Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

[Inquirer]

Your theory is interesting but it doesn't hold.

The weird thing is, I didn't even put forward any theory at all; you did!

Remember it was YOU who came up with some out of context raw data from the annual report of Lufthansa as proof of a some rather naive statement to conclude that first post of yours with, something I tried to check by analytical quantification of the potential profit on the extra revenues generated since lufthansa took an equity stake in B.air and I think I managed to disprove you statement fairly well by simply analysing the data you've provided yourself. Mind you, note how I only touched one side of the equation so far: the other one (i.e. the albeit smaller reverse cash flow from LH to SN) was kept out, and that was actually still in your favour then, yet even without this side of the equation, it's clear you have no case to make!

And then, rather than accept the conclusion or debate it in an intellectual way with more facts and figures, something utterly strange happened of which I am still wondering what it is all about: you suddenly started asking all sort of completely unrelated and often even totally incomprehensible and poorly phrased questions, after which you basically started arguing with those very same questions you first put forward yourself, as if somehow I asked you any of those questions????

I hope you dont mind me asking, but is there some medical problem with you, maybe?
I know that if somebody in my family would start behaving as you did there, right in the middle of a rather "normal" discussion, I'd be very worried about his mental state.

Or is the claim by others true: that each time you loose a discussion, you immediately try to turn the topic and if the other party doesn't play along with this trick by ignoring all of your sidesteps and simply focussing on the essence of the discussion, you simply clutter the page with total and complete nonsense, hoping everybody wil just give in in total despair and thus not read anymore how you were shown wrong?

Just to summarise: YOU came with an accusation which I managed fairly easy to disprove; never during this discussion have I presented any single theory of mine, nor have I made any comment related to fleet composition, routes or strategies...I sticked to YOUR facts... And your fact alone.... And you.... Well, you seem to be just talking incomprehensible nonsense in response ever since.

[VEX802]

Yesterday I heard a rumor that Brussels Airlines would take over Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium, or at least a part of their fleet? Does somebody has more info about this rumor? This person also said that they would return the Avro's from Korongo back to Brussels because they were unbable to fly properly in Africa. Instead they would send one/more Airbusses to Lubumbashi. BTW, nice powerpoint presentation of the inaugural flight of Korongo!

[tolipanebas]

rather than accept the conclusion or debate it in an intellectual way with more facts and figures, something utterly strange happened of which I am still wondering what it is all about: you suddenly started asking all sort of completely unrelated and often even totally incomprehensible and poorly phrased questions, after which you basically started arguing with those very same questions you first put forward yourself, as if somehow I asked you any of those questions????

That is a fairly normal summary of a standard discussion with NCB, where he's lost the point as he so often does. Either that or swearing and name calling, you pick it.

So glad I didn't have to read his posts; from yours I can pretty much make up how brilliant he was once more... how do you keep up with it?

Or is the claim by others true: that each time you loose a discussion, you immediately try to turn the topic and if the other party doesn't play along with this trick by ignoring all of your sidesteps and simply focussing on the essence of the discussion, you simply clutter the page with total and complete nonsense, hoping everybody wil just give in in total despair and thus not read anymore how you were shown wrong?

Indeed; well spotted....
Hence half the website having him on the foe list....

....you seem to be just talking incomprehensible nonsense in response ever since.

He has been doing that on regular intervals since long you know?

Yesterday I heard a rumor that Brussels Airlines would take over Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium, or at least a part of their fleet? Does somebody has more info about this rumor? This person also said that they would return the Avro's from Korongo back to Brussels because they were unbable to fly properly in Africa. Instead they would send one/more Airbusses to Lubumbashi. BTW, nice powerpoint presentation of the inaugural flight of Korongo!

There are some SN flight crews doing type conversion at TC, but from there to actually merging/taking over....

Those 737s will indeed most likely be replaced by A32F over time, as it doesn't make much sense to operate a few of them in DRC when there aren't any around here in BRU... As to the Bae146: those are pretty lousy on long runs, but will be great on the short hops... Don't think they'll be going.
Anyway, the airline has been flying for less than a week, and the first rumour about fleet renewal already pops up! That must be a world record?

