, Entebbe and Dar Es Salaam), however i guess they have some destinations in Africa in target. Some of these destinations have a point to point demand with Saudia Arabia (export: religious tourism + labor, import : business and high end tourism) but we have to add connecting with India, Dubai, Qatar or the rest of Asia if we talk about Saudia Airlines.

Here are the destinations served by Ethiopian Airlines under FlyNas code share that you can see on FlyNas website

Abidjan (Ivory Coast)
Accra (Ghana),
Cape Town (South Africa)
Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) code share KQ / Saudia Airlines
Johannesburg (South Africa) code share KQ / Saudia Airlines
Kigali (Rwanda) code share KQ / Saudia Airlines
Lusaka (Zambia) code share KQ / Saudia Airlines
Ndjamena (Chad)
Victoria (Seychelles)

I have found this info also (article published in 2024)

Saudi Arabia To Launch New Airline Targeting Africa, Says Report https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/indust ... ith-africa

[rwandan-flyer]

No Brussels Airlines flight planned today to Cotonou (the coup is taking place at Porto Novo the capital), but tomorrow. Too early to know if the airline will cancel the flight

Attempted coup under way in Benin

An attempted military coup is currently under way in Benin, according to information obtained by FRANCE 24 early Sunday.

The coup attempt allegedly began in the early hours of Sunday, sources said, with an attack on President Patrice Talon’s official residence in Benin's capital Porto-Novo.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... -france-24


Currently Ethiopian Airlines still en route to Cotonou

[rwandan-flyer]

Air France is considering suspending its route to Bangui. If the route is cancelled, it would take place in early 2026. This article is for subscribers only, but I am a subscriber, so here's a summary: https://www.africaintelligence.com/cent ... 525897-art

A minor bombshell on the horizon? I say bombshell because it seems to me this would be the first Air France route in Sub-Saharan Africa (AF closed its routes to Algeria in the 90s) to a former colony to be closed. Bamako, Niamey, and Ouagadougou are suspended, not closed.

However it's not like British Airways, which closed its routes to Zambia, Uganda, Malawi, Botswana, Tanzania, Sudan, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in the 2000s and 2010s.

Despite high prices, averaging €950 in economy and €4,000 in business class, the airline is struggling to make the route profitable.

Air France has reduced the number of its flights in recent years and now offers one flight per week, either via Yaoundé, N'Djamena, or Pointe-Noire. It seems to me that the route has always had two flights per week.

But the French and Central African governments are not keen on the idea of ​​Air France suspending the Bangui route. France believes this is a means of influence that has allowed it to maintain a foothold in the Central African Republic, even during its darkest periods (2021-2023, when the CAR turned to Russia).

On the Central African Republic side, the president does not have a presidential jet and often uses Air France for his international travel. This is in addition to other officials and investors.

Air France began looking for an alternative: an agreement with Afrijet, the Gabonese airline. Afrijet would operate the Libreville-Bangui route on behalf of Air France. Unfortunately, this is currently on hold. Indeed, the rather high taxes in Libreville force Afrijet to offer quite expensive tickets. The Paris-Libreville-Bangui route is sometimes €300 more expensive than the Paris-Charles de Gaulle-Bangui route, which is unlikely to attract many customers. For the time being, passengers transit through Yaoundé.

If the Air France route closes, passengers departing from CDG will still have the option of transiting via Casablanca with Royal Air Maroc, Addis Ababa with Ethiopian Airlines, and Kigali with RwandAir. Kenya Airways used to operate the Bangui route, but they have also closed it again. KQ operated the Bangui route between 2009 and 2013. The service was initially suspended due to the civil war. It resumed in 2015 and is scheduled to run until 2024 (with some interruptions).

Confirmed, AF will end its Paris Cdg Bangui service from 31Jan26 https://www-journaldebangui-com.transla ... r_pto=wapp