LH retiring aircraft... opportunities for SN?

[Flanker]

On another website, there is a debate on this matter.
LH is about to retire its first generation B744's and A343's, to replace them with B748i and A333.
On the narrowbody side, LH is expected to get rid of B733's and B735's.

According to a source, the A343's have 90.000 hours on 10.000 cycles or less, which means that there are several years of life left in them.
The B744's have in excess of 110.000 hours, which is about the end of their useful service life as well but if still reliable, they could soldier one for a few more years. I doubt that they would fit into SN's fleet and network.

If LH are trying to get rid of these A343's, they could be very useful for SN to expand its longhaul network, for instance to the far East. Some destinations in China, HKG, HND come to mind. It would also allow to pick some destinations in South America.
If passed on to SN for free, after an eventual LH buy-out, given the quite good fuel efficiency of the A343's (indeed almost on pars with A333 and better than A332 on a capacity basis), they can help SN dramatically expand the long-haul network in a responsible way.

Let's hope that these opportunities will be looked into.

[RoMax]

As SN is in need of 'cheap' long haul aircraft, I'm sure LH and SN investigated (or still investigating) the opportunities of placing the A343's in SN's fleet. It would make SN's long haul fleet quite complex (with A333, A332 and A343) but as part of the LH group that shouldn't such a big issue and SN is already used to it anyway (two different engine types on their A333 fleet).
And indeed the A343's could be a good addition to SN's fleet. Some say the A343's wouldn't be a good choice, because they burn so much fuel...well, if that would be the reason they should better remove their A330's from their fleet too, because they are not really better.

It actually suprises me a bit LH already decides to remove some of their A343's from their fleet, maybe they had SN in their mind when they decided to replace some A343's and ordered a few more A333's recently?

IF LH takes over SN completely early 2012, I would really not be suprised to see 2-3 A343's comming to SN.

[Air Key West]

To feed the discussion and at the risk of being called an armchair ceo, here's my contribution.
Indeed, a few even older LH A343s to complement b.air's fleet would not be bad. We have seen recently that although AFI flights still have good yields, Africa is, for different reasons, an unstable continent (past war in Côte d'Ivoire, the problems with Senegal, what's next ? because there will be something "next"). So, it would not be a bad idea for b.air to also look at other markets. My "12 points" would go to Sao Paulo. Brazil is a strong emerging economy and probably that the InBev people in Leuven would love to have a direct flight to Sao Paulo.
Next, I would consider China. Perhaps not the cities which come to mind first like PEK or HKG, but what about important secondary cities where there is still no or little competition ? FWIW, I have heard (and don't know it it is true) that the Chinese, inter alia for transport convenience and also security reasons, prefer to export what they buy in eastern Congo via Kigali rather than via Kinshasa. Hence, the success of KL's flights to/from Kigali thanks to the connections with the numerous cities served in China by KL.

[CS-TMX]

LH has some quite old A343-311 and I think these would be the aircraft to be disposed of. These are limited to a MTOM of 257T or 260T instead of 275T of the A340-313X. But maybe they would a good addition to SN fleet. SN's A333 are also some of the first of the type to be built and also have a 'miserable' MTOM of 212 or 215T but they do it just fine

[RoMax]

LH has indeed some very old (non-X versions), but SN' A333's are very old (and limited in performance)also indeed, same with the A332's who are not the newest. I think the biggest concern for SN at this moment is just to get reasonable long haul aircraft at a low price.

[OO-ITR]

Next, I would consider China. Perhaps not the cities which come to mind first like PEK or HKG, but what about important secondary cities where there is still no or little competition ? FWIW, I have heard (and don't know it it is true) that the Chinese, inter alia for transport convenience and also security reasons, prefer to export what they buy in eastern Congo via Kigali rather than via Kinshasa. Hence, the success of KL's flights to/from Kigali thanks to the connections with the numerous cities served in China by KL.

