5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

[NCB]

Didn't I read somewhere else that Continental was unable to codeshare flights to Africa due to lack of space? And anyway why give up half the revenue to another airline if you can earn it yourself?

You forgot about 9W and DL.
9W has daily EWR and DL/9W both have daily JFK.
When you cover someone else's back do it decently.

5 airlines covering NYC and you say that JFK is a top priority for SN as a point to point because "it's losing half of the revenue". Make me laugh.

I say JFK over BOS, but not until SN has 10 A330's and then only as an evening flight.
If SN needs the African connection, they can codeshare with 9W and block the necessary amount of seats, no need to send an A332 for that.
So why is it not being done? It's either in the works or it's just not interesting enough (9W can give a return to JFK for 650euro, so SN could definitely negotiate some seats at retail price if it were interesting enough.)
Some seem to forget that there is competition at JFK to Africa as well: Arik Air, Air France, British Airways, EgyptAir.

[RoMax]

You forgot about 9W and DL.
9W has daily EWR and DL/9W both have daily JFK.
When you cover someone else's back do it decently.

5 airlines covering NYC and you say that JFK is a top priority for SN as a point to point because "it's losing half of the revenue". Make me laugh.

I say JFK over BOS, but not until SN has 10 A330's and then only as an evening flight.
If SN needs the African connection, they can codeshare with 9W and block the necessary amount of seats, no need to send an A332 for that.
So why is it not being done? It's either in the works or it's just not interesting enough (9W can give a return to JFK for 650euro, so SN could definitely negotiate some seats at retail price if it were interesting enough.)
Some seem to forget that there is competition at JFK to Africa as well: Arik Air, Air France, British Airways, EgyptAir.

I really don't understand you're way of thinking, but I suppose it's my fault. SN said JFK and BOS(or ORD, altough I don't think that's a good plan) have pretty high priority for the comming years. They said they have very high numbers of connecting pax between AFI and the US trough BRU and they don't want to relay on their partners for al these pax (it's normal that they want to make profit on these pax in order of their partners). So SN wants the connection pax from the NYC area and BOS area and the point-to-point traffic from these destinations. I know that the connection pax aren't enough to be profitable, but combined with the point to point traffic they can be profitable. And they need flights that arrive in the morning at BRU so they can connect to the departing AFI flights. There is already a lot of capacity on the BRU-JFK morning flights, but it's up to SN to push AA or DL out of the market. For both of them it's there secondary international base so they would give up that more quikly than there primary hubs (ORD, ATL). But SN will need good service for that (AVOD IFE's in economy included), so they will need a lot of help of their "mother" LH. But they can do it.
And please forget the evening flight to JFK, SN will not do that because they will not have connections to AFI and that's just what they need. I know there is a markt for that, but SN will not fill up that gap in the market. At least not until we are let's say 10-20 years further.

[tolipanebas]

My A319 concept is a midhaul concept, you should know better that 6 hour trips can not be qualified as longhauls.

words, words, words...

An operation of max. 18 departures per day can not be qualified as "superhub", but you failed to understand that

Nobody is hoping for a superhub but you, really.

You're the one who thinks SN should operate at least 18 A319s to AFI on a daily basis, around the clock, even at the weirdest of hours, as well as offer out of sync transatlantics (do these qualify as long haul flights, in your eyes BTW) and operate flights to places like DEN!

I been trying to tell you how the organic growth on AFI will most likely look like, based on public facts, some inside information and logic assumptions from a professional. Looking back at the February discussion with what we know today, my outlook wasn't bad at all, is it? Yours on the other hand....

I am still waiting for your counter-analysis on the A319's to the 18 specific destinations in West Africa and I fear that it will never come

Remember you've desactivated your PM function because you've been hiding under a rock for the last few months, after making a complete fool of yourself.

you have admitted yourself recently following my analysis of A319 performance, that it can be operated within legal and safe operational margins.

I have restated exactly the same as I have told you in February when you first pushed the idea:

In real day-to-day operations, your proposals are just about faisable for a few of the nearest-by destinations (DKR for instance, which occasionally has to be operated on A319 and proofs an operational pain in the proverbial place EVERY TIME), yet those destinations are requiring far more capacity than any A319 can ever provide you with, whereas the thinner destinations you've mentioned, are all further away and thus out of reach in a realistic scenario.

BTW, are you still messing around with that turboprop-catering service? That was great fun!

Besides, If you try to do some calculations, at least try to use the correct operational data as used by SN...

Being a pilot doesn't qualify you to say things that you imagine to be true.