[HighInTheSky]

Yesterday I heard a rumor that Brussels Airlines would take over Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium, or at least a part of their fleet? Does somebody has more info about this rumor? This person also said that they would return the Avro's from Korongo back to Brussels because they were unbable to fly properly in Africa. Instead they would send one/more Airbusses to Lubumbashi. BTW, nice powerpoint presentation of the inaugural flight of Korongo!

Never heard any of this before... And don't think that there is money nor willpower to take over any company at the moment

[EBAW_flyer]

Maybe jetairfly could take over Brussels Airlines? They are the only Belgian carrier doing well

[flightlover]

Don't forget TC.

It's not because TC Ltd is doing bad that all subsidiaries are also. TC Belgium is doing fine. They have increased their customer base and revenue. And most important are making profit.

[tolipanebas]

Let's not forget that the majority of their customers are holiday makers on package holidays and so the accounted revenues of charter airlines like Thomas Cook are artificially determined by arbitrary splitting out the total package price over both the airline and the tour operator.

In such a context of predetermined revenue levels, it is rather pointless to talk about the individual profitability of just part of such a heavily interwoven activity, like for instance charter airlines belonging to package tour operators.

But back to topic: it's most probably just a rumour indeed as I don't see much synergies possible.

[Passenger]

Let's not forget that the majority of their customers are holiday makers on package holidays and so the accounted revenues of charter airlines like Thomas Cook are artificially determined by arbitrary splitting out the total package price over both the airline and the tour operator.

In such a context of predetermined revenue levels, it is rather pointless to talk about the individual profitability of part of such a heavily interwoven activity, like for instance the airline.

But back to topic: it's most probably just a rumour indeed as I don't see much synergies possible.

Indeed. They will not give up their airline, as this vertical integration allows them to hold 100% control of their holiday packages.

They've realized a nice 2011, I've been told. Another year with some 20 mio Euro profit.

[sn26567]

It's most probably just a rumour indeed as I don't see much synergies possible.

There are at leats synergies with the charter business of Brussels Airlines, e.g. the flights for Club Med.

[azingrew]

nobody seems to be aware that Neckerman Belgium is doing very badly and I can tell you from a reliable source that a restructure is on the agenda. Since Neckerman is the main provider of passenger for Thomas Cook, I don't think TC airline's future looks very bright.

[euroflyer]

by the way the same situation in Germany ... you could read in the papers the last days that TC is searching for somebody to buy Condor, their German charter airline, because they are in need of cash at TC headquarters ... some time ago Condor was the charter business of LH, but I cannot see they want it back ...

[RoMax]

It seems the whole Thomas Cook group is in trouble. There may be (highly) profitable parts like Thomas Cook Airlines Belgium. But they are all connected with their respective tour operators. And if one goes down, others may follow...

But to go back on-topic, I don't see SN taking over TCB...

[RoMax]

http://www.centreforaviation.com/analys ... ines-72355

[sn26567]

Thanks for this link, MR_Boeing. The comparison of frequencies between Ryanair and Brussels Airlines on destinations where they compete is interesting: SN often claims that they have an advantage over LCCs because of the high frequencies they can offer. But here we see that Ryanair also offers three daily flights (on par with SN) to several destinations, and is even able to offer more weekly flights than SN on a number of destinations.

[airazurxtror]

Now, to earn more money at the same cost, why don't the pilots (for instance) each set up an "SPRL"/ "BVBA" like do nearly all the doctors, dentists etc ?

[Flanker]

Now, to earn more money at the same cost, why don't the pilots (for instance) each set up an "SPRL"/ "BVBA" like do nearly all the doctors, dentists etc ?

The business plan for a BVBA no longer exists.

Start with 10.000 euro's and do the math:

BVBA:
-23% social charges = 7700
-34% corporate taxes = 5100 (reduced rate of 25% is possible but the conditions are too restrictive)
-25% dividend tax (Sponsored by Di Rupo) = 3820

Emloyee:
-28% employer social charges = 7200 (gross salary)
-13% employee social charges = 6264
-0-50% personal taxes depending on individual situation x 1,05-1,08 for municipal taxes.

