Brussels Airlines future and financial perspective

[Crosswind]

All is in the title... There are lots of internal rumors, actually: Korongo not going well (at all), fleet renewal (phase in/phase out) frozen due to lack of money to train crews, heavy losses in 2011, bankruptcy within 2 or 3 years if Lufthansa doesn't buy the rest of the company by 2012...

The future is uncertain. Between the crisis which never seems to stop and the financial situation of the company, times are tough...

Is the aviation world f***ing damned to die, in Belgium?

[RoMax]

Is the aviation world f***ing damned to die, in Belgium?

Could be...

If LH or another strong airline didn't decide to buy SN they would have ended in bankruptcy again (or they would in the comming years). SN is too small to survive allone in the battle between AF/KL, LH and IAG. Thanks to LH SN achieved several improvements on all sides, except for the financial side. The investments were/are (too?) heavy for SN. The only thing SN can hope for is that LH takes them over fast so that they can take care of the financials. Now it is too late to be able to survive without LH.

btw, may I suggest we use this topic for real information (or the rumours we heard about this) and not for these typicall posts were "we" are saying what SN should do as that is already the case with every recent SN topic?

[Shanti]

Lufthansa Brussels?

[shogan1977]

Lufthansa Brussels?

Here's hoping What need is there for a "Belgian" airline anyway? I'd much rather get my 150% United status miles available on Lufthansa (ANA, Air Canada, US Airways and UA/CO)

[Flanker]

Some of this was being debated as MrBoeing mentions, in the A332 thread.

Tolipanebas, it seems that you've become the specialist of off-context quoting.

Maybe that's because I am merely quoting remarks from you then?

Last but not least, operating costs of consolidated routes don't explode. Consolidation is there to cut costs.

Consolidation as in reducing overlaps cuts costs; consolidation as in moving everyting to FRA however, won't cut costs as the unit cost of LH is significantly higher than at SN or OS!
Aks the unions at LH what they are most scared off these days: scenarios of LH outsourcing longhaul flights!
So you're considering relocating OUA and BKO plus its tag-ons to FRA for instance? Any idea what that would do to the profitability of these destinations? I can tell you LH has done the exercise already just to see how lean we truely operate and it showed they can not operate profitably to any of these places given their inherently higher cost basis! How did you call that before... euh, checkmate?
Why do you think they got after us in the first place when they decided AFI would be their next target? Because we happened to have a few old A330s operating some triangular flights there?
The Germans did their homework first, believe me.

The only investment that LH would have to make is to shift 6 or 7 of their own A330's to the African routes and take-over the local African operations. That is a much much smaller investment than taking-over the entire Brussels Airlines operation.

As I've said before, Lufthansa can freely do so indeed, just as they can do with OS or even LX.
It's a theoretical possibility indeed, but it isn't the most probable one and the remote possibility of it happening nevertheless does not justify not teaming up with LH, especially as there isn't really an abundance of other partners to choose from these days, while a stand-alone scenario is completely impossible given the reluctancy from our historic shareholders to invest any further.
SN has to work with the financial means it has, not the financial means it would love to have and in such a context, the partnership with LH is a gift even if it entails some risks.
As they say: in the long run, we're all dead anyway, so doing nothing isn't an option either.

I think that if LH has done the exercise of seeing if they can transfer BRU-Africa routes to their own FRA operations, it's reason for serious concern.
1. LH may be saying what SN wants to hear
If the exercise has shown that operating from FRA made more sense, would they say so to SN? How would unions, non-LH shareholders, Belgian politicians, etc... react to that? Would LH let that happen?
You've got to see how big corporations are run and realize that they can't be taken for their word, especially with sensible subjects as this.

2. LH may be saying the truth
Another perceivable way to look at it is that you're right and that LH indeed didn't find a way to operate the African routes profitably from FRA.
If LH's purpose of buying SN was to bring in those routes to FRA, they no longer have a reason to buy the remainder of SN.

Either way, your dream scenario doesn't make sense.
Even if SN's cost base is lower than LH's, as long as SN is losing more money in Europe than they're making in Africa, SN only brings negative value to LH.

I think that the many employees who work very hard for SN, including you Tolipanebas, people who have mortgages and their children's tuition to pay for, deserve to know where they stand.
For this reason, I think that it's healthy to discuss that here.

Thanks to LH SN achieved several improvements on all sides, except for the financial side. The investments were/are (too?) heavy for SN. The only thing SN can hope for is that LH takes them over fast so that they can take care of the financials. Now it is too late to be able to survive without LH.

100% correct. Fingers crossed, hope for the best, be prepared for the worst. If LH doesn't exercise their options come spring, SN still has other options available.

All is in the title... There are lots of internal rumors, actually: Korongo not going well (at all), fleet renewal (phase in/phase out) frozen due to lack of money to train crews, heavy losses in 2011, bankruptcy within 2 or 3 years if Lufthansa doesn't buy the rest of the company by 2012...

