Flights cancelled due to volcanic ash cloud from Iceland, Eyjafjallajokull

[FlightMate]

I understand your point of view, tolipanebas, working for an airline that doesn't make much money in normal times...

But knowing what volcanic ashes can cause to aircraft (multiple engines flame-out, loss of Air Data -> instruments), it is certainly a situation I don't want to encounter.

1 crash because of this ash cloud, even if 10.000 flights make it safely, would be too much.

So for the colleagues stuck in Belgium: enjoy your time off!
For the ones (like me), stuck abroad: enjoy your time there! (even if I'd rather be home with my family)

[Desert Rat]

Air France did a Dubai-Toulouse, I guess the A/C was in DXB and instead of leaving it here they have decided to fly it to Toulouse with the passengers OK with this option.

[airazurxtror]

we're indeed being fooled here by a bunch of overly cautious nerdy scientists who scare the hell out of some civil servants as they enjoy their moment of glory, just like happened with that Mexican Flue joke of a couple of months ago, a pandemic disaster for which people were scared for months in a row, yet which went by hardly unnoticed in the end.[/b]

My opinion exactly.

[tolipanebas]

Lets put you than in a testflight up to flightlevel 250!!!
Since you are so sure that everybody is wrong and you are right.

It's not just me who thinks the total closure of the entire European airspace is based on overly cautious estimations from a single source which is known to prefer worst case scenario's (e.g. they also have some very extreme long term outlooks on climate change for instance), it's some of the biggest airlines in the world: KLM-AF!

KLM is going to conduct several more test flights today to proof their point and they are going to actively start lobbying AGAINST the outright closure of the airspace, according to its CEO, because the test flight of last evening has clearly shown there is NO ASH in the area whatsoever... in fact, ironically, it was said the air above the Netherlands was cleaner than during the Pinatubo eruption of a couple of years ago (yes, that volcano sent an ash cloud all around the globe, yet nobody stopped flying, other than in a limited area around the volcano itself).

the above is not an estimation, not a calculation, nor just a theory, its a real world OBSERVATION!

From the KLM press release on this test flight:

KLM test flight passes without problem

KLM Royal Dutch Airlines carried out a test flight this evening between about 19.45 and 21:00 hours CEST in Netherlands airspace using a Boeing 737-800. The flight was carried out to establish whether air quality in the atmosphere meets the requirements for safe flight. No problems were encountered during the flight.

The aircraft was transferred to a hangar on landing where it underwent a thorough inspection. The results have been reported to the Transport and Water Management Inspectorate. The Inspectorate will take the decision on whether flight operations are possible.

KLM President & CEO, Peter Hartman, said: "At first glance there is no reason to suspect that anything is amiss. We observed no irregularities either during the flight or during the initial inspection on the ground. If the results of the technical inspection confirm this impression, we are ready to start by returning seven of our aircraft to Amsterdam from Düsseldorf. We hope to receive permission as soon as possible after that to start up our operation and to transport our passengers to their destinations."

The aircraft flew to 41,000 feet (altitude of approximately 13 kilometres), which is the maximum altitude for this type of aircraft. KLM expects to receive the final results of the technical inspection tomorrow morning.

Don't expect them to just say "bad luck" if they are not let to fly soon, it sounds....

First of all it is been observed and checked that these vulcanic ashes of this volcano only reach to a level of about 280 and not under 150
so the test flight the KLM A/C did according to your information was WAY above that level.

Great, and how do you think that plane got to FL410 from AMS then?

As you already said, not much is known about the affects and the concentrations of vulcanic ash, the only thing thats sure, that already a couple of flights lost engine power because of flying through vulcanic ashes.

Look, although there isn't much theoretical knowlegde around indeed, there is a lot known on what is and what is not possible from previous experiences.
It is common knowledge that flying through ash cloulds or flying in the downwind vicinity of an ash clould is very dangerous indeed. KLM is one of the airlines which probably has the most experience with this, as they had a plane of theirs accidentally fly through such an ash clould over Alaska in 1989 I think it was, temporarily loosing all of its engines because of it.