This means that as a single person, unless you make 45.000 euro gross a year or can bill your company at least 60.000 euro a year for your services, it' pointless to have a BVBA from a fiscal point of view.
The BVBA also requires start-up costs and capital, and you have annual bookkeeping and filing costs as well as insurance charges to pay, depending on the type of work you do.
In case of gross negligence, you will not be protected by the insurance company of the airline, instead they will try to seek compensation from your BVBA or its insurance. If gross negligence is proven in front of a judge, the judge could rule that you become personally liable for the damages, cancelling your limited liability as the company's owner.


Conclusion, after DiRupo's new dividend taxation policy, to work as a contractor with a Belgian BVBA is only interesting if you expect to make more than 100.000 euro per year.
That's why many people establish a limited liability in Luxemburg and contract work everywhere, but those are small earners or just plain ill-informed, because beyond 100.000 euro's, there isn't much difference between a Belgian BVBA and a company established in Luxemburg, as the 23% social charges no longer apply in Belgium but the social charges in Luxemburg apply to any earnings.

[EBAW_flyer]

Nobody noticed this article in "de standaard" and "het niewsblad"?

http://www.nieuwsblad.be/article/detail ... 120426_224

http://www.standaard.be/artikel/detail. ... s+airlines

Short conclusion: It's not because they are transporting passengers that things go well.
They only hired extra people for the summer peak, the existing employees have to be more flexible and people who leave won't be replaced.
They try to increase earnings (doesn't everybody) and decrease costs by at east 10%

[Passenger]

Now, to earn more money at the same cost, why don't the pilots (for instance) each set up an "SPRL"/ "BVBA" like do nearly all the doctors, dentists etc ?

Let me give you the real reason: because Belgian law forbits this.

It's the law regulation against "schijnzelfstandigen" / "faux indépendants" that forbits this (think it's called "independence in appearance" in inglese). One is not allowed to pretend one is an independent, when at the same time there is an authority relationship. An airline pilot has this towards his airline, but a medical doctor does not have this towards his own company.

[regi]

Now, to earn more money at the same cost, why don't the pilots (for instance) each set up an "SPRL"/ "BVBA" like do nearly all the doctors, dentists etc ?

I have no knowledge about the SNBA organisation. But in case that every pilot starts a company ( not necessarily a BVBA, a single person company is the cheapest way ) , he becomes a subcontractor.
Flanker already noted the strategical hurdle of responsability. ( and I don't know the specific aviation legislation in that respect )
Secondly: if you set up a company in Belgium but in practice you work for just 1 customer, it is regarded as an illegal way to get around labour legislation ( the so called "valse zelfstandige" or illegal independant worker )
I know employers - mostly in construction, horeca and transport business - who were fined very heavely to employ in such a way people who are weak on the job market.
But there is also the point of view of the employer: once your pilots have become subcontractors, nothing prevents them to offer their services to competitors.
And despite I don't know the specific labour + renumeration contracts for pilots of SNBA, I think that many employees of SNBA are not eager at all to leave their benefits behind and become a self employed person.
( 13th month, holiday pay, child support difference, job security, pension plans, protection by a union etcetera )
Coming back to the remark about setting up a company by dentists, physicians etcetera, they belong to a specific kind of professions called " vrije beroepen". Pilot is not enlisted in that category.
http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vrij_beroep

http://www.google.be/#q=statuut+dokters ... 24&bih=654

The reason that doctors set up a company has several reasons. The biggest investment by private persons still is a house. Doctors get special loans , unreachable for private persons.
Untill January, physicians drove around in pretty expensive cars but the recent new law about private taxation on a car has killed the market for Porsche Cayenne, Bentley Coupé and Range Rover Sport for the misses to drive the children to school.

[papysn]

Yes,

Dixit a friend of mine working for Bruair,the work environnement is deteriorating at an very high speed.
Not only the "team and company spirit" are gone,it seems also that the previsional booking for the new NYC flight is not as good as expected...

Hope they will pass the storm in sight...

K.