Swiss to decide on A340 replacement in 6-12 months

[Tomskii]

ugh why these q400's sure they are good for less crowded routes but I like to look and sit in anything other than a propellor powered pencil.

[RoMax]

According to information on the net, the CS100's will all be for Austrian/Tyrolean F70/F100 replacement.

Wish seems the most logicall, Fokker replacement for OS has to be ready by 2017, they can't wait too long (the Cseries is starting to get traction in the sales proces with some MoU's being firmed up recently). SN has to wait until LH owns them from 100% and SN will never commit to an order on their own.

LX is very stupid to go for B77W's now.

Let's state it like this. LX wants a bigger aircraft and something more efficient. Not some intermediate solution, but a mid to long term solution. The A346 is not efficient and not big enough for what they want (they are talking about 77W and even 748i). The A346 is 'too short term' solution, not efficient enough and not big enough... That leaves A350 (too far away) and 748i (too big for a reasonable fleet probably). A350 would be great for them, that aircraft family offers them a replacement from A333 up to something bigger than what they currently have, but it's too far away.
Than you have Boeing, they know they probably never sell any 737 to the LH Group again. The LH order for the 748i is nice, as well as the 777F order, but that's not enough to keep good relations with the biggest airline group of Europe. And guess what, Swiss wants an aircraft around the size of the 77W, it has to be efficient and not only good, also fast available (A351 talk is nice, but still YEARS away, 77W is still the most efficient in its category and will stay in that position for another 5-7 years until the A351 is past its teething problems). Than we have Swiss again, they want to replace some of their A343's but actually they are very difficult to sell. ... It wouldn't be the first time Boeing arranges a big/important order (6 77W's can hardly be called 'big', so important suits better) by taking over Airbus-widbodies or arranging some attractive deal with a lessor that will take the old Airbus-aircraft (a much more attractive deal than what the airline could do on their own).

But it goes WAY beyond that. If Boeing succeeds to push the 77W in the LH Group, they open the door for the 777-9X in the LH Group. The A351 will be the most efficient in its category, better than the 77W. But the -9X will be a class on its own, it will have a better payload capability and it will be the perfect bridge between the smaller A350's/787's and the much bigger A380 (and basicly killing the 748i, but with or without -9X, Boeing will never sell loads of them anyway, the -9X on the other hand).

I don't think Swiss/Lufthansa is going to pay a lot for these 6 77W's (especially if they include a deal for a part of the A343's)... Boeing is becoming VERY aggressive to take some marketshare back you know. They are full speed going after easyJet for example and early this week easyJet said they consider to shift to Boeing again if Boeing comes up with a very good deal, that includes a partly coverage of the costs easyJet will make during the transition of Airbus to Boeing. Basicly they ask the same deal of Boeing as they got from Airbus about a decade ago. And after Boeing lost some important customers (Pegasus to name one, American (partly) to name a big one,...) they are really committed to get som big customers at their side again. And that goes for the LH Group as well (altough for widebody only tough). And not to forget, Boeing is getting into a position where they have more attractive production slots, both for the NG as the MAX. Boeing has a bigger period to back up between now and the start of MAX production than Airbus with the NEO. Eventually they'll give them away for free with some suitcases filled with money in the cargohold if they have to do that to keep the production running. On the widebody side it's not that serious yet, but for sure they can make some very attractive deals for airlines like LH/LX/OS.

[tolipanebas]

Bloomberg announces the deal will be for:

* 100 A320s, of which 70NEOs and 30 with the current engine option
* 6 777-3ERs for subsidiary SWISS
* 2 A380s for Lufthansa mainline

The order makes Lufthansa the biggest customer of Airbus worldwide.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-1 ... ogram.html

[RoMax]

Great for both Airbus and Boeing. Finally they get some serious ground in the LH Group with their 777-program. While Airbus gets a nice follow up order for their A320 series (both classic and neo) and the A380.

[tolipanebas]

Great for both Airbus and Boeing. Finally they get some serious ground in the LH Group with their 777-program. While Airbus gets a nice follow up order for their A320 series (both classic and neo) and the A380.

