Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

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Inquirer
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Inquirer »

sean1982 wrote: I'm sure the competitors will be happy to hear that.
I hope direct competitors don't need to wait for others to tell them what revenues are on routes they fly on as well: otherwise I'd strongly urge them to hire some business performance analysts ASAP.

Of course, competitors have those business performance analysts in house since long and they quickly must have noticed BRU is not exactly doing as planned revenue-wise for them, hence them quickly ringing the alarm bell and having their airlines putting a halt to all further expansion, not just over winter, but also next summer even! That really gives it away, doesn't it:
ryanair as good as freezing first winter and them summer expansion
vueling trying to redirect their summer capacity elsewhere to avoid too much head on competition
easyjet pulling out of some year round markets even
...
If I could see the writing on the wall as soon as June last year already from simply reading between the lines and looking at the few numbers available, I am sure the business analysts at the competitors HQs saw the full picture much sooner even, regardless what those may have been telling the press and their staff.
Facts have meanwhile largely confirmed my reading for the time being.

As others have mentioned meanwhile too: regardless the drop in yields, they seem to be on track to improve their year's end results, meaning they have seriously slashed their costs too while most probably keeping revenues stable (due to the growth in passenger numbers, which is thus not as financially pointless as you think it is ;)), a logical conclusion I already drew last summer, yet of which I was told by flanker2 it simply wasnt possible to lower costs by that much for a traditional airline. Seems they did just that.
The question is: are they still a truely traditional airline, or have they meanwhile turned themselves into an Aer Lingus clone and are thus something hybrid in between say a traditional low cost and a traditional network airline? I'd say they are, and so trying to read them from the 'old logic' may not be the best basis.

I agree with flanker2 that this year, in the face of competitors backing off somewhat and probably also an even lower cost environment thanks to significantly lower oil prices (at least over the first period of the year), they should find it relatively easy to become operationally profitable again, provided no unknowns happen of course.

Ah well, will make it all the easier for them to grow further: they seem to have a relatively ambitious fleet in mind in just a couple of years. Will look good when all those planes are parked at the A Terminal in BRU in the morning, for sure!

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RoMax
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by RoMax »

Flanker2 wrote: I think that you are drawing conclusions too fast based on this article.
I think that the final result will be very similar to 2013, despite this article's estimate of such a low loss.
I clearly state "if the article is right", if not and the rumours of a loss around 20 million (not including the state aid) are correct, so roughly the same loss as in 2013, than my statement is stil valid. Yes in that case their financial performance didn't improve that much, but they kept a similar loss at lower yields. But yeah let's wait until March 12 to continue on this.
Flanker2 wrote: In addition, the article confirms what I feared about North America: the best it can do is break even, there's little no money to be made there and it was a complete waste of energy and resources. In addition, predictably unpredictable circumstances have turned against SN as Ebola has chased away many North American travellers.
They expect break-even for N.-Am. this year, that's something different than saying that's the best it can do. Because this time you draw conclusions too fast. Yes indeed Ebola is messing things up now for whole Africa and the impact on the North American transfer pax is big, but you forget that in normal situations the US routes contribute to the profit of Africa in a much better way than just using codeshare partners. But ebola is not going to last for years and altough the North American market is now the one that's hit the most, it will also be the one that recovers the quickest because of the high degree of 'professional/business' travelers.
Flanker2 wrote: A profit of 1.5 million in 2015? That's also not realistically correct. SN should be able to easily turn a 10-20 million profit in 2015, with oil prices where they are.
1.5 million on SN's revenue, that's basicly a 'positive break even', so this doesn't seem to be anything more than putting a number on their break-even guideline. Yes they could end up higher, but 10-20 million just because of the oil prices and forgetting the negative impact of Ebola (which will last at least trough the summer, causing a bad tourism season for Africa this year)? I don't think so. First of all, oil prices will not stay this low. Secondly, most of the fuel has already been hedged at much higher 2013-2014 prices. Third, the impact on kerosene is lower than on crude oil and even more so for airlines working in Euro, but paying in Dollar, like SN. By the time SN gets its bills, a very large portion of the advantage has been lost.

So yes SN can end up higher if the negative Ebola impact on Africa is not too big and not too many other 'special' things happen, but it would be stupid of SN to talk about a higher guideline profit just because of an extremely unpredictable and fluid factor like the oil prices. If prices stay low, good, perfect. If it doesn't, it shouldn't mean they have to lower their expectations again.

sean1982
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by sean1982 »

Inquirer wrote:
sean1982 wrote: I'm sure the competitors will be happy to hear that.
I hope direct competitors don't need to wait for others to tell them what revenues are on routes they fly on as well: otherwise I'd strongly urge them to hire some business performance analysts ASAP.

