Brussels Airlines' fleet renewal

[lumumba]

Also the A350 must be much more expensive than the A330 900 to buy I mean new?
Also, it must be taken into consideration that these are not really long-haul flights; the average is five to six hours except for Nairobi,Kinshasa,Kigali and Entebbe.
Isn't the potential of the A350 too big for this type of route?


Obviously for a passenger flying economy like me the A330 is much more comfortable than the A350!

[rwandan-flyer]

Brussels Airlines

Welcome to the family, OO-SFQ!

Today, we proudly welcomed the 11th A330 to our fleet, making our long-haul fleet bigger than ever before.

https://www.facebook.com/brusselsairlin ... kw1fMEq7Fl

[oldblueeyes]

Also the A350 must be much more expensive than the A330 900 to buy I mean new?
Also, it must be taken into consideration that these are not really long-haul flights; the average is five to six hours except for Nairobi,Kinshasa,Kigali and Entebbe.
Isn't the potential of the A350 too big for this type of route?


Obviously for a passenger flying economy like me the A330 is much more comfortable than the A350!

At SNs company size it makes sense to have only 1 aircraft type.
The consequence is as usual a compromise : do you go for " too much aircraft" on certain routes to have full flexibility on development, or do you go for optimized aircraft and Limit yourself to a sweet spot.

[lumumba]

Also the A350 must be much more expensive than the A330 900 to buy I mean new?
Also, it must be taken into consideration that these are not really long-haul flights; the average is five to six hours except for Nairobi,Kinshasa,Kigali and Entebbe.
Isn't the potential of the A350 too big for this type of route?


Obviously for a passenger flying economy like me the A330 is much more comfortable than the A350!

At SNs company size it makes sense to have only 1 aircraft type.
The consequence is as usual a compromise : do you go for " too much aircraft" on certain routes to have full flexibility on development, or do you go for optimized aircraft and Limit yourself to a sweet spot.

But anyway Brussels Airlines will not go out of the sweet spot isn't?

But TAP use the 330 900 to LA!

[rwandan-flyer]

Fleet strategy is quite complex as oldblueeyes . It's not because everyone is ordering these aircraft that our airline (based in our country) should buy these aircraft.

Aer Lingus planned to add A350 in 2010s, but the order was canceled and the last 9 ordered A350s are now with Iberia. The Airline still flying the A330ceo and they don't have currently the replacement of the A330 in their fleet or in order. The A321LR / XLR is not really a replacement because it uses only on some "tiny" routes in N America, US routes to and from Shannon and sometimes in Europe. Chicago, Los Angeles or San Fransisco need bigger aircraft

TAP at the beginning had ordered A350s to replace its A340s and A330Ceos, but they have decided to convert into units from the A320neo and A330neo families. However it seems that they are thinking again about the A350, but no new order yet.

Air France didn't yet ordered the aircraft type that will replace A320ceo / A321Ceo and A330Ceo. Of course, many people that they should add A321LR to replace the A330ceo to enable to increase flights frequencies on some markets such as Mauritania, Djibouti or Chad, Central African Republic. It's among the Africans countries not served daily by Air France. But the biggest part of AF network in Africa is served daily mainly with A350, B777 and A330 with a very good loads. Not many destination need to be served 2 times a day. Only Abidjan and sometimes Dakar. Then you have cargo issue and the fact that Africa is a hot and sometimes humid weather that also can affect performances for take off.

It's probably better that LH Group takes its time to see which aircraft will be the best to replace the A330Ceo. Instead to rush and to see that the aircraft is not really suitable to SN ops in Africa. As oldblueeyes has said, SN will probably need only 1 type aircraft for its long haul fleet because of the size of its long haul market (A330Neo or A350 or B787-9 or A321LR)

[oldblueeyes]

Maybe we should not forget the market momentum factor.

TAP switched from 359 to 339 as the company was privatized, the investors had a strong stake in Azul as well and they decided to order A339 for both TAP and Azul.

Many large orders in Europe coming from last years - eg ITA and Condor were a consequence of the momentum, as the lead buyer of the A339, AirAsiaX , cancelled its order of 75 aircraft. Likely the price point was so attractive that even Delta contracted some.

I am not sure if today, given Boeings backlog on the 789 the readiness of Airbus would be so big to offer heavy rebates.

And likely as the majority of these aircraft at least in Europe are leased, good deals may come in the early 30s, as some of the companies would have the option to opt out and get mid life A359s.

