Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

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Inquirer
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Joined: 14 Feb 2012, 14:30

Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Inquirer »

Thank you all for the many positive remarks to my little explanation on hedging these days.

To that single member who absolutely feels the need to -as he calls it- 'teach us all some lessons' : this forum isn't about blowing away anybody, Flanker2, nor about 'teaching lessons to others'.
When the sole purpose of your visit is to be found in the pleasure of posting condescending remarks and to silence anybody who dares to point out the many weaknesses to your often very wild theories which you post here, you are missing the whole point of this forum, but I will not fall into your all too obvious trap: you sir have been repeatedly banned for misbehaviour and that's for a very obvious reason: sadly those bans have not yet yielded the wanted behavioural results.

A bit more practical background on how hedges are practically organized: obviously there's not just 1 single hedge, but rather a whole set of deals, all with different counterparties, done in order to limit the counterparty risk while at the same allowing the hedger to have a more diverse portfolio. Needless to point out this widens the combined collar's outer boundries, but also makes that some of the hedges are indeed capped off, even in case of just modest swings.

All of which lead to the conclusion which is that lower fuel prices are indeed a good thing for all consumers and that airlines are no exception to that, but contrary to what flanker2 pretended, the full benefit from the significantly lower fuel prices are not yet entirely reflected in the reported results of hedged airlines, the reasons for that I have tried to explain as clearly as possible and apparently got well understood by many of you, much to his obvious subsequent frustration. ;)

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sn26567
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by sn26567 »

sn26567 wrote:
teddybAIR wrote:Can we in 2014 try a little more to accept the fact that points of view can be different and that that very fact is why we can have interesting discussions?

Wise words that I strongly support, with the hope that all our readers will comply.
To extend on this, a picture that I got from Belgian tennis player Kirsten Flipkens
Image
André
ex Sabena #26567

Flanker2
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Joined: 05 Dec 2012, 23:15

Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Flanker2 »

This is clearly not your line of work. I won't waste time explaining everything that's wrong with your analysis because almost everything is wrong. It has nothing to do with hedging, nor does it have anything to do with SN's financials.

A good start for you would be http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_hedging
After you read that, you can explain to me why SN would not benefit I quote myself:
at least another 10 million for the lower fuel prices.
You seemed to have a lot to say about my analysis, which was actually very conservative.
If SN benefited fully, their benefit would have been 30 million euro's or more, which as a self-proclamed specialist, just as any 15 year old kid, you could have figured out by just a glimpse at the graph I posted.

I did take many factors into account when I issued the 10 million number, including possible caps, contract costs, fuel delivery cost, fuel purchase at outstations, etc... As those factors are impossible to measure accurately, I took the bottom number 10 millions and added "at least".


You may have impressed many people... you impressed me by how many people you impressed with your nicely written text that has no meaning. Have you considered a vocation as religious leader?
Inquirer wrote:Of course,but the point I make is that when you are hedged by means of a collar construction (which I know them to be for a fact), any drop in oil price is tapered off for the duration of the hedge, just as much as any increase in oil price intuitively is, something many here seem to be unaware of.


In the above text you said that any drop in price is tapered off when hedging. This is not the case in airline hedging.
This is only true when you hedge a speculation and take strike prices close to spot prices, usually used when short-selling stocks. The hedge caps your gain but the drop in stock price will be higher than the cost of the option.

Oh boy...


Back to topic: SN's result did not improve. They were stable in 2012-2013, but a drop in euro, jet fuel cost as well as a government bail-out has improved the result, which masks the underlying problem that SN is not turning around and will do worse in 2014, when Ryanair and TK mainly start to wrap around SN and starts crushing it. Will LH save it again or will SN go bankrupt?

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tolipanebas
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by tolipanebas »

I see that the atmosphere here is really good again, thanks to our resident nutcase?

I admire inquirer for trying to explain with sound reasoning where he's wrong, something which sadly isn't effective on flanker, I am afraid: 90 - 10 is roughly 30 for him: that says it all, doesn't it?

:roll:

Managed to find FIH on the map of Kin already, dude?

