Why doesn't SN fly to Asia?

[regi]

first: which initiatives can SN take independently?
second: been there, done that and failed. ( still don't know why Sabena flew to Madras )
third: recent developments show the great risks e.g. overflying Ukraine. What with Russian territory/sanctions in the future ? Nobody knows. Uncertainty is a killer in business.
fourth: Where is the real money? Recent information shows that the so called Chinese middle class has been widely overestimated. In numbers but also in purchasing power.
fifth - together with first: "money no have"

Pro:
The Middle East / Arab / Gulf states is served by several of their own airlines, so they deserve some Belgian competition
Korea needs attention.
Direct flights to Indonesia and Phillipines. Their airlines failed in the past. ( ok, so did Sabena ) But with good strict managment, these lines could work.
The garbage bin: Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar. If SN is strong in Africa with destinations where others are afraid of, why not make money from Asian questionable destinations?

[sn26567]

second: been there, done that and failed. ( still don't know why Sabena flew to Madras )

Because Swissair told them to fly there, keeping the more interesting destinations of Bombay and Delhi for themselves.

The situation is not different now: SN will fly to Asia only if and when LH will decide that it is good for them, with the plus that LH management is probably brighter than the SR one and will not send SN to an impossible task.

[White Light]

recent developments show the great risks e.g. overflying Ukraine. What with Russian territory/sanctions in the future ? Nobody knows. Uncertainty is a killer in business.

Great risks and uncertainty (recurrent health epidemics, coups d'Etat, ethnic wars, corruption) have always bees synonymous with Africa. Yet, SN continues to fly there inspite of the many risks and the constant uncertainty. So, why not to Asia ? Well, perhaps because yields to West and Central Africa continue to be good.

Where is the real money? Recent information shows that the so called Chinese middle class has been widely overestimated. In numbers but also in purchasing power.

Most emerging countries are over the peak of their respective economies, but still have better growth figures than Europe. If we should not except hundred of thousands of Chinese to travel to Europe, there is still a substantial number that can afford to come to Europe. Only, Belgium has always been very bad at selling itself and its tourist attractions abroad unlike Holland that does not have much more to offer, imho, than Belgium, but the Dutch are excellent sales representatives.

SN will fly to Asia only if and when LH will decide that it is good for them

May I ask for a clarification ? By "good for them" do you mean good for LH or good for SN ?

My personal interpretation remains that LH will want SN to only occupy the niche market in Western and Central Africa if it remains profitable. For other destinations outside of Europe, LH will want pax ex BRU to fly via FRA/MUC first, or ZRH/VIE. LH will want to develop itself, not SN, not in a substantial way. Too bad for the jobs that will not be created in Belgium because of the German diktat.

[sn26567]

SN will fly to Asia only if and when LH will decide that it is good for them

May I ask for a clarification ? By "good for them" do you mean good for LH or good for SN ?

What is hood for SN is good for LH, but I obviously meant "good for them (LH)".

Presently LH still grants some independence to SN (e.g. US flights), as long as the SN strategy fits with the LH ambitions. But they will for sure oppose a veto if SN would venture into risky new routes or even step on LH's toes...

[sn-remember]

As already stated in the past, in my view, the BRU l/h case is simple :

1. the N-A <-> AFI flow
Existing but in need of torough enforcement on both legs, alliance partners included on the 1st leg.
That's where the sn's metal has a role to play.
E-Afi should go twice daily at least IMO.

2. NE-Asia <-> W-Afi
This flow is thinner than the former.
Barely existing for the moment, it is long overdue IMO.
However I don't see the interest of sending SN's metal to NE-Asia. Connectivity wise SN cannot make the transfer with AFI effective in both directions.
Expected additions to the existing PEK service would be :
PVG with HU and TYO (hnd or nrt) with NH. Possibly ICN with OZ
..
We have to ask ourselves why pvg failed, why pek is not yet daily and tyo failed in the past.
I would prudently hint to the following items to check :
- feeding to w-afi enhancement and code sharing
- daily service with appropriate frame
As a side note I am not sure HU is the best partner as they are not in the star alliance ..
Would probably be better to pair with CA.

3. Future markets to watch for sn : LAX, SFO, MEX, JNB
If LH's mgt agrees though ..
..
Just my 2 cts

[regi]

JNB ?
You might have seen that I did not mention BKK by purpose as a possible destination. Because it failed in the past. And it is too competitive.
Instead of JNB, it might be interesting to investigate CPT as South-African destination.
We dealt with JNB as an old Sabena destination to start up again. And it was regarded as too thin.
No non stop flight by LH to CPT, so would it escape the attention of a German eye brow when SN would propose it ?
Coming back to the topic "Asia", I mentioned Korea. Probably out of the question as it is being served by the LH 747-800.
I would like to add Singapore as well. But as it is served by a LH A-380 , we probably have to forget about it.
AARRRGGGHHH

[sn-remember]

