Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2025

[sn26567]

Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2019-2023
Air Transport in Africa Outlook - 2024

[freakyboy2021]

AIr tanzania operates its first ever B767-300F freighter between Dar es Salaam and Guangzhou, China via Sharjah, UAE on 10JAN. The schedule is every once per week.

[rwandan-flyer]

Kenya Airways will resume flights to Angola, from March 2025

https://atta.travel/resource/kenya-and- ... -link.html


It seems that a new Burundi airline will start flights in less 1 month :

Fly Burundi. They have already a website with offices in Burundi and Kenya. https://www.flyburundi.com/

According to CH Aviation, FlyBurundi made a requesto to get an AOC from Burundi Gov in late Oct24

Posted on Sept24 on their FB Page https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php? ... 9553357344

[rwandan-flyer]

Interesting, after Ghana Turkish Airlines will add more flights (up to 2 flights a day) to another Sub-Saharan country. This time it will be Tanzania :

From June 2025

Kilimanjaro International Airport – from four to 14 weekly flights (twice daily).
Zanzibar – increasing from nine to 14 weekly flights (twice daily).
Dar es Salaam – rising from seven to 10 weekly flights.

https://www.tourismupdate.co.za/article ... s-tanzania

In sept24, Turkish Airlines said that about East Africa:

Listed global aviation firm Turkish Airlines is upbeat on the growth of it’s East African route with Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda being among the key growth drivers. According to the airline, tourism, sporting events and conferencing have seen air travel into the region soar. Speaking on the sidelines

I wouldn't be surprised if the airline adds more flights to these countries with daytime departures from IST in the early afternoon. TK has some overnight stops in Europe and therefore with departures at 7am and 8am from London, Paris, Munich, Frankfurt or Brussels (some European flights of Turkish Airlines are operated in codeshare with RwandAir and Turkish has its IATA code on part of RwandAir's network). Or with an early night departure from Istanbul between 01am and 02am to catch late evening flights from Europe.

Turkish's flights to Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda depart from IST around 07h p.m

https://x.com/cnbcafrica/status/1830606 ... 26369?mx=2

[rwandan-flyer]

Ethiopian soon in Central Asia?

Well, I don't think that there is a market, between Central Asia and Africa. I have seen that a few thousand pax (point to point market) between Bishkek and Egypt. Then a big demand with the Middle East, Turkey.

In this region, Kazakhstan has started to open up to Africa (Togo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rep of Congo, Nigeria, South Africa or Rwanda) with investment projects, meetings between ministers or presidents, free visa rules. I know that there are some charter flights between Kazakhstan and Egypt and Kazakhstan and the Seychelles. But the same thing big demand with the Middle East and Turkey. Ethiopian is rather well positioned.

In the west we have Azerbaijan which is trying to develop important links with Africa.



Kazakhstan and Ethiopia intend to cooperate in the field of air transport

https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/mf ... 97?lang=en


Ethiopia wants to open direct flights from Addis Ababa to Bishkek

Ethiopia has expressed interest in opening direct flights with Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. This information was made public following the visit of Deputy Foreign Minister Asein Isaev to Ethiopia.

https://www.akchabar.kg/en/news/efiopiy ... tzumhpvfmw


However,i don't think that direcy flights will happen soon (Turkish Airlines and Middle Eastern airline already tap into the little demand), but it will be interesting to see the developments in the coming years. The Caucasus and Central Asia are 2 regions without a presence in Africa.

[rwandan-flyer]

Ethiopian will operate up to 4 flights a day to Entebbe from 17Jun25 !!. It becames the most served route in Africa (outside Ethiopian network). https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250130-etns25af

Note since few months, Air Arabia serves Entebbe from Sharjah up to 2 times a day instead of 1 flight a day. During the peak period, Qatar Airways operates up to 2 flights a day, instead of 1 flight a day. Trafic at Entebbe is really growing. I guess helped by a big demand from Asia.