Lysexpat
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Joined: 31 May 2013, 11:44

Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Lysexpat »

A question for Inquirer:
As the airline has several fuel hedging contracts, some will be in the money. Would it show in the balance sheet if the airline sells these contracts to cover up bigger losses?

Flanker2
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Flanker2 »

Tempers will flare.
Not because I'm a bad analyst, but because people will have a hard time accepting that SN is dying.
They will find comfort in those who say otherwise, but does it help to be in denial?

How's the volume strategy working out Tolipanebas? How about JFK?
SN is even going to make a small profit in 2013... that's what Tolipanebas said in early 2013. :lol:
Maybe that's why we don't see too much of him lately.

Our SN fan boys have been saying for years that SN is going in the right path time and time again.
Beyond 2012-2013... they made it because the government swiped their start-up loans clean and are giving them a bail-out. LH gave them a short-term loan. Without that, it would have been game-over.

This time however, they have the same problems as they had in 2011, plus Ryanair and Turkish, no government loan to be forgiven and they barely made it to a bail-out. They got rid of a lot of people and are now operating on minimum staff, without room for cuts. Aging aircraft are becoming progressively unreliable and cost more and more to maintain.
The balance sheet of the holding company is insolvent and there is virtually no chance in my opinion that they will make a profit in 2014. I think that they could be happy if they don't post record losses.

Aren't you worried for your job Tolipanebas? If not, how do you see it play out over the coming years, how do you see SN turning around? SN miraculously beating Ryanair and kicking them out of BRU?

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Airbus330lover
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Airbus330lover »

Best solution : ignore function

airazurxtror
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by airazurxtror »

Flanker2 wrote: Our SN fan boys have been saying for years that SN is going in the right path time and time again.
Beyond 2012-2013... they made it because the government swiped their start-up loans clean and are giving them a bail-out. LH gave them a short-term loan. Without that, it would have been game-over.
This time however, they have the same problems as they had in 2011, plus Ryanair and Turkish, no government loan to be forgiven and they barely made it to a bail-out. They got rid of a lot of people and are now operating on minimum staff, without room for cuts. Aging aircraft are becoming progressively unreliable and cost more and more to maintain.
The balance sheet of the holding company is insolvent and there is virtually no chance in my opinion that they will make a profit in 2014. I think that they could be happy if they don't post record losses.
A good summing-up.
Keep up the good work, Flanker2 !
IF IT AIN'T BOEING, I'M NOT GOING.

sean1982
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by sean1982 »

sn26567 wrote:
sn26567 wrote:
teddybAIR wrote:Can we in 2014 try a little more to accept the fact that points of view can be different and that that very fact is why we can have interesting discussions?

Wise words that I strongly support, with the hope that all our readers will comply.
To extend on this, a picture that I got from Belgian tennis player Kirsten Flipkens
Image
And the first one to discuss the person is tolipanebas, no surprise there.
Respect has to come from both sides, something that some people choose to ignore here

JOVAN
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Joined: 08 Jun 2006, 00:00

Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by JOVAN »

airazurxtror wrote:
Flanker2 wrote: Our SN fan boys have been saying for years that SN is going in the right path time and time again.
Beyond 2012-2013... they made it because the government swiped their start-up loans clean and are giving them a bail-out. LH gave them a short-term loan. Without that, it would have been game-over.
This time however, they have the same problems as they had in 2011, plus Ryanair and Turkish, no government loan to be forgiven and they barely made it to a bail-out. They got rid of a lot of people and are now operating on minimum staff, without room for cuts. Aging aircraft are becoming progressively unreliable and cost more and more to maintain.
The balance sheet of the holding company is insolvent and there is virtually no chance in my opinion that they will make a profit in 2014. I think that they could be happy if they don't post record losses.
A good summing-up.
Keep up the good work, Flanker2 !
As most of us, I hope SN will survive and eventually grow again in the future.
I wish I could fly them more often, but apart from a few flights now and then, I am not their customer.

The service aboard is OK.

BUT the general impression is that this airline has no punch, no attraction, no spirit, no imagination, no schwung..... just Bloody Boring.