But let's get real here for a minute shall we?

Just like with a chimney, the volcanic clould dissipates as it gets further away and so the density of the contamination in the air is reduced as it is carried further. The theory now standing is that the air mass over let's say central Europe or even as far as Ukraine is still dangerously saturated with ash particles, whereas reality from the past is that at distanes of a few hundreds of miles away from the volcano, the PPM concentration is hardly detectable really, as also demonstrated by several flights which flew in the allegedly affected areas over the benelux or Germany, amongst which that KLM flight, but also a couple of LH repositioning flights to FRA.

However, the mathematical model used to decide the closure on doesn't take into account concentration levels, only the spreading, whereas everybody knows there's a difference between living right next to a poluting factory chimney and living 30kms away from it!

Ironically, Russian airspace has remained open and Russian airlines have been flying pretty freely in Western Russia, even though it is well in the "ash cover" region. Since it is unlikely the concentration magically drops right at the Russian border, the only logical conclusion is that the concentration further away from the volcano is unharmful indeed! Hence the need to test to see what levels of ash concentration are okay, and at what point it becomes safe. My educated guess is that Central Europe and much of the UK should be just fine, let alone all the other more distant countries!

Conclusion for me: That untill that time that much more is known of the consequences, i would rather be safe than sorrow.

The conclusion to me is that thanks to supercomputers now able to calculate large air flows over longer periods of time, we're in a position to calculate theoretical scenario's which nobody could even start to predict before, and it increasingly seems some scientiests just got carrier away here by their own mathematical models, without actually checking if what they find on the screen as a possible outcome, still matches with reality.

It looks not, and it seems like this is just another Mexican flue Pandemic scam really...

[Bralo20]

KLM is going to conduct several test flights today to proof their point and is going to actively start lobbying AGAINST the outright closure of the airspace, according to its CEO, because the test flight of last evening has shown there is NO ASH in the area... in fact, ironically, it was said the air above the Netherlands was cleaner than during the Pinatubo eruption of a couple of years ago (yes, that volcano sent an ash cloud all around the globe, yet nobody stopped flying, other than in a limited area around the volcano itself).

the above is not an estimation, not a calculation, nor just a theory, its a real world OBSERVATION!

KL did 1 testflight above Amsterdam FIR, not more, not less... The only thing proven is that the concentration of the ash at that moment in that particular airspace was good enough to fly through. That's all. The other flights they will conduct are ferryflights, not testflights. The ferryflights will stay at FL150 and will thus stay under the ashcloud.

What KL is trying to do is to start a huge amount of pressure on the government. But even if the Dutch governments bows for the pressure there is still no flying involved for KL since all surrounding airspaces are closed and VFR operations are also forbidden in mean time.

Is the whole closure an overreaction? Possible but maybe not... Events like this didn't occur in the past so there's not a single event to rely on, we only know that volcanic ash is possibly deadly for instruments and engines, however wwe don't know the concentration of ash needed to do so...

A genuine test should be done over the complete affected airspace in Europe, with a plane equipped with testequipment (and not a standard off the shelf Boeing 737 with no measure instruments at all). And if KL is still believing that it's safe to fly they could follow the testplane through all Europe and through all layers and altitudes...

But I doubt this would happen

[Kapitein]

Airspace closed until 2000LT

[tolipanebas]

KL did 1 testflight above Amsterdam FIR, not more, not less... The only thing proven is that the concentration of the ash at that moment in that particular airspace was good enough to fly through. That's all. The other flights they will conduct are ferryflights, not testflights. The ferryflights will stay at FL150 and will thus stay under the ashcloud.

One observation????

Lufthansa spokesman Klaus Walther has just said that during the ferry flights of several LH jets from MUC to FRA, some of the 747-400s actually climbed up to FL 245. After landing in FRA all planes were thouroughly inspected by engineers, yet no abnormal findings were made one either of them.