[lumumba]

A mix of A321LR with 339(if possible second hand)could be a good option?
It's still one long haul type,the 321 is from the 320 family.

[oldblueeyes]

Who knows?

321LR
- currently ITA has some in their fleet, using them on longer continental routes or where premium demand is higher and mainly on Middle East routes with less cargo needs
- LH was until now reluctant to the model, as overall the belly cargo plays a role in the groups economics
- SN mentioned in the past that for African routes, due to the heavy amount of luggage per pax (average 80kg), belly space and capacity are key

Maybe the XLR suits better, but SN would still need to generate a business case for a subfleet of 6-7 aircraft to match minimum economics. Likely 2 more widebodies that can fly some leisure routes as well eg Caribbean would be the less risky and more rewarding strategy.

I am not betting on the A339 - rather B789 in a similar business model to Austrian, or A359.

[lumumba]

Who knows?

321LR
- currently ITA has some in their fleet, using them on longer continental routes or where premium demand is higher and mainly on Middle East routes with less cargo needs
- LH was until now reluctant to the model, as overall the belly cargo plays a role in the groups economics
- SN mentioned in the past that for African routes, due to the heavy amount of luggage per pax (average 80kg), belly space and capacity are key

Maybe the XLR suits better, but SN would still need to generate a business case for a subfleet of 6-7 aircraft to match minimum economics. Likely 2 more widebodies that can fly some leisure routes as well eg Caribbean would be the less risky and more rewarding strategy.

I am not betting on the A339 - rather B789 in a similar business model to Austrian, or A359.

Do you really need 6-7 XLR's it's part of the A320 fleest ultimately?

[Lux_avi]

Likely 2 more widebodies that can fly some leisure routes as well eg Caribbean would be the less risky and more rewarding strategy.

The Caribbean?
Air Belgium lost tons of money on its PUJ route.
TUI is dropping its long haul ops from Belgium.

The yields are extremely low on those destinations and the offer is already huge around Belgium.

I don't think SN would be crazy enough to think they can make money on this market.

[oldblueeyes]

Do you really need 6-7 XLR's it's part of the A320 fleest ultimately?

Yes.
Rule of thumb for minimal critical mass on long haul operations is 5 aircraft for 4 destinations from a base.
You may need to take into account time lost with maintenance, economics of spare engines, buffers for delays, AOG etc

The pilot pool may be the same, but everything related to operations is different and follows other cycles and economic model.

Of course , at a certain point the marginal gains become near to zero and that's why larger companies can operate effectively many subfleets each having critical mass, in general exotic subfamilies have a productivity issue.

[oldblueeyes]

Likely 2 more widebodies that can fly some leisure routes as well eg Caribbean would be the less risky and more rewarding strategy.

The Caribbean?
Air Belgium lost tons of money on its PUJ route.
TUI is dropping its long haul ops from Belgium.

The yields are extremely low on those destinations and the offer is already huge around Belgium.

I don't think SN would be crazy enough to think they can make money on this market.

Again, it depends what and how you operate.
If the majority of your seats are pre contracted by operators, the risk is pretty low.
As well if you have the right mix eg with city pairs, the overall economics may look great.

Just because Air Belgium tried something in pax business without any clue it does not mean that it can't work. And the dumbest experiment in the industry is not necessarily a benchmark.

[lumumba]

Do you really need 6-7 XLR's it's part of the A320 fleest ultimately?

Yes.
Rule of thumb for minimal critical mass on long haul operations is 5 aircraft for 4 destinations from a base.
You may need to take into account time lost with maintenance, economics of spare engines, buffers for delays, AOG etc

The pilot pool may be the same, but everything related to operations is different and follows other cycles and economic model.

Of course , at a certain point the marginal gains become near to zero and that's why larger companies can operate effectively many subfleets each having critical mass, in general exotic subfamilies have a productivity issue.

Is this calculation still effective knowing that the fleet is the same.(has the A320)

[lumumba]

Likely 2 more widebodies that can fly some leisure routes as well eg Caribbean would be the less risky and more rewarding strategy.

The Caribbean?
Air Belgium lost tons of money on its PUJ route.
TUI is dropping its long haul ops from Belgium.

The yields are extremely low on those destinations and the offer is already huge around Belgium.

I don't think SN would be crazy enough to think they can make money on this market.

