Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

[longwings]

Allow me to correct this.

Correct what? That they filed for bankruptcy, or that AerCap sent a termination notice for future leases? Which one is incorrect?

[oldblueeyes]

The game changer at all to me is that SN is building substance with brand new, state-of-the-art technology at acquisition, aircraft. It may be as of today a forced decision, as there is virtually no A320NEO second hand market, but it is a statement.

With respect to opportunities, i would guess that until 2030 there would be an additional allocation of new A320NEOs for SN.

What comes after is the need to start replacement of the A330 with new technology wide bodies alongside the waves of continuous replacement of older A319 and A320CEOs. The challenge there would be to finance everything, thus i see two options:
- either having the chance to get some fairly used A359 or B789 and continuing replacement of narrowbodies with new A320
- or going for (almost) new wide bodies and use some opportunities in the narrowbodies market

We shall not forget that all models A320NEO, A359, B789 which are in the (potential) game, were coming into the market around 2015-16, thus if the current shortage would be over and in the market cycle some more crises, postponment of deliveries, fleet adjustments etc would happen, there should be a fair amount of mid-live aircraft available between 2030-35.

[lumumba]

The game changer at all to me is that SN is building substance with brand new, state-of-the-art technology at acquisition, aircraft. It may be as of today a forced decision, as there is virtually no A320NEO second hand market, but it is a statement.

With respect to opportunities, i would guess that until 2030 there would be an additional allocation of new A320NEOs for SN.

What comes after is the need to start replacement of the A330 with new technology wide bodies alongside the waves of continuous replacement of older A319 and A320CEOs. The challenge there would be to finance everything, thus i see two options:
- either having the chance to get some fairly used A359 or B789 and continuing replacement of narrowbodies with new A320
- or going for (almost) new wide bodies and use some opportunities in the narrowbodies market

We shall not forget that all models A320NEO, A359, B789 which are in the (potential) game, were coming into the market around 2015-16, thus if the current shortage would be over and in the market cycle some more crises, postponment of deliveries, fleet adjustments etc would happen, there should be a fair amount of mid-live aircraft available between 2030-35.

And the 330-900 if the noise problems can be resolved.

[oldblueeyes]

If i would make a bet today, it would be on the 789.

Looking from a certain distance, i see both smaller brands of the group, SN and OS, somehow converging in their fleet streamlining :

- OS will exit the E195 size (but Dolomiti would take the planes and fly for them) and focus on A320 as core, some A321 and all 789
- SN is also streamlining it's own narrowbodies to an all A320 fleet + wetleases and would focus on 1 size long haul model
- with Africa and all its niches, the entry level size of the group is likely to come and this would be the B789
- just by chance, LH has 13 options which can be easily transformed into orders...

[Conti764]

If i would make a bet today, it would be on the 789.

Looking from a certain distance, i see both smaller brands of the group, SN and OS, somehow converging in their fleet streamlining :

- OS will exit the E195 size (but Dolomiti would take the planes and fly for them) and focus on A320 as core, some A321 and all 789
- SN is also streamlining it's own narrowbodies to an all A320 fleet + wetleases and would focus on 1 size long haul model
- with Africa and all its niches, the entry level size of the group is likely to come and this would be the B789
- just by chance, LH has 13 options which can be easily transformed into orders...

Wouldn't that be a Sabena Light all over again when they switched from Boeing to Airbus at the end of 90's with that 32 plane order?

Operationaly it would be quite daring, even with LHG backing...

[oldblueeyes]

A clear strategy means always that you know what you do and what you don't.

And if one brand in the group does not provide a certain service, another one would do it, as long as there is critical mass and money on the table.

[oldblueeyes]

Seems that the current order of A320NEOs is allocated within the group.

Lufthansa shall get the remaining unallocated A321 with PW engines.
Edelweiss is getting the 5 A320 with PW engines from Austrian.
Austrian is getting 16 A320 and 6 A321 with LEAP engines.

