The future of Brussels Airlines with Lufthansa

[Conti764]

It makes it even more eminent for SN to open more direct routes to Africa, if possible on a daily base. They'll need extra capacity to do so, so I hope some aircraft come available soon.

SN can wish to open more routes to Africa but there need be first billateral agreements to do so.

Agreed, but I doubt excisting bilaterals limit SN to offer only two or three weekly flights to most destinations? First of all, SN should strengthen their current operation with more direct flights to the excisting destinations.

In that way, within the Airbus catalogue, the A330-200's are best suited for such operations. This way they can keep the 333's for triangular flights where the market is simply too small to operate.

[Conti764]

If, indeed, the US goverment is asking for a direct flight between Nato HQs and their main non US base, SN should consider flying to Doha (and maybe on to another destination in the Gulf area) and I think, as I already said, consider a second (evening) flight to EWR in co-operation with CO. This would give Star Alliance a definite advantage to NYC over DL (Skyteam) and AA (oneworld). Now that YUL is going to be flown by AC, for me, in addition to expanding in AFI, SN should consider DOH and a second EWR flight as a first step outside Africa.

I fully agree on Doha, this in an opportunity SN should not let fall into foreign hands. But I doubt any other Gulf destination would be good for SN. And let the second EWR rotation in the hands of CO.

[Conti764]

And you think that leasing 2-5 A330's is cheap? I never say they need to buy them but leasing a lot of long-haul planes in one time is still a big investement for an airliner like SN.

It's not cheap, not at all, but easier then buying new planes. A company like SN can't afford to buy relatively young long haul equipment, but they could lease 8 to 10 year old planes. I don't know about the financials of SN, but if they really want to ad a value to Star Alliance and give a reason to the alliance to feed pax into SN's Africa system, they need to expand anyways. It's the time to take small risks. When the economy goes up again, the aircraft currently availabe will be leased or bought in no time.

[Conti764]

And indeed you are correct about leasing A330's, but I think that SN will get 2-3 extra long-haul planes to the end of 2010 maybe earlyer. But I'm not sure if they gone start routes like Boston, and Doha before the end of 2010 I hope so but I am not to optimistic about that.

Well, Doha is a destination that could become a real moneymaker for SN. With a big lasting contract with the US government and maybe some companies it could be really worth to operate the route. It's like Continental and BRU. CO fills a large part of their planes with corporate contracts and that's why BRU is a top money making route for CO, whereas DL and AA are struggling to keep the route profitable.

[RoMax]

Yes you are correct but I think they want to expand AFI first and than think about Asia and America. LH can transfer some AFI routes to SN becaus in Belgium AFI routes perform better but Asia is a good market for LH. So I think LH want SN in Africa not in Asia becaus thats their market, Qatar Airways is a possible future member of *A so that could be a good partner. SN now that they need the US and Asia to their *A partners the first years, they need al their money for AFI this and next year than we can think about Doha and Boston and things like that. Normally SN get 1-3 extra long-haul planes by the end of next year, they gonne use them to fly new AFI destinations and fly more direct to AFI. They can fly to the whole world with 6 or so long haul planes.

[LJ]

Well, Doha is a destination that could become a real moneymaker for SN. With a big lasting contract with the US government and maybe some companies it could be really worth to operate the route. It's like Continental and BRU. CO fills a large part of their planes with corporate contracts and that's why BRU is a top money making route for CO, whereas DL and AA are struggling to keep the route profitable.

Why do people think SN can run a BRU-DOH profitably? If such a route would be operated it would be QR as Star Alliance is not going to waste a SN A330 on such a minor route . However the question is whether there is any traffic between BRU and DOH. Yes DOH is an US headquarter, but how much traffic does this generate?? The military VIPS use private planes and. Furthermoe, outside NATO I don´t see any BRU-DOH O&D traffic. Given the fact that Star has already a daily DOH flight ex FRA (and thrice daily if you count the LH codeshare flights on QR) SN isn´t the logically airline to operate DOH-BRU. QR is the logical airline to operate such a route as they also have their hub at DOH and thus benefit from their connections (Asia and Middle East). Moreover as QR itself needs new destinations to send their new airplanes to.

