Which aircraft for Brussels Airlines' African operations?

[RTM]

I have met with some of the managers who do the math for a major Belgian company and I've seen some of their presentations, which made me hold my laughs. It was basic math and yet it was flawed. When I asked him a question, he started creating a new truth around the numbers to cover up his embarassment.

Now... THAT sounds familiar... where have I seen that before...

Your numbers are way, way to optimistic Flanker... sorry...

[sn26567]

I mentioned earlier the AA A321 doing transcontinental flights in the US. They carry just 102 passengers, no more (10F in a 1-1 flat bed config, 20C in a 2-2 flat bed config, and 72Y in a 3-3 config, of which 36 with extra leg room).

[convair]

I mentioned earlier the AA A321 doing transcontinental flights in the US. They carry just 102 passengers, no more (10F in a 1-1 flat bed config, 20C in a 2-2 flat bed config, and 72Y in a 3-3 config, of which 36 with extra leg room).

If you replace the 5 F rows by 10 economy rows you add 50 seats, I.e. a total of 152 seats maximum, still far from the 182 seats some would want to squeeze in.

[RTM]

If you replace the 5 F rows by 10 economy rows you add 50 seats, I.e. a total of 152 seats maximum, still far from the 182 seats some would want to squeeze in.

According Tolipenebas, SN was looking at a 170 seat configuration, sa that sounds about right.

[Flanker2]

I mentioned earlier the AA A321 doing transcontinental flights in the US. They carry just 102 passengers, no more (10F in a 1-1 flat bed config, 20C in a 2-2 flat bed config, and 72Y in a 3-3 config, of which 36 with extra leg room).

I don't know if AA did this on the basis of performance limitations of the A321 or other considerations. I was under the impression that this service was to replace a B767 service, with high frequencies and more premium.

Even if it were due to operational limitations, this would be because of prevailing Westerly winds on a East-West route as is the case on US transcons. At cruise flight levels, this is a constant 100-200km/hour wind.
See here for the charts of the day: https://www.aviationweather.gov/windtemp

A North-South track such as BRU-Africa doesn't have this problem.
With the NEO, many African destinations would not have any range problems.

Comparing a 170 seat A321 against a 286 seat A333 brings a 7% margin of error as the A321 would have more premium seats than the A333. Still a long way to justify the old A333 over a pair of new A321 NEO.

40.000 pax per year carried between African cities... yes that will make a case for such an operation... How much revenue does that add? 100 euro's a piece, 4 million a year sounds about it. The secto.rs aren't that long.
What's the actual cost of the intra-African sectors? 20-25 millions a year pax even if we consider that 50% of the pax stay aboard until the second African stop?

How can you compensate for that, the fuel savings of the A321 NEO, the additional 20% of capacity and the additional availability for intra-EU, mid-haul?
-Lease costs? Yes, an old A333 is cheaper than 2 new A321 NEO's by about 300k euro/month but the availability for mid-haul and intra-EU offsets that completely.
-Crew costs? Partially offset by using augmented crews, thus avoiding hotel, transfers and per diems on both flight and cabin crews. The productivity is higher, average wages lower.
-Maintenance costs? I think that 2 A321 have the same maintenance costs as 1 A333 of the same age. So 2 new A321 NEO's will have significantly lower maintenance costs than an old A333. This adds to the advantage of the NEO's.
-Insurance costs? Too small to even include in this comparison
-Cargo revenue? It would be interesting to know what SN's average cargo revenue per A333 flight on Western Africa is. I'm sure that it's not as big as some here think it is, air freight prices from Africa are around 5-7$/kg retail, including handling and administration, so wholesale nett yields must be really much lower. I don't see a lot of freight to Africa going through BRU, as most of the air freight stuff that goes to Africa comes from Asia.
But even so, the A321 can carry pallets and containers, and plenty of them. Even with many pax taking 2 luggage, the A321 could guarrantee 1 or 2 pallet positions on each flight and limit itself to taking only the highest yield cargo, but with higher frequency, which is what really matters.
As I said before, if the yield was significant enough, it would justify operating dedicated narrowbody freighters. But I doubt that the yield would justify that, hence the A333's are burning extra fuel carrying low yield cargo.
For me this modus operandis with A333's is like a generator charging a battery that runs a motor, which powers the first generator. It's just an idle operation of additional costs compensated by additional revenues.
Other costs: the A321 NEO adds a level of flexibility to the operation that would see SN avoid millions in hotel accommodations, compensations to pax and wasted perishable cargo, Hifly wetleases whenever an airplane goes tech, as you reduce the risk by almost 50%. You can take an A321 out of their mid-haul and intra-EU duties to dedicate it temporarily to African operations whenever one of them or even an A333 goes tech in Africa or even BRU.
If tomorrow an A330 has major damage to it due to an incident/accident, it can cost SN tens of millions of euro's until they find a suitable replacement and add it to the fleet. Even if insurance cover the damage to the airplane, the operator has to absorb all the operating costs that arise from this.