He added LH urges the authorities not just to rely on mathematical simulations but to take actual measurements before setting up or extending harsh no-fly restrictions.

What KL is trying to do is to start a huge amount of pressure on the government.

Looks to me as if more and more airlines are beginning to publicly question the fundamental scientific basis on which this crippling airspace closure is based upon, especially as no observation of ash is being done by the authorities, which just rely on a mathematical model...

Is the whole closure an overreaction? Possible but maybe not... Events like this didn't occur in the past so there's not a single event to rely on, we only know that volcanic ash is possibly deadly for instruments and engines, however we don't know the concentration of ash needed to do so...

Actually, you make it sound as if no volcano has ever erupted before, whereas obviously there have been numerous massive volcanic eruptions in the past, and all of them have been dealt with in pretty much the same way: avoid the area by a couple of hundred miles, and at all costs stay clear of the cloud itself. What is new is that for the first time, we're basing decisions on a mathematical model which is estimating the spead of the contamination over time, without taking into account the contiamination levels!!!!

If we'd used this same model during the Pinatubo eruption for instance, aviation would probably have been halted allover the world! Yet the model wasn't around yet, so everybody just used some common sense, kept flying (and avoiding where needed) and everything was just fine. Sobering thoughs, i'd say...

[cathay belgium]

Hi,

First :

After a waiting time of 26 minutes flight to CTA was booked to a later date (fri 23/4)
with a very friendly girl at the call-center.

Second:

What KLM do is irresponsible, since when are they a scientifical organisation?
They test a tiny bit of the european aerospace and with this very specific data
they put the governments under high pressure.
( Something like a polish president tried/are said that he tried a few days ago ! )
Maybe they can put the whole KLM&AF management on a test plane and have a flight trough the clouds
just to prove !
If the're right.. okay if not even a better solution for SN & *A !

CX-B

[airazurxtror]

Hi,
What KLM do is irresponsible, since when are they a scientifical organisation?
They test a tiny bit of the european aerospace and with this very specific data
they put the governments under high pressure.

Since when are Schouppe and Belgocontrol or Eurocontrol scientific organisations ?
It's high time one put them under pressure to act reasonably, not as paranoiacs.

[Acid-drop]

we're indeed being fooled here by a bunch of overly cautious nerdy scientists who scare the hell out of some civil servants as they enjoy their moment of glory, just like happened with that Mexican Flue joke of a couple of months ago, a pandemic disaster for which people were scared for months in a row, yet which went by hardly unnoticed in the end.[/b]

My opinion exactly.

My opinion too. And the opinion of an increasing number of people ...

He added LH urges the authorities not just to rely on mathematical simulations but to take actual measurements before setting up or extending harsh no-fly restrictions.

No Kidding ... some clowns stop the world spinning just because they don't have a clue of what's happening.
All this is theorical, there are no real mesurments. Some people play at being god here.

What KLM do is irresponsible, since when are they a scientifical organisation?
They test a tiny bit of the european aerospace and with this very specific data
they put the governments under high pressure.

KLM, LH and probably less verbose others are seeing the same, they got manipulated and they now want to see what is the real situation. In some way, it's risky because they don't have a clue, but at least this is a scientific approach ... the only one until now.

The "better safe than sorry" argument in 2010 is not good enough. You gotta be precise, you gotta have data, you gotta be sure of what you are saying. The mexican flu and this are 2 good example of approximation and this should not stop the world spinning !!

FYI, April is the driest (no rain) month of the year in Belgium. No rain, no low pression, no wind. This is likely to continue ... Some decision needs to be taken now.

[EBBU]

tolipanebas wrote:
we're indeed being fooled here by a bunch of overly cautious nerdy scientists who scare the hell out of some civil servants as they enjoy their moment of glory, just like happened with that Mexican Flue joke of a couple of months ago, a pandemic disaster for which people were scared for months in a row, yet which went by hardly unnoticed in the end.[/b]


My opinion exactly.

