Well, it's far beyond the scope of this topic, but just a little word on the "QE the ECB style", because as usual I should sadly say, flanker tries to sing a song without knowing the lyrics very well.
The ECB will most probably decide to a limited form of QE in Q1 next year, but contrary to the US FED, its going to have to be limited in time and volume, if only to please the Germans (notably Karlsruhe).
Draghi has repeatedly hinted at the size of any QE to be expected by explicitly referring to the ECB's balance sheet of summer 2012, when the eurocrisis what at its hight.
As such, given the fact the ECB has meanwhile also rolled out other liquidity programs (I will save you the abbreviations of all those tools), the remaining portion of 'pure' QE is not going to be what the FED has been doing and the markets are already taking an advance on it today, so contrary to whay flanker hopes for, the euro is obviously not going to sink through the floor because of it for the simple reason the balance sheet of the ECB is not going to be let to grow beyond what it was in summer 2012.
What can be expected is a modest weakening which in turn and over time, will help stimulate our export.
Finally, it is worthy of mentioning that any euro weakening right at a time when oil prices have litterally plummeted, is relatively painless for airlines as the largest chunk of their dollar costs is oil of course.
At its worst, it'll shave off a bit of the savings they'll make on their lowered oil bills.
Which leads me to another thing, which I have pointed at a few times already and is very present here once more: i.e. the surprisingly ease at which flanker decides to factor in -or completely ignore- certain elements depending on whether they have a positive outcome in his not surprisingly alway wrong analysis.
in this context, it is interesting to note how last year he was claiming a less than 10% fluctuation in fuel price yielded an almost immediate improvement of the financial result (something I vehemently opposed), whereas this year's plummeting oil prices will -dixit flanker- have no effect whatsoever next year?!
If you want a demonstration of somebody cherry picking elements to fit his story and to bend the truth till it matches his take on the matter, read the posts made by him in this topic around this time last year!
It's very interesting to say the least, not just to read the completely wrong preditions for 2014 he then made, but also the very weird financial logic behind them (which he has now completele reversed, btw).
You know flanker, even a stopped clock is bound to be right 2 times a day, yet you have changed position on the financial effects price fluctuations have, exactly when you shouldn't have.
Maybe my explanation on hedging and the effects modest price fluctuations have on them was pretty convincing back then after all, not only to all the others here, but also to you, but in this case you really should have kept position as you are going to be shown wrong again now given the magnitude and pace of this year's drop, meaning the theory of small variations isn't applicable here, I can already tell you!
As said before: you really seem to have a nose for betting on he wrong hore, sir!
It's really amazing!
One would hope that you draw conclusions from this and try to do as most professionals do, i.e. refrain from making solid (and in hindsight completely wrong) predictions on the result, but merely give guidance as to the direction they are seen to be heading, something you may have noticed is exactly what I always limit myself to. The assumption as to whether this guidance of mine which is increasingly pointing in one direction means they may be out of the woods like you seem to be fearing for, is of course entirely yours, and yours alone.
