5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

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kiwiandrew
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by kiwiandrew »

NCB wrote: A 6th A333 should be used to add frequencies and routes in Africa, not venture on a suicide mission.
We'll talk about it when the 7th A333 is ordered but if I were the one to chose, I would send it to HKG rather than to NYC.

Could I ask why you would send it to a OW hub ? I am not saying that you have got it wrong , I just would be interested in your reasoning for selecting HKG over other cities which are *A hubs . ( personally I prefer HKG myself over BKK or SIN , but I am wondering about the economics of selecting a OW hub as the first destination in Asia ) .

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Conti764
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by Conti764 »

MR_Boeing wrote: Please keep all of you in mind that SN's main reason for transatlantic flights still is: CONNECTIONS TO AFI. More than 12% (and still rising enormous)of all AFI pax originates in the US and SN doesn't want to relay completely on partners for all these pax. CO is "not really waiting" for SN to codeshare because they have undercapacity on the EWR-BRU route.
If SN will launch any transatlantic flight, it will be one with good connections to all/most AFI destinations! ;)
It's no secret that there is a nice market for evening flights to and from NYC, even when they don't connecto to Africa smoothly.

If the morning rush between BRU and NYC could warrant a second daily flight, CO would already have started such flight, with or without SN. It seems that the current morning capacity between BRU and NYC isn't as big as we all obviously think, accept for some periods a year.

It is better to cater for the evening flights ex-NYC which would then connect to SN's European network and some African destinations. The African connection can be filled with the input of alliance partners passengers.

When Africa is sufficiently covered, I'd go for some A332's to build a subfleet for non-African long haul (transatlantic or asian). Keep the A333's for valuable African triangular flights, maybe have one or two A332's to those African destinations that can sustain a decoupled, direct flight but keep the majority of A332's for other long haul flights, alongside Africa.

A fleet of about 6 A333's and 6 A332's should be sufficient to serve all the markets SN can profitably do, for other flights, rely on Star Alliance partners where possible. I am talking about the medium term.

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Conti764
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by Conti764 »

kiwiandrew wrote:
NCB wrote: A 6th A333 should be used to add frequencies and routes in Africa, not venture on a suicide mission.
We'll talk about it when the 7th A333 is ordered but if I were the one to chose, I would send it to HKG rather than to NYC.

Could I ask why you would send it to a OW hub ? I am not saying that you have got it wrong , I just would be interested in your reasoning for selecting HKG over other cities which are *A hubs . ( personally I prefer HKG myself over BKK or SIN , but I am wondering about the economics of selecting a OW hub as the first destination in Asia ) .
If SN can fill a plane to SIN or BKK, or Japan for that matter, the respective Star Alliance partners can do the same. IMHO it is better to preserve your resources to cater for markets where you can bring something to the table. If I remember correctly, accept for Africa, HKG was one of the very few long haul destinations making money for Sabena. So there obviously is a market. Or at least was as market. It's up to the boys and girls of Brussels Airlines to determine whether that market is still available or not.

NCB

Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by NCB »

HKG is very interesting.
True, it's not a Star hub but there is considerable Star traffic like NH, NZ, AI, AC, SQ and if needed, SN can even open up to Hainan Airlines subsidiary Hong Kong Airlines.
Also, sometimes if you are not particularily desperate for feeding, it could be more lucrative to fly to places where alliance partners are not very present/dominant because they could be bringing more competition to the table than cooperation.

I think that the main argument is that before anything, Hong Kong can generate significant point to point traffic 1. especially business in premium classes, 2. from tourists who have a little bit more money than those who want to visit NYC and 3. connections to/from Africa. There is alot of business going on between Hong Kong and Africa.
Finally, going through BRU is a great alternative for UK travellers compared to LHR, especially if SN fails to find a reason not to operate to LCY.

There are only 2 issues: 1. the route's range demands an A332 and 2. Hainan may or may not start the route before SN, through Hong Kong airlines.
When Africa is sufficiently covered, I'd go for some A332's to build a subfleet for non-African long haul (transatlantic or asian). Keep the A333's for valuable African triangular flights, maybe have one or two A332's to those African destinations that can sustain a decoupled, direct flight but keep the majority of A332's for other long haul flights, alongside Africa.
Good idea.

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YYZ727
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by YYZ727 »

Conti764 wrote:[ If I remember correctly, accept for Africa, HKG was one of the very few long haul destinations making money for Sabena.
I don't remember SN flying to Hong Kong. (at least not since the late seventies...)

