Aviation and the Ebola epidemic in West-Africa

[Flanker2]

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia and the European countries were studying the issue of the use of special aviation of the Russian Federation to fight Ebola. "Now experts are exploring the possibility of joint work," Putin said at a meeting with the Director General of the World Health Organization Margaret Chan.

Putin noted that several European countries addressed Russia with a request to use special aircraft and capsules to transport infected patients. "We have the means for that," said Putin.

Russia will continue to help other countries struggle against Ebola and will do everything to protect its own population from the virus. "We have to act very carefully, to protect our own people from this infection," said Putin, TASS reports.

http://english.pravda.ru/russia/economi ... a_ebola-0/

I haven't heard one Western politician say anything like: "We have to act very carefully, to protect our own people from this infection".

All we hear from our politicians is: stop overreacting, don't panic, don't worry, all is fine.
In the meanwhile they are themselves panicking and hundreds of people are being monitored, dozens quarantined, while they treat every single vomiting person as if they had Ebola.

“Out of an abundance of caution and to allow the investigation to proceed, pedestrian and vehicular traffic around the Pentagon South Parking lot’s lanes 7-23 will remain restricted until further notice,” Pentagon spokeswoman Lt. Col. Valerie Henderson said.

http://rt.com/news/194256-global-ebola- ... eath-toll/

At the same above link, RT.com is keeping a live Ebola diary, very informative and no anti-Western bias (they also mention the U.S. and U.K. efforts, positive CDC efforts, positive initiatives of Obama's, etc...)

If we follow this diary, we can see that there are suspected cases all over Europe, the U.S. and even Russia, all undergoing testing.


Oh boy, it's going to be a long winter.

[Flanker2]

Nigeria's ultra-agressive reaction to Ebola, stopped it on its tracks:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... o-quickly/

WHO said about Nigeria's reaction: world-class medical detective work.

Race to prevent spread
Nigeria's index patient had been caring for a family member in Liberia who died from Ebola on July 8. Despite having been hospitalized in the Liberian capital Monrovia with fever and Ebola symptoms on July 17, he left medical care (against advice) and three days later took a commercial flight to Nigeria via Togo. After landing he collapsed at the Lagos airport and was taken to the hospital.

There it took three days before an Ebola diagnosis was made. The patient said he had no known exposure to Ebola, so he was first thought to have malaria, which is common and can have similar symptoms including fever, vomiting and headache. After malaria treatment failed to improve the patient's symptoms, however, medical staff began to consider Ebola, especially given his recent travel history. He was moved to isolation while test results confirmed the virus.

From this single individual, who died from the disease July 25, infectious disease experts generated a list of 898 contacts. Why so many? In addition to having become ill in a public place, the patient also infected an individual who then flew to and back from another Nigerian city, Port Harcourt, in late July while sick. That individual passed the infection to three other people, including a health care worker who died on August 22—but not before generating 526 more contacts. The index patient's primary and secondary contacts had only added up to 351.

The fact that two individuals were able to generate so many contacts shows just how vigilant authorities must be in tracking every last potential exposure. But the vigilance paid off. No new cases have been diagnosed in more than a month, and October 1 marked the date at which all of Nigeria’s 898 contacts passed the 21-day incubation period during which Ebola symptoms can present themselves.

[Passenger]

So you know how politicians are. And you rely on them to do the right thing for the nation?

The new minister for Health, a medical doctor herself, has appointed dr. Erika Vlieghe as national ebola coordinator. "The nation hasn't to be saved, but Dr. Vlieghe will indeed "do the right". She has practical experience with fighting ebola (and malaria), she works with an excellent team so she will do what has to be done. But then... you are probably unable to agree also with this, because just a few days ago you said that we only have mediocre doctors in Belgium.
http://www.itg.be/ITG/GeneralSite/Defau ... e=5200&L=E

If this thing spreads into Belgium, they will quit and leave the rest of the people to deal with it.

You know very good that there will be no outbreak of Ebola in Belgium. The worst that could happen, is that we will have a few ebola cases. And yes, there is a chance that it will be "caused" by one of the volunteers. But if Belgium and other countries don't send doctors and nurses to West Africa, there is a 100% guarantee that ebola will spread worldwide - and will kill thousands of Europeans. But I don't need to say that ebola will become 100% sure a worldwide pandemy unless we send volunteers, do I? You know it, but the irresistable need to bash Brussels Airlines takes over from realism and fairness towards the real facts and those volunteers.

Doctors and medical personnel helping on Ebola are being reckless here. They come back from there as if it was a trip to Disneyland, putting friends and family at risk.

There's another batch of tourists going to Disneyland: Cuba has already 165 doctors in Sierra Leone, and they're going to send 296 more to Liberia and Guinea.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... d-26284142

[Flanker2]

You know very good that there will be no outbreak of Ebola in Belgium.

I know very well that at this rate, there will be one.
Your attitude and the government's attitude proves that a good part of Belgium doesn't have the right attitude and discipline towards Ebola.