[rwandan-flyer]

Kenya Airways and Air India have signed a code share agreement https://www.airwaysmag.com/new-post/air ... artnership. Air India will also add a 4th weekly flight between Nairobi and Delhi https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/250128-ains25int

Note also that Air India has a code share agreement with Ethiopian


Air Tanzania Facebook page announces a new route between Dar Es Salaam and Lagos. No info about the date of the 1st flight and the number of flights. Competition starts to be stiff on Lagos East Africa. I know East African airlines play on the connecting with Nigierian on various markets : Middle East / India / East of Asia. And Johannesburg ?

Ethiopian and RwandAir have also pax flying between Europe and Nigeria. I think it's the same for Kenya Airways ?

However, i wonder if airlnes can tap into the point to point market ?

Uganda Airlines
Air Tanzania
RwandAir
Kenya Airways
Ethiopian Airlines


https://servimg.com/view/11287103/2849

Last year, the former Airlink CEO said

One of the hopes for the partnership was that Airlink would be able to bulk-up its existing routes and up-gauge to single-aisle narrow-body airliners, such as the Airbus A320 family or Boeing 737s. https://www.timesaerospace.aero/feature ... -in-africa

Airlink (South Africa) has applied for new services to West Africa. If the airline decides to open, i wonder if it won't be the very first commercial services between Cape Town and West Africa.

Airlink Properties Limited t/a Airlink. (B) #3 Greenstone Hill Office Park, Emerald Boulevard,
Greenstone Hill, Modderfontein, 1609. (C) Class I; I/S073. (D) Type S1. Category A1.

(E)
Olivier Tambo International Airport, Johannesburg, South Africa (JNB) – Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam
International Airport, Port Louis, Mauritius (MRU) – 7 weekly frequencies.

Olivier Tambo International Airport, Johannesburg, South Africa (JNB) – N’djili Airport, Kinshasa, Democratic
Republic of the Congo (FIH) – 7 weekly frequencies.

Olivier Tambo International Airport, Johannesburg, South Africa (JNB) – Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport, Harare, Zimbabwe
(HRE) – unlimited frequencies.

Cape Town International Airport, Cape Town, South Africa (CPT) - Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos, Nigeria (LOS) – 7 weekly frequencies.

Cape Town International Airport, Cape Town, South Africa (CPT) - Kotoka International Airport, Accra, Ghana
(ACC) – 7 weekly frequencies

Lift has applied for new services to, Mauritus, Zimbabwe and Tanzania. If the airline decides to open the 2 routes, it will be its first destinations outside South Africa

Global Aviation Operations (Pty) Ltd.(B) Hangar 2, Northern Perimeter Road, Precinct 3, OR
Tambo International Airport, Kempton Park (C) Class I, (D) Type S1 & S2.

(E) Category A1& A2. (F)

ZS-GAC, ZS-GAL, ZS-GAS, ZS-GAR, ZS-GAO (
G) JHB-Harare- Johannesburg: Johannesburg-

Mauritius- Johannesburg:

Johannesburg- Zanzibar- Johannesburg. (H) 4 Frequencies per week:
Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday. 3 frequencies: Tuesday, Thursday & Saturday. (G)

https://www.gov.za/documents/notices/ai ... mestic-air

[rwandan-flyer]

The 1st podcast of 2025. They talk about Brussels Airlines and its expansion into Africa. A little teasing from our experts. They are quite optimistics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K29iSfsO9c8

One expert says that with more A330s coming, SN could serve some leisures destinations in East Africa (Zanzibar, Mombasa, Seychelles) in Winter when they operate less flights to North America. One expoert is not agree about to start flights to Seychelles

United Airlines and Air Canada play a big role to feed SN flights to Africa. In Europe, France is the top market for feeding SN flights to Africa

Brussels City has good point to point demand on some SN destionations in Africa (Dakar, Kinshasa, Douala or Kigali). It helps the airline to have a good load factor.

The arrival of more A330s will help the airline to split some services and add more flights on some destinations.

For them, ITA won't be a competitor in Africa, with the A321LR they will focus on some niche markets. Many of them are not served by SN: Zanzibar, Mombasa, Kilimandjaro or Lagos. Only Abidjan is served by SN.

Welcome to the first edition of the AviaDev Insight Africa Connectivity update for 2025, hosted by Jon Howell, CEO and Founder of AviaDev Africa.

This month's guests are: Sean Mendis, Aviation Consultant.