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tolipanebas
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by tolipanebas »

YYZ727 wrote:
Conti764 wrote:If I remember correctly, accept for Africa, HKG was one of the very few long haul destinations making money for Sabena.
I don't remember SN flying to Hong Kong. (at least not since the late seventies...)
Indeed, which is probably also why it was one of the 'better' Asian destinations of theirs then! :lol:

Really, let's not get carried away here: other than more frequencies and a few more dots in Central Africa, the only expansion on long haul routes for SN it to be situated on the East Coast of the USA. Anything other than that is just too crazy for words really. If the LH group wants to increase frequencies or open a new long haul destination, I am sure they have more valuable brands to do this through than SN...

BigJets
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by BigJets »

The destinations that Sabena flew in Asia (aside from the middle east) were the following:

Bombay
Madras
Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Singapore
Manila
Tokyo

Sabena NEVER flew to Hong Kong. The closest Sabena ever got to Hong Kong was in code share with TAP Air Portugal (Using TAP A340-300) to neighboring Macao.

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cathay belgium
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by cathay belgium »

Hi,
BigJets wrote:The destinations that Sabena flew in Asia (aside from the middle east) were the following:

Bombay
Madras
Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Singapore
Manila
Tokyo
So as I see :
Bombay - Madras = Jet Airways
Bangkok = *A/ TG future.. maybe Bangkok/Phuket in code share with charter JAF as SN did once
( my first longhaul flight with SLR/SN codeshare )
Kuala Lumpur .. don't know good luck trying,but with LH in the east and MH from AMS I doubt it !
Jakarta = KLM is doing there best,Garada started operations again so .. nope
( BTW Jakarta is better for AMS / keep us focus-ed on AFI/Korongo )
Singapore : like to see a megatop in BRU again but SN ,don't think so..
Manila .. maybe,never tought of it but is there a demand to /from Manila?
( think this route is better to be flown with Ethihad/Emirates concerning there business with Manila workers)
Tokyo .. GO FOR IT !! ( Must be started already )

So besides Tokyo I don't see much future in SN historic routes again.
Keep the focus on Africa ! Middle-East and some special routes to the USA ( BOS? ).
Asia is better served already from our neighbouring countries/carriers.
SN can't fight a Emirates/Ethihad/JetAirways/KLM/LH?/CX/TG/...
Too young but even more too late..

Instead of searching it further away better keep the focus on intra-european routes and
the AVRO/737 renewals as this could be more endangered due to LH strikes,positioning of
direct concurrent routes !!

CX-B
New types flown 2024 : DO228, A338 , PC6

NCB

Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by NCB »

Tokyo will be operated by NH soon but if SN can start the route sooner than NH, it would be a great deal and NH may have to pull back to another destination. There could be some high yield potential to Africa: besides the investment traffic, some business from the machineries and automotives sector.
HKG vs. NRT would be worth considering.
Bangkok is low-yield tourists, forget about it.
Manila, low on business, high on tourists.

LH can't expand at FRA and MUC is a liability for new Asian routes.
8 widebodies a day to the U.S. for a small city and country like Brussels and Belgium is already alot.

The Avro replacement will come and god help us, send us anything but the Embraers and Sukhois, even if deliveries slip into 2014-2015. LH will have Avro's to spare by then so even if SN terminates the leases on the current aircraft, they can get all the interim capacity they need to fill the gap until the new generation of RJ's come in.
It's better to wait a dozen months and get the new generation aircraft than to be hasty and get stuck with aircraft that have 20% higher operating cost over the next 20 years inside the company. I vote MRJ.

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Vinnie-Winnie
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by Vinnie-Winnie »

NCB wrote:LH can't expand at FRA and MUC is a liability for new Asian routes.
8 widebodies a day to the U.S. for a small city and country like Brussels and Belgium is already alot.
And why is that?

Bavaria: 12,519,312 inhabitants, € 429,86 billion GDP
Belgium: 10,827,519 inhabitants, $470.400 billion GDP

What are you talking about honestly? U claim to be very knowledgeable, well U'd know that Germany is a very export orientated country. I'll let you do the maths, but your assertion is ridiculous...

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Conti764
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by Conti764 »

tolipanebas wrote:
YYZ727 wrote:
Conti764 wrote:If I remember correctly, accept for Africa, HKG was one of the very few long haul destinations making money for Sabena.
I don't remember SN flying to Hong Kong. (at least not since the late seventies...)
Indeed, which is probably also why it was one of the 'better' Asian destinations of theirs then!
Whoops... I always mix HKG with NRT... :oops:

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tolipanebas
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by tolipanebas »

Why couldn't LH expand at FRA or MUC?

FRA is highly busy for sure, but there's a 3rd RWY coming (not like in LHR where they've been talking about it for ages, in FRA it is really happening) so capacity will rise and LH will be able to expand at FRA again in a couple of years.

Meanwhile, MUC has room left and LH is currently building its second hub faster than you can blink your eyes; just look at the number of long haul routes they have announced for MUC over the last 2 years.