This is my personal evaluation of the financial situation: I think that at the current pace, with the current strategy and considering the operating environment, without any cash injection, we can be happy to make it to the end of 2012. That's without considering the damage that the media would make on future bookings if the story is floated on the news.

[Flanker]

As I've said before, Lufthansa can freely do so indeed, just as they can do with OS or even LX.
It's a theoretical possibility indeed, but it isn't the most probable one and the remote possibility of it happening nevertheless does not justify not teaming up with LH, especially as there isn't really an abundance of other partners to choose from these days, while a stand-alone scenario is completely impossible given the reluctancy from our historic shareholders to invest any further.
SN has to work with the financial means it has, not the financial means it would love to have and in such a context, the partnership with LH is a gift even if it entails some risks.
As they say: in the long run, we're all dead anyway, so doing nothing isn't an option either.

I'll give you some credit for this post. As you know, I'm not as optimistic on the motives of LH.

[BrusselsAirlines]

After terrorism, economical warfare in the EU?

This could hurt all of us (again)

3 times in 1 centennium - how brilliant we are as humans - but then again, apes are fighting for their territory on a daily basis, maybe we got a little lazy.

But fortunately we can count on our politicians to stabilise the economy...

[Passenger]

This is my personal evaluation of the financial situation: I think that at the current pace, with the current strategy and considering the operating environment, without any cash injection, we can be happy to make it to the end of 2012. That's without considering the damage that the media would make on future bookings if the story is floated on the news.

1. if an airline can survive a period of 15 months (like you predict), it can also survive a period of 150 months.

2. "... if the story is floated on the news ..." : which story? There is no story! There are only rumours: rumours constantly set out by you and rumours set out by people who are working for a competition airline. Journalists are extremely anxious with so called "stories about financial problems at company xyz".

[BrusselsAirlines]

If they start to cut down the number of CEO's of the cpy by 50%, then I would start to panic.

In the mean time it would be nice to have some more communication, 'all plans are cancelled' is rather short and incomprehensive.

[Flanker]

2. "... if the story is floated on the news ..." : which story? There is no story! There are only rumours: rumours constantly set out by you and rumours set out by people who are working for a competition airline. Journalists are extremely anxious with so called "stories about financial problems at company xyz".

I like SN very much and I don't like what's happening to it.
End of story.

If you're looking for a scapegoat, look somewhere else.

Moderators,
This poster is wrongly accusing me of starting false rumors. Doesn't this qualify for a delete?

[Bralo20]

This poster is wrongly accusing me of starting false rumors. Doesn't this qualify for a delete?

Why NCB/Flanker?

Maybe you are right and you aren't technically spreading "false" rumours but YOU are always bashing Brussels Airlines, Lufthansa and probably any other airline you deem fit to be bashed... When someone doesn't agree with you, you are in a hurry to bash the person too... You even try to "hijack" every single thread where you post... Wetter it is about the Q400's, the Airbusses, Financials, etc... You always need to have the final word... Everybody who doesn't think like you is either incompetent, stupid or must be coming from another planet...

I think it needs to stop NCB... We are all here to discuss aviation and we all do it with a certain passion, but unlike you, most of us know where to stop, where the line is drawn... Think about it... For once... Let it sink and think about it...

[BrightCedars]

All is in the title... There are lots of internal rumors, actually: Korongo not going well (at all), fleet renewal (phase in/phase out) frozen due to lack of money to train crews, heavy losses in 2011, bankruptcy within 2 or 3 years if Lufthansa doesn't buy the rest of the company by 2012...

The future is uncertain. Between the crisis which never seems to stop and the financial situation of the company, times are tough...

Sounds more like management cooking the staff for some cost cutting and productivity increasing measures.

SN is here to stay and grow organically, under the wing of the LH group, for a long time.

[Wohowbagger]

oh Flanker/NCB is in this topic too. should stop reading here.

[tolipanebas]

I think that if LH has done the exercise of seeing if they can transfer BRU-Africa routes to their own FRA operations, it's reason for serious concern.

Everything is a reason for serious concern to you!
Whatever LH does can always be read with a bad eye if you absolutely want to, as you've come to demonstrate here once more.
BTW, read carefully what I wrote yesterday: I haven't said they've looked at TRANSFERRING the flights to FRA like you say here, I know for a fact they've looked at OPERATING West-African flights themselves from FRA at one stage and that's a very big difference as you'll see below!

If the exercise has shown that operating from FRA made more sense, would they say so to SN?

No indeed, yet the interesting thing is they did this faisability study prior to their surprise purchase of 45% of the shares of SN. If the excercise would have shown that operating from FRA would have been a profitable venture for them, you can be sure LH would immediately have added a couple of A330s and started operating to all those VFR destinations in West-Africa themselves, rather than bother buying into a cash-strapped non-allied and at times also stearless airline like SN as they subsequently did.
Assuming LH first wastes €65M on buying into SN and only then runs a faisability study on whether it wouldn't be much cheaper for them to simply operate all those flights to West-Africa themselves is a bit of an insult to LH's management team and even more to your own intellectual capacities, if you allow me to say so...