A country that has the right attitude is Japan, as thermal camera's are already scanning for potential subjects at NRT, while you can't reach Japan without making at least 2 stops.
BRU that has direct flights doesn't even seem to be interested.

Japan is also saying that this is only the first barrier of defense as 47 hospitals are on high alert and have already trained all its staff. In the meanwhile, daily programs are educating the population about the risks of Ebola. Japan fears that aid workers might bring Ebola into the country and will probably follow them up very tightly.

The government has issued protocols for identification and detection of Ebola that are available on their website for anyone to look into.

And yes, there is a chance that it will be "caused" by one of the volunteers. But if Belgium and other countries don't send doctors and nurses to West Africa, there is a 100% guarantee that ebola will spread worldwide

Yes, but said doctors and nurses find it inconvenient to undergo a 21 day isolation before or after returning, because they're reckless. Why take the risk of infecting and killing even one single person, instead of watching TV or movies for 21 days in an isolated room?
Are 21 days of your life worth more than the entire life of other people?
While they may become heroes in West-Africa, they will become murderers in their home country.
Or do you really think that if children die, the families will just accept it "because it's a global crisis"?

[sn-remember]

I ask myself how could we organize a quarantine in practice ?
Anybody a suggestion ?

[Passenger]

I ask myself how could we organize a quarantine in practice ? Anybody a suggestion ?

Difficult question - depends on the number of people you want to put in quarantine: whole loads of flights arriving at BRU, only people having confirmed ebola on Belgian soil & their relatives, people suspected of having ebola & their relatives, ...

For individual ebola cases, I think we can. Example: last week, there was an ebola alert in Brasschaat (north of Antwerp). The "patient" phoned the local hospital (Klina), drove to there herself and was awaited by protected staff. She then was transferred to one ward where she was the only patient and all staff weared protected clothings and masks. Very little time later (don't exactly when), two special ambulances and a few motards from the Antwerp police arrived at that hospital. The patient was then transported to the UZA Hospital in Edegem (south of Antwerp, a 20 minutes drive on the E19) and put in the special "ebola room" at the UZA. Meanwhile blood samples were transported to Hamburg (don't know how), and one day later, the lab enclosed that she had no ebola.

Another example: last Thursday, there was an ebola alert on a cargo ship nearing Antwerp harbour, and coming from West Africa. The captain alerted emergency services, and harbour authorities told the ship to halt outside the harbour. A medical team in protected suits boarded the ship. A doctor checked the seaman and concluded that the absence of fever ment that it could not be ebola. The seaman was transferred to the ITG for a check on malaria, and all alerts were called off.

[sn-remember]

Thank you . but I was thinking about the SN daily flight from EB-3.
To be precise, it's not daily but 6wkly and the pax from dkr should be clared (up to now)
So assume it would be around 120 pax put in quarantine for 10 days (I know the 21 days theoretical window but 10 days arguably screens 90% of cases)

[Flanker2]

A quarantine is simple to organise.
Every incoming person from the Ebola-3 should be checked for fever, then isolated in a hotel or hospital room for 21 days. The person would have to undergo regular daily self-checks of fever and general condition.
After 21 days, he would undergo a final check by a doctor (who is himself checked by another doctor) and be released to continue daily life.

This is doable if limited to Ebola aid workers who can self-check.
We can't do this with 100-200 passengers a day, which is why travel should be limited to aid workers only.

Sure it's inconvenient for the returning aid workers, but if it can save lives around the world and avoid useless quarantine actions all around the globe, isn't it worth a small inconvenience of a small gorup of people?

[sn-remember]

The question of the pax qualification is somehow irrelevant to my question ..
However imagine most (if not all) 120 pax are aid workers or somehow related to evd ? (which soon might be the case, and don't forget, these are the most threatened by the virus).
I say "imagine" ...

[FlightMate]

I still think it's hard to organize a proper quarantine for every pax.
And the 'questionnaire' given to each passenger is a joke of course.

But the bare minimum would be to ban the medical staff from travelling just days after they've been in close contact with sick people.

[Passenger]

The question of the pax qualification is somehow irrelevant to my question ..
However imagine most (if not all) 120 pax are aid workers or somehow related to evd ? (which soon might be the case, and don't forget, these are the most threatened by the virus).
I say "imagine" ...

Do we agree that a constant and spreaded flow of western aid workers is the only way to stop ebola in West Africa, and do we agree that stopping ebola in West Africa is the only way to avoid that ebola becomes a worldwide pandemy?

[sn-remember]

Yes we agree (not only from the western world btw) but you are not considering my question ..

[sean1982]

The question of the pax qualification is somehow irrelevant to my question ..
However imagine most (if not all) 120 pax are aid workers or somehow related to evd ? (which soon might be the case, and don't forget, these are the most threatened by the virus).
I say "imagine" ...

Do we agree that a constant and spreaded flow of western aid workers is the only way to stop ebola in West Africa, and do we agree that stopping ebola in West Africa is the only way to avoid that ebola becomes a worldwide pandemy?

