Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2025

[rwandan-flyer]

Ethiopian and its surprises. The airline plans to open a route to Hanoi (https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250317-etns25auh). ET becomes the second African airline to land there after Kenya Airways between 2015 and 2017.

Along with Atlanta-Addis Ababa and Addis Ababa-Islamabad, the route to Dhaka (Bangladesh) is one of the airline's least successful routes, hence the extension to Hanoi, according to some. The route switched to 737Max aircraft instead of 787s due to the political unrest in Bangladesh. With Trump likely implementing a travel ban on Bangladesh, Ethiopian likely anticipates a drop in demand (https://www.goodreturns.in/news/donald- ... 11989.html)

The Hanoi schedule covers the morning connection window on some days (arrivals of African overnight flights and European and American flights), thus aiming to capture traffic between Europe/North America and Vietnam, with a morning departure from Addis Ababa to Hanoi.

The 5 major markets: Vietnam and Africa (destinations served by ET)

Nov 23-Oct 24

Luanda: 5,794 pax
Cairo: 5,185 pax
Johannesburg: 5,142 pax
Cape Town: 4,008 pax
Lagos: 3,145 pax

Angola, Mozambique, Kenya, Tanzania, Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa are the main African countries with which Vietnam trades (I'm talking about the African countries served by ET, so Algeria and Libya are not included). Angola has a large Vietnamese diaspora (more than 10,000 people https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnamese-en ... 288521.vnp).

However, Vietnam has supported some African independence movements, directly (the Angolan War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angola%E2 ... _relations) or through various organizations (the Group of 77 or the Non-Aligned Movement). The Vietnamese Communist Party maintains ties with certain African parties (the ANC in South Africa, the RPF in Rwanda, FRELIMO in Mozambique, etc.). https://www.google.com/search?q=vietnam ... s-wiz-serp

These ties are very long-standing, even though the volume of trade is low compared to Africa with India, China, or the United Arab Emirates.

Ethiopian returns to Abu Dhabi.

Abu Dhabi is not the most popular destination in terms of point-to-point demand for Africa. Apart from Cairo (over 500,000 passengers) and Johannesburg (12,000 passengers), no Ethiopian destination exceeds 7,000 passengers. The two largest Emirati markets in Africa are Dubai (Addis Ababa, Cairo, Accra, Nairobi, and Entebbe have between 859,000 and 100,000 passengers per year) and Sharjah (Nairobi and Entebbe have over 100,000 passengers point-to-point).

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250317-etns25auh

[rwandan-flyer]

Dakar Airport eyes new routes to Montreal, Luanda and Geneva. New routes to some secondaries airports in Morroco could start by the end of year : Marrakech Dakar or Fes Dakar. Wants more flights to London and the return of RwandAir which has closed its routes Cotonou Dakar (extansion of its Kigali Cotonou route) during the covid.

It will be interesting which airline can fly btw Geneva and Dakar.

EasyJet UK has launched flights to Sub-Saharan Africa from Manchester and London, and EasyJet Europe from Lisbon and Porto.
Transavia offers flights from France to Senegal.
Vueling lands in Cape Verde and Senegal.

But would EasyJet Switzerland be interested in Geneva? They have the aircraft type (A320Neo), but would it be viable for them?

There is Swiss, but its plan to fly to Africa with the A321LR (which logically were planned from Zurich) no longer seems to be on the cards.

There are Edelweiss and Chair Airlines


CEO: SWISS considering Airbus A321neoLR for Africa routes https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... ica-routes (2017)

Others importants points

Between 2018 and the end of 2023, it contributed 380 million euros (impact of DSS airport to Senegal's economy)

The beginnings are always difficult; you have to get to know each other. But we're moving forward well; we're discussing the relaxation of the protective measures that the government is granting to Air Senegal. (relations with the Gov of Senegal)

The effects of Air Senegal's policy were immediately visible: between August and September 2024, there was a 10% drop in passenger traffic.

Passenger traffic growth was 0% in 2024. In 2025 and beyond, it would need to be between 6% and 10% to reach 5 million passengers in ten years, half of the target.For freight, our target of 50,000 tonnes within five years is easier to achieve.

The passenger terminal expansion has been postponed due to declining passenger numbers. The project is almost ready, but is facing financing issues. It is expected to be completed in 2027 or early 2028. The construction of a new cargo terminal is more urgent. It will be completed in 2027.