Easily said by someone who does not have to take responsibility for the decision...

If only one aircraft runs into problems the same people will be yelling from the rooftops that it is the fault of the politicians and ANSPs (and their ATCOs) for allowing that particular aircraft to fly that particular route...

[tolipanebas]

What KLM do is irresponsible, since when are they a scientifical organisation?
They test a tiny bit of the european aerospace and with this very specific data
they put the governments under high pressure.

Ironically, these flights are the FIRST atmospheric flight test flights done over Continental Europe, since the closure of airspace.

As you say yourself, it's not up to the airlines to (try to) do this, governments should be doing so, yet so far they have completely failed! They rather prefer to stare at a computer screen showing them a mathematical model of the max possible spread of air masses originally containing the ash when they were over Iceland, WITHOUT bothering to check whether or not and just how much ash this air mass still holds (if any).

I'd say this is NOT a SCIENTIFIC basis to decide upon for such a long term and I'm not the only one...

KLM, LH and probably less verbose others are seeing the same, they got manipulated and they now want to see what is the real situation. In some way, it's risky because they don't have a clue, but at least this is a scientific approach ... the only one until now.

correct

The "better safe than sorry" argument in 2010 is not good enough. You gotta be precise, you gotta have data, you gotta be sure of what you are saying. The mexican flu and this are 2 good example of approximation and this should not stop the world spinning !!

A "better safe than sorry" approach is fine to start with, hence nobody was complaining when the airspace closed and the skies were cleared in expectation of that allegedly massive ash cloud passing over, but as time passed by and initial observations show that the concentration of ash in the area are extremely low to non existing even, more and more knowledgeable people are starting to question why no detailed flight tests are currently conducted on a regular basis to justify (or recall) the closure?

Some people have clearly overplayed their hands and the media are all over them, and so they are simply hoping mother nature will get them out of the mess they've gotten themselves (and us) in: unfortunately it seems the weather isn't going to help them out, so it may indeed require some serious flying in their face before they admit error...

Easily said by someone who does not have to take responsibility for the decision

Airlines like LH and KLM have taken far more responsibility already by sending some of their planes up, than any of our policy makers have done so far...

[EBBU]

Easily said by someone who does not have to take responsibility for the decision



Airlines like LH and KLM have taken far more responsibility already by sending some of their planes up, than any of our policy makers have done so far...

Do you really think that DLH and KLM sent up those planes without authorisation from the policy makers?

[tolipanebas]

Do you really think that DLH and KLM sent up those planes without authorisation from the policy makers?

Did I say so?

KLM's CEO joined the crew onboard the test flight yesterday, so he was taking an allegedly HUGE risk too then when he decided to fly out straight through the "ash cloud"???

Oh, and I just saw the Russian president flew to KRK to attend the state funeral of the Polish President and his wife, despite the total closure of the airspace in Poland. Is he nuts too then?

Or is it rather just a clear example of just how common sense the Russians have approached this situation, because despite having a fair portion of their air space officially market as affected, they keep it open and have so far not made any abnormal observations....

it's beginning to get more and more obvious that the biggest part of the 'danger zone' is perfectly clear and usable...

LH and KL are no small boys, these are some of the biggest and oldest airlines in the world even.
Working in the industry and knowing the intellectual level of all involved, I'd say I have far more confidence in the real world findings of these airlines' crews and their technical departments, than I have in some of the decisions from a bunch of civil servants or even worse, politicians who don't know what they talk about, yet seem to spend their lives in the television studios explaining their decisions and as such are being pushed by the media to extend their embargo for as long as the winds aloft don't change, as that is the only explanation for a policy shift, they can get away which without loosing face!

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... sures.html

[schouppe]

Everybody is talking about KLM and their pressure on almost all authorities. One question, why did they suspend all flights untill tomorrow even Dutch airspace is only closed untill 1400LT today? Because all tests went well? Please be realistic. They performed a test flight above FL410, way above the cloud. Everybody wants to start working again but safety is the number one goal in airline industry. No risks may be taken.