Of course, competitors have those business performance analysts in house since long and they quickly must have noticed BRU is not exactly doing as planned revenue-wise for them, hence them quickly ringing the alarm bell and having their airlines putting a halt to all further expansion, not just over winter, but also next summer even! That really gives it away, doesn't it:
ryanair as good as freezing first winter and them summer expansion
vueling trying to redirect their summer capacity elsewhere to avoid too much head on competition
easyjet pulling out of some year round markets even
...
If I could see the writing on the wall as soon as June last year already from simply reading between the lines and looking at the few numbers available, I am sure the business analysts at the competitors HQs saw the full picture much sooner even, regardless what those may have been telling the press and their staff.
Facts have meanwhile largely confirmed my reading for the time being.

As others have mentioned meanwhile too: regardless the drop in yields, they seem to be on track to improve their year's end results, meaning they have seriously slashed their costs too while most probably keeping revenues stable (due to the growth in passenger numbers, which is thus not as financially pointless as you think it is ;)), a logical conclusion I already drew last summer, yet of which I was told by flanker2 it simply wasnt possible to lower costs by that much for a traditional airline. Seems they did just that.
The question is: are they still a truely traditional airline, or have they meanwhile turned themselves into an Aer Lingus clone and are thus something hybrid in between say a traditional low cost and a traditional network airline? I'd say they are, and so trying to read them from the 'old logic' may not be the best basis.

I agree with flanker2 that this year, in the face of competitors backing off somewhat and probably also an even lower cost environment thanks to significantly lower oil prices (at least over the first period of the year), they should find it relatively easy to become operationally profitable again, provided no unknowns happen of course.

Ah well, will make it all the easier for them to grow further: they seem to have a relatively ambitious fleet in mind in just a couple of years. Will look good when all those planes are parked at the A Terminal in BRU in the morning, for sure!
They didnt freeze it. They added Dublin for the winter, they added Verona for the summer. They are slowly but surely expanding. And with SN phasing out the smaller aircraft and switching to larger aircraft yield will be even more under pressure. On top of that .. Neither FR, U2 or VY need to get their bread and butter from BRU

OO-ITR
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by OO-ITR »

sean1982 wrote:Barcelona for example yields are 20-25% down. I'm sure the competitors will be happy to hear that.
Also interesting to see is how much money those competitors are 'making' on these routes. Unfortunately those info is not disclosed!

sean1982
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by sean1982 »

OO-ITR wrote:
sean1982 wrote:Barcelona for example yields are 20-25% down. I'm sure the competitors will be happy to hear that.
Also interesting to see is how much money those competitors are 'making' on these routes. Unfortunately those info is not disclosed!
Neither does it really matter as their backbone is strong enough to carry losses incurred. Having said that FR is performing above target at BRU

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by sn26567 »

sean1982 wrote:FR is performing above target at BRU
In number of pax or in profits? Because, with the prices that I paid for my tickets...
André
ex Sabena #26567

sean1982
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by sean1982 »

sn26567 wrote:
sean1982 wrote:FR is performing above target at BRU
In number of pax or in profits? Because, with the prices that I paid for my tickets...
On all accounts

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luchtzak
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by luchtzak »

Note from moderator: please continue discussion in a constructive and positive matter, all non-related remarks/comments/replies will be removed!

brusselsairlinesfan
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by brusselsairlinesfan »

I am very happy to see such positive figures for my fav' airline!
I think that both SN & FR offers can live together @ BRU... However, I think that Vueling & Easy Jet may be hurted...

sean1982
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by sean1982 »

According to the new updated article on flightlevel.be losses incurred in 2014 are even higher than losses incurred in 2013 and that is with the state aid included.

