SN long haul flight. What next?

[Air Key West]

The main snag is that, if I remember well, Gustin very recently said that b.air will add one long-haul aircraft per year. This is difficult for many of us to understand, especially given that b.air says that long-haul flights bring in the money tha airline needs to survive. Oneof the problems may be to find additional appropriate long-haul aricraft and finding the money to launch new operations. I have a doubt about expanding a lot to North-America, since it is generally known to be a low yield market.

If 9W leaves BRU, their trafic between India and North=America will go through CDG and AUH. There will be no vaccum. Would direct flights between BRU and India be justified (enough O&D and connecting pax ?).
Let's not forget that LH considers very much India as being its own preserve or "private" turf. I'm not sure they would let b.air fly to India. And is it still planned for Air India to fly to MUC ?

My message to b.air would be : try to add two additional long-haul aircraft per year,
add an evening flight to NYC,
increase some frequencies (even perhaps destinations) to AFI,
swap YUL with AC which could operate a nonstop flight from/to Toronto instead,
and finally I'll come back to my favorite argument : fly to Rio and GRU. Brasil is a booming market and still not strictly low yield.

[Stij]

I don't think SN will venture into any route that requires more than 1 additional aircraft to operate on a daily basis, except maybe for IAH or SFO which can be combined with many existing routes that need less than 24h days for a rotation. A second ORD rotation also seems to be a no brainer.

Actually most destiantions can be operated in such a way that you combine a "short" long haul such as US East Coast or West Africa with a "long" long haul. LIM, NRT, SAO, RIO, ICN, SFO, LAX, PVG. JNB, CPT, BKK and KUL are operated that way by KLM. SIN and BUE are over the hill for this system.

As long as you have enough "short" long hauls and a reliable fleet, you can do a lot!

Kind regards,

Stij

[sn26567]

Let's not forget that LH considers very much India as being its own preserve or "private" turf. I'm not sure they would let b.air fly to India.

Remember Sabena under Swissair: Swissair had kept Mumbai and Delhi, and had left Madras (Chennai) to Sabena (by A340). Why couldn't LH handle the Indian market similarly?

[cnc]

Actually most destiantions can be operated in such a way that you combine a "short" long haul such as US East Coast or West Africa with a "long" long haul. LIM, NRT, SAO, RIO, ICN, SFO, LAX, PVG. JNB, CPT, BKK and KUL are operated that way by KLM. SIN and BUE are over the hill for this system.

As long as you have enough "short" long hauls and a reliable fleet, you can do a lot!

Kind regards,

Stij

why would you even start to compare SN with the old sabena or KLM? They have much more flexibility operation wise.
I suggest you apply for a position at SN's OCC if you are so sure

[RoMax]

Let's not forget that LH considers very much India as being its own preserve or "private" turf. I'm not sure they would let b.air fly to India.

Remember Sabena under Swissair: Swissair had kept Mumbai and Delhi, and had left Madras (Chennai) to Sabena (by A340). Why couldn't LH handle the Indian market similarly?

LH is being restricted in what they do in India, especially as AI is not allowed in Star Alliance. They want to fly A380's to India, but are not allowed, neither new frequenties are being approved. If this continues, LH may start to use OS or LX or SN to add capacity to India, at least if India allows that to happen.
I'm quite sure there's demand for at least one non-stop connection to/from India (connecting with Air India in India if 9W goes the other way). They can always run away from it, but this market is booming and we are aproaching a time when thousands, no millions, of people will reach the economic level which allows them to travel and it would be a pitty if SN/BRU loses all that to surrounding airports (look at IAD, even with a non-stop flight of UA, they lost a big part of the high yield O&D market to LHR and FRA because of the lack of an evening flight, now SN is going to take back what "belongs" to them).
But this will fully depend on what LH wants and what India allows.

For now the focus is on North-America and Africa.

About adding just one aircraft per year. That was said for 2013 and 2014, but if something unusual happens (like 9W pulling back from BRU or great, unexpected succes on the current long haul routes), maybe they'll change their plans. In aviation nothing is certain.

