Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

[longwings]

At the end of the day the financials matter. And not every potential client is one you really want to have as a company.

At the end of the day, this topic pops up regularly and every post will fall in one of three camps:
- cancellations are too frequent, passengers will leave in droves because the airline is too unreliable
- cancellations are in line with other carriers
- Brussels Airlines is a small airline, passengers need to adapt and remember that smaller airlines proportionally have a higher cancellation rate and need to be patient

The last camp makes no sense. Passengers aren't going to change how they feel about a delay depending on what brand is on the fuselage.

So it all comes to numbers, and we never see them... because the people who have access to precise statistics wouldn't disclose them, they'd get found out and fired.

What I can see on my end is, Brussels Airlines, KLM, and British Airways have the same rate of system-wide cancellation. Air France's rate is half theirs.

[nathan_06]

Which a319 will be replaced by the new 320neo oo-sbf that will be deliverd at the end of this year?

[JOVAN2]

Well, let's be positive. An increase is an increase.

How many long haul aircraft did SN have when LH took possession?
And how many today? After only a few years.

H.A.

The problem is not the number of planes but it is getting them to fly! And from a "passenger" point of view...he's the only one who counts since he's the one who brings the money - a passenger does not count the number of planes a company owns but wonders how he will get to his destination - May/June Cancellation Festival (1 or even 2 cancellations per day) is repeated today (1 per day). Today Douale and Yaoundé, yesterday Lome and Accra. I receive SN advertisements to go to New-York...it's a joke! It's sad, very sad, but realistic and...not serious !

I agree 100% !

Most of the discussions here are theoretical, but what really matters is what passengers hear, feel, and experience. I don’t care if it “makes sense” from a business perspective to only replace the long-haul fleet after 2030 or even 2035. What matters is the situation today. And the reality today is that SN’s long-haul fleet is unreliable—too small, too old—leading to cancellation after cancellation after cancellation after cancellation.

I’m traveling to NY in December, and I’ve deliberately avoided flying with SN because I don’t want a 50% chance of my flight being canceled.

I honestly don’t understand why the LH Group is letting SN struggle with such a small, outdated, and unreliable long-haul fleet until 2030, 2035, or even 2040? Are they waiting until the last customer leaves? Do they have any idea how much damage this is doing to the brand’s image?

Indeed, the many cancellations show something is very wrong at SN. LH group is solely and totally responsible for this. They treat SN very poorly, like a bad stepmother. SN flies with scrap. LH has no intentions to make SN flourish.
LH only tried to such BRU market empty.
Actually TK and the 3 ME airlines takes most of the Asian and ME market. For American market they give it up to KL and AF. And the Spanish Airlines for Latam.
A rich and big catchment area is left to competition.
And it must be said that also BRU continues to be an ugly unattractive 'hub'

[rwandan-flyer]

At the end of the day the financials matter. And not every potential client is one you really want to have as a company.

At the end of the day, this topic pops up regularly and every post will fall in one of three camps:
- cancellations are too frequent, passengers will leave in droves because the airline is too unreliable
- cancellations are in line with other carriers
- Brussels Airlines is a small airline, passengers need to adapt and remember that smaller airlines proportionally have a higher cancellation rate and need to be patient

The last camp makes no sense. Passengers aren't going to change how they feel about a delay depending on what brand is on the fuselage.

So it all comes to numbers, and we never see them... because the people who have access to precise statistics wouldn't disclose them, they'd get found out and fired.

What I can see on my end is, Brussels Airlines, KLM, and British Airways have the same rate of system-wide cancellation. Air France's rate is half theirs.

Because on this forum you have both customers and you have aviation worker and the perception is not the same from the both sides, it's not a surprise.

Aviation is one of the most Regulated Industries in the world. It's hard to explain what there are behind the scenes (https://asq.org/quality-progress/articl ... bc6dbcefd9). A small detail for non aviation worker means lots of work for an aviation worker. Some rules that can be disrupting for passengers were created after crash or attack and it has improved the safety. But the pax can't see it, because it's the behind the scenes.

Just an example that i see everyday. Most of the time boarding closes 20 mins before the departure and pax don't understand why they are denied to board, while the plane is still connected to the terminal.

It's because you have to check if the number of pax on board is right, if there are missing pax you have to make a baggage search in the hold**. Then the load master has to finalize the load sheet and you have paperwork to sign. All these tasks can take time and if you have miss the slot you can have a huge delay depending the traffic at this time. And if the flight leaves with a huge delay some people on board will miss their connections at the arrival. And some pax on board will be angry against the airline due to the missing connection. This is the domino effects= https://www.buddhaair.com/blog/reasons- ... ate-closes

** Till the Air Indian 182 bombing in 1985 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_India_Flight_182), the baggage recognition was not mandatory and thus a pax was able to check his bag without to fly after and his bag was not off loaded.

Of course some airlines have internal pbs (and yes it's probably the case for SN during some periods), but you have also many Regulations, Laws, Procedures which are there to avoid to an airline to cheat. Passengers have be able to fly safely. And when an airline starts to cheat (normalization towards deviance (https://flightsafety.org/asw-article/no ... -deviance/), James Reason's Swiss Cheese Model (https://skybrary.aero/articles/james-reason-hf-model) ) , the consequences are dramatic

[oldblueeyes]

The usual claims come again and again - SN is doing badly, is poorly managed, there are great opportunities left below the table etc. And of course, any other buyer 20 years ago would have made out of it the greatest brand of Europe.