I agree. Maybe Guangzhou can be considered. It has a large Congolese community and a lot of trade is done between Congo and Guangzhou with lots of Congolese travelling to Guangzhou to buy products to bring them to Congo and sell them there.
It's also very close to Hong Kong (triangular?).
Apparantly CAN (Guangzhou Airport) is Chinese second busiest airport (pax wise) and third busiest cargo airport.
AF, LH, ET, KQ and TK already serve this city.

It's also a base for future Star Alliance member Shenzhen Airlines.

[DeltaWiskey]

Is it possible we might see e Leap-X engine conversion for the A340 (200 and 300) somewhere in the future? If so, that would beat CASM of an A330-300 easily...
Interesting...

[Air Key West]

I agree with OO-ITR that CAN could be a good first destination in China for b.air. BTW AF-KL are continuing their conquest of China : AF is going to fly to Wuhan in Central China. I admit that I had never heard of tis place before, but this confirms what I suggested earlier : airlines, even b.air, should consider flying to important secondary cities in China. SN should not only fly American pax to Africa, but should also consider a few destinations in China (the cargo alone would probably make the flights profitable). But, of course, we all know this is not at all on b.air's agenda. Too bad. Although with all the recurrent political problems in Africa, it would be time to diversify.

[Passenger]

I agree with OO-ITR that CAN could be a good first destination in China for b.air. BTW AF-KL are continuing their conquest of China : AF is going to fly to Wuhan in Central China. I admit that I had never heard of tis place before, but this confirms what I suggested earlier : airlines, even b.air, should consider flying to important secondary cities in China.

Brussels Airlines was established by Belgian companies. If these share holders would like to have a direct flight to China, they will all prefer Bejing as first destination there.

But, of course, we all know this is not at all on b.air's agenda.

Who says it has not been discussed?
And who is "we" ? The armchair managers here, who constantly say that they know it all better?

[Air Key West]

So, according to you, "Passenger" (?), flights must be operated according to the needs of the shareholders, not according to what clients and the market want.

[Flanker]

If I may step into this debate, I tend to stick with Air Key West's view.

At SN many things get debated, but somehow they manage to go from bad to worse. The guys with the biggest mouths and longest tongues (you know the metaphor) prevail, while the humble ones with the good idea's are burried.

While we're at it, we might debate the case of TPE, a somehow neglected city/airport.
Funny thing is that none of the LH Group airlines seem to operate to Taipei. Worse even, LH codeshares with alliance rival CX on HKG-TPE and actively sells this.
Most interestingly, Taiwanese businesses are eager to invest in African countries as SME's are popping up all over Africa creating demand for high quality machinery from countries like Taiwan, Korea and Japan. This creates travel demand for training and trade visits in both directions.
Here again, no goldmine for an airline like SN but a strategical route that can run profits.

[Passenger]

If I may step into this debate, I tend to stick with Air Key West's view.

At SN many things get debated, but somehow they manage to go from bad to worse. The guys with the biggest mouths and longest tongues (you know the metaphor) prevail, while the humble ones with the good idea's are burried.

Quite a relief you are not following me!

But how do you knox for sure that "the humble ones are burried"? Have you even attended one board meeting, one directors meeting, one internal meeting from f.e. sales or ops or dispatch or catering? No, your ongoing strange theories proof that you haven't - so the only sources for you are internet and wikipedia (and you're damned good in it) and statements from luchtzak-members who are working for competition airlines and who love to bash Brussels Airlines.

Example: the fuel prices. "wrong decisions from Brussels Airlines' management", I read here. Well, AF/KL has published provisional results yesterday, and they also blaim high fuel prices for their loss "...although our excellent hedging...", they say. And nobody of the armchair managers here protests or disagrees with that statement.

So, according to you, "Passenger" (?), flights must be operated according to the needs of the shareholders, not according to what clients and the market want.