I am afraid that most foreign, potential customers think the same. A boring old fashioned company.
Thats why so few people transfer at BRU.

If they could just start thinking about how to fill their planes and make money.

A good and well balanced timetable is the first requirement.

As a business traveller I look first at convenience: interesting departure and arrival times, minimum waiting times. Then nice up to date facilities. Something like VIE, ZRH, DUS...

This SN management, just like BRU management is not going to make it.

I am afraid that for the next ten years SN will remain at less tha 5mio PAX (if they survive) and BRU will never reach 20mio PAX a year.

Put new people in both companies and work together to use the potential of BRU (central location, big catchment area, infrastructure, plenty of capacity, attractive cities, ...)

As you see, I try to discuss ideas, not people.....
But the problem is ..............the people at the top....

FLYAIR10
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by FLYAIR10 »

But the problem is ..............the people at the top....
Isn't Johnny Thijs available now,or very soon...? If he could turn around B-Post he might find a nice new challenge in pushing SN in a higher gear... Of course that would be a major "investment" for the company,but worthwile trying. Maybe Davignon should give him a call..if not yet done in the meantime...

FlightMate
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by FlightMate »

What I don't get is why LH, with their expertise, can't send a good ceo who will turn SN to profit?

Is it because they are a traditional company as well and can't/don't want to innovate?

Maybe the way for SN to survive is to be different. If they try to be like the others, they'll just remain a cheap (or expensive) copy. They'll never be as big as AF,KL,LH,BA, all surrounding them, anyway.

But if they want to remain a traditional airline, they need better service and lower cost (price) to compete.
That would start with younger fleet (fuel consumption/reliability) and lower taxes for employees. That's a start.

fcw
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by fcw »

FlightMate wrote:That would start with younger fleet (fuel consumption/reliability) and lower taxes for employees. That's a start.
They had a redution in taxes. During ten years BruAir has been exempted from paying contributions into the special pension fund for aircrew. They even deducted the empolyee contribution for the salaries and didn't pay it into the fund.
This led to end of the special pension fund two years ago...

JOVAN
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by JOVAN »

FLYAIR10 wrote:
But the problem is ..............the people at the top....
Isn't Johnny Thijs available now,or very soon...? If he could turn around B-Post he might find a nice new challenge in pushing SN in a higher gear... Of course that would be a major "investment" for the company,but worthwile trying. Maybe Davignon should give him a call..if not yet done in the meantime...

Not sure that is the right man; and anyway too expensive.

A good marketing guy is what is needed. And somebody who can make a close collaboration with BRU Airport work.
BRU, Airport of Brussels, Capital of Europe, should become something like Atlanta:

Atlanta is a Convention center. Airport is the biggest or second biggest of USA.

Before there were planes, Atlanta was already the HUB for Trains in the USA.

The slogan was

" Whether you you to Heaven or to Hell, you have to change trains (planes) in Atlanta "'

BRU can do, with SN being the motor.

Inquirer
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Inquirer »

Flanker2 wrote:You seemed to have a lot to say about my analysis, which was actually very conservative.
Actually sir, I did have very few to say about what you refer to as your analysis, for the simple reason I haven't seen much of that at all: what you post is in fact merely an opinion following some remarks which put this year's financial result at around -30M vs more than -90M last year.

As already pointed out be me and others, we don't know if we can even compare the 2 figures YTD, since not only is this year's figure not consolidated yet, let alone audited and officially confirmed, but also -and much more importantly- do we not know if it is an operational result even (like the one used for last year), or rather a net result. With such a volatile reference as context, one risks comparing apples with oranges.

Of course, we are perfectly free to give it a shot anyway and try to say something meaningful about the evolution, for instance by limiting ourselves to just a trend, but that's obviously not to your liking because the trend is indeed remarkably upwards and so I get the impression you did your very best to try to flatten down this trend again by seeking excuses of all sorts as to why it is what it really is, even to your eyes, all while ignoring setbacks (e.g. day long strikes) at the same time.