Who is 'they'? Boeing?

Mind you, LH has ordered 77Fs already (for its cargo joint venture Aerologic) and it has ordered 77Fs for its own cargo operatons too not too long ago, so it's not such a big deal really for them to order a modest number of additional planes for yet another subsidiary of theirs, given the urgency.

Indeed, LX needs bigger planes than their A340-300s asap for certain destinations (GRU, BKK and JFK, hence the number of 6) and while the A346 is out of production, the A350 is still years away, so the 777 is the only realistic option to expand capacity on those routes.

The pack of 100 A320s are for several subsidiaries too: too bad they haven't split it out in more detail yet.

[Zorba]

Video of a SWISS B777:

[RoMax]

Who is 'they'? Boeing?

Mind you, LH has ordered 77Fs already (for its cargo joint venture Aerologic) and it has ordered 77Fs for its own cargo operatons too not too long ago, so it's not such a big deal really for them to order a modest number of additional planes for yet another subsidiary of theirs, given the urgency.

I mean Boeing indeed. And yes they have the 77F on order and the 772ER in Austrian's fleet. But that's still something different than ordering the 77W. I don't see this as a simple 77W order (Swiss indeed had no other choice really, except for the ineffecient A346's), this opens the door to the 777X in the LH Group. If they are happy with the 77W, that increases the chances of future 777X orders. The A350 and 777X can be next to eachother in the LH Group fleet(the -9X is bigger than the A350-1000, and tough it's getting very close to the 748i, there remains a gap of about 40-50(?) seats). Don't say that's going to happen, but it increases the chances.

So...great news for both (even if it will stay with 6 77W's it's good news for Boeing as well, it's not that common for Boeing to get Lufthansa-orders, if you compare it to what it once was).

[tolipanebas]

Who is 'they'? Boeing?

Mind you, LH has ordered 77Fs already (for its cargo joint venture Aerologic) and it has ordered 77Fs for its own cargo operatons too not too long ago, so it's not such a big deal really for them to order a modest number of additional planes for yet another subsidiary of theirs, given the urgency.

I mean Boeing indeed. And yes they have the 77F on order and the 772ER in Austrian's fleet. But that's still something different than ordering the 77W. I don't see this as a simple 77W order (Swiss indeed had no other choice really, except for the ineffecient A346's), this opens the door to the 777X in the LH Group. If they are happy with the 77W, that increases the chances of future 777X orders. The A350 and 777X can be next to eachother in the LH Group fleet(the -9X is bigger than the A350-1000, and tough it's getting very close to the 748i, there remains a gap of about 40-50(?) seats). Don't say that's going to happen, but it increases the chances.

So...great news for both (even if it will stay with 6 77W's it's good news for Boeing as well, it's not that common for Boeing to get Lufthansa-orders, if you compare it to what it once was).

As said: LH has ordered the 777 for no less than 2 subsidiaries in the recent past because it suits their needs best (and I am not talking about the inherited OS fleet here), so I really fail to see what's so special about this top up order -albeit this time for the -3ER version- as it is clear it's the right plane for LX's high demand routes at present?

Okay, as a passenger, you don't come close to freight planes and thus they are often forgotten about, but they are very well integrated in the group's fleet planning you know? If there's one thing to remember from LH's order history, then it is they do not care much about tradition or loyalty in se and will order based on facts and figures, thus often leading them to orders which contain surprises (77W for LX, 748i for LH etc). Indeed, LH simply looks at the capacity needs and tries to match it with planes which best suits them, as this order has once again shown.

Trying to read the future from past LH orders is really just a waste of time, believe me: it's like trying to predict tomorrow's weather not by looking at the weather charts, but looking out of the window at today's weather. Nice to fill hundreds of pages on A.net with good reasons pro or con with, but with a 50% change of being proven wrong nevertheless. Given the binary aspect of it all, that's not really proof of spectacular insight by those posting there, is it?

[RoMax]

As said: LH has ordered the 777 for no less than 2 subsidiaries in the recent past because it suits their needs best (and I am not talking about the inherited OS fleet here), so I really fail to see what's so special about this top up order -albeit this time for the -3ER version- as it is clear it's the right plane for LX's high demand routes at present?