Article from Jeune Afrique



Askin Demir (LAS): "Air Senegal's decline will shift our objectives somewhat"

THE ECONOMIC INTERVIEW – Relations with the national airline and the new Senegalese government, Blaise Diagne's results, complementarity and rivalry with other African hubs... Interview with the CEO of LAS, the company that manages Dakar airport.

[....]

How does the airport plan to attract new airlines?

In 2024, Transavia opened a Lille-Dakar and a Bordeaux-Dakar route, both a first. ITA, which succeeded Alitalia, opened a Rome-Dakar route. United Airlines is expected to open a Washington-Dakar route in 2025. We are currently in discussions with Canadian carriers interested in creating a Montreal-Dakar route, as well as with airlines likely to offer connections to Geneva or London (we have been operating at Gatwick since 2024, but we would like to expand our traffic). We are also hoping for the return of Rwanda—a destination we lost during the Covid-19 pandemic—and have initiated talks with Angolan airlines to create routes between Dakar and Angola.

https://www-jeuneafrique-com.translate. ... r_pto=wapp

[rwandan-flyer]

Gulf Air resumes flights to Nairobi from 2nd June 2025, with 5 flights a week using an A320Neo : https://www.traveldailynews.com/aviatio ... obi-kenya/

East Africa is a historic market for Gulf Air with plenty destinations in 80s and 90s. In 2000s, they ended the biggest part of their destinations. In 2010s, they resumed flights to Nairobi, Entebbe and Addis Ababa. Juba in South Sudan was in the plans (https://www.timesaerospace.aero/news/ro ... e-and-juba), but no Gulf Air aircraft has landed at Juba.

It will be interesting what will be the strategy for Gulf Air in East Africa. Back to some former destinations, open new routes or keeps only Nairobi ?

I have already said few months ago but i m still wondering if capacites btw East African and Middle East are now not higher than btw East Africa and Europe, in terms of routes (hard about the number of pax because we can't find open source data). Of course some of these airlines are there since longtime and all are not targetting point to point btw East Africa and Middle East. However point to point is quite high on some routes.

For all these countries some markets in Middle East are among the top 5 biggest point to point market outside Europe ahead some Europeans destinations or North Americans destinations

I could add Egytpair as arabic airline which has a huge presence in East Africa (Kenya, Eritrea, Somalia, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Djibouti, South Sudan, Rwanda)

If i m right. I didn't include Sudan because of the conflict.

Kenya :

Kenya Airways
Etihad
Qatar Airways
SalamAir (Oman)
Air Arabia
Emirates
FlyDaubai (Mombasa)
Saudia

Ethiopia :

Ethiopian Airlines
Jazeera Airways (Kuwait)
Air Arabia
FlyNas
Emirates
Qatar Airways
Yemenia
Saudia
Etihad Airways (resumes flights this year following JV with Ethiopian https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-et ... a-ethiopia)

Tanzania :

Air Tanzania
Qatar Airways
FlyDubai
Emirates
Omanair

Somalia (i include Somaliland) :

Daallo Airlines
Jubba Airways
Air Arabia
FlyDubai
Qatar Airways
Salamair (announced but bookings not yet opened https://www.ftlsomalia.com/omans-salama ... uary-2025/)

Djibouti :

Air Djibouti
FlyNas
FlyDubai
Yemenia
Qatar Airways
Jubba Airways


Uganda :

FlyNas
Emirates
Air Arabia
FlyDubai
Qatar Airways
Uganda Airlines


Seychelles

Air Seychelles (to resume flights to Abu Dhabi after the departure of Etihad)
Emirates
Qatar Airways


Eritrea

FlyNas
FlyDubai

South Sudan

FlyDubai
Qatar Airways (announced but bookings not yet opened https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... ogged_in=1)


Rwanda

RwandAir
Qatar Airways (resumes from May 2025)
SalamAir (announced but bookings not yet opened https://www.timesaerospace.aero/feature ... tting-edge)

[freakyboy2021]

UGANDA airlines will launch EBB-LGW from 18May25, 4 times per week.

[sn26567]

UGANDA airlines will launch EBB-LGW from 18May25, 4 times per week.