Let's remember several things from the past:

- Sabena and Swissair went both bankrupt
- the follow up companies belong today both to Lufthansa
- one is the star providing high net earnings, the other one is side brand

Is that truly because LH is treating Swiss great and SN badly, or is this the case because:
- the markets have different potentials in terms of economical revenue, starting from local purchasing power and ending with attitude towards LCCs
- the way of consolidation was different ( 100% straight forward to LH in Switzerland, 45% and an anti LH management in Belgium)
- ZRH airport is not Ryanair and co friendly, whilst BRU was always and CRL is an additional useless airport in the area and as a logical consequence, any investor would allocate ressources there were earnings opportunities would be higher ( we are not discussing here that for the consumer/pax the opposite is the obvious better circumstance)
- sometimes the local management of a company is playing a bid game on the wrong aircraft within the group - not to be seen as good/bad , but driving decisions or correctives in time and losing opportunities

Let's just see now some rumors on the LH fleet - the 4 A359 ex Philippines are not targeted for an Allegris cabin upgrade, but leasing may be prolonged towards a secondary brand of the group that would make a business case on them. Did i heared any loud interest from Brussels towards getting them and obviously moving the fleet modernisation program towards the A359?

[oldblueeyes]

Today is the Capital Markets Day at Lufthansa and there are some interesting news regarding the fleet.

https://investor-relations.lufthansagro ... 250929.pdf

On Slide 73 there is a 2030 Outlook of the long haul fleet.

For SN the 359 and B789 are in consideration, and it is expected that 2 families would be operating at that time. Means that we may see by end of the decade the first new generation aircraft delivered?

[Tetris]

From Lufthansa Group's Capital markets Day presentation, slide 73:
"Introduction of Next Gen A/C in all Group airlines by 2030"
Indicated on the same slide that the decision is still to be made between 787 and A350, but part of the fleet in 2030.

No surprise on the replacement candidates, but the timing would be sooner than expected.

[Matt]

No surprise on the replacement candidates, but the timing would be sooner than expected.

Not really, SFH, SFJ and SFP will be 25y old by that time. I guess these 3 will be the first to leave the fleet. All other 330's are around MSN 900-1000 and are much newer.

[oldblueeyes]

The exit may be more tactical than assumed.

Let's do not forget that during the pandemic most of the aircraft were pausing for 1-2 years or flying a much smaller amount of hours and cycles than usual.
LH as a group has 4 A333 on lease, likely some of them would be at SN.

[Matt]

The exit may be more tactical than assumed.

Let's do not forget that during the pandemic most of the aircraft were pausing for 1-2 years or flying a much smaller amount of hours and cycles than usual.
LH as a group has 4 A333 on lease, likely some of them would be at SN.

Correct, AFAIK, SFF and SFX are leased (ironically, the 2 newest airframes)

[oldblueeyes]

And than let's play the playbook of corrosion,cycles to heavy check, value of spare parts etc.
It's to early to guess, let's see first what the company would get and if new or used.

[Matt]

For those interested

https://investor-relations.lufthansagro ... 929-V2.pdf

[Stij]

For those interested

https://investor-relations.lufthansagro ... 929-V2.pdf

A bit off topic but nice to see a Belgian is still on the board...

[Atlantis]

If the data is correct, the next new A320neo, SBF, will not be delivered next month but is placed again on the original delivery date next year February

[longwings]

For those interested

https://investor-relations.lufthansagro ... 929-V2.pdf

Thanks! The two data points that surprised me the most is how small Brussels' share of traffic is at its home airport compared to its peers, and how BRU is right up there with ZRH and VIE in terms of overall passenger numbers. I expected ZRH to be higher with a large number of transfer passengers attracted by Swiss' reputation.

The group centric setup is optimistic to the extent that the main benefit the American carriers they compare their setup against have, is the flexibility to allocate crew and planes to any base or any route and adjust almost instantaneously. Joint planning, fleet management, and commercial activities are great, but together don't achieve the level of efficiency that being able to seamlessly deploy aircraft and crew on a BRU-NICE-ZRH-CDG-MUC one day and MUC-IST-VIE-BRU the next would...

[Stij]

... but together don't achieve the level of efficiency that being able to seamlessly deploy aircraft and crew on a BRU-NICE-ZRH-CDG-MUC one day and MUC-IST-VIE-BRU the next would...

That's correct, but on the other hand, with the current setup, if something goes wrong at one hub... strike, weather, disaster, you name it... the other hubs aren't impacted and rerouting stays predictable and reliable.

Also, given the different languages spoken... customers tend to be more served in their native language.

[oldblueeyes]

Short haul planning is starting to be centralized , thus here we may see some improvements in the coming years.

Let's face reality - the major challenge is local patriotism - if anything goes central, an emotional wave starts in all countries, as "their" national airline is becoming just a brand managed by "others". If you leave it local, you won't maximize synergies, as anyone is looking only to it's own limited piece of the pie.

[Atlantis]

If the data is correct and the maintenance issues are solved, SFH, will be back in service as from tomorrow.
This would be highly welcome

[Atlantis]

If the data is correct and the maintenance issues are solved, SFH, will be back in service as from tomorrow.
This would be highly welcome

And yes, SFH is flying again. Welcome back

[oldblueeyes]

LH confirmed today that Discover would get 2027-28 the 4 A359 ex PAL. This was rumored for a while, but it means that a wider door will open to do more it this direction in the future.

As side effect i would guess that in order to balance fleets, the 789 at Brussels as future model is as of today 51% vs the A359.