Hear hear

I really don't understand you're way of thinking, but I suppose it's my fault.

I've a feeling nobody is understanding him, because actually his only point is to disagree with SN and pretend knowing it better than you, me, anybody else around here whereas SN (or even LH) are just a bunch of fools who don't know how to operate long haul flights in the most network efficient way!

SN said JFK and BOS have pretty high priority for the coming years. They said they have very high numbers of connecting pax between AFI and the US trough BRU and they don't want to relay on their partners for al these pax (it's normal that they want to make profit on these pax in order of their partners). So SN wants the connection pax from the NYC area and BOS area and the point-to-point traffic from these destinations.

as if NCB cares what the airline says; he knows better!

I know that the connection pax aren't enough to be profitable, but combined with the point to point traffic they can be profitable. And they need flights that arrive in the morning at BRU so they can connect to the departing AFI flights.

I think that analysis is pretty obvious indeed and fully in line with what SN has constantly said.

Some think it would make more sense to operate to DEN though, possibly even with a late evening departure maybe?

[NCB]

I really don't understand you're way of thinking, but I suppose it's my fault. SN said JFK and BOS(or ORD, altough I don't think that's a good plan) have pretty high priority for the comming years

These statements were made by SN in the wake of the LH buy-in.
It is obvious that when LH buys the remaining shares of SN and adds 10 A330's to the fleet, JFK will be flown to. And if not, the JFK route is a long way from now as will be the 6th A330.

The question is: will LH buy SN and if so, when?

[cathay belgium]

Hi,

OFF-TOPIC, but as from now very important question concerning belgium aviation:
maybe open a new topic...

The question is: will LH buy SN and if so, when?

I will change the question :

1. Why won't LH buy SN immediately after they CAN ?
The made the first move .. but what's it worth just have 49 %.
Until now we'll seen just some starting moves ( 5th A330,A320 instead of B737's,destinations TXL-FRA
-... reorganisations, ... ), think SN is a bit on 'HOLD' now..
So again,what's the case if NOT ???
Better buy just 1,5 % extra .. my guess and leave the rest with the Belgians,cheaper and
you're the boss in any case
2. More interesting !
If LH doesn't buy SN, what future may we expect for SN concerning fleet renewals,new destinions,
future expansions, *A partnership or can we expect a contra move from another carrier?
( Skyteam ?? , we're almost in the middle of their bed )
3. As I see it we will see the full 100% to LH,but if it's better we got to see..
As we tought (again) some 15-years ago the same of Swiss but then ...

CX-B

Note : adds 10 A330's ????? Why,when,from where..
If you dream about that , first start to get some pax extra,maybe some extra A319,A320 and
what the heck 2 or 3 A321 ?? ( and for your pleasure an/some A319LR )
10 A330 never my guess, 2/3 maybe.. a fleet of 16 A330 for SN ? No way !
Maybe I'm a bit to pessimistic but as I see it , if more planes better some smaller/newer ones!
( with PTV ! )

[NCB]

SN has overcapacity on shorthaul and shortage of capacity on longhaul.
The logical progression is to build up the longhaul capacity which will also reduce the overcapacity on shorthaul, instead of adding shorthaul capacity which will have the adverse effect of increasing overcapacity.

More A319's are fine as long as they are used to increase midhaul capacity. I like to think of them as mini-A300's.
Actually an A319 with 73ton MTOW and 108 pax configuration would be sufficient to operate to 10, possibly 12 existing sub-saharian SN destinations and another 6 that are operated by AF but not by SN, point to point from BRU with 1 ton of freight and sufficient fuel reserves. If excessive fear and the exceptionally strong winds that blow 1 week over a year (that could be compensated by exceptional fuel stops) need to be covered for, then a 75.5 tons MTOW A319 with a 3 ton auxiliary tank would be needed and the 1 ton of freight revenue removed (auxiliary tank reduces hold capacity). Otherwise, it is possible to legally and safely conduct the flight under above specs.

The A333's can then be redeployed to missions that better fit the aircraft's profile, especially in Austral Africa where there is alot of potential for new underserved markets (Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, etc..) and A330 additions can be deployed to markets in Asia, US and South America (/A332HGW).

[TUB023]

personally i think the debat about the destinations will be endless . it's just a "wait and see"
rumours do have it that they are looking out for a 320 or 321 (couldn't hear the conversation clearly)

but hey, let's just focus on the coming birds ... i believe SSD and SF...Z?