Full story reported yesterday on our main page: https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/ugan ... -a330-800/

[rwandan-flyer]

It seems that Ethiopian has finaly green lights from Kenya to add a 3rd daily flight to Nairobi ? 1 flight with a B777-300ER and 2 others with B737. i thought that Ethiopian Airlines used its B777 in Africa mainly to:

Lagos (B777-300ER)
Cairo (B777-200LR)
Entebbe (B777-200LR)

Surprised that they can fill B777-300ER with the strong competition in Kenya mainly from Middle East carriers : Saudia weekly service with A330, Emirates 2 flights a day with B777-300ER and Qatar Airways 2 flights a day with a mix B777-300ER / A350-900 / 1000

And it seems that Ethiopian will add a 2nd fdaily flight to Bujumbura (Burundi). But no return flight & the flight number is 4 digits. They use also this on one of 4 daily flight between Entebbe and Addis Ababa and the flight is operated by a Dash. In 2010s ET used to send their Dash to East Africa (seen pix below)

I remember that in 2023 or in 2024, ET planned to add red eye flight to Bujumbura, but they have closed bookings and they kept the daily service.

However about NBO ADD and BJM ADD i can't find the additional flights on the Ethiopian website. Still 2 flights a day for NBO ADD et 1 flight a day for BJM ADD.

An Ethiopian Dash at Kigali in 2014 that i seen from a Qatar Airways A320 (Paris Cdg Doha Kigali)

[rwandan-flyer]

Kenya Airways NS25 International Service Changes – 23MAR25

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250325-kqns25int

The airline will suspend its Mombasa Dubai route. They will reduce flights to Antananarivo (strong competition from Emirates ?), Dakar, Douala, Entebbe (but still the destination with highest frequencies outside Domestic), Johannesburg or Bangkok to name a few.

The airline will add more flights to Dar es Salaam (25 to 28 flights per week), Kigali (21 to 23 flights per week) or Dubai (11 to 14 flights per week).

From Nairobi, Entebbe (Uganda Airlines & Kenya Airways), Dar Es Salaam (Air Tanzania, Kenya Airways and Precision Air) and Kigali (RwandAir and Kenya Airways) are big point to point market with hundreds pax flying every day on these routes. Do you think that there is a chance to see a Kenyan regional airline start to serve these cities from Nairobi ?

I m takling about with Skyward Express or Safarilink Aviation which operate mainly from Wilson the second airport in Nairobi and thus close to the city center. Targeting corporate, NGO staff and tourists which make an East Africa tour.

In the past, there have been attempts with Fly540 (Bujumbura via Mwanza) and African Express Airways (Entebbe), but it was over 10 years ago. Market is probably bigger now. I don't include JamboJet to Kigali and Entebbe because it's a part of Kenya Airways. and covid hit hard.


------------------------------------------------------------

Reunion Airport (French Overseas Dept) is looking for to be linked to an East African hub. I guess either Ethiopian or Kenya Airways. Reunion has big demand with Paris, but also with Marseille (served non stop by Corsair), with Bangkok (already served by Air Austral) and a decent demand with India. Air Austral ended its flight to Chennai in 2023 due regulatory woes (https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/125947 ... atory-woes)

Ethiopian ?

Marseille and Paris are served by Ethiopian. Ethiopian has a big network in India and serves Bangkok.

Kenya Airways ?

There is also strong demand between some major French cities such as Nice and Lyon (the largest point-to-point market after Paris) and Réunion. Amsterdam and Geneva are among the other "big" markets in Europe. All these cities are connected to Paris-Charles de Gaulle by Air France. Kenya Airways could tap into these markets via CDG through its partner SkyTeam. In addition, Kenya Airways and Air Austral have codeshare agreements. Air Austral serves Paris-Charles de Gaulle. Kenya Airways also serves another French overseas department: Mayotte.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... odesharing


La Réunion seeks new unions

Reunion Roland Garros airport is looking to new routes in India and East Africa as it seeks to reach its target of three million passengers by 2030.

https://www.timesaerospace.aero/news/ai ... new-unions

Edit

Well few chances that it happens

Reunion has big demand with Paris, but also with Marseille (served non stop by Air Austral)

The problem though is that a non-EU carrier is not permitted to sell tickets between Reunion and Paris/Marseille via their hub due to cabotage laws.

[rwandan-flyer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27Tgars6YuQ&t=295s

Welcome to the March edition of the AviaDev Insight Africa Connectivity update for 2025, hosted by Jon Howell, CEO and Founder of AviaDev Africa.

This month's guests are:

Sean Mendis, Aviation Consultant.

Behramjee Ghadially, Aviation Consultant.