Okay, as a passenger, you don't come close to freight planes and thus they are often forgotten about, but they are very well integrated in the group's fleet planning you know? If there's one thing to remember from LH's order history, then it is they do not care much about tradition or loyalty in se and will order based on facts and figures, thus often leading them to orders which contain surprises (77W for LX, 748i for LH etc). Indeed, LH simply looks at the capacity needs and tries to match it with planes which best suits them, as this order has once again shown.

In my opinion an order for a pax aircraft is totally different to a freight aircraft... What they order for the freight department has close to zero relation to the pax department.
It's not special they order the 77W as it's the only aircraft around that suits their needs. Keep in mind Lufthansa commented some years ago they would never order the 77W because they are committed to the A346 (they even admitted that may haveg been a mistake to order the A346 instead of the 77W, but by the time the realised that, it was already too late).

Trying to read the future from past LH orders is really just a waste of time, believe me: it's like trying to predict tomorrow's weather not by looking at the weather charts, but looking out of the window at today's weather. Nice to fill hundreds of pages on A.net with good reasons pro or con with, but with a 50% change of being proven wrong nevertheless. Given the binary aspect of it all, that's not really proof of spectacular insight by those posting there, is it?

I must say I don't follow these a.net topics with hundreds of posts of which I only find maybe 10 of them interesting. I haven't read anything on a.net about these latest LH-orders.

It's just my own honest opinion that I believe this increases the chances of the 777X in LH Group's future fleet. I'm quite sure Boeing made a kind of deal which makes it very easy/cheap for LH to order to 777X. Lufthansa wouldn't place this order without getting a very good deal and you can be sure Boeing wants more than just these 6 777-pax aircraft.

[sn26567]

Bloomberg announces the deal will be for:

* 100 A320s, of which 70NEOs and 30 with the current engine option
...

As I understand, it is a firm order for 30 A320ceo aircraft, and the authorisation for the board to continue negotiations for 70 A320neo and A321neo aircraft.

[tolipanebas]

It's just my own honest opinion that I believe this increases the chances of the 777X in LH Group's future fleet.

Nope, the reality of the day is the chances for that remain completely unchanged.
LH simply looks at its needs and will always try to select the best suited planes to cover them, period.
In fact, it has just demonstrated to do so by ordering what are in your view 'odd' 773ERs for LX and it will do exactly the same in due time again, if needed. By your logic, the 773ER didn't stand much of a chance to be ordered then, did it? Whereas it was clear from the onset it was a 100% certainty for LX, given it was the only option to fill an urgent need. See what I mean?

I'm quite sure Boeing made a kind of deal which makes it very easy/cheap for LH to order to 777X. Lufthansa wouldn't place this order without getting a very good deal and you can be sure Boeing wants more than just these 6 777-pax aircraft.

You may be quite sure, but Boeing's board hasn't allowed its salesmen to offer the 77X to customers yet...

However, don't forget Boeing has LH as one of its few 748i customers, a plane which overlaps much of the segment the 77X will be aimed at: that plane may very will hinder any sales campaign of the 77X at LH in future. One really wonders why they spent any money and time on that plane: it's clearly the version too many of the pax jumbo.

[RoMax]

You may be quite sure, but Boeing's board hasn't allowed its salesmen to offer the 77X to customers yet...

They can't sign 'firm' contracts (with firm contracts in this meaning, I also mean MoU's for example) no, but Emirates for example has a clausule in their latest 77W order contract that allows them to convert current 77W orders into 777X orders once it gets launched.

LH simply looks at its needs and will always try to select the best suited planes to cover them, period.

If the 77W proves itself in LX's fleet, they will have much more thrust in the aircraft, increasing the chances of the 777X also having a place in the fleet of the LH Group.

By your logic, the 773ER didn't stand much of a chance to be ordered then, did it? Whereas it was clear from the onset it was a 100% certainty for LX, given it was the only option to fill an urgent need.