[LJ]

Some seem to forget that there is competition at JFK to Africa as well: Arik Air, Air France, British Airways, EgyptAir.

Don't forget DL with its African flights and the other US airlines starting to serve Accra and Lagos from their hubs.

Though there is a market ex JFK, I don't believe this will be a money maker in the long run. We already see fares on flights between Europe and Nigeria/Ghana going down due to the competition of direct services from the US (and the emergence of Arik).

With more and more direct links between the US and Africa, less people will fly via Europe tpo Africa from the US. Furthermore, high yield traffic favours direct links instead of a one stop service

The A333's can then be redeployed to missions that better fit the aircraft's profile, especially in Austral Africa where there is alot of potential for new underserved markets (Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, etc..) and A330 additions can be deployed to markets in Asia, US and South America (/A332HGW).

I don't think Tanzania is underserved. KL flies during peak season 6 weekly flights, LX also serves DAR ( weekly) and BA has 3 weekly flights. Given the current economic problems (and boycott) in Zimbabwe, this destinations will probablyt be not intersting (and if then it would be served by LX as ZRH is a more logical destination for Zimbabwe. Lusaka is a niche destination and its BA service is probably sufficient for the market and Mozambique... Doesn't TAP already fly to Maputo for Star?

[RoMax]

The question is: will LH buy SN and if so, when?

Come on, why would LH buy 45% of SN and leave it like that. LH wants everything or nothing. LH will buy the remaining 55%, it's only a matter of when. But probably as fast as possible (April 2011)because they want to integrate SN, OS and BD so they can operate as best as possible to make a lot of profit. A minority 45% stake in SN means nothing for LH, they want all.

[NCB]

That is just not how it works in the airline world. SQ bought 49% into VS and now can't wait to get rid of it.
LH itself was forced to buy the remainder of BD though they had no intentions to do so.

LH bought the first 45% stake of SN for the peanuts price of 65 million euro.
How does 65 million compare to the 330 million Lufthansa lost in 2009? Peanuts.

Maybe they want to integrate SN, maybe not, no one knows for sure except for the LH board.

Geert: Lufthansa owns “call options,” which allows the group to buy the remaining 55 percent of the shares from 2011 onwards during 4 consecutive years, so it can happen between 2011 and 2015. It is [a] call option - this means Lufthansa has the right but not the obligation to buy these shares and become 100 percent owner of Brussels Airlines. We cannot speculate about what will happen, but the fact that this call option was negotiated and agreed says a lot of course.

http://www.eturbonews.com/13444/exclusi ... -interview

[RoMax]

That is just not how it works in the airline world. SQ bought 49% into VS and now can't wait to get rid of it.
LH itself was forced to buy the remainder of BD though they had no intentions to do so.

LH bought the first 45% stake of SN for the peanuts price of 65 million euro.
How does 65 million compare to the 330 million Lufthansa lost in 2009? Peanuts.

Maybe they want to integrate SN, maybe not, no one knows for sure except for the LH board.

Geert: Lufthansa owns “call options,” which allows the group to buy the remaining 55 percent of the shares from 2011 onwards during 4 consecutive years, so it can happen between 2011 and 2015. It is [a] call option - this means Lufthansa has the right but not the obligation to buy these shares and become 100 percent owner of Brussels Airlines. We cannot speculate about what will happen, but the fact that this call option was negotiated and agreed says a lot of course.

http://www.eturbonews.com/13444/exclusi ... -interview

Oh come on, it doesn't make any sence to hold a 45% stake in SN or even sell it back to another company. The AFI network is just to important to lose to BA, AF or something like that. They buyed SN only for their 80 years of experience in the AFI continent and their powerfull network to some unique destinations. But they can't do anything with this if they don't own SN for 100%. The call option with a 4 year period is just to give LH space to choose when there will be the best moment to buy SN. If LH sees that the value of SN is rising and rising they will buy SN as fast as possible. If LH would have the option to buy SN already at this time they would probably do it, because SN lost money the two past years but is expecting to make some profit this year and that will increase the value of SN. The value of SN will probably much higher over 5 years, so LH will not wait until then. That would only cost them a lot of money. And there is also another reason, if LH wants to beat AF in AFI, they will have to act quickly. Very quickly or they will loose. And SN is the most important part in the AFI expansion. Don't underestimate SN's experience and knowledge in the AFI aviation world. Why do you think they take the risk to invest in Korongo, only because they have the power (in Congo), the experience and the knowledge to do that. You should know that the airport of Lubumbashi isn't in good shape and needs to be renovated before Korongo will start operations. The Congolese investers in Korongo are now pushing and even almost sabotaging the Congolese government to renovate the airport immediatly, and this under pressure of SN as they want to launch Korongo this year (this year DRC is 50 years independent). Do you think each European airline would achieve that?
LH really knows this, and they want SN for 100% not for 45%. They want to invest in SN, believe me, AFI is to important to lose.