Topics this month include:

Recap and feedback on Uganda Airlines' new LGW (London Gatwick) route

Kenya Airways report a $42 million profit and continues to tweak its schedules and navigate operational challenges

Ethiopian Airlines and Etihad Partnership. Who stands to gain the most and what's behind it?

Deep Dive Topic 1: Understanding the importance and changing dynamic of the China market to Ethiopian Airlines' network.

Deep Dive Topic 2: US-South Africa schedule changes as Delta and United lean in to Cape Town and away from Johannesburg

Fastjet to launch Harare-Lusaka from 9th April

Airlink to boost Nairobi to 10 x week and Lusaka to 10x day

Singapore Airlines increasing Johannesburg to 10x week in April and 12x from June

Gulf Air to return to Nairobi on 2nd June after a 13 year hiatus

Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the episode, please subscribe and share it with someone from your network who may benefit from listening.

[rwandan-flyer]

Another great podcast thanks Jon, Sean and Berhamjee


Is Air Tanzania planning to relaunch three historic destinations? https://www.airtanzania.co.tz/

I just saw that Muscat (Oman), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), and Kigali (Rwanda) appear in the airline's website search engine. I don't know if these are future codeshare destinations or interline agreement destinations (like for India or South Africa). Cairo also appears. But I'll focus on the historic destinations.

Reopenings? Yes, because ADD, MCT, and KGL were among Air Tanzania's first destinations shortly after its creation in the late 1970s following the dissolution of East African Airways (which became Uganda Airlines ver. 1, Air Tanzania, and Kenya Airways). Like here in 1979 https://www.timetableimages.com/ttimage ... e/tc79.htm

These three destinations were served until the early 2000s (May 2005 KGL MCT and ADD timetables appear but no flights https://www.timetableimages.com/i-t/tanzani7.jpg), when Air Tanzania went in bade shape. The routes were supposed to resume in the mid-2000s with the support of South African Airways**, which wanted to create a "golden triangle" hub in Dar Es Salaam (https://www.newvision.co.ug/news/1071046/saa-tz-airline). The three destinations never reopened.

**At this time (late 1990s - early 2000s) South African Airways was multiplying its projects in Africa: SA Alliance Air (Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda), Air Cemac (an Air Afrique based in Central Africa), Gabon International Airlines, and Air Tanzania. Finally, 15 years later, it's Ethiopian, with some failures but also successes (Chadia, Malawian, Ethiopian Airlines Mozambique, Zambia Airlines, Asky, Air Congo).

Back to Air Tanzania, things have changed. Oman Air serves Dar Es Salaam, Rwanda Air serves Kigali once a day (sometimes twice a day), and Ethiopian Airlines serves Dar Es Salaam three times a day. There is good point-to-point demand. Air Tanzania will surely probably to rely on its hub (if these routes resume).

Muscat: I suppose it will mainly target Nairobi, Zanzibar, Entebbe, and Kigali.

Addis Ababa: I suppose it will mainly be Nairobi, Entebbe, and Kigali, which have good point-to-point demand. Maybe i should add Mumbai and Guangzhou

Kigali: probably the most interesting (no, I'm not saying that because I'm native Rwandan ). Nairobi, Entebbe, and Dubai are the three major markets for Kigali. We average over 120 passengers per day (and even more for NBO and EBB) for all three destinations. There are also Johannesburg, Mumbai, and Guangzhou. Then there is a small demand in the Tanzanian domestic market. Mwanza and Kilimanjaro (formerly served by Air Tanzania from Kigali) are still connected to Kigali (Auric Air, Coastal Aviation, and RwandAir). Admittedly, we sometimes use Cessna Caravans, and we don't see huge volumes. Mwanza is mostly tourists, and Kilimanjaro (tourists and NGOs working for the UN). The International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals has more or less taken over from the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda.

[rwandan-flyer]

Some Air France and Corsair flights to West and Central Africa (for AF) no longer fly over Algeria. The flights detour over Morocco before flying over Mali. There is no official reason, but this may be due to tensions between Algeria and Mali.

Both countries recalled their ambassadors and closed their airspace after the destruction of a Malian drone by neighboring Algeria at the end of March. No Malian aircraft can land or fly over Algeria. No Algerian aircraft can land or fly over Mali.

For the moment, only Air France is making this detour. But the crisis seems to be spreading to Burkina Faso and Niger, which have also recalled their ambassadors from Algeria. https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/ ... _3212.html (translation not working with the link)

No many coverage about this crisis right now, but if things worsen, the consequences could be dire.