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RoMax
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by RoMax »

]
sean1982 wrote:According to the new updated article on flightlevel.be losses incurred in 2014 are even higher than losses incurred in 2013 and that is with the state aid included.
No, the update says losses are 4 to 5 million lower than in 2013. So 17-18 million iso 22 million (both with state aid included). In Dutch it says 'dat het verlies 4 tot 5 miljoen lager zal uitkomen', 'a lower loss' is an improvement, Sean.

sean1982
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by sean1982 »

RoMax wrote:]
sean1982 wrote:According to the new updated article on flightlevel.be losses incurred in 2014 are even higher than losses incurred in 2013 and that is with the state aid included.
No, the update says losses are 4 to 5 million lower than in 2013. So 17-18 million iso 22 million (both with state aid included). In Dutch it says 'dat het verlies 4 tot 5 miljoen lager zal uitkomen', 'a lower loss' is an improvement, Sean.
True! Sorry ... I was reading it in the car to quickly (I know)

Inquirer
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Brussels Airlines significantly reduced its losses over 2014

Post by Inquirer »

According to De Tijd today,
Brussels Airlines annouced it booked a net loss of €4M over 2014 (vs. €22M in 2013).
The operational loss of the airline stood at €9M over 2014 (vs. €28M last year).

http://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/transport ... 8-3084.art

Pocahontas
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Re: Brussels Airlines significantly reduced its losses over 2014

Post by Pocahontas »

Timer top!

Homo Aeroportus
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Re: Brussels Airlines significantly reduced its losses over 2014

Post by Homo Aeroportus »

Pocahontas wrote:Timer top!
:thumbup:

H.A.

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luchtzak
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Re: Brussels Airlines significantly reduced its losses over 2014

Post by luchtzak »

Inquirer wrote:According to De Tijd today,
Brussels Airlines annouced it booked a net loss of €4M over 2014 (vs. €22M in 2013).
The operational loss of the airline stood at €9M over 2014 (vs. €28M last year).

http://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/transport ... 8-3084.art
Full detailed press release: https://www.aviation24.be/airlines_press_r ... -losses-2/

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tolipanebas
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by tolipanebas »

As a small side note to today's 'big news', here are the monthly passenger figures for February 2015:

passenger growth: +10,7% (+12,6% on Europe even)
Loadfactor growth of +2,0%
and to please flanker2,
ASK growth: +5,5%
RSK growth: +8,8%

https://www.aviation24.be/airlines_press_r ... -february/

These figures shows that contrary to what a certain self-declared 'expert' pretended up to a few weeks ago, SN shows no problem continuing it's growth for a second round in 2015 now that all planes are back flying, exactly as I told him, but then what do I know, right? ;)


Flanker2
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Flanker2 »

Even though SN's balance sheet has not improved yet, things are looking up.
A 20 million loss before subsidies is much less than I expected.
For the rest, nothing new. Higher passenger numbers but lower yields, and the result ended up somewhere a bit better.

February figures are very promising indeed with excellent RSK growth, the most important tool to measure operational performance.

I think that SN could have an excellent 2015 with decent profits, even without counting the subsidies.
The weak Euro is going to help their U.S. sales for sure, even though it will have an impact on their costs side. But the cheap oil will be the main driver of profits.

The Avro's going out will be a great thing to look out to.

But caution is still required as there are still many variables. As said in Terzake, the subsidies are still uncertain and if SN has to reimburse it within a short deadline, ....well we all know what happened to Cyprus Airways. I'm sure that if they're profitable, the shareholders will not mind adding a few coins to even the balance.

In terms of macro, the financial climate is very unstable. If the Euro goes below the dollar parity, it could spark a dangerous reaction, that coupled with the financial cycle which is currently at a peak of a cycle at the global scale, could spark another big stock sell-off. Today the Euro is at 1,06 USD, which is uncharted territory.
In addition, Europe's purchasing power is coming into a danger zone as most domestic-use products are produced outside the Euro zone and imported to Europe in Dollar currency. Many small businesses will suffer as they rely on imported products for their revenue or at least for parts required to make their products.
Many large corporations also get raw materials, parts from outside the Euro-zone, which is a big risk. In addition, many European corporations produce outside the EU and sell inside the EU. Just think about car manufacturing where parts come from China while they are produced in Turkey and later sold in Europe.

Gustin has finally understood that the processes within SN have to be improved. In many aspects, they are still working on DAT-inherited systems and processes, which are not efficient at the much larger scale of SN.
I also think that they have to improve their marketing. It's already better than before, but they can do much better if they work on their brand recognition. It doesn't have to cost a lot of money, it's not that hard to get exposure if they do it right.

OO-ITR
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by OO-ITR »

Boeing767copilot wrote:And meanwhile in the SN corridors:

Losses in 2014 were approximately 20 mio euro.
Without state aid: approximately 36 mio euro.
I guess someone has been walking in the wrong corridor... :lol: :lol: :lol:

But as a 767 pilot I doubt that is an SN corridor...

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