Enjoy another beautiful day everybody.

[Charlie Roy]

But what about the Finnish fighter jets whose engines were damaged by volcanic ash while in the air last Friday:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... canic.html

And Finland is further away from the volcano than Belgium.

And shouldn't they be doing test flights with smaller aircraft? What if one of KLM's 737's or LH's 747's crash lands into a populated area? Engine failure, windscreen rendered opaque, instrument damage. The aircraft could be crashing into an apartment block and the crew wouldn't even know it.

[fcw]

Oh, and I just saw the Russian president flew to KRK to attend the state funeral of the Polish President and his wife, despite the total closure of the airspace in Poland. Is he nuts too then?

Isn't that exactly what happened a week ago:
"Mr president we can't land, too thick fog. We already went 100 ft below our minima and still couldn't see the runway"
"But the previous plane landed !"
"Yes Mr President, but they went probably 200 ft below the minimums"
"Well if they can go safely below the minimus you can do that as well.!"...

[Propwash]

we're indeed being fooled here by a bunch of overly cautious nerdy scientists who scare the hell out of some civil servants as they enjoy their moment of glory, just like happened with that Mexican Flue joke of a couple of months ago, a pandemic disaster for which people were scared for months in a row, yet which went by hardly unnoticed in the end.

My opinion exactly.

You're not alone on this

We all have been fould by some overpaid 'fat neck' EU diaper weirdo's, who called themselves aviation experts.

When the engines are running again, we should stop paying €urocontrol(charges)

[tolipanebas]

Everybody is talking about KLM and their pressure on almost all authorities.

Not just KLM, LH has also made up its mind after a series of test flights and thinks this ban is just BS really. Just read their latest statements about it, after they flew no less than 10 wide bodies from MUC to FRA on a VFR flight plan, one of which went up to FL245, right into the center of the allegedly extremely dangerous ash cloud, but no ash at all was detected! Go figure!

Oh, and BA is about to send up a plane too after hearing about all this to see what is actually flying above our heads here, because guess what, so far NOT A SINGLE WEATHER BALLOON, LET ALONE ATMOSPHERIC TEST PLANE has been used by governments to check out the real conditions! Incredible, but true!

One question, why did they (KLM) suspend all flights untill tomorrow even Dutch airspace is only closed untill 1400LT today? Because all tests went well? Please be realistic.

They cancelled, because they can not keep everybody on standby forever.
It's operationally better to have a certain deadline which is somehow realistic, than to have ever shifting delays. This has basically nothing to do with their belief in there not being anything wrong above our heads!

They performed a test flight above FL410, way above the cloud.

And just how do you think that plane got up to FL410 in the first place?

Look, more and more airlines are taking the opportunity to reposition their stranded planes on VFR flight plans (KLM, Transavia, Air Berlin, Air France etc), and as they do, more of the same real world observation reports come in: no ash detection whatsoever over Europe, regardless what level (FL120, FL240, FL410), you name it! With the number of re-positioning and test flights going on right now, you'd expect at least one detect to have happened already, it's just basic statistics really, but nope....

BTW, Norway has just decided to open its entire airspace again, after observations revealed there is no ash present in their FIRs...

[Conti764]

It could be the end for a couple of airlines (BMI, WIZZ, AZ, BruAir, Monarch, BA...) who are already struggling to survive.

Aren't they insured for these kind of situations?

At one side they loose money due to unefficient staff expenditures (wages, hotel fees abroad,...) and probably operationally as well (standing fees at airports abroad, security, etc. etc.)

But on the other hand they are actually saving money (no fuel costs for a few days, no moneylosing flights operated and those flights will see a higher efficiency rate in the days after these events,...)

So, all in all, they are loosing money or at least not turning any profit these days, but I don't think the situation is so dramatic SN can suddenly get out of business...