Behramjee Ghadially, Aviation Consultant.

In this bumper episode, we cover the following stories:

Ethiopian Airlines to launch Hyderabad 3 x week from June

SAA opening a daily flight to Dar-Es-Salaam on 20th January

Air Sierra Leone launching operations with Freetown-Lagos using Embraer ERJ 145

British Airways increasing service to Nairobi in Summer 2025 and the impact on Kenya Airways and Uganda Airlines' ambitions in this market

Lufthansa Group deep dive: Brussels Airlines increasing its long haul fleet and sub-Saharan expansion to 56 weekly flights.

Discover to launch Seychelles 2 x week from October 2025

ITA joining the Lufthansa Group and what this means for African connectivity

Air Arabia launching service to Addis Ababa from Sharjah

Turkish Airlines' expansion into Tanzania

Emirates increasing frequencies to Madagascar

Latest on the South African market and ownership ruling

If you enjoyed this conversation, please subscribe to the podcast to never miss another episode and share this episode with someone in your network who would benefit from listening.

[rwandan-flyer]

More competitions for Brussels Airlines for its Kinshasa route ?

Someone airliners.net has just posted this article about futur routes of Emirates that could be started the next summer.

It seems that Kinshasa and Brazzaville are finally on the map. I hoped to see Kigali tagged via Entebbe. FlyDubai served Kigali in mid 2010s, but they have quickly closed their flights (demande was not very high at this period). It's also probably too soon in terms of market demand to get good loads on the Emirates B777-300ER. I don't know if EK plans to serve some destinations in East Africa with its 298 seater A350.

In the area, we can also think about Libreville or Douala. I remmember that EK planned to serve Bamako in 2010s and some newspapers in Botwsana and Mozambique have also said that Gaborone and Maputo could also potential EK destinations in Africa.

But in this article it said that some routes could be delayed and nothing is confirmed.

The two Chinese routes are among several destinations where Emirates is seeking to expand this year, with a particular focus on Asia, said the people, underscoring increased demand from the continent. The potential new routes include:

Chengdu, China
Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Brazzaville, Republic of Congo
Da Nang, Vietnam
Helsinki, Finland
Siem Reap, Cambodia

Some of the routes have not been finalized and some could be delayed, the people cautioned. Emirates may deploy one of its new Airbus A350 aircraft on the Helsinki route, according to one of the memos.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

In 2011 Emirates made good remarks about their futur routes in Africa

However, given its service map, many areas still need to be covered. “On the one hand, there is a sort of diagonal of instability, countries where we cannot go. On the other, countries like the DRC, where there is not yet a sufficient market between the country and our hub in Dubai. Below 50,000 passengers per year, it is impossible for us to consider creating one,” explains Jean-Luc Grillet.

There is no question of the Emiratis rushing. Opening lines is a long process, lasting two or three years on average, which is done in two stages. First, a line serving several destinations, then, depending on how profitability evolves, a direct link to Dubai. “This will be the case for Lusaka and Harare, with the aim of separating the routes in 2013. Currently, this is also the case for Addis Ababa and Entebbe or Accra and Abidjan. "On this last line, the occupancy rates are already above 90%, it will be necessary to separate the two destinations fairly quickly," assures Jean-Luc Grillet. A route takes five years to reach equilibrium, given the significant investments required.

https://www-jeuneafrique-com.translate. ... r_pto=wapp

[lumumba]

More competitions for Brussels Airlines for its Kinshasa route ?

Quelqu'un sur airliners.net vient de poster cet article sur les futures lignes d'Emirates qui pourraient être lancées l'été prochain. Pas de villes Françaises visiblement.

Il semble que Kinshasa et Brazzaville soient enfin sur la carte. J'espérais voir Kigali taguée via Entebbe. FlyDubai desservait Kigali au milieu des années 2010, mais ils ont rapidement fermé leurs vols (la demande n'était pas très forte à cette période). Il est également probablement trop tôt en termes de demande du marché pour obtenir de bonnes charges sur le B777-300ER d'Emirates. Je ne sais pas si EK prévoit de desservir certaines destinations en Afrique de l'Est avec son A350 de 298 places.

