Replacement of SN fleet

[diminbru]

SN co-ceo Bernard Gustin announced a few weeks ago that SN is going to take a decision concerning the renewal of their Avro RJ fleet in 2010. The Avro RJ's will leave the fleet between 2012-2014.

There have been a few messages in several topics so I decided to start a new topic about this item.

SN - Avro RJ 100 :
Lufthansa ordered 30 Bombardier's CS Series (with 30 options). As known, these A/C will bu used for Swiss and will replace the Avro RJ 100's.
If i'm not mistaken, LX has 20 Avro RJ 100 in fleet. Since the order was made for 30 A/C, I was wondering if LX will expand their network/frequencies or if the rest (10 orders, 30 options) will be used for other Lufthansa's daughter companies (SN/OS?).
As stated, the CS-series will replace Avro RJ 100. SN has 12 of these A/C.
Could this mean that SN will take the rest of the 10 orders?
The AVRO RJ100's of SN and LX have approximately the same age. SN's Avro RJ 100's are also 'younger' than their Avro RJ85's. As the CS series can only be delivered from 2012-2013, so this could be an option for SN (to replace the Avro RJ 100's).

SN - Avro RJ 85 :
There is also the question what would be the replacment A/c for SN's Avro RJ 85. Due to the tight time schedule (probably the first to be replaced), I only see two possibilites : Embrear's ERJ and Bombardier's CRJ.

Since recently, SN is wetleasing ERJ145's from BMI. Could this mean this is a test for SN to have a number of smaller A/C, meaning smaller than the current Avro RJ85?

Your comments, ideas, ... are welcome.

[RoMax]

You have to know that the intention of the order of 30 Cseries are mostly for LX and another part for the RJ's in the LH fleet (Cityline). And another thing, you say the Cseries can be delivered from 2012-2013. Actually the first delivery will take place in 2013 (to Swiss). The amount of deliveries in 2013 will not be that big, so SN should wait at least until (the end of)2013, but probably 2014. That's to late. 2013 can be possible if there are some of the 30 orders for SN. But this order is only for LX and LH only (maybe the options, later).

So I give the ERJ's the biggest chance, altough that is already older technology.

[regi]

Another lost customer of the B-717.
The excuse of lack of communality of this DC-9 development in the Boeing family doesn't matter here , if LH intends to go for Embraer or Bombardier for SN use.
The Avro's do also have no communality.
But I agree, it is a bit useless comment, because the production line is closed.

And no , don't start about Rekkof, please

[euroflyer]

I guess the first step for SN will be to check what size of aircraft they will need in the future. Just replacing all old aircraft with the same size again might not be the right decision. So the question what kind of routes SN will serve in the future short-haul in Europe and what demand can be expected on those routes. Than look at how many different types SN (respective the LH group) wants to operate.
In the range between 70 and 130 seats (so everything below the A319) there are a number of options: Bombardier CRJ700/900/1000, Embraer 170/175/190/195, Bombardier C110/C130 (all of those types are in one or the other configuration already used by the LH group) or maybe even the A318 or the Mitsubishi MRJ70/MRJ90 ?

The decision will however show the way forward for SN.

I could well imagine some more A319 (if higher pax numbers are expected on some routes) plus a mixture of Embraer 170/190.

[diminbru]

well I hope that SN will get some of the CS series that LH ordered. Or Embraer 170/190 is also a beautiful A/C.
MRJ is also very beautiful but I guess too late to replace the AVRO RJ fleet

[JOVAN]

I certainly prefer the EMBRAER's: a lot more comfortable than the crampy Bombardiers.

[BrightCedars]

I agree with euroflyer, the future mix in the fleet will probably be less heavy in RJ's. They have shown their limits and although I'm sure a dozen or two can find a place at SN, a dozen or two of A320 family aircraft would also be a good thing. The competition from low-cost operators is there to stay on many key routes and you just can't flight those with RJ's. Also, SN needs the legs and bellies of larger narrow-body types to be able to carry further and carry added value under as well.

I found the Embraer quite nice to fly with Finnair, but I'm not really experienced at all the current options in this area of the market. The sure thing is that SN needs something proven and something common within the LH group, that will keep cost and maintenance cheaper and easier.

[fretn]

the 2-2 seating of the embraer is a gift!

[regi]

I agree with euroflyer, the future mix in the fleet will probably be less heavy in RJ's. They have shown their limits and although I'm sure a dozen or two can find a place at SN, a dozen or two of A320 family aircraft would also be a good thing. The competition from low-cost operators is there to stay on many key routes and you just can't flight those with RJ's. Also, SN needs the legs and bellies of larger narrow-body types to be able to carry further and carry added value under as well.

I found the Embraer quite nice to fly with Finnair, but I'm not really experienced at all the current options in this area of the market. The sure thing is that SN needs something proven and something common within the LH group, that will keep cost and maintenance cheaper and easier.

Yes, it could be a moment of opportunity. Instead of following the trend, they could serve those regional markets with A-319 or B-737. ( to keep the communality ) That would mean more seats to sell to reach a break even point. But lowering the seat price would hurt the LCC's, especially Easyjet - and Ryanair as well.
It would be a huge task to fill those seats. But from commercial point of view, it is better to be bigger than smaller. Marketshare.

We will see.

[Buzz]

Yes, it could be a moment of opportunity. Instead of following the trend, they could serve those regional markets with A-319 or B-737. ( to keep the communality ) That would mean more seats to sell to reach a break even point. But lowering the seat price would hurt the LCC's, especially Easyjet - and Ryanair as well.
It would be a huge task to fill those seats. But from commercial point of view, it is better to be bigger than smaller. Marketshare.