Another perceivable way to look at it is that you're right and that LH indeed didn't find a way to operate the African routes profitably from FRA, yet if LH's purpose of buying SN was to bring in those routes to FRA, they no longer have a reason to buy the remainder of SN.

Just as I've come to say, LH is damned if they do and damned if they don't, in your eyes.
LH hates it when they don't have full operational control over the airlines they take a stake in and currently they don't have that operational control over SN, much to their frustration sometimes...

I think that the many employees who work very hard for SN, including you Tolipanebas, people who have mortgages and their children's tuition to pay for, deserve to know where they stand.
For this reason, I think that it's healthy to discuss that here.

Yet you don't seem to be bringing any clarity either: the only thing we've seen from you here so far is constant negative conjecture on the future of SN and LH and whereas it is not impossible things might head your way indeed (hell might freeze over as they say in the US), there is no real indication of it either, so the ardor by which you keep beating the same dead horse over and over again in every possible topic even just remotely connected to it, is almost insane for any normal person to do and certainly gives the impression you're eagerly hoping for the absolute worst case outcome.

I'm not as optimistic on the motives of LH.

I'd say you are even refusing to take into account any circumstantial evidence which hints at a clearly positive evolution, while constantly interpreting facts that happen to come to your attention in the most negative way, right until the very moment irrefutable proof is delivered your negative conjecture is way off, after which you start insulting the person bringing that proof as well as the decision announced.
Not only is this not a very rational attitude, it is also not a very mature attitude, if I may say so...

Maybe you are right and you aren't technically spreading "false" rumours but you are always bashing Brussels Airlines, Lufthansa and probably any other airline you deem fit to be bashed... When someone doesn't agree with you, you are in a hurry to bash that person too... You even try to "hijack" every single thread where you post... Wetter it is about the Q400's, the Airbusses, Financials, etc... You always need to have the final word... Everybody who doesn't think like you is either incompetent, stupid or must be coming from another planet...I think it needs to stop NCB... We are all here to discuss aviation and we all do it with a certain passion, but unlike you, most of us know where to stop, where the line is drawn... Think about it... For once... Let it sink and think about it.

That's a very true account of a typical discussion, sadly enough.
I wonder if the complete absurdity of it will make a lasting impression, though?

Oh no, Flanker/NCB is in this topic too: should stop reading here.

Sad, but true...
Surely nobody is after such kind of notority, or is he?

If they start to cut down the number of CEO's of the cpy by 50%, then I would start to panic.

ROTFL and probably true indeed!

[FlightMate]

Well I don't see any point at LH leaving SN go bankrupt.
They already paid 65m euros, I'm sure they are not considering it as "lost".

In your view, if LH doesn't buy the rest of the shares, SN will eventually go bust. And it won't if LH buys the rest of it.
If that's correct, It's then clear that the best strategy for LH would be to cash out "some" extra money in order not to lose their initial investment.
Or maybe they could sell the 45% shares they have, but to whom?

[1V1]

No indeed, yet the interesting thing is they did this faisability study prior to their surprise purchase of 45% of the shares of SN. If the excercise would have shown that operating from FRA would have been a profitable venture for them, you can be sure LH would immediately have added a couple of A330s and started operating to all those VFR destinations in West-Africa themselves, rather than bother buying into a cash-strapped non-allied and at times also stearless airline like SN as they subsequently did.
Assuming LH first wastes €65M on buying into SN and only then runs a faisability study on whether it wouldn't be much cheaper for them to simply operate all those flights to West-Africa themselves is a bit of an insult to LH's management team and even more to your own intellectual capacities, if you allow me to say so...

Hi toli.
I would like to add this to the discussion. Last year, October or November, I was talking to a LH manager in DXB and while we where talking about BMI he suddenly told me LH would not take any extra shares in SN. When he saw I was surprised he added they'd rather get out. Any truth in this story? No idea but he was right about LH not taking any extra shares though.

best regards.

[Boeing767copilot]

Lufthansa cuts 2011 earnings guidance, reduces capacity

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... acity.html

[FlightMate]

Heard SN has lost 80 millions euro.
And the business plan has been drastically changed (not going to get the airbus to replace the 737/avro)

A fleet of Q400 seems more possible nowadays.

[airtrotter]

For 2011 losses were expected, because of heavy investment etc. Although I don't have an idea if 80 M is more than expected and if this will prove to be too much to carry out planned strategy...

[FlightMate]

It must be!

As they already have to reshuffle their plans.
No more Airbus319/320. Q400 to replace the Avro
100 pilots too many.
Salary cuts.

And with the European crisis only starting... I fear the worst will come.

Will the German save Europe (and Brussels Airlines)?