If you have read my previous posts in this topic, you would know I always believed the 77W would be it for LX as from the moment they announced they would replace their a part of their A343 fleet with new aircraft (excluding the A346). Which doesn't change the fact that many people don't see this as the most normal decision (again, LH said some years ago they would never order the 77W as it would be too late for them to order it, and yes they were talking about the whole group). It's a rather strange, small subfleet in a full Airbus-fleet.

However, don't forget Boeing has LH as one of its few 748i customers, a plane which overlaps much of the segment the 77X will be aimed at: that plane may very will hinder any sales campaign of the 77X at LH in future. One really wonders why they spent any money and time on that plane: it's clearly the version too many of the pax jumbo.

The 777-9X will still fall short on the 748i, but indeed, it will come close and will probably kill the 748i-case. If they (LH) want to stay away from the 748i, they can still order the -8X (the one Emirates preferes for most of it's -300ER replacement).

Anyway, I don't think we can fully agree on this. I just have the idea this order increases the chances of the 777X against the A350 (the A350-1000) in the LH Group. If this LX-order never happened, I wouldn't ever have tought about the 777X in the LH Group fleet. Without this order, I wouldn't have expected them to look beyond the 787-10 and the A350-family.
But well, that's maybe just me.

[tolipanebas]

If the 77W proves itself in LX's fleet, they will have much more thrust in the aircraft, increasing the chances of the 777X also having a place in the fleet of the LH Group.

But again, they needn't have LX operating it first for that.
LH has tons of operational data and experience from their cargo branch(es) on the actual day-to-day performance of recently build T7s: it's really all the same whether the payload is cargo of pax, for numbercrunchers, you know?

It's a rather strange, small subfleet in a full Airbus-fleet.

Again, it's not such an odd bird at all: there are (and will be) tons of T7s flying within the LH Group already, notably at the cargo branches...
For Lufthansa Technik as well for instance, it's pretty much all the same whether the plane carries cargo or pax as payload during its useful life.

In short, it's only an small subfleet if you decide to forget about a significant portion of the company.
If you don't, it's no big deal, just a modest follow up order to cover an urgent need.
Besides, LH has a huge medium haul airbus fleet, but on long haul, they are far less loyal to Airbus: think about their very recent 748i and 77F orders for instance.

Anyway, I don't think we can fully agree on this. I just have the idea this order increases the chances of the 777X against the A350 (the A350-1000) in the LH Group. If this LX-order never happened, I wouldn't ever have tought about the 777X in the LH Group fleet. Without this order, I wouldn't have expected them to look beyond the 787-10 and the A350-family.
But well, that's maybe just me.

Well, your previous login name wasn't Mr_Boeing for nothing, was it?
If LH orders the 77X in future, it will not be because of this modest follow up order for LX, but because it thinks there's a genuine need for a plane that size within their fleet which can not be matched better by another plane, period.

[RoMax]

Well, your previous login name wasn't Mr_Boeing for nothing, was it?

Yes, but it's not for nothing that I asked to change that name (btw it was MR_Boeing, not Mr as in 'Mister'). Back in summer 2009 I might have prefered Airbus to go bankrupt, my idea on that changed quite a bit since than. Yes I still have a personal preference for Boeing, but it's not that I would want an airline to buy Boeing while Airbus would really be the better choice or something like that.
So that's why I said, I never expected any new 777-pax orders from the LH Group (until they announced LX was looking at a fast, but new replacement for a part of their A343-fleet!).

[RoMax]

Btw, a bit unrelatad to the discussion above. But Lufthansa will also announce a bigger order for long haul aircraft in the second half of this year. It will be in the A333/A343 and A346 size market (so 787 and/or A350). No additional orders in the A380/748i size are planned in the near future.

They are also looking at the future of the 70-seat aircraft in the group (Air Dolomiti and Lufthansa Regional). They may decide in the near term on a bigger replacement for these aircraft (after they already decided to retire the 50-seat aircraft years ago).
Like in America (Delta, American, United,... all replace parts of the 50/70-seater fleet with bigger aircraft), the trend is going towards bigger regional aircraft.

[Flanker2]

Romax, regarding the B777 "sweet deal".