We will see.

Sorry, but I just can't resist this one...

/Sarcasm on/
Wow, that's a great idea! Get rid of the 30 RJ's and get some A320's... How about 14? Or maybe 24? Hell, just make it a nice round number and say 34 A32X's. That way SN will be able to gain a lot of marketshare. Ryanair and Easyjet will go broke in no time...

Wait a minute, I seem to have a vague recollection that another Belgian airline tried that? Not sure what happened with that airline...
/sarcasm off/

- That would mean more seats to sell to reach a break even point.

Are you by any chance a former board member of SABENA? For some reason that argument seemed to make sense to them when SABENA purchased 34 A32X aircraft they didn't need. It didn't work for them and it sure as hell won't work for BruAir. Perhaps you forgotten that they tried already to be a LCC and by doing that ruined a perfectly good quality image (SN Brussels Airlines). They should grow, but slowly and in a controlled manner.

- but from commercial point of view, it is better to be bigger than smaller. Marketshare.

How are they supposed to fill A32X aircraft if they can't even fill the RJ's most of the time? From a commercial point of view, profit always comes before market share for the sake of market share. If you don't believe me, I highly recommend 'De crash van SABENA' or 'Het avontuur van SABENA' if you're dutch-speaking.

Sorry, nothing personal, just having a sarcastic day here
People and businesses should learn from their mistakes.

[Stij]

@ Buzz,

pretty well written down. Especially those parts about "profit over market share" and "SN Brussels image".

Cheers,

Stij

[diminbru]

well if CS series and MRJ's are out of reach, I hope that SN will get the Embraer's E-jets instead of Bombardier CRJ's.
Probably a combination of E170/E-175 and E-190 could be possbile. The E-170 could be used for routes with lower pax flow...
Avg passengers for :
E-170 = 70
E-175 = 78
E-190 = 94

actual SN Avro RJ cabin configuration:
RJ85 = 82
RJ100 = 97

[b720]

ikndeed, they simply need safe planes that they can fill, with a profit.

[BrightCedars]

I'm totally for the RJ's and never said they should go all A32x. I would be more concerned that they actually offer a good level of comfort on what would still provide more than half of their European flights. The ARJ is really a comfortable neat little aircraft. Something similar in comfort would be acceptable to most.

I just don't want SN to start popping 50-70 seaters at remote stands because that is not my idea of travelling with a first tier airline.

[b720]

abslotuely.. The RJs are quite ok.. I have a problem with their 737s...

[jan_olieslagers]

Just to confirm air travel is not my cup of tea: why is nobody mentioning turboprops? Both Dash-8 and ATR42-72 are used on many short routes in Europe. Perhaps they are considered insufficiently comfortable for the quality airline that Brussels Airlines tries to be? Or is there a remnant of the old Sabena "prestige" mentality? Yet Sabena DID operate turboprops - but that was in another age.

[b720]

because, as bright cedars just mentioned, I don ' think many people will be excited in being bussed to and fro the aircraft.. nothing more horrible than waiting in a bus till all have boarded before the bus starts moving..tyhen linning up the tarmac.. same upon arrival..

[RoMax]

Just to confirm air travel is not my cup of tea: why is nobody mentioning turboprops? Both Dash-8 and ATR42-72 are used on many short routes in Europe. Perhaps they are considered insufficiently comfortable for the quality airline that Brussels Airlines tries to be? Or is there a remnant of the old Sabena "prestige" mentality? Yet Sabena DID operate turboprops - but that was in another age.

Turboprops for very short routes, OK. But for longer routes (and SN operates their RJ all over Europe) no thanks. They are not comfortable and fast enough for routes to Italy or Spain for exemple. So they can buy both but what would be the adventage of an amount of Q400's or ATR's with 50-70 seats and an amount of ERJ-190/170's with 94-72 seats? The ERJ-170/175 is better for SN's network than the turboprops with almost the same capacity, more comfort, faster and a bigger range. So that has nothing to do with "prestige" mentality.

btw: SN said they will buy Regional JETS, so no turboprops.

[Buzz]

Just to confirm air travel is not my cup of tea: why is nobody mentioning turboprops? Both Dash-8 and ATR42-72 are used on many short routes in Europe. Perhaps they are considered insufficiently comfortable for the quality airline that Brussels Airlines tries to be? Or is there a remnant of the old Sabena "prestige" mentality? Yet Sabena DID operate turboprops - but that was in another age.

I think they are at the lower end of the capacity needs (74 pax in a Q400 I believe?).
I would assume they want 1 type to replace the whole fleet of RJ's. Embrears can do that (EMB170 - EMB195).
If they buy Q400's, they would still need a +/- 100 pax jet to go between the Q400 and the A319 and replace the RJ100.

IMHO they will try to go for one family to replace the whole RJ fleet (like the Embraer family).
If they choose 2 types, then the Q400 might be a bit to big to be the smallest aircraft. If they go with 2 types, I would guess ATR 42-size and EMB190 / CS100-size, but only SN management knows this for sure.

We'll hear when LH makes a decision...

[Bralo20]

The most pleasant aircraft for the customers is the ERJ17x/19x from Embraer. Those are marvelous birds with a nice spacious feeling inside the aircraft. Even the CS series from Bombardier should have the same feeling. However, the EMB types from Embraer and the CRJ types from Bombardier could stay were they been build, right in Brazil and in Canada. Those birds have lack of space and you'll have the feeling that you're riding in a sardin can instead of an airplane. If you're not claustrofobic, you can definately be in one of those I would prefer the Avro's any day above the EMB or the CRJ birds...