Algeria-Mali: Air, Energy... The Economic Consequences of an Unprecedented Crisis

After recalling their ambassadors and closing their respective airspace, Algiers and Bamako have entered a climate of tension whose economic impact has not spared their Nigerien neighbor.

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1676832/ec ... precedent/ (translation not working with the link)

[lumumba]

Some Air France and Corsair flights to West and Central Africa (for AF) no longer fly over Algeria. The flights detour over Morocco before flying over Mali. There is no official reason, but this may be due to tensions between Algeria and Mali.

Both countries recalled their ambassadors and closed their airspace after the destruction of a Malian drone by neighboring Algeria at the end of March. No Malian aircraft can land or fly over Algeria. No Algerian aircraft can land or fly over Mali.

For the moment, only Air France is making this detour. But the crisis seems to be spreading to Burkina Faso and Niger, which have also recalled their ambassadors from Algeria. https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/ ... _3212.html (translation not working with the link)

No many coverage about this crisis right now, but if things worsen, the consequences could be dire.


Algeria-Mali: Air, Energy... The Economic Consequences of an Unprecedented Crisis

After recalling their ambassadors and closing their respective airspace, Algiers and Bamako have entered a climate of tension whose economic impact has not spared their Nigerien neighbor.

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1676832/ec ... precedent/ (translation not working with the link)

Turkish Airlines don't fly over Algeria too!

[JOVAN2]

Some Air France and Corsair flights to West and Central Africa (for AF) no longer fly over Algeria. The flights detour over Morocco before flying over Mali. There is no official reason, but this may be due to tensions between Algeria and Mali.

Both countries recalled their ambassadors and closed their airspace after the destruction of a Malian drone by neighboring Algeria at the end of March. No Malian aircraft can land or fly over Algeria. No Algerian aircraft can land or fly over Mali.

For the moment, only Air France is making this detour. But the crisis seems to be spreading to Burkina Faso and Niger, which have also recalled their ambassadors from Algeria. https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/ ... _3212.html (translation not working with the link)

No many coverage about this crisis right now, but if things worsen, the consequences could be dire.


Algeria-Mali: Air, Energy... The Economic Consequences of an Unprecedented Crisis

After recalling their ambassadors and closing their respective airspace, Algiers and Bamako have entered a climate of tension whose economic impact has not spared their Nigerien neighbor.

https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1676832/ec ... precedent/ (translation not working with the link)

Turkish Airlines don't fly over Algeria too!

up

How are SN.flights to Kigali doing, after Kagame
Breaking relations with Belgium ?
Still daily…non-stop ,.full flights ??

[rwandan-flyer]

Welcome to the April edition of the AviaDev Insight Africa Connectivity update for 2025, hosted by Jon Howell, CEO and Founder of AviaDev Africa. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2KIqdtamOM

This month's guests are:

Sean Mendis, Aviation Consultant.

Behramjee Ghadially, Aviation Consultant.

Topics covered this month:

Ethiopian Airlines to launch to Sharjah 4 x week and go double daily to Lagos from July.

Qantas is rumoured to be launching Perth-Johannesburg in December 3 x week

Etihad to increase flights from Nairobi to double daily in December

Deep dive into the London-Africa dynamic and how London Gatwick has improved it's share of African traffic

Air Sierra Leone launching to London Gatwick from Freetown in June with one of our commentators heavily involved (spoiler alert it's Sean Meandis which has took part into the project)

Condor expanding services to Cape Town and Johannesburg from November

Africa World Airlines launching flights to Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso from 3 June

Kenya Airways summer schedule changes and west Africa operation

[Homo Aeroportus]

Greetings from Addis, on my way back from Arusha where the 73rd ACI-Africa Board Meeting and Conferences took place as well as our Technical Committees.
Jon was there but if a podcast is always interesting, the reality remains that the SAATM is still to produce results.
The Single African Air Transport Market has been proclaimed, advocated, requested, promised for decades. Now 34 countries have signed it but the reality is that when I flew via ADD last week, a large number of french-speaaking passengers from West Afica boarded in BRU for ADD.
Some of my colleagues will fly back to DSS via IST ! JRO-IST is +7h in a 73. I passed on that option.
Huge potential for the continent but political will is still needed. Traffic rights, visas...

H.A.

PS : Pretty nice platform this HTKJ and flying near the almost 6000m-high mount Kilimanjaro is outstanding.