[NCB]

We all hope for the same, just at different levels of optimism I guess.
SN has experience in Africa, but LH now bought full access to all aspects of this experience and it could easily transfer it to FRA to start their own thing and compete head to head with Air France.

The way SN is operating now is not hurting AF much.
An average of 2500 seats per day between 2 continents with accummulated populations of over 1.5 billion people.
That is not something that we can call "a network". I prefer to call it a drop in the ocean.

[cathay belgium]

Hi NCB,

An average of 2500 seats per day between 2 continents with accummulated populations of over 1.5 billion people.
That is not something that we can call "a network". I prefer to call it a drop in the ocean.

At first when I read this you can say you're right!
But just one second later, oh nooooo !

Let's be realistic.
Indeed there should be something like 1,5 billion people in AFI but in terms of air-traffic on especially
on long-haul / ex-the continent , my guess the real number comes A very very much LESS !!!
On the scale of 1,5 billion people, a lot of them earn not more then 10 ?? 1 ?? dollar a day,
people having trouble of being murdered,rape and if they find out a way to survive, hunger and
having drinking water..
My guess air-travel didn't even come up in their mind.
So who's travelling, we and some lucky numbers of that civilisations which have the opportunity to travel,
visiting relatives or doing business..
I don't say there's nothing more to explore for SN, but I don't think there much evolution FROM AFI view!
Let's say the cake can be divided on other bases/carriers..
If there's an oppurtunity SN will find it out with Korongo and then we'll see an A330 to Lubumbashi ?
We'll see
I call 2500 pax a day a fine start !
Don't forget we're (SN) belgium , no AF nor BA ! and we got to listen to a big german father
(behind the scenes until now ) !


CX-B

[Vinnie-Winnie]

Not to question you on this, but it does appear that China is now heavily investing in Africa. Surely this must bring some business opportunitie? I don't know if Hainan feeds a lot of pax to the Africa flights.

Negligeable I believe compared to the US -AFI market

You forgot about 9W and DL.
9W has daily EWR and DL/9W both have daily JFK.
When you cover someone else's back do it decently.

5 airlines covering NYC and you say that JFK is a top priority for SN as a point to point because "it's losing half of the revenue". Make me laugh.

If you had read my reply you would have clearly seen that I'm taking about connecting pax. P2P on its own may be more difficult, but could work under the star alliance umbrella (Which 9W & DL are not part of)

There is nothing indecent abotu serving JFK btw...

But SN will need good service for that (AVOD IFE's in economy included), so they will need a lot of help of their "mother" LH. But they can do it.

AVOD IFE is a gimmick. What SN needs is good timing & good prices, with a good business class offering.

[fretn]

if they could just install power adapters into the seats, i wouldn't even miss avod...

[RoMax]

We all hope for the same, just at different levels of optimism I guess.
SN has experience in Africa, but LH now bought full access to all aspects of this experience and it could easily transfer it to FRA to start their own thing and compete head to head with Air France.

The way SN is operating now is not hurting AF much.
An average of 2500 seats per day between 2 continents with accummulated populations of over 1.5 billion people.
That is not something that we can call "a network". I prefer to call it a drop in the ocean.

Please understand that a very big part of Africa just don't work out of Germany, Great Brittain, Switserland... But only out of Belgium and France. The big markets (lagos, Addis Abbeba, Johanesburg...) in AFI do work out of other EU markets, but not the unique destinations that AF and SN serve.
Please understand how important these markets are and will be in the future. At that level the amount of seats doesn't even count.
And please believe me, SN hurt AF not that much but they do. And everytime SN is expanding to existing AF markets they will hurt AF/KLM more and more and more. And that's JUST what LH wants!

[Conti764]

The way SN is operating now is not hurting AF much.
An average of 2500 seats per day between 2 continents with accummulated populations of over 1.5 billion people.
That is not something that we can call "a network". I prefer to call it a drop in the ocean.

And what percentage of those 1.5 billion people can afford to fly? If you see the yields on some of SN's destinations, then I'd definitely say SN has a pretty nice network soon covering 18 African destinations. In total numbers it is small compared to AF's 27 subsaharian destinations, but in relative numbers it is a great operation. Untill the LH participation, SN was virtually on it's own and until december SN wasn't even in any alliance. So having 18 African destinations and turning profit on them is a great achievement for SN, which makes me believe more is possible.