Dans la région, on peut aussi penser à Libreville ou Douala. Je me souviens qu'EK prévoyait de desservir Bamako dans les années 2010 et certains journaux du Botswana et du Mozambique ont également dit que Gaborone et Maputo pourraient également être des destinations potentielles d'EK en Afrique.

Mais dans cet article, il est dit que certaines lignes pourraient être retardées et rien n'est confirmé.

Les deux lignes chinoises font partie des destinations vers lesquelles Emirates cherche à se développer cette année, en mettant l'accent sur l'Asie, ont déclaré les personnes interrogées, soulignant la demande accrue du continent. Les nouvelles lignes potentielles comprennent :

Chengdu, Chine
Kinshasa, République démocratique du Congo
Brazzaville, République du Congo
Da Nang, Vietnam
Helsinki, Finlande
Siem Reap, Cambodge

Certaines des lignes n'ont pas été finalisées et certaines pourraient être retardées, ont averti les personnes interrogées. Emirates pourrait déployer l'un de ses nouveaux appareils Airbus A350 sur la ligne d'Helsinki, selon l'une des notes de service.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... 0aWNsZSIsI mlhdCI6MTc0MDE5OTk3MywiZXhwIjoxNzQwODA0NzczLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTUjhZMVVEV0xVNjgwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJDNEI5QTQyOTU2QjQ0NDlEODQ0QzExMTA4Q0EzOTVCRCJ9.C5U0krxuH9nrAUkIRNlGtetQAUIHU4E3Fx5HGhAXDTk&leadSource=uverify%20wall

En 2011, Emirates avait fait de bonnes remarques sur ses futures lignes en Afrique

Cependant, compte tenu de sa carte de desserte, de nombreuses zones restent encore à couvrir. « D’un côté, il y a une sorte de diagonale d’instabilité, des pays où l’on ne peut pas aller. De l’autre, des pays comme la RDC, où il n’existe pas encore de marché suffisant entre le pays et notre hub de Dubaï. En dessous de 50 000 passagers par an, il nous est impossible d’envisager d’en créer un », explique Jean-Luc Grillet.

Pas question pour les Emiratis de se précipiter. L’ouverture de lignes est un processus long, de deux ou trois ans en moyenne, qui se fait en deux étapes. D’abord une ligne desservant plusieurs destinations, puis, en fonction de l’évolution de la rentabilité, une liaison directe vers Dubaï. « Ce sera le cas pour Lusaka et Harare, avec l’objectif de séparer les lignes en 2013. Actuellement, c’est aussi le cas pour Addis-Abeba et Entebbe ou Accra et Abidjan. » « Sur cette dernière ligne, les taux d’occupation sont déjà supérieurs à 90 %, il faudra séparer les deux destinations assez rapidement », assure Jean-Luc Grillet. Une ligne met cinq ans à atteindre l'équilibre, compte tenu des investissements importants nécessaires.

https://www-jeuneafrique-com.translate. ... r_pto=wapp

Emirates is not really competition for Brussels Airlines too much East they are more focused on Asian markets.

[rwandan-flyer]

Yes and no, Africans can make often detour to fly between and Africa and others parts in the world. Like Nigerians do with Kenya Airways, Ethiopian, RwandAir to fly between Europe and Nigeria.

Even if it's not the same market, but EK flights to Madagascar have recorded a big demand in deed with Asia, but also with Europe

Over the past few months, the airline has experienced strong demand from the UAE, Sri Lanka, France, UK, mainland China, Japan, Spain, and Italy to Madagascar. From Madagascar, travellers have mainly ventured to Dubai, the hub city of Emirates, in addition to Seychelles, France, India, Sri Lanka, Italy and Japan.

https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... el-demand/

We shouldn't underestimate the Gulf airlines although you are right they target first of all Asia Africa demand.

[lumumba]

Yes and no, Africans can make often detour to fly between and Africa and others parts in the world. Like Nigerians do with Kenya Airways, Ethiopian, RwandAir to fly between Europe and Nigeria.

