Air India or Jet Airways, who will join Star Alliance?

[RoMax]

But 9W will not stay at BRU just because they have one of the most luxuary lounches.

Time will tell

Yes of course. But I just mean that you have to consider such decisions very carefully. You don't just throw away a hub like BRU.

[Atlantis]

Of course they will be carefull. Jet Airways will take not that many risks (they are still weak) and they will compare both alliances, networks, home carrier, airport fees, etc. They will take a business solution and not an emotional solution.

But I think it would be "more" easy for Jet to choose for Star when AI was not in. In that case, LH will not allow that AI organise flights to BRU. This means, again feeder flights ex-BRU to FRA.
In the other case if Jet will chose Star they could develop again.

[Air Key West]

Objectively speaking, 9W's first choice should be *A, because they have more code shares with *A members than with airlines belonging to other alliances. However, let us reckon that Skyteam will make a very attractive offer (an offer they cannot refuse ?) to 9W, because Skyteam will not want to be the alliance with no partner in India. Switching 9W's scissor hub to AMS (more likely than CDG or MXP) would probably not be a problem for SPL (they have a dynamic and competent management). Much will depend on how the cost of the move will be compensated for by Skyteam. Fortunately, moving from BRU to AMS will have a price tag for 9W, so *A membership is certainly not excluded. It will also depend on how much *A will want 9W as a member. I suspect that two alliances will be fiercely competing, which will be good for 9W. Let's keep our fingers crossed that 9W joins Star (Skytem does not deserve such a prime carrier, at least imho).

[Bralo20]

Star Alliance really wants 9W to join their alliance... Unfortunately they have AI to think about... AI is owned by the Indian government and Star needs AI or at least their owners (the government) to keep their precious slots and co-operation. If Star could make AI disappear they whould have made it long time ago... The best thing they could was to force AI a while ago to say that 9W can join Star also, at least after AI joined... Now, the joining of AI is the tricky part, the deadline is March 2011 as I remember correctly but since Star extended their deadline in the past I'm pretty sure they'll do it again since everything looks like AI won't be ready (again) to join... If Star can get the government so far they don't need to wait for AI to invite 9W I think it will happen from one day to another but this won't happen since it's almost certain that Star would dump AI if 9W manages to join Star before AI does...

So it's up to Star, AI and the indian government... If they want to co-operate I think it's pretty certain that 9W will join Star... However, if AI isn't ready in time and the government won't co-operate to invite 9W during that time I'm pretty sure 9W will end up in Skyteam... With drastic results for Star Alliance, Brussels Airport, Brussels Airlines & United Airlines...

[fretn]

Arghh, stupid governement intervention in India.
Too bad, they don't think about all the jobs they provide in Brussels.
I avoided Air India for my trip to india on the end of this month, because of this regulation bullshit & because of their poor safety record.

[134flyer]

Star Alliance really wants 9W to join their alliance... Unfortunately they have AI to think about... AI is owned by the Indian government and Star needs AI or at least their owners (the government) to keep their precious slots and co-operation. If Star could make AI disappear they whould have made it long time ago... The best thing they could was to force AI a while ago to say that 9W can join Star also, at least after AI joined... Now, the joining of AI is the tricky part, the deadline is March 2011 as I remember correctly but since Star extended their deadline in the past I'm pretty sure they'll do it again since everything looks like AI won't be ready (again) to join... If Star can get the government so far they don't need to wait for AI to invite 9W I think it will happen from one day to another but this won't happen since it's almost certain that Star would dump AI if 9W manages to join Star before AI does...

So it's up to Star, AI and the indian government... If they want to co-operate I think it's pretty certain that 9W will join Star... However, if AI isn't ready in time and the government won't co-operate to invite 9W during that time I'm pretty sure 9W will end up in Skyteam... With drastic results for Star Alliance, Brussels Airport, Brussels Airlines & United Airlines...

Yes, this is exactly the way I see it as well. Also, LH has stated in the past that *A can have 2 Indian members (meaning AI and 9W) and I think 9W wants to join as well, if you read between the lines: Sudheer Raghavan (9W's CCO) stated in De Standaard:

We built our BRU hub with a lot of effort, we won't throw that away in a heartbeat. However, if we cannot join Star Alliance (...), that will of course change things, and it will mean we cannot cooperate with SN anymore.

So at the moment it indeed depends on AI & the Indian government. Like you said: if AI will indeed finally join *A in March 2011 (...), then it is very possible that 9W will announce the day after that they will join as well. If the entrance of AI will be postponed again, then *A must try to convince the Indian government that it is taking too much time to wait for AI until they have sorted themselves out and that either AI will be 'dumped' or that 9W will be allowed to join first. Both options are however very hard to accomplish.

So if 9W can not join *A in the near future for the above reasons, they indeed have no other option than to join Skyteam, as they cannot stay independent, but I think 9W really doesn't belong in Skyteam...

I would never think that I ever could bring myself to say the following, but under the circumstances we can only hope that AI will finally join *A very soon...

[Air Key West]

I think Bralo20's analysis is very much to the point. BTW, does anybody remember whether AI applied for membership with *A or whether they were invited to join by *A ?

[sn26567]

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_ai ... dy_1444899

In short: Air India's plans to join Star Alliance by March 2011 are in jeopardy. AI is late in training personnel and integrating IT systems. Furthemore, Air India tichets are still delivered under 2 diffrent codes: AI (Air India) and IC (the former Indian Airlines who merged with Air India).