Oh, and then there's always 'little' DUS, which although small in LH's eyes, is actually a larger hub than BRU or VIE, so If LH wants to add another long haul flight and would like to place it elsewhere than MUC to diversify its offer and compete with AMS, DUS would be great, no need to go to BRU and market the flight under the SN name!

Not to mention LH also has LX and OS as alternatives, which are both far better at serving Asia than SN.

In the case of OS, they are even said to be going to focus more on that market in the future, so suggesting SN would serve a single (or a few) Asian destination(s) is as crazy as suggesting OS would suddenly start serving a single (or a few) East-African destination(s).

Really, some here give proof of not understanding the LH concept. SN is going to be their MAIN brand on Africa (and there alone), yet any other long haul expansion from BRU MUST be driven PURELY by point-to-point traffic. Some US East Coast destinations thus come in view, but that's about it really. Non-stop demand for anything else isn't strong enough to warrant flights from BRU and the network for feeding such flights is much much stronger at FRA, MUC, ZRH or even VIE, so that's where they will be added.

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fretn
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by fretn »

wrong read.

Bralo20
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by Bralo20 »

NCB wrote: The Avro replacement will come and god help us, send us anything but the Embraers and Sukhois, even if deliveries slip into 2014-2015. LH will have Avro's to spare by then so even if SN terminates the leases on the current aircraft, they can get all the interim capacity they need to fill the gap until the new generation of RJ's come in.
It's better to wait a dozen months and get the new generation aircraft than to be hasty and get stuck with aircraft that have 20% higher operating cost over the next 20 years inside the company. I vote MRJ.
The Embraers (17x/19x) are very good aircraft... Especially from a passengers point of view... And sometimes it's better to buy current technology which has proven to be solid then buying technology which is still yet to be proved... The biggest MRJ has less capacity then the E195 from Embraer. On the other hand the MRJ is a few centimeters wider and higher inside.

I'm in favour for the Embraer's... But wait, isn't this discussion for another thread?


So, back to the big bird, the A333... Any pictures yet from the current state?

NCB

Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by NCB »

Really, some here give proof of not understanding the LH concept. SN is going to be their MAIN brand on Africa (and there alone), yet any other long haul expansion from BRU MUST be driven PURELY by point-to-point traffic. Some US East Coast destinations thus come in view, but that's about it really. Non-stop demand for anything else isn't strong enough to warrant flights from BRU and the network for feeding such flights is much much stronger at FRA, MUC, ZRH or even VIE, so that's where they will be added.tolipanebas
You seem to have no clue about LH yourself.
What is LX's focus? They have a network in Asia (what a coincidence, HKG and NRT), they fly to Africa and they also fly to the US. Is it in LH's interest to make of BRU an African super hub with 40 longhaul departures every day? Forget it.
LH will be sending an A380 to JFK as well, and they are already serving BOS with the help of feeding.

I will allow myself to correct you: any new longhaul expansion at BRU must be driven by point to point high-yield demand. AND some Africa traffic potential to fill the remaining seats.

FRA does already have 3 runways, the 4th runway is under construction.
But LH's capacity expansion at FRA will happen through usage of larger aircraft like the B748, the A380 and in the narrowbodies class, the A321. The added runway capacity will only help them better organise the feeding and longhaul departure waves because there is little room for new destinations or frequencies in their current network. MUC is stagnating and DUS will soon too.

BOS was operated by various Sabena equipments (A310, A332, A333, A342, A343) because it was hard to match capacity with demand, due to extensive feeding as Sabena was one of few European airlines to operate the route.
The route was performing well in the high season but was loss-making due to low-yields outside the season. JFK seldomly made a dime to Sabena and unless operated with an A332 or smaller, in a high-yield offset pattern with connections to a second wave of Africa departures with significant outbound flights, I predict disaster.
Cowboys initially thought to be very knowledgeable made the mistake in the VG/Delsey Airlines adventure, a great example of the failure of a point to point BRU-US concept. JFK and BOS have been a longstanding addicition that is best avoided in a small longhaul operation where things can turn sour very quickly.

It may come as a surprise to many of you, but Tokyo didn't make alot of money either, it was very often loss-making to Sabena because of low-yielding traffic (tour groups, etc...) itself caused by excessive capacity.
Either way, Hong Kong or Tokyo can offer better expansion potential to SN than JFK or BOS, especially in the context of the Star Alliance network and Africa as primary focus. Not surprisingly, LX focused alot of its focus on Hong Kong and Tokyo since the early days.