LX could have gotten the A350XWB around 2018. Holding off until then would have been worthwhile since the XWB will feature huge fuel savings over the B77W.
If the XWB saves 20% of fuel over the much heavier B77W, over 100.000 hours of operations, at 7-8 tonnes per hour, at 1000$/ton, the total lifecycle fuel cost is around 150 millions higher on the B77W.

So if LX bought a A350XWB for $150 million, which is the going rate for smaller orders, to achieve the same costs with the B77W, you would need to get it for free.

LH would have been better off selling the A343's to Airbus, and ordering the XWB's with a larger order.

LH's weird widebody fleeting policies is costing them dearly. They should have bought the B77W back then instead of the A346. What did they need the B748i for when they already have A380's? If LH would have ordered 40 A380's instead of 20 A380's + 20 B748i's, they could have slowed down the growth of arch rival EK by huge amounts and allocated a few frames to LX as well (SQ flies to ZRH with A380).

LH trips over a dollar to pick up a penny, time and time again.

[crew1990]

Could one or two of those A340 join the fleet of SN? I remember the time Olympic was selling their plane that SN was interested in their A340.

I know that the maintenant are more expensive than the A330 however SN need more long haul A/C and the A340 is quite similar with the A330 for the crew.

[RoMax]

LX could have gotten the A350XWB around 2018. Holding off until then would have been worthwhile since the XWB will feature huge fuel savings over the B77W.
If the XWB saves 20% of fuel over the much heavier B77W, over 100.000 hours of operations, at 7-8 tonnes per hour, at 1000$/ton, the total lifecycle fuel cost is around 150 millions higher on the B77W.

So if LX bought a A350XWB for $150 million, which is the going rate for smaller orders, to achieve the same costs with the B77W, you would need to get it for free.

Not if they got a nice deal on these 777's. Either they use them as an intermediate solution (they will still have quite some value when they resell them or return them to the lease company) and they go for the A350 afterwards. Or they got a good deal that enables them to buy the 777X family. The -9X will be in a new class (bigger than the A350-1000, smaller than the 748i), the -8X will be a bit simular to the -300ER (Emirates says they prefer the -8X as -300ER replacement, and yes they also have the A350-1000, but they see this one more as a -300 replacement).

LH's weird widebody fleeting policies is costing them dearly. They should have bought the B77W back then instead of the A346. What did they need the B748i for when they already have A380's? If LH would have ordered 40 A380's instead of 20 A380's + 20 B748i's, they could have slowed down the growth of arch rival EK by huge amounts and allocated a few frames to LX as well (SQ flies to ZRH with A380).

Lufthansa commented on that some years ago. They went for the A342/A343 largely because of political pressure and that was back then the better choice than the original 777 version. Because of that (and also partly because of political pressure) they continued with the A346. But they said that was indeed a mistake and when they realised it, it was too late to order the 77W. If they had the 77W, they wouldn't have bought the 748i either (that's not what I say, that's what the previous LH ceo said).

About having the 748i and A380, they will not be the only one, also Korean Air will have both. When you look at LH's configurations, the A380 has 8 first class seats, 98 C class and 420 in economy (that's a total of 526). They have two conf. for the 748i: both have 8 F seats, either 92 or 80 C class seats and 262 or 298 seats in economy. That makes either 362 or 386 seats. Compared to the A380, they are quite similar in the premium part of the cabin (a bit less C class in the 748i), but they totally serve a different market size in economy. There's a difference of 120-160 seats, so if you serve so many different kind of markets, you can easily use both. If they had the 77W instead of the A346, it wouldn't be needed, but the gap between the A346 (306 seats, of which 8 F seats and 60 C seats) and the A380 is way too big for Lufthansa. But yes I agree they did make some serious mistakes in the past (and they admit it). I believe LH's fleet choice had been even more influenced than that of Air France (which is a very happy 777-user) by political pressure. Both countries still interfere when these airlines place big orders (remember the anger of the French politics when they ordered the 787/A350... instead of A350 only). But luckely, the latest years, Lufthansa simply seems to go what's suits them best.