Yes : it's up to the shareholders to decide which routes could be opened. If you would look at the quality and importance of their businesses, you would even not dare to suggest (as you do) that they would open a route without investigating there is a market for. And I can assure you from own experience they do so. Example: Sales asks the key accounts (BCD, CWL and others) what they think about, gets the figures from other airlines, asks embassy for figures, etc.

[Air Key West]

Dear Passenger, you're definitely on the wrong forum. You need a forum for people like you in higher circles. I'm just a real passenger (often paying Business class fares) who, together with other aviation fans (without being necessarily experts) like to exchange ideas and suggestions like friends would do around a glass of beer, which is clearly not your cup of tea. Too bad. Again, you're on the wrong forum and I really don't see why you keep on wasting your time on us. I also find it extremely regrettable that some members get really agressive and sometimes nearly insult each other. We should all be gentlemen who can agree to disagree.

[sn26567]

Yes : it's up to the shareholders to decide which routes could be opened.

I don't think that shareholders go that far in the decision process. It is up to Management to decide about routes (and even aircraft). And if shareholders are unhappy with the decisions of Management, they can decide to fire the responsible managers at the General Assembly, once a year. But then usually only the CEO is held responsible...

[tolipanebas]

Example: the fuel prices. "wrong decisions from Brussels Airlines' management", I read here. Well, AF/KL has published provisional results yesterday, and they also blaim high fuel prices for their loss "...although our excellent hedging...", they say. And nobody of the armchair managers here protests or disagrees with that statement.

Excuse me, but there is a case to be made against SN's poor hedging results, sorry.

I know that in the end it all comes down to having enough cash money available as hedging asks for some serious investments, but the bottom line is that SN is hedging too little, too late, meaing they remain too exposed to any price hikes (on the significant portion of fuel that is not hedged) and can not benefit enough from matured hedges (on the relatively small portion that is covered by hedges).
And yes, SN is by no means the only airline which is hedging too little, too late, but that doesn't make them any less vulnerable for criticism!

In comparison, LH has a brilliant and rather unique incremental forward looking hedging policy; it has yielded them great results over the past few years, something which can not be said from the more naive straight forward contractual hedging deals.

[Passenger]

Dear Passenger, you're definitely on the wrong forum. You need a forum for people like you in higher circles. I'm just a real passenger (often paying Business class fares) who, together with other aviation fans (without being necessarily experts) like to exchange ideas and suggestions like friends would do around a glass of beer, which is clearly not your cup of tea. Too bad. Again, you're on the wrong forum and I really don't see why you keep on wasting your time on us. I also find it extremely regrettable that some members get really agressive and sometimes nearly insult each other. We should all be gentlemen who can agree to disagree.

Are that your rules? All critic here is allowed, as long as it is critic against Brussels Airlines. And any critic against those who constantly critise the airline is forbitten? Excuse me. I am not on their pay list, but I've done quite some business with them (and also with Sabena, by the way) and my experience is that it is not a bunch of idiots there, with only the flying people performing well.

Take whatever topic you want about Brussels Airlines: the same people always post the same reactions, based upon their own previous reactions, or based upon information they cannot know, or based upon posts from professional SN-bashers (= SN's competition).

And finally : gentlemen do not write "the guys with the biggest mouths and longest tongues".

[Wohowbagger]

11 out of 16 replies in this post handle another matter then the subject.
I thought this was about the aircraft opportunities SN had? Guess I was wrong...

[sn26567]

11 out of 16 replies in this post handle another matter then the subject.
I thought this was about the aircraft opportunities SN had? Guess I was wrong...

Thanks for reminding our readers about the topic!

[cnc]

well the first question to ask is if SN has enough money to open up new routes and support new aircrafts besides the 2 A332's and JFK. longhaul ops are big investments.
if so the A343's seem plausible, the 744 not altough it would look amazing in SN colors

[cathay belgium]

With A343 JNB comes in mind again,
maybe the 'lost' investments of Korongo could be replaced to SA then ( former Nationwide / SN )
and operate out of SA to Congo bases.. know wild idea haha

CX-B