Even if it's not the same market, but EK flights to Madagascar have recorded a big demand in deed with Asia, but also with Europe

Over the past few months, the airline has experienced strong demand from the UAE, Sri Lanka, France, UK, mainland China, Japan, Spain, and Italy to Madagascar. From Madagascar, travellers have mainly ventured to Dubai, the hub city of Emirates, in addition to Seychelles, France, India, Sri Lanka, Italy and Japan.

https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... el-demand/

We shouldn't underestimate the Gulf airlines although you are right they target first of all Asia Africa demand.

But Madagascar is already east not a detour at all but for ex Luanda Lisbon(40% of the market here) will never go to Emirates or Luanda New York either.

[rwandan-flyer]

When EK started to serve Luanda daily iso weekly service, Lisbon, New York, Houston and London were among the most popular destinations outside Asia. I don't have post covid data

The flight arrival timings in Dubai are scheduled to ensure passengers from Angola enjoy a shorter transit time when connecting to Emirates flights to popular destinations such as New York, Houston, London, Beirut, Seoul, Taipei, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Mumbai, Delhi and Sydney, Lisbon and others.

https://www.globalbrandsmagazine.com/em ... a-service/

Same thing Nairobi when they added the 3rd daily flight, in 2017 (old figures i know). Since Covid they are back with 2 daily service.

Only around one in five of these passengers are ending their flights in Dubai, with 77.4 per cent of passengers connecting on to another destination. The largest flows this past year have been to London Heathrow (12,300 passengers), New York (8,500 passengers), Beijing (5,500 passengers), Delhi (5,100 passengers), Ahmedabad (4,400 passengers), Mumbai (4,400 passengers) and Washington (4,300 passengers).

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... t-transfer

However about Nairobi and Luanda i don't t think there were big changements about the most popular destinations via Dubai.

FIH has a big demand for Dubai, and decent demand for Mumbai, Guangzhou and Beirut with an average of 271 pax flying daily between BOM, CAN, DXB, BEY and FIH. It quite good, but however, Emirates will also need Europe. The point to point demand btw Brussels and Kinshasa is highe than the top 5 Asian markets for Kinshasa. Don't forget that you have to add Turkish Airlines, Ethiopian, Kenya Airways and Qatar which have strong capacites to Asia.

Nov 23 Oct 24

Top 5 Asian Markets for Kinshasa :

Dubai : 56 000 pax
Mumbai : 18 600 pax
Beirut : 14 000 pax
Guangzhou : 10 600 pax
Delhi : 4 500 pax

Top 5 European markets for Kinshasa :

Brussels : 114 000 pax
Paris Cdg : 91 000 pax
Geneva : 14 000 pax
London Heathrow : 13 500 pax
Madrid : 5 700 pax

Top 5 North America markets for Kinshasa :

Montreal : 14 500 pax
Washington : 8 900 pax
JFK : 6 800 pax
Chicago : 4 800 pax
Dallas : 4 200 pax

[freakyboy2021]

Nov 23 Oct 24

Top 5 Asian Markets for Kinshasa :

Dubai : 56 000 pax
Mumbai : 18 600 pax
Beirut : 14 000 pax
Guangzhou : 10 600 pax
Delhi : 4 500 pax

Top 5 European markets for Kinshasa :

Brussels : 114 000 pax
Paris Cdg : 91 000 pax
Geneva : 14 000 pax
London Heathrow : 13 500 pax
Madrid : 5 700 pax

Top 5 North America markets for Kinshasa :

Montreal : 14 500 pax
Washington : 8 900 pax
JFK : 6 800 pax
Chicago : 4 800 pax
Dallas : 4 200 pax


very good info, May I ask when I could collect such data ?

[freakyboy2021]

Nov 23 Oct 24

Top 5 Asian Markets for Kinshasa :

Dubai : 56 000 pax
Mumbai : 18 600 pax
Beirut : 14 000 pax
Guangzhou : 10 600 pax
Delhi : 4 500 pax

Top 5 European markets for Kinshasa :

Brussels : 114 000 pax
Paris Cdg : 91 000 pax
Geneva : 14 000 pax
London Heathrow : 13 500 pax
Madrid : 5 700 pax

Top 5 North America markets for Kinshasa :

Montreal : 14 500 pax
Washington : 8 900 pax
JFK : 6 800 pax
Chicago : 4 800 pax
Dallas : 4 200 pax

very good info, may I ask where to collect such data ?