Yes, and we also agreed that this can be provided by organised relief flights. So why do we need commercial traffic? Probably another simple question you wont be able to answer

[sn-remember]

But how would you imagine organising the quarantine of some 120 daily workers ?
Whatever the transport type (civilian or not)

[Inquirer]

Something not mentioned yet:
Some NGOs do not want to make use of government airlift, because they do not want to be associated with any particular government, while a certain government very powerful is legally banned from providing assistance to specific NGOs because they promote practices not compliant with their moral laws.
(I am talking about the USA and abortion here!)

BTW, Sean, how about a public reaction to the Univerity of Boston's clarification on their statistical model?

[sn-remember]

I am not sure a hospital is the best place for that ..
I would cautiously suggest to organize it like we did for the refugees or asylum seekers ..
Military camps reaffected for that purpose ?
What you guys think ?
@Inquirer : Pls feel free to give us some enlightment on that question ?

[Passenger]

Yes we agree (not only from the western world btw) but you are not considering my question ..

No, I was, but I needed to know how much passengers must be isolated.

So, pure theoretical:

For a quarantine, one cannot make a difference between aid workers, local people (going abroad) and Europeans (returning home after a business trip or a family visit). So the total number of pax on a flight = total number to be isololated.

Furthermore, one must put all people into quarantine for the full risk period (20 days) and not just for an average risk period (10 days).

On 14th October, Homo Aeroportus posted a list with all direct flights from ebola-countries to Western European countries. The list makes it clear that is not possible to install a quarantine for flights coming from ebola countries. After three weeks of quarantine, and assuming we need several more months to contain ebola (and probably longer to abolish it) we will need more then 50.000 hotel rooms on a daily basis. They are not available.

As from this week, the schedule is as follows :

Commercial Passenger Airline Schedules :
To/from ROB : Brussels Airlines (Mon, Fri) and RAM (Mon, Wed, Fri)
To/from FNA : BruAir (Wed, Sun) and RAM (Mon, Fri, Sun)
To/from CKY : AF (daily), BruAir (Wed, Sun), and RAM (Wed, Fri, Sun).

UNHAS intra-theatre Flights :
19-seat Beech 1900 based in Conakry :
Mondays & Wednesdays : CKY – Kissidougou (GUKU) – Nzerekore (GUNZ) – CKY
Tuesdays & Fridays : CKY – ROB – Foya (GLFO) – Voinjama (GLVA) – ROB – CKY
Saturdays : CKY – GUKU – GUNZ – CKY

Helicopter (type uknwn) 9 pax or 1.1 MT, based in ROB :
Mondays & Wednesdays : ROB – Phebe Hospital – ROB – Cuttington University – ROB
Tuesdays & Thursdays : ROB – GLFO – GLVA – ROB
Fridays : ROB – Bo (GFBO) – Kenema (GFKE) – ROB

External Links, UNHAS and UNMIL :
Boeing 737, 110 Pax - 8MT, based in ACC :
ACC – ROB – ACC, Sun & Fri

CRJ200, 50 Pax, based in DKR :
Mondays & Fridays : DKR – CKY – FNA – ROB – FNA – CKY – DKR
Wednesdays : DKR – ACC – ROB – FNA – CKY – DKRH.A.

[Inquirer]

I am not sure a hospital is the best place for that ..
I would cautiously suggest to organize it like we did for the refugees or asylum seekers ..
Military camps reaffected for that purpose ?
What you guys think ?

I think THAT is the best way to make sure an individual case is quickly spread inside the camp!
Remember you need close contact with a case to be infected, so it's a lucky thing people live together with just 1 or 2 other people in Europe; I highly doubt it's a good idea to make them live in larger groups -especially in a large risk group- as this makes a potential spreading much easier: you risk reproducing the African society overhere, so to say, which is said to be the ideal environment for a quick multiplication.
Understandable proposal for sure, but a counter productive one, IMHO.

[sn-remember]

OK thank you Passenger
However I was talking of some 120 pax on a 6 weekly basis. Lets stick to that ?

[Inquirer]

But why stick to just those?
As I have pointed out quite a few times in the past, there a other ways to see this come to us, e.g. merchant ships in our ports or the endless streams of illegal immigrants just to name a few completely outside if the scope of this forum so far.

Allow me to say it is an error often made in this discussion: artificially limiting the scope of the discussion to something (1 route, 1 airline, 1 way of transport) to make a 'meaningful' suggestion, but one that is purely theoretical only because it doesn't help in real as it ignores all the other options.

The other eye popping case I am referring to is of course the Univ. of Boston's statistical model used by some to call for an immediate ban on air travel. It sounded a scientifically correct demand, until the Prof himself called their conclusions from his model wrong because they systematically failed to grasp the importance of the delimitation built into it.
You can read it here, since you've asked me for clarification in your previous post.
I am not going to reclaim everything, if you don't mind?
https://www.aviation24.be/forums/viewtopic ... 40#p307266