Compared to KL, which is a much bigger company, SN has 6 more African destinations (18 > 12), even the bigger LX (5) and behemoth LH (12) can't match SN's African network and that's exactly why LH participates in and eventually will own SN, for their great network and expertise on the black continent. It must be one of the most difficult markets to operate into (no or less suitable infrastructure, no or less security, local habits,...)

There is no point in acquiring SN for their niche market only to absorb it. LH could easily absorb SN's African network and clients, but they still wouldn't get their hands on SN's prestige, knowledge and experience. And that's the reason why LH is interested in SN. Accept for LX, which operates from and to a business oriented and rich market (Switzerland), SN is the most interesting asset of LH's expansion through Europe, more then Austrian or BMI, with the first serving a market LH can easily cater for itself and the latter almost being reduced to a feeder airline. No, SN will not be dropped by LH and the Germans will go forward with their plans about SN. Due to the recent financial results, LH might delay a full acquisition of SN over a few years, but in the end, SN will end up fully with LH like LX did some years ago.

[LJ]

Compared to KL, which is a much bigger company, SN has 6 more African destinations (18 > 12), even the bigger LX (5) and behemoth LH (12) can't match SN's African network and that's exactly why LH participates in and eventually will own SN, for their great network and expertise on the black continent.

You are correct in number of destinations, but then again KL has hub in Africa (which SN still doesn't have) and KL offers much more capacity Africa. However, comparing KL (and BA, LX and LH) with SN is like comparing apples with oranges. Unlike AF and SN, these airlines have no business in serving French speaking Africa. Hence also the reason why LH bought their share into SN (as the AF/KL would be too dominant in the African market, and thus leaving Africa to AF/KL).

[NCB]

Untill the LH participation, SN was virtually on it's own and until december SN wasn't even in any alliance. So having 18 African destinations and turning profit on them is a great achievement for SN, which makes me believe more is possible.

Agreed.
I think that SN has a good basis in Africa, so it must expand its capacity there drastically to get a network, to make real profits and become a strong and stable player, not just a challenger.
The difference between doing it or not doing it is that 10 years from now SN can be either the Singapore Airlines of Africa or a regional feeder for FRA because other players eat up on their market piece by piece.

Korongo is a great start and Lubumbashi is an excellent choice in terms of location for a hub in Austral Africa. The issue is that things are moving way too slow. The start-up has been postponed to September, there's uncertainty about when to send the BAe's, etc...

And what percentage of those 1.5 billion people can afford to fly? If you see the yields on some of SN's destinations

Do bother to read what is being written:

2 continents with accummulated populations of over 1.5 billion people

Africa is a continent of 1 billion people. Europe is a continent of 0.75 billion people.

SN will get my unconditional praise the day that the African network looks like this:

[FLYAIR10]

Referring to a lot of earlier messages on this forum,I think most of us agree that expanding the long haul network is the way to go for SN.And this as soon as possible. Risks are there ,but doing nothing ,or to slow, is also risky.After all entrepreneuring means taking some risks..
In this context I would like to raise again my my earlier expressed idea of adding some freighter capacity to SN 's operation;

Could acquiring a A-330 200F not be interesting for SN?
After the demise of both CargoB and MK airlines, there is a shortage of Freight capacity towards Africa. SN has the local offices, the A-330 pilots and the expertise on Africa. The demand is already there,certainly on certain destinations where shipments have to wait several flights to get onboard sometimes.. As we have seen in previous postings on this forum (cfr "the A-319 to Africa" story) cargo-business towards Africa is already important for SN and is representing an interesting part of their income. So, operating a A-330F to certain destinations could probably be economically justified and bring in additional earnings. I believe Freight to South-Africa is already selling at more than EUR6/kg! (shortage of air-capacity,frequent strikes in the ports + rising demand!) But other destinations are apparantly alsy crying for extra capacity.
Also, LH Cargo could feed some extra cargo from Germany and elsewhere in Europe(and Asia).
And, it's not only US/CAN originating passengers who need connections to Africa.There is also quite some transatlantic cargo which has African countries as destination!

So, to summarize,it would be nice if A-330 nr 7(and 8) could be a freighter.(and acquiring nr 6 PAX SOON receive the green light). Of course introduction of 2 747-Combi would also be nice..

Grtz
Flyair10