Again, it depends what and how you operate.
If the majority of your seats are pre contracted by operators, the risk is pretty low.
As well if you have the right mix eg with city pairs, the overall economics may look great.

Just because Air Belgium tried something in pax business without any clue it does not mean that it can't work. And the dumbest experiment in the industry is not necessarily a benchmark.

I didn't read well at first I understand.

[Homo Aeroportus]

Just a reminder; the A321XLR is an Xtra Long Range machine.
Qualified by Airbus as a "Road Opener", see range :

202 Pax in decent config for long duration flight. 244 Max in single class.

Severe impact on cargo capacity due to the permanent RCT, Rear Central Tank, losing 3.5-4.0m on the rear cargo hold.
And optional ACT in the FWD hold.

H.A.

[Conti764]

Likely 2 more widebodies that can fly some leisure routes as well eg Caribbean would be the less risky and more rewarding strategy.

The Caribbean?
Air Belgium lost tons of money on its PUJ route.
TUI is dropping its long haul ops from Belgium.

The yields are extremely low on those destinations and the offer is already huge around Belgium.

I don't think SN would be crazy enough to think they can make money on this market.

One thing I've always wondered about is whether SN could make some Caribean destinations work, with BRU ideally located in the middle of AMS and CDG. With AF/KL now having a monopoly on some routes I imagine fares are pretty high and SN should be able to undercut them without too much risk, no?

[brabel]

Likely 2 more widebodies that can fly some leisure routes as well eg Caribbean would be the less risky and more rewarding strategy.

The Caribbean?
Air Belgium lost tons of money on its PUJ route.
TUI is dropping its long haul ops from Belgium.

The yields are extremely low on those destinations and the offer is already huge around Belgium.

I don't think SN would be crazy enough to think they can make money on this market.

One thing I've always wondered about is whether SN could make some Caribean destinations work, with BRU ideally located in the middle of AMS and CDG. With AF/KL now having a monopoly on some routes I imagine fares are pretty high and SN should be able to undercut them without too much risk, no?

That's what Air Belgium thought as well I guess.
Well. Since SN does have some feeder network and TUI is dropping out from BRU, there might be a possibility of more success than Air Belgium? SN and TUI partnership on those routes.

[rwandan-flyer]

Likely 2 more widebodies that can fly some leisure routes as well eg Caribbean would be the less risky and more rewarding strategy.

The Caribbean?
Air Belgium lost tons of money on its PUJ route.
TUI is dropping its long haul ops from Belgium.

The yields are extremely low on those destinations and the offer is already huge around Belgium.

I don't think SN would be crazy enough to think they can make money on this market.

One thing I've always wondered about is whether SN could make some Caribean destinations work, with BRU ideally located in the middle of AMS and CDG. With AF/KL now having a monopoly on some routes I imagine fares are pretty high and SN should be able to undercut them without too much risk, no?

Air France has closed 2 routes in the region during the covid: Punta Cana and Santo Domingo. PUJ were full of passengers from East of Europe, Italy, Germany and of course French. Huge loads, but horrible yields. They have also reduced flights to Cuba.

Panama is better for Air France with strong connecting with China and Africa via CDG plus of course European passengers.

KLM has a big presence because some of islands were in the Dutch Empire and ties are important like with SN which serves Bujumbura, Kigali and Kinshasa.

[oldblueeyes]

There is no right or wrong regarding the Caribbean.

Key there is to have enough capacity contracted to tour operators, cruise companies etc. Florida itself is as well a large leisure market.

The benefit of SN vs Air Belgium is that it does not have to put all eggs in one basket and hope it would work.

And than of course, choose the option with the better economics prospective, regardless where it is - this can be additional frequencies on existing destinations, new targeting outbound from Belgium, new ones targeting transfers at BRU etc.

[IronBirds@Brussels]

A mix of A321LR with 339(if possible second hand)could be a good option?
It's still one long haul type,the 321 is from the 320 family.

Right about leasing, but SN must break away from short-term strategies. Operating second-hand aircraft over 10 years old leads to higher maintenance costs, more frequent C-checks, and premature fleet renewal cycles.

A modern, uniform fleet built on a 20-year lifecycle is essential. Whether A350, A330neo, 787 or another type, the focus must be on consistency, reliability, and long-term operational planning.

Leasing is acceptable if it involves new or nearly new aircraft, ideally less than 5 years old.
Aging planes acquired for cost-saving purposes no longer align with market expectations or competitive standards...