[Atlantis]

Seems that the current order of A320NEOs is allocated within the group.

Lufthansa shall get the remaining unallocated A321 with PW engines.
Edelweiss is getting the 5 A320 with PW engines from Austrian.
Austrian is getting 16 A320 and 6 A321 with LEAP engines.

OS has a quite old fleet. I believe that the A321neo will replace the almost 30 years old A321.

Certain A320 are also almost 30 years old. Those ones will be partially replaced by new A320neo.
Also the E195 will be replaced bij the A320neo.

From the 16 allocated A320neo, 10 of them will replace older aircraft

[oldblueeyes]

Indeed, the 6 new A321NEO are replacing the older ones. There should be a certain gain on seats.

I do believe that only 5-6 older A320CEO are due for replacement. From the 16 new deliveries, 5 would replace the current NEOs, 6 or 5 -depending on the source shall offset the E195s, and the rest are replacement.

But nevertheless, 16+6 NEOs in 3 years is a strong modernisation push, on top of the 789.

So i am curious what SN would get from 2029 onwards - i may expect either a transofrmation of 737 options in an order or an additional long term Airbus order, as the remaining options are limited. Without any growth , until 2035 SN needs replacement for 10xA319 and 9xA320, so it needs a plan with an average of 3-4 planes delivered per year.

[Atlantis]

Indeed, the 6 new A321NEO are replacing the older ones. There should be a certain gain on seats.

I do believe that only 5-6 older A320CEO are due for replacement. From the 16 new deliveries, 5 would replace the current NEOs, 6 or 5 -depending on the source shall offset the E195s, and the rest are replacement.

But nevertheless, 16+6 NEOs in 3 years is a strong modernisation push, on top of the 789.

So i am curious what SN would get from 2029 onwards - i may expect either a transofrmation of 737 options in an order or an additional long term Airbus order, as the remaining options are limited. Without any growth , until 2035 SN needs replacement for 10xA319 and 9xA320, so it needs a plan with an average of 3-4 planes delivered per year.

OS has an old fleet, so I can understand the first need there.
On the otherside, they also will transfer very new OS planes to Edelweiss.

Regarding SN, all the A319 needs to be replaced, 14 pieces. This will be via the additional 5 new A320neo. Only 1 plane is pure expansion. So around 10 needs to be replaced + a few A320. And as from 2030 all the 13 A330.

This means that SN also will be much modernized

[Atlantis]

If the data is correct, 2 more older A330 will come to SN as nr 12 and 13. IKL and IKN are now 17 years old, by entering SN it will be 19.

[oldblueeyes]

Is that bad?
Financially it means that the ownership cost for SN would be very low, as these aircraft would come at approx 14% residual value.
And being in the same age ballpark indicates that replacement would take place in a pretty short window for the whole widebody fleet.

[Atlantis]

Is that bad?
Financially it means that the ownership cost for SN would be very low, as these aircraft would come at approx 14% residual value.
And being in the same age ballpark indicates that replacement would take place in a pretty short window for the whole widebody fleet.

Where did I wrote that it is bad? Exactly, nowhere.
The ownership would be low but the maintenance and repair costs high. Look at the previous years and recent months. Aircraft are much longer out of roulation than foreseen. SN is losing money per day by canceling flights, re-booking etc. As a management you cannot longer tolerate this. But in the German HQ they like it maybe.
Honestly, from the African hub is not much visible. It's simply not serious anymore

[Homo Aeroportus]

Well, let's be positive. An increase is an increase.

How many long haul aircraft did SN have when LH took possession?
And how many today? After only a few years.

H.A.

[nordikcam]

Well, let's be positive. An increase is an increase.

How many long haul aircraft did SN have when LH took possession?
And how many today? After only a few years.

H.A.