[rwandan-flyer]

I can't give the source, sorry.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A discussion on Airliners.Net that picks up a tweet says that Delta Airlines could announce a line opening to Africa this week. https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... &t=1500259

Well it's pretty unclear. He says opening a long-haul route. Then he probably specifies that it would be an Atlanta Africa route.

The only certainty is that it won't be Southern Africa. So only in East, West and North Africa. I don't believe in Central Africa, demand is too low.
The logic for some would be the opening of a Nairobi Atlanta line and that Delta takes advantage of the SkyTeam hub in Nairobi to offer connections. And that Delta's hub can tapi into inbound trafic from East Africa, but also Southern and Central Africa.

But it still seems complicated to me. Unlike New York, Houston or Washington, ATL does not have a large point-to-point demand on Africa.

Atlanta Addis Ababa is one of Ethiopian's least efficient routes in North America.

In the ranking from high yield to low yield : Wahsington, Toronto, Chicago, New York JFK, Atlanta and New York Newark

The biggest market for Altanta is Lagos (38,700 pax point-to-point), but DL already lands there. Johannesburg, Cape Town (JNB and CPT azre served by DL from Atlanta) and Nairobi are at the same level (between 20,000 and 20 500 pax per year).

Brussels Atlanta : 18 015 pax (Nov 23 to Oct 24)

The only real argument for Delta will be to rely on its hub in ATL and that of Kenya Airways in Nairobi.

Average load factor below 70% is pretty low, but you also need to know the yield.

While I don't have the exact numbers for December 2024, in general ET's yields to Atlanta are the second lowest (behind only EWR) in its North Atlantic network.

The best yields tend to be IAD followed by YYZ, ORD, JFK, ATL, and EWR in that order (in most markets). https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p24622177

[rwandan-flyer]

No Nairobi or Monrovia.

It will be Accra Atlanta daily for next winter (seasonal)
Atlanta Marrakech, 3 weekly next winter

Quite impressive for Morocco in a few years, they had Air Transat, Air Canada, United Airlines and Delta. In addition to the development of RAM on the United States.

https://news.delta.com/marrakech-me-if- ... tober-2025

United Airlines which will open Dakar this year and Air Canada which targets West Africa. The point-to-point market between Toronto and Accra (39 765 pax point-to-point) and Toronto and Lagos (60 907 pax point-to-point) is high.

Quite sad to see African airlines lagging, however North American airlines are investing in Africa.

Note that the development of North American airlines (this does not only apply to Air Canada, here it was an example in the context of Air Canada) could surely be more important in Africa

One Route To Sub-Saharan Africa: Expert Says Canada Is Anticompetitive

Air Canada, and by extension the Canadian government, seem to be content to deny travelers access to non-stop flights. Indeed, Air Canada obtains a share of transatlantic revenues when it stops in Europe thanks to its Star Alliance joint venture, which is immune to antitrust laws. This is a perfect example of anti-competitive activity sanctioned by the government to the detriment of the consumer.https://simpleflying.com/canada-route-s ... mpetitive/

[rwandan-flyer]

Surprising destination.

Ethiopian Airlines will launch a route to Porto via Madrid. Some believe that the company has not received the slots it needs to serve Lisbon. Flights from July 2, 2025 at a rate of 4 flights per week.

https://corporate.ethiopianairlines.com ... n-portugal

Unsurprisingly, Luanda is the largest market (served by TAP once a week) with 64,841 pax point-to-point. Next come Johannesburg with 8,891 pax and Maputo (8,415 pax).

TAP will probably do some pre-routing from Lisbon. For Lisbon here are the 5 largest point-to-point markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding Cape Verde, Guinea Bissau and Sao Tome Principe):

Luanda (302,921 pax), Maputo (104,559 pax), Johannesburg (40,000 pax), Cape Town (22,280 pax) and Nairobi (8,882 pax)

Sean Mendis, always very well informed about Ethiopian, had spoken of a city in Europe that will be tagged with Madrid without naming the destination (for confidential reasons). He had said that this destination had surprised him.