Believe me, people are no idiots and they will understand too that such a trend change can not be the result of managerial measures alone if that is what you wanted to say, but rather must be the combined result of both internal changes as well as macro-economic improvements which are obviously out of the hands of this company, but on the other hand: those macro-economic improvements are very real and do reflect in the financial results of brussels airlines just as much as any other improvements, just as they should in fact in those of all other airlines operating in the same environment. In this context it is thus interesting to note that despite this fact, some other airlines are still forced to post warnings of deteriorating operational results over the very same period, in exactly the same environment, so clearly the effect of the macro-economic factors should not be overrated, like you decided to do.
Flanker2 wrote:If SN benefited fully, their benefit would have been 30 million euro's or more (...) I issued a 10 million number.
So they are indeed heavily capped off, just as I told you; what exactly was the reason for all the smacktalk then, if not for the simple fact that somebody dared to put your conclusions into questioning?
As was already pointed out in a somewhat provocative way above (not by me): attributing most of an improvement of some 60M on macro-economical factors, while at the same time putting a figure of just 10M on the benefit from the lower fuel prices, is rather contradictory, don't you think?
Flanker2 wrote:You may have impressed many people... you impressed me by how many people you impressed with your nicely written texts that have no meaning. Have you considered a vocation as religious leader?
No I haven't, but if I would, I should probably already qualify to become a buddhist monk, given one needs to be really zen to take all the uncalled for insults from you and yet manage to take the high road, but I'll do so anyway and so I wish you, as well as all others reading along of course, a happy new year: may 2014 bring you a wider perspective, a softer tone and above all much less embitterment.

Duke
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Duke »

@ Flanker and Inquirer
Please guys, I mostly love to read your analyses...
But this discussion is heading way off topic...
I guess nobody is interested in your mutual verbal attacks...
Can this topic be closed, or at least be brought back on track?
Thanks,

Duke

Passenger
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Joined: 06 Dec 2010, 20:54

Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Passenger »

Duke wrote:@ Flanker and Inquirer
Please guys, I mostly love to read your analyses...
But this discussion is heading way off topic...
I guess nobody is interested in your mutual verbal attacks...
Can this topic be closed, or at least be brought back on track?
Thanks,
Duke
Actually, Inquirer is on topic.

LJ
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by LJ »

FlightMate wrote:What I don't get is why LH, with their expertise, can't send a good ceo who will turn SN to profit?
Because they don't own SN and have other airlines in the LH Group which need attention. Basically the worse it goes at SN the better for LH (as long as SN doesn't go bankrupt). In the end, the price LH will pay for the remainder will be lower (and they already took a big loss at their current stake).

Flanker2
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by Flanker2 »

FlightMate wrote:What I don't get is why LH, with their expertise, can't send a good ceo who will turn SN to profit?
I think that LH is thinking that BRU can never become a hub such as FRA, because of the small size of Belgium and low yields/more leisure-oriented market. This is also what makes Ryanair very strong in Belgium.

LH want to be proven wrong by SN, but have no idea how to turn it around themselves, because SN is already operating in a very similar configuration as LH.

To be successful and turn the company around, SN needs to stop being just another "regional airline with some longhaul routes".
Unfortunately, at this stage there is no money, no hope, no willingness, no idea's and no courage left to do it.
There is potential but as someone convinced me a few days ago when I said that FR could be in for a buy-out of SN, it would be just as easy if not easier to start from scratch.

LH's dilemma after the 2013 result will no longer be whether they will buy SN out, but whether they will bail them out at the next round of cash problems.

FlightMate
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Re: Brussels airlines future and financial perspective

Post by FlightMate »

Fcw, I know sn already had some tax rebate. But they need to compete with irish and middle east taxes.
Big companies in Belgium pay very little taxes on profit, but a lot for their employees.
As sn doesn't make money, they could be given a no-tax exemption on employees? But I guess that wouldn't be legal. Up to the government to make it legal, or up to the shareholders to delocalize the airline.

Or sn should aim at being different. And look at lucrative point to point long haul. Not only to and from bru, but from paris, munich, etc...?

Be different, or be better. Any alternative?

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