What happens to the JNB service when the only JNB capable aircraft goes u/s ?
It is ( in my opinion) something of a risk to open a service that could only be operated by a single aircraft from the fleet .
I thought of that, and I figured that actually JNB would be an advantage compared to other potential destinations if the 5th aircraft flying it goes U/S.
For JNB it's so easy to reschedule the passengers to fly with Lufthansa, Swiss and Star partners like TAP, Egyptair. The frequencies are high, the alternatives numerous. It will be a matter of choice.
Now my question: what are you going to do if one of the A330's flying any of the smaller airports like Ouagadougou goes U/S? LH doesn't fly there nor does any Star Alliance partner and SN doesn't have a full time spare aircraft seen that their A330 fleet is rather small. Especially if it's a long-lasting problem, it could mean big trouble as they will have to reshuffle the entire A330 schedule.
A disadvantage is that you can't fly daily anyway because BRU-JNB-BRU takes more than 24 hours with rotations. Basically, you would have to rotate with other cities to turn that disadvantage into an advantage.
Actually we haven't said much about the market itself.
JNB is one of the highest-yielding markets out there and still has alot of room for new carriers.
It's low risk, with finances getting tight and LH's 2011 bid, it could be the wisest choice for a 5th A330. A misstep at this point could be very expensive. Hell, if they can't find an A333 as there are not many more than zero on the market, the A332's, of which a few are available, would be even better operationally.
attracting "cheap" passengers will not make SN succesful!
No, but anyone would prefer to pay less, no matter what budget they are on.
Low-budget passengers are saving hard to pay for AF, SN seats these days and filling many of their seats. Who will stop them from choosing another cheaper carrier like Afriqiyah tomorrow?
Europe-Asia used to be a high yield market in the early 1990's, today it has become a low-yield battlefield where only established airlines can afford to make money by asking for reasonable yields. SQ went from nothing to become a reference by offering a good product at the right price. Carriers like Aeroflot or Air Asia X who have yet to establish are forced to compete with low fares and adequate products/services.
(As a matter of fact, I got a return ticket with SU BRU-NRT-BRU for 470EUR on the brand new A330...)
Euroflyer, in the same way, LH didn't need PTV's on longhaul because they are an established carrier with an established network and customer basis. They fly to 179 destinations worldwide. They highly rely on corporate travel in the first place, and on the travellers-genes of the Germans in the second place. They sell low-yield to agencies as well. But now that most airlines flying longhaul have AVOD, LH has to adapt and they are installing them on their fleet too. SN has only a dozen of African destinations, hardly an established network with a "major carrier" position, it is therefore at disadvantage to airlines like Afriqiyah who are aiming at becoming the major carrier in Africa with a not so inferior product. Today, we don't see a difference nor an imminent threat, but if Afriqiyah announces a big A320 order soon and I suspect that they will, the outlooks for SN near/mid-term would become bleak.
SN need to become the reference for Africa before any other smaller challengers are allowed to achieve that status.
Don't get me wrong, an A319 operation can not be meant to be permanent, or unless it proves to work too good to switch back to bigger capacities on some of the thinner routes.
If SN can raise some healthy cash (with 15 A319's flying red-eyes instead of 4xA319's & 11 B737's sleeping at night, 100 million euro profit per year is possible) by expanding quickly with A319 capacity, they will not be laughed at when in a few years they go to ILFC and ask for 20 A350XWB's and/or B787's.
LH bought half of SN and have the option to buy the rest in 2011, but we must assume the worst...
Actually if SN has a good strategy, new investors could join and even make actual shareholders turn 180 degrees. It would also make SN more attractive to LH because when you think about it, if LH really wanted SN that bad, they would have paid the full price right from the start. Some routes freedom rights need be negotiated politically, but one could question LH's real motives behind that move... LH did the same with BD and there even was a confrontation a few months ago between LH and BD shareholders.
LONDON, May 20 (Reuters) - BMI's controlling shareholder BBW Partnership Ltd said on Wednesday it has initiated action against Lufthansa (LHAG.DE) in the UK's High Court, requesting that the German airline be forced to complete the acquisition of British Midland.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLK29676920090520
LH is a short-term relief for SN thanks to the cash injection covering for losses and Star membership.
Climbing up Maslow's pyramid, SN now need a mid-long term strategy and there could be nothing else than establishing a strong position in the sunny continent. A passive growth is not an option.
The colour of those AirDC tails are the spirit SN needs to show for Africa: "this is our territory and we're wild."
Simulation:
BRU 16:00 - AAA 22:30
AAA 23:30 - BRU 06:00
Daily inspection / operational margin
BRU 07:00 - GVA 08:00
GVA 08:30 - BRU 09:30
BRU 10:00 - FCO 12:00
FCO 12:30 - BRU 14:30
Check / light defects / operational margin
BRU 16:00 - to Africa
LOS/OUA/ACC/ABV/KAN/LFW/NIM/AJY/NDJ/ABJ/CKY/BKO/FNA/COO/KRT/PHC/NKC can work on this schedule. You can add 2 x daily to DKR and shift a A333 to JIB or some other place.
Add 30 minutes for the African flight, shorten the 2nd shorthaul flight and you can add:
ROB/BGF/NSI/DLA/SSG/LBV
Eventually shift the A333 doing DLA-FIH to non-stop or triangle with FBM.
All within operational range of post-2000 A319 with sufficient margin, some with spare room for cargo.
In no time, SN will have an important network and can start thinking of feeding from Asia and North America.
I cannot see where from - realistically - money for a drastic expansion should come. Maybe step by step from LH, but not now and not all at once (my guess). In the current economic climate you will not find anybody who will be willing to invest massively into a rather insecure investment like a drastic expansion into Africa or somewhere else, even more if it includes leasing or buying new planes first. There are a number of airlines around which already have the planes (as they had to cut back operations to many destinations) and are looking desperately for new lucrative destinations they could use them too. It will be hard enough to compete with them anyway ...
