Ryanair expects growth to stop in 2012

[teddybAIR]

According to De Tijd Ryanair's executive Michael O'Leary expects the growth of his company to come to a halt in 2012. He expects Ryanair to carry 90 million passengers by then. In the same article, he states that his deal with boeing that is currently under negotiation is not critical to the further development of Ryanair.

It seems to me that he is merely trying to improve his bargaining power in the deal with Boeing. A deal for 200 737's is massive and everybody knows that got their current fleet at rock-bottom prices because they played out Airbus and Boeing during the previous crisis. However, Airbus executive John Leahy has already stated that Ryanair has to come to understand that aircraft are a superior product and that they come at a superior price. It seems like they lost one of their bargaining chips.

Best regards,
bAIR

[NCB]

Ryanair is threatening Boeing to close any relationship with Boeing and drop and defer existing orders and options if Boeing doesn't offer them a good deal for their new narrowbody order by the end of the year.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/20 ... rders.html
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=332325

I expect that Boeing will not buy into this and would prefer to let them drop the order.

Ryanair's strategy includes reselling their aircraft before the D-checks.
If they don't maintain this strategy, their MX costs will rise and Boeing is the one that is going to be happy.

Airbus said no, so Boeing can pretend alot, and probably going to wait without dropping their prices.
Therefore, I believe that FR might be looking at announcing a huge Cseries order unless Boeing gives them a very sweet deal...

I don't think that FR will stop its growth until all markets have been explored, and there are still many many they can veni vidi vici.

[smokejumper]

I don't understand the logic of O'Leary's actions. Sure, he wants a cheaper price, but making his announcement in a public form virtually guarantees that Boeing can not lower the price of planes. If they now give him a better price, they'll be forced to lower the prices of all planes on the order book as well as any future orders.

It seems to me that O'Leary would have been better off privately meeting with Bowing and lay out is arguments. Some sort of accommodation might have been reached that would not be industry-wide.

[shingles]

Ryanair's business model cannot sustain stopped growth in my view. Forward momentum is the only thing that keeps the show on the road - a bit like riding a bicycle. For MO'L to admit that the growth isn't going to go on forever isn't hugely reassuring. There's a limit to what he can screw out of local government.

[teddybAIR]

I've never estimated Ryanair's business model as a sustainable model in the long term. Their success is based on their huge bargaining power, but we see the first signs that that bargaining power is reducing because their stakeholders are not willing to invest massively in win-loose situations anymore. Airbus simply refuses doing business with Ryanair and a few airports have already turned down Ryanair because they simply ask to much unilatteraly...