The problem is not the number of planes but it is getting them to fly! And from a "passenger" point of view...he's the only one who counts since he's the one who brings the money - a passenger does not count the number of planes a company owns but wonders how he will get to his destination - May/June Cancellation Festival (1 or even 2 cancellations per day) is repeated today (1 per day). Today Douale and Yaoundé, yesterday Lome and Accra. I receive SN advertisements to go to New-York...it's a joke! It's sad, very sad, but realistic and...not serious !

[Boavida]

Well, let's be positive. An increase is an increase.

How many long haul aircraft did SN have when LH took possession?
And how many today? After only a few years.

H.A.

The problem is not the number of planes but it is getting them to fly! And from a "passenger" point of view...he's the only one who counts since he's the one who brings the money - a passenger does not count the number of planes a company owns but wonders how he will get to his destination - May/June Cancellation Festival (1 or even 2 cancellations per day) is repeated today (1 per day). Today Douale and Yaoundé, yesterday Lome and Accra. I receive SN advertisements to go to New-York...it's a joke! It's sad, very sad, but realistic and...not serious !

I agree 100% !

Most of the discussions here are theoretical, but what really matters is what passengers hear, feel, and experience. I don’t care if it “makes sense” from a business perspective to only replace the long-haul fleet after 2030 or even 2035. What matters is the situation today. And the reality today is that SN’s long-haul fleet is unreliable—too small, too old—leading to cancellation after cancellation after cancellation after cancellation.

I’m traveling to NY in December, and I’ve deliberately avoided flying with SN because I don’t want a 50% chance of my flight being canceled.

I honestly don’t understand why the LH Group is letting SN struggle with such a small, outdated, and unreliable long-haul fleet until 2030, 2035, or even 2040? Are they waiting until the last customer leaves? Do they have any idea how much damage this is doing to the brand’s image?

[crew1990]

I’m traveling to NY in December, and I’ve deliberately avoided flying with SN because I don’t want a 50% chance of my flight being canceled.

May I suggest you this website?

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statis ... ty-library

[nordikcam]

I’m traveling to NY in December, and I’ve deliberately avoided flying with SN because I don’t want a 50% chance of my flight being canceled.

May I suggest you this website?

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statis ... ty-library

You work "in-house", you do not have the problem of going from point A to point B following a relatively precise schedule...The "probably idiotic passenger" is external to all your considerations. He wants to leave from point A and arrive at point B with a company he has chosen on the day he has determined! In view of the recurring long-haul fleet problems that SN has been encountering for ages, in view of the various and varied cancellations that occur day by day, it seems risky to say the least - this is not a problem of mathematical rhetoric - to go to New York with SN without encountering some hazard!

[crew1990]

Because you think that as crew we do not get affected by cancellation? If it's an outbound flight cancelled, it is a gap in our incomes. In case of inbound flight then we are stuck at destination while we also have plan for the next day, a wedding, a graduation, a medical appointment or going on holiday. We are also concerned by cancellation as much as passenger are.

I operate around 4 to 5 rotation per month, meaning 8 to 10 long haul a month. Since the start of the year I have been affected by only 2 cancellation. The probability for a passenger that his/her flight is cancelled is very low.

Finally, beside working "in-house" I am passenger aswell sometimes going from point A to point B following a relatively precise schedule... Stop the emotion and be rational.

[oldblueeyes]

Well, let's be positive. An increase is an increase.

How many long haul aircraft did SN have when LH took possession?
And how many today? After only a few years.

H.A.

The problem is not the number of planes but it is getting them to fly! And from a "passenger" point of view...he's the only one who counts since he's the one who brings the money - a passenger does not count the number of planes a company owns but wonders how he will get to his destination - May/June Cancellation Festival (1 or even 2 cancellations per day) is repeated today (1 per day). Today Douale and Yaoundé, yesterday Lome and Accra. I receive SN advertisements to go to New-York...it's a joke! It's sad, very sad, but realistic and...not serious !

At the end of the day the financials matter. And not every potential client is one you really want to have as a company.