[RTM]

Amazing how one can just completely ignore, or even deny factual info...
SN did the math, they actally considdered your proposal Flanker, allthough I'm quite sure not because you said so. But, they did it nevertheless. Their conclusion based on among other, simulations using real and realistic data. Your reply,... yes, but that is just a simulation...!?! And then you trompet on with over glorified internet data and tell them they are wrong... Well, your data is not a simulation, it is an imagination... And according to you more relyable then the pro's at SN...

Listen, they tried, took a serious look at it, but it didn't pan out. No big deal, move on to more realistic matters. No need to keep pressing while the plane can't even reach the places you want it to go. And on top of that, it failed the side by side comparison with the A333, which turns out to bring more revenu below the bottom line with all factors taken into account. Just read back a couple of posts, you'll see. There is the luxury here that someone shares actual inside info, so don't deny or ignore it.

SN is actually very proactive in optimising their fleet to the best of their capabilities. The main focus in that respect right now is the European fleet with the replacement of the Avro's. They may even also decide to replace older A319's allready, so big effort. Beside that, long haul expansion will still be a main focus as well, but in the same line of what is allready in place. A330 replacement... My guess, when the last Avro has left, the focus will shift there.

[Passenger]

...Lease costs? Yes, an old A333 is cheaper than 2 new A321 NEO's by about 300k euro/month...

Would be great if you would share these two monthly lease amounts with us.

[Flanker2]

Dear RTM, that A321/A333 comparison is made by the same people who predicted a break-even or small loss in 2012 and 2013 at the beginning of each of those years and including ETS charges they never had to pay.

I could be off by a little but not much, there is simply no way at all for the A333 to beat the NEO on SN's operations. No way at all, there is too much in favor of the economics of the A321 to overturn it.

I'm not saying that they should replace the A333's by A321's, I'm saying that they need to shift the aircraft around so they can expand longhaul without adding A333's. That would be much easier to sell to the shareholders and it would enable SN to increase frequencies or even move some A330's around to start Africa feeding flights to China.

[Passenger]

-Lease costs? Yes, an old A333 is cheaper than 2 new A321 NEO's by about 300k euro/month...

Repeat : would be great if you would share these two monthly lease amounts with us.

[HighInTheSky]

40.000 pax per year carried between African cities... yes that will make a case for such an operation... How much revenue does that add? 100 euro's a piece, 4 million a year sounds about it. The secto.rs aren't that long.

Most pax pay more for their CKY-DKR / DKR-CKY / FNA-ROB / COO-ABJ /ABJ-LFW / ... then the pax that are onboard doing the BRU-AFI sector. 600€ is no exception.
So, try again with these real life calculations.

[RTM]

Dear RTM, that A321/A333 comparison is made by the same people who predicted a break-even or small loss in 2012 and 2013 at the beginning of each of those years and including ETS charges they never had to pay.

Yet, they are the ones running the airline, and actually, IMO, not doing to bad a job if you look at the pax and cargo figures so far this year. I agree, lets wait for the finances to cry victory, but give credit where it is due. It is not like SN is the only company feeling the poor times.

I could be off by a little but not much

About 500NM

there is simply no way at all for the A333 to beat the NEO on SN's operations. No way at all, there is too much in favor of the economics of the A321 to overturn it.

That is, if they use the figures you dreamt up... But in reality, they use real figures, and as Tolipenebas pointed out, it could work, if they get the aircraft realy, realy cheap, which they can't. What do you suggest? Knock on Airbus' door and beg them to donate some aircraft for the good cause of making money for SN? And do not forget that it has to be sooo cheap, that it also compensates for the loss in Cargo revenu. Yes I know, in your figures it is negligable, but in the real ones it isn't.

I'm not saying that they should replace the A333's by A321's, I'm saying that they need to shift the aircraft around so they can expand longhaul without adding A333's. That would be much easier to sell to the shareholders and it would enable SN to increase frequencies or even move some A330's around to start Africa feeding flights to China.

I think they are selling the current plans to the shareholders quite well actually... Given the fact LH is backing them with so much cash to pull it off...
But again, they did the math, A333 is better for their needs.