[Air Key West]

Yes, most of what you say is very relevant. Things can change quickly sometimes. If 9W joins Skyteam on account of their close co-operation with AF, LH will want AI in Star, because they'll want an Indian partner.
If/when AI joins Star or the membership procedure is re-opened, India might lift or relax the current restrictions it is imposing on LH which might then send A380s to India. But this is, of course, simply an assumption.
Let's hope the new flight to IAD is a success and that it will encourage b.air to extend its long-haul network more quickly.

[Stij]

why would you even start to compare SN with the old sabena or KLM? They have much more flexibility operation wise.
I suggest you apply for a position at SN's OCC if you are so sure

Woooooow, big fella, take it easy... I'm just saying it's possible. Of course it's more complicated than that.

However, when Sabena started the NRT JFK combination I think the fleet was 4 333, 2 342, 2 343 and 2 743. So, not much more flexibility than BruAir's 8 330 fleet. Feel free to correct me though, this is out of my memory.

Cheers,

Stij

BTW I have enough problems around my head for NOT becoming OCC and BruAir.

[A330]

I agree it would be nice to see SN fly to destinations like NRT, HKG, GRU, GIG, DEL, BOM. But personally I don't see this happening that soon. I guess their focus will remain on America and Africa first. And with only 1 plane per year, that will take some time.
In North-America I'm expecting destinations like YUL (depending on AC, and 9W), JFK (evening flight, or perhaps EWR), BOS, and perhaps ORD. SN serving these would already be a great network. SFO seems like a long shot, I think IAH is something for UA.
If IAD works out fine, I see an evening flight to JFK (or EWR if they prefer the connections to/from UA) as next. Both allow SN to feed their 2pm wave to Africa, and expand that.
With currently 6 daily departures to Africa (more or less), they should add more flights to both departure times.
What new destinations are possible (next to gradually increasing frequencies)? Bamako might come back at some point, but not very soon. Dar Es Salaam is LX territory, no? What about cities like Niamey, N'Djamena, Brazzaville, Libreville (already served by LH), Pointe Noire, Port Gentil, Lusaka?
But they should be looking at these, or otherwise venture into the competitive markets of Nigeria (LOS) or South-Africa (JNB). Less likely?

[quixoticguide]

YUL would be a good idea.

I don't think india will be a good idea. To many Gulfcarriers flying to India.

HND will be great but you need more than one A332.

in Africa maybe CPT?

[FLYAIR10]

Re: After JFK and Washington, which new destination for SN n
by b-west » Today, 09:29

Shoot, they're always too late for me. Last year my holiday took me to NY, 1 month or so before SN started their flights, this year I'm going to the west coast but would love to visit some friends in Washington, again, 1 month before the new flight

Where's your next year's holiday ? Chicago , Montreal or ...Miami? .. we'll let SN know.

My favourite next SN destination: Sao Paulo. We'll need non-stop capacity on that route,especially in 2014 when our Red Devils qualify for the Soccer World Championship... But also for business. Our company has 2 plants over there. we could use a direct link from BRU ,both for PAX aswell as for Cargo..
If SN doesn't seize the opportunity ,it could be JAF.

Same for San Juan,Puerto rico btw.Triangle flights possible via Miami? BRU-MIA-SJU-BRU or alternatively in opposite direction.Both Leisure+Business , aswell as cargo (fm/to SJU but also MIA)
Grtz..

[Air Key West]

My favourite next SN destination: Sao Paulo

At last, at least one member who agrees with me

b.air's focus is now clearly and rightly so on Africa and the US, but when it would come to destinations in other part of world, I have said repetedly that Brazil should be the next priority. Brazil really has a booming economy, the Brazilian middle-class has money to spend to travel abroad. That applies mainly (but not exclusively to Sao Paulo).
In addtion, Rio will host the Soccer World Championship in 2014 and the Olympic Games in 2016.
Furthermore, if/when TAM leaves Star Alliance, Star could use some new capacity between Europe and Brazil.

[crew1990]

Actually, if TAP left star alliance one day, it would be nice for SN to fly to Sao Paulo indeed.

[OO-ITR]

My favourite next SN destination: Sao Paulo

At last, at least one member who agrees with me
.