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tolipanebas
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by tolipanebas »

NCB wrote: You seem to have no clue about LH yourself.
I obviously don't know what I am talking about indeed, but you seem to have a great plan... :roll:

DEN was it, right? :lol:

BTW, that quote on SN's future mission as part of the LH group you absolutely wanted to correct, in fact comes straight from a corporate presentation of LH on the employees website. But hey, maybe you even know LH better then they do themselves! :mrgreen:

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tolipanebas
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by tolipanebas »

Is it in LH's interest to make of BRU an African super hub with 40 longhaul departures every day? Forget it.
Who is talking about a superhub with 20, 30, 40 or even more daily departures to AFI?
The only one is you, in your A320s to AFI project.
any new longhaul expansion at BRU must be driven by point-to-point high-yield demand AND some Africa traffic potential to fill the remaining seats.
The usage of the 5th A330 already disproved your correction BTW, as it will be solely deployed on 4 new African destinations which are aimed predominantly at connecting pax... :roll:

As such, reality is it is exactly the other way round indeed, just as I have plucked it from LH's presentation.

NCB

Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by NCB »

The way I see it is that the expansion at FRA could be very interesting to add a few dozen destinations to Africa, if anything. Investors talk with their heart and think with their wallet.

Look at BD.
BD will not become a regional airline, BD will not ... abracadabra, BD is our leading regional airline in the UK.
Who is talking about a superhub with 20, 30, 40 or even more daily departures to AFI?
The only one is you, in your A320s to AFI project.
The A319 concept is a midhaul concept, you should know better that 6 hour trips can not be qualified as longhauls. An operation of max. 18 departures per day can not be qualified as "superhub", but you failed to understand that.
I am still waiting for your counter-analysis on the A319's to the 18 specific destinations in West Africa and I fear that it will never come because you have admitted yourself recently following my analysis of A319 performance, that it can be operated within legal and safe operational margins.
The usage of the 5th A330 already disproved your correction BTW, as it will be solely deployed on 4 new African destinations which are aimed predominantly at connecting pax...
You were the one to mention point to point, remember:
Really, some here give proof of not understanding the LH concept. SN is going to be their MAIN brand on Africa (and there alone), yet any other long haul expansion from BRU MUST be driven PURELY by point-to-point traffic.
Now I'm not even sure that you understand yourself. Being a pilot doesn't qualify you to say things that you imagine to be true. If you think that the US East coast should be operated in the morning using the 6th A333, then surely you don't know what you are talking about.
What you are asking for is a corporate jet to please your needs as standby seats traveller.

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Vinnie-Winnie
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Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by Vinnie-Winnie »

tolipanebas wrote:
Really, some here give proof of not understanding the LH concept. SN is going to be their MAIN brand on Africa (and there alone), yet any other long haul expansion from BRU MUST be driven PURELY by point-to-point traffic. Some US East Coast destinations thus come in view, but that's about it really. Non-stop demand for anything else isn't strong enough to warrant flights from BRU and the network for feeding such flights is much much stronger at FRA, MUC, ZRH or even VIE, so that's where they will be added.
Exactly :)
NCB wrote: Now I'm not even sure that you understand yourself. Being a pilot doesn't qualify you to say things that you imagine to be true. If you think that the US East coast should be operated in the morning using the 6th A333, then surely you don't know what you are talking about.
What you are asking for is a corporate jet to please your needs as standby seats traveller.
If you read tolipanebas correctly (Who btw has more access to info than you do), SN strategy in LH group is to focus on AFI and become the LH's minihub of AFI. Now think a little where do you get the most traffic from for AFI destinations? Asia or America? Didn't I read somewhere else that Continental was unable to codeshare flights to Africa due to lack of space? And anyway why give up half the revenue to another airline if you can earn it yourself?

You are totally forgetting the network effect here. SN can and will only fly long haul if it has enough P2P and connecting passengers. That is why the NYC is probably a given in a few years time. It's not only about overcapacity on the route, it's about what kind and quality of feed a new route could bring.

PS: Was talking to a cachier at my bank here in DC, and she just told me that she had done IAD - BRU - Gambia and return. That is the traffic we are talking about.

Now can dream on far flung flights to the east but right now SN just does not have the feed to justify it.

b-west

Re: 5th A330 for Brussels Airlines

Post by b-west »

Vinnie-Winnie wrote: If you read tolipanebas correctly (Who btw has more access to info than you do), SN strategy in LH group is to focus on AFI and become the LH's minihub of AFI. Now think a little where do you get the most traffic from for AFI destinations? Asia or America? Didn't I read somewhere else that Continental was unable to codeshare flights to Africa due to lack of space? And anyway why give up half the revenue to another airline if you can earn it yourself?
.
Not to question you on this, but it does appear that China is now heavily investing in Africa. Surely this must bring some business opportunitie? I don't know if Hainan feeds a lot of pax to the Africa flights.

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