CPT is a very seasonal market .. Dec and jan represents more than half the yearly market. And it's relatively low yielding. JNB is more a business destination with possible higher yields and more evenly distributed trafic. SAA being what it is, the trafic is largely concentrated in the hands of the EU3 and ME3+TK. Being an e2e star alliance route, there might be a chance that a SN flight could work .. Maybe a stop in LUN would help the case, if a A333 is used ..
The trafic out of CPT is season dependant, with LH,DE,EDW,AF all flying in wintertime but not daily. Only BA and KL among the EU3 serve CPT daily year round(BA twice daily in wintertime). VS is scrapping the route this year. And SA abandonned long ago their CPT-LHR route to concentrate their business in JNB. TK will soon be flying IST-CPT non stop, splitting their current IST-JNB-CPT flight.
..
Coming back to Asia; I see a single destination possible for sn : a second flight to PEK as featured below :
HU flight : PEK 02:00 BRU 06:00 - 08:30 PEK 24:00
SN flight : BRU 14:30 PEK 06:00 - 08:00 BRU 12:30
Both flights could operate as a sort of JV.
I believe it might work with appropriate feeding to/from W/C-Afi splitted in 2 departure banks: Around 11:00 and around 14:30, both banks arriving back at BRU in the early morning.
..
Just my 2 cts ...

[Flanker2]

Japan is investing heavily in Africa, but they're doing it very quietly.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... than-china

JAPAN has invested more in project financing in Africa than China as Asian nations continue to strengthen their economic influence on the continent, according to Linklaters LLP.

Japanese investors accounted for $3.5 billion of the $4.2 billion of project funds that Asian nations poured into Africa in 2014 to improve roads, water and sanitation and build oil and gas pipelines, according to the London-based law firm.

“Japan now ranks as the most active Asian project finance sponsor in Africa, investing almost three times as much as China, which is often regarded as the most active Asian investor on the continent,” according to the report published Monday.

Sub-Saharan African nations are seeking to reverse years of under-investment by moving forward with road and rail projects to help boost economic growth, which is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to expand 4.9% this year, more than double the rate of advanced economies.

Asian investors are among those seeking deals to develop oil, gas and mineral deposits in African nations, which are exploiting their natural resources to boost revenue to fund development plans.

China ranked as the second-biggest Asian financier of projects in Africa, committing more than $11.9 billion over the past 10 years, with more than half spent in South Africa, while India placed third, Linklaters said.

Below radar

“Japan has a much quieter and below-the-radar approach, less headline-grabbing than Chinese investment,” said Andrew Jones, head of Linklaters’ Africa unit, in an interview with Bloomberg TV Africa. “We had a phase 10 to 15 years ago where there were some big Japanese investments into Africa and now there’s a new wave of investment coming.”

A significant amount of Japanese investors’ money for projects went into Morocco last year, according to the study. The North African country said in September that Japan will provide the majority of funds to build a coal-fired power plant in the western city of Safi, which will produce 1,386 megawatts, or 25 percent of the country’s needs.

“We’ve seen a mixture of securing fuel and natural resources, but also selling equipment like turbines for power stations,” Jones said of Japanese investment in Africa.

Granted that under SN's current available capital position this is a bit of a stretch, but JL is itching for new longhaul destinations and they're even running out of imagination. So much so that they're expanding longhaul from KIX in duplication to NRT using brand new B787's. I think that SN has the opportunity to go to NH and tell them that they need this link and that they would highly prefer that NH did it rather than JL.
JL is open to partnerships outside the alliance, as reflected by their codeshares with EK and AF and I think that the shareholder in the Japanese government would be very eager to have a one-stop link from corporate Tokyo to anywhere on the vast West-African network of SN.

I'm also sure that the Belgian economy would benefit from the Japanese presence, mainly through the horeca, chocolate and diamond industry, and that the regional governments would be able to offer the operator interesting incentives to stimulate that.

The benefits for SN are also very numerous. On top of the much-needed oxygen it provides to their African operations, they have a good regional network in Europe for feeding, which can be fed through these longhaul flights. In addition, they can put immediate pressure on TK who right now is being given a free lunch in Africa.

[sn-remember]

Fully agree ..
NH recently started DUS but it is scheduled as a night return B788 flight
nrt 11:00 dus 16:00 - 20:00 nrt 14:25
We could have a B788 NH flight morning departure at bru scheduled as such :
nrt 01:00 bru 06:00 - 10:30 nrt 05:00
The flight could equally operate from hnd (maybe mandatory given the night curfew at nrt).
With proper codesharing with the numerous W/C-Afi flights sn can offer, plus European feeding, along with the real market potential Belgium has, I am sure this flight could quickly become a success.

[LJ]

JL is open to partnerships outside the alliance, as reflected by their codeshares with EK and AF

You do know that the AF-JL partnership and codeshare has ended as of S15?

[Flanker2]

You do know that the AF-JL partnership and codeshare has ended as of S15?

The codeshare on the CDG-TYO sector had indeed ended, but they still cooperate for feeding at CDG.
You can still book the ZYR-CDG connection and connecting flights with HOP.

Anyways, the idea is to prove that JL is an open-minded carrier even if recently they indeed seem to be refocussing on OW. Personally I would prefer a JL B787 2-4-2 SS8 rather than a tight NH 3X3, even if in no time I would be able to upgrade for free to Y+. JL's standard Y is equivalent to Y+ already, so...
JL also offers more checked luggage allowance in terms of pieces, weight and size in Y. JL is one of those rare carriers that allow the big 203cm luggage free of charge..

I don't have a doubt that such a flight will be a success.

If NH starts with 4-5 weekly, I see them being blown away by the real market demand besides what the simulations predict, increasing to daily and even going for a B789 not long after starting the route.