Star Alliance declines to talk about Jet Airways until they are officially candidate, but it seems that 9W would not mind joining Star before AI. But (in cauda venenum), recently, the Ministry of Civil Aviation is believed to have taken a call to bar Jet from entering any new code share agreements till Air India’ entry into Star Alliance in March 2011.

[sn26567]

BTW, does anybody remember whether AI applied for membership with *A or whether
they were invited to join by *A ?

Air India was invited to join Star Alliance on 13 December 2007. It was originally scheduled to become a member on March 29, 2009.

[fretn]

How bad can an airliner be

[fets]

Looking at it from the other side (hoping this won't happen): 9W not joining *A and leaving BRU would make room in BRU for 6 more widebodies during the morning rush hour.
If the economy recovers, we might see some new routes being started then.. any ideas who would like to expand in/to BRU with such big metal? Room for NH/SQ/TG/...?

[LJ]

Switching 9W's scissor hub to AMS (more likely than CDG or MXP) would probably not be a problem for SPL (they have a dynamic and competent management). Much will depend on how the cost of the move will be compensated for by Skyteam. Fortunately, moving from BRU to AMS will have a price tag for 9W, so *A membership is certainly not excluded.

Why do everyone conclude that when 9W goes for Skyteam, they´ll change their scissor hub? If they don´t rely on feed from SN they can operate the scissor hub at BRU without any problem. Furthermore, from a competition point of view there is nothing better for Skyteam to block any transatlantic or Indian ambition by SN by staying at BRU. Finally, if they would move their hub I doubt AMS is the place (at least in the short run). Not only are there bilateral issues (the Dutch-Indian aviation treaty is still very restrictive), KLM would also have to release some capacity on AMS-India and AMS-Toronto/NYC as the Jet flights would create an overcapacity on these routes. Furthermore, it´s highly questionable if their are enough slots available at AMS for the scissor hub. If I recall it correctly, Jet looked at AMS when they had to decide to where to locate the hub. At the time Jet couldn´t get the slots it needed at AMS. This played a role in deciding for BRU. Thus moving the hub to AMS seems very unlikely to me unless KLM would give them some prime slots (which I doubt they will).

[itami]

Room for NH/SQ/TG/...?

Exactly now the Belgian government has a good opportunity to raise these matters with political leaders of Asian countries on the side lines of the ASEM 8 Top held at Brussels today and tomorrow.

[fretn]

Not good news,

AI's entry in star alliance is again delayed...till mid 2011.

Source: http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/ ... %20Delayed

[134flyer]

After the article in 'De Standaard' last week about 9W's future at BRU, now an interesting article in today's 'De Tijd' newspaper about the same subject. Again Sudheer Raghavan (9W's CCO) is being interviewed, and it is very obvious that 9W sees *A as option number 1:

Star Alliance is the best option for us (...)

As known, the problem is AI however. Apparently in December the decision will be made if AI will be refused entry of *A, due to their ongoing integration problems (this 'refusal deadline' is however totally new for me).

Raghavan continues:

If AI will be refused, then we will have a chance to join *A, but if not, is *A prepared to allow a second Indian carrier in the alliance?

So everything screams: 'We (9w) want to join Star Alliance!!' But everything depends on AI/Indian government...

*A CEO Jaan Albrecht meanwhile continues to state: "We knew this was difficult. The new target now is mid-2011,” Albrecht confirmed. He added that Air India is going forward "full steam.”

So that's the problem, AI is using steam power for their integration and future membership of *A...

[RoMax]

As known, the problem is AI however. Apparently in December the decision will be made if AI will be refused entry of *A, due to their ongoing integration problems (this 'refusal deadline' is however totally new for me).

I'm not suprised. AI should have joined Star in 2009. The current join date is mid-2011. This is not only embarrassing for AI, but also for Star Alliance.
After this delay, AI and the Indian governement must understand that Star is really unhappy. It's clear that 9W wants Star Alliance if possible and that Star Alliance wants 9W if possible. The problem is AI. If AI continious to delay their entry and continious to work against everyone else, they should be dumped. Altough that's a risk because of the Indian government.

Star Alliance should really try to convince AI and the Indian government to aggree with 9W joining as fast as possible.

BTW, if you read the article in De tijd, you can clearly notice that Jet is really happy about their BRU hub. They are profitable in BRU and the are happy about the short transit times. Something a big airport can't always offer. They are happy with Brussels Airlines wich delivers thousands of pax to Jet.
Jet Airways don't want to give this up, but they want to join an alliance. They want to join Star, but they don't know if they can get into Star Alliance if AI will really enter. If they can't join Star, they will join Skyteam wich will force them to leave BRU. Something they don't want to do it seems.

[fretn]

I guess LH/UA will do their best to convince the Indian governement.

[Conti764]

One thing I was always wondering about is this... If 9W would go to Skyteam (which I truly hope not) can't BRU have a function as a scissor hub the other way around? NW did it for years from AMS (I don't know if DL still does), flying beyond AMS.

UA will be a huge company when the merger is fully completed. Could they not use BRU as a scissor hub for flights to India the way 9W currently uses BRU? The facilities are there and paid for and BRU would definately be open to such a proposal.

[Thomas_C]

...can't BRU have a function as a scissor hub the other way around?...

Can you explain more please?

[Stij]

Can you explain more please?

I guess Conti764 talks about an American Company operating a scissor hub to India instead of an Indian Company operating a scissor hub to the USA...

Cheers,

Stij