We are 3

[RoMax]

Actually, if TAP left star alliance one day, it would be nice for SN to fly to Sao Paulo indeed.

TAP has not the "exclusive right" in Europe to operate the Star-routes between Europe and Brasil. LH and LX are active out of FRA, MUC and ZRH to Sao Paulo and LH also to Rio (from FRA) as well. Just as India and China (and some smaller Asian markets) Brazil is indeed growing very fast. Airlines from all over the world will start to pick in at Sao Paulo and Rio, so for sure SN has to look at it. This is a market that will become way too big, just to be handled by 2 or 3 Star carriers out of Europe, Skyteam and Oneworld will win the battle in that case.

But the same goes for India and China. Yes there's is a lot of competition to India, but you can't always run away from it. India will become a huge market, such a huge market that it's not only up to the few big ones and the Gulf carriers to exploit that market.

But again, for the comming 3-5 years they should look at Africa and North-America with destinations like BOS, YUL, ORD, SFO, evening flight EWR/JFK,... and rely on partners for markets like Thailand, China, India (tough I'm still convinced that IF 9W would leave, SN should be able to operate at least 4/week to one daily to India), ... for Asia. And Brazil...that should come somewhere in between I should say.

[nordikcam]

We are 4

[ezis]

I was wondering, very hypothetical of course and all we say here is of little interest, but wouldn't Rio make more sense than Sao Paulo right now?
Everybody (as good as) already flies to Sao Paulo, which is not the case for Rio.
Plus with all the events indeed coming up.

Of course i just try to be logical, without being an expert here

And I also wondered about the next 'Asian Tiger', all the Asian carriers are increasing their capacity there, while only 1 European carrier entered recently; Condor.

[b720]

add to the above that the brazilian offshore oil is off RIO. and most oil companies are setting shop in Rio..
I agree that Brazil must be the focus.. both sao Paolo and Rio. along with an evening flight to JFK.
Moscow should get more flights, or at least upgraded comfort in the cabin.

[crew1990]

A question a bit off topic the long haul a/c land very early in the early and the new flight to washington take off late in the afternoon.

Could we have a A330 to Tel Aviv it would be better for the bussiness traveler.

The A/C could make like BRU-Africa-BRU-Tel Aviv-BRU-Washinton-BRU

Just an idea

[quixoticguide]

Actually, if TAP left star alliance one day, it would be nice for SN to fly to Sao Paulo indeed.

TAP has not the "exclusive right" in Europe to operate the Star-routes between Europe and Brasil. LH and LX are active out of FRA, MUC and ZRH to Sao Paulo and LH also to Rio (from FRA) as well. Just as India and China (and some smaller Asian markets) Brazil is indeed growing very fast. Airlines from all over the world will start to pick in at Sao Paulo and Rio, so for sure SN has to look at it. This is a market that will become way too big, just to be handled by 2 or 3 Star carriers out of Europe, Skyteam and Oneworld will win the battle in that case.

But the same goes for India and China. Yes there's is a lot of competition to India, but you can't always run away from it. India will become a huge market, such a huge market that it's not only up to the few big ones and the Gulf carriers to exploit that market.

But again, for the comming 3-5 years they should look at Africa and North-America with destinations like BOS, YUL, ORD, SFO, evening flight EWR/JFK,... and rely on partners for markets like Thailand, China, India (tough I'm still convinced that IF 9W would leave, SN should be able to operate at least 4/week to one daily to India), ... for Asia. And Brazil...that should come somewhere in between I should say.

They can go to SSA (Salvador de Bahia in Brazil) also the most African city in Brazil

[Wohowbagger]

My favourite next SN destination: Sao Paulo

At last, at least one member who agrees with me
.

We are 3

We are 4

Second, I mean 5th that

1: NYC evening flight
2: increase frequency (& capacity) from/to AFI (JNB?)
3: SN from/to YUL, AC from/to YYZ
4: look at the BRIC countries. SN serves Moscow, but no direct BRU flights from/to Brazil, and only 1 from/to China, and (for now) daily India. So what about GRU, GIG, HKG, SIN, MFM, CKG, PVG, TPE?