He also announced that Ethiopian Airlines should open a new route to the USA at the end of June 2025. According to him, it would probably be Minneapolis, in particular due to good demand in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia (served by Ethiopian several times a day).

It will probably be an announcement from Minneapolis

MSP, DUB, ISB are the three contenders. I expect it to be one or more of these, based on discussions with people within the organization and others who should be aware.

The announcement is supposed to be made today according to one of my sources within the organization. Only one of those three destinations is accurate though - the second new destination surprised me and my source! I'll post the link to the official announcement once it's made.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p24634243

It's already Thursday, is this still happening?

It will happen when it happens. They set up the European route (not DUB) for the announcement as a beacon for new MAD flights. The US route is expected to start from June 24, 2025, so there is still time to announce things.

Ethiopian will launch a service to Porto via Madrid from July 02, 2025

ET740/741 ADD 2310 - 0555+1 MAD 0705 - 0720 OPO 1945 - 2200 MAD 2310 - 0725+2 ADD (days 1/3/5/7)

https://x.com/flyethiopian/status/1895469109757759844

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p24650833

[rwandan-flyer]

There are many trip reports on Ethiopian, but I don't know if you can find many aboutg the mid-day bank. This trip report covers Kigali Addis Ababa Delhi routing. Then an Akasa flight.

Ethiopian has been implementing this connecting wave for a few years. Unlike the morning and evening ones, this connectiing wave does not cover all flights to Africa, Europe, America and Asia.

Planes leave Addis Ababa early in the morning and return to Addis Ababa between 1pm and 2:30pm and then depart in the middle of the afternoon. For flights outside Africa, there are arrivals between 1pm and 2pm and departures between 4pm and 7pm.

Here are the destinations covered. For Africa, most destinations are served 3 times a day. For Mogadishu and Djibouti, there are 2 flights per day. But the first flight leaves late from ADD and the plane leaves for Addis Ababa straight away.

Africa:

Entebbe, Dar Es Salaam, Zanzibar, Kilimanjaro, Mogadishu, Djibouti, Accra Kigali, Juba and Johannesburg

Europe:

Istanbul and Athens

Asia:

Mumbai, Dubai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Tel Aviv, Dhaka and Guangzhou.

Not a lot of destinations, but when you look at this trip report made by an Indian flying on Kigali Addis Ababa Delhi routing, you can see that the loads seems to be good whether it is from Kigali (probably a good part of the pax were leaving for India and Dubai) and whether it is for the ADD DEL flight. Ethiopian Airlines is doing very well.

KGL ADD: B737-800
ADD - DEL: B787

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQUrO9UF5rM&t=342s

[rwandan-flyer]

3rd African destination for Indigo. The airline will launch serve the Seychelles from March 25, 2025 with 4 flights per week. The company serves Nairobi every day by A320Neo also from Mumbai. As well as Mauritius. https://aviationa2z.com/index.php/2025/ ... e_vignette

Air India had a very large network in Africa until the 2000s, but due to the competition from Middle East airlines, the airline has closed its route. Today it serves Nairobi and Mauritius

The A320Neo family is the right aircraft. There are large markets still not served: Lusaka (Zambia), Entebbe (Uganda), Cairo, or Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania). In point to point Entebbe, Cairo, Dar Es Salaam, Johannesburg and Lagos would be in the top 10 of the biggest markets on Mumbai if we put these cities in Europe. It is above Geneva, Barcelona, ​​Brussels or Madrid for some of these cities. But yield is low

Point to point (Nov 23 Oct 24)

Johannesburg : 86 000
Dar Es Salaam : 65 000
Cairo : 56 000
Lagos : 53 000
Entebbe : 50 000
Lusaka : 31 000


Nairobi Mumbai (158 000) would be the 2nd biggest market ahead Paris Mumbai (151 000)

Lagos and Johannesburg would be mainly with long haul flights. But on Johannesburg the Middle Eastern companies + Kenya Airways and Ethiopian offer large capacities. In my opinion it would be complicated for an Indigo or Air India to make its flights profitable, even these flights would be very well filled.

We remember that South African Airways had closed its route and Jet Airways had not stayed long at JNB