Futrthermore although corporate contracts are a good thing, they do diminish yields as the fares negotiated are usually much.

And you think that leasing 2-5 A330's is cheap? I never say they need to buy them but leasing a lot of long-haul planes in one time is still a big investement for an airliner like SN.

Leasing is the only viable option as the production line for the A330 is still full for the coming years. However I reckon that leasing an A330 is also not cheap these days (if they are available).

[Conti764]

Why do people think SN can run a BRU-DOH profitably? If such a route would be operated it would be QR as Star Alliance is not going to waste a SN A330 on such a minor route . However the question is whether there is any traffic between BRU and DOH. Yes DOH is an US headquarter, but how much traffic does this generate?? The military VIPS use private planes and. Furthermoe, outside NATO I don´t see any BRU-DOH O&D traffic. Given the fact that Star has already a daily DOH flight ex FRA (and thrice daily if you count the LH codeshare flights on QR) SN isn´t the logically airline to operate DOH-BRU. QR is the logical airline to operate such a route as they also have their hub at DOH and thus benefit from their connections (Asia and Middle East). Moreover as QR itself needs new destinations to send their new airplanes to.

If the market is really low for such route why would QR itself start the route? Accept for the US government, they have no reason to do so. No codeshare from SN (since they codeshare with EY) and will QR want to face EY's competition? EY is flying to BRU for the fifth consecutive year, having build a customer base. If QR would want to step in the market it would really be at rock bottom rates. Unless QR joins Star Alliance, I so no reason for them to start BRU, especially when they already have two daily flights to FRA.

Leasing is the only viable option as the production line for the A330 is still full for the coming years. However I reckon that leasing an A330 is also not cheap these days (if they are available).

However, leasing rates are probably lower due to the bad economy. Once the economy starts to get up again, these birds will really be too expensive for SN to lease.

[LJ]

If the market is really low for such route why would QR itself start the route? Accept for the US government, they have no reason to do so. No codeshare from SN (since they codeshare with EY) and will QR want to face EY's competition? EY is flying to BRU for the fifth consecutive year, having build a customer base. If QR would want to step in the market it would really be at rock bottom rates. Unless QR joins Star Alliance, I so no reason for them to start BRU, especially when they already have two daily flights to FRA.

Unlike SN QR can offer connections ex DOH to Middle East, Asia, Australia and the Indian subcontinent. If QR wants to enter the market they can. The low end of the market is very price sensitive thus a fare war with EY may do the trick. The rest of the market may choose between Miles § More when flying QR or no miles on EY.... I do think that the current EY customer may swith to QR should QR start BRU when the regular SN pax get their Miles § More cards....

Thus basically the reason why I think QR will win any battle with EY is: a) QR´s current relationship with LH (both codeshare and M&M) and b) their ability to offer a good product against a very low price.

However, leasing rates are probably lower due to the bad economy. Once the economy starts to get up again, these birds will really be too expensive for SN to lease.

Given the delays of the B787 and the need some airlines have to have an intermediate solution I doubt that there are many A330s available (in good condition).

[RoMax]

Doha is a route that is perfect for QR, but not for SN. And even for QR everything depends on a big contract with the US/NATO. Look at CO, wy are they performing so well on Newark, because they have contracts with the goverment of the US and AA and DL doesn't on the JFK route. The NATO can generate more pax than some people think here. And when they can fill not a whole airplane than, they can use a A319LR like they do on the GVA route. Doha is a better route than some people think, look at some cities, country's that QR is serving in Europe, wy would a route to BRU didn't work than? But like more people already said for QR not for SN.

And I now that leasing is the only possible way (or LH has to many planes when they get A380's) but that is still expensive for a airliner like SN. And that is wy they don't need to lease to many planes in one time. And when I read some things here, people think that from the moment the crisis is over SN is going to fly to the US and Asia. One example, Boston, if they want to fly on a profitable way they need to fly daily or minimum every weekday. So they need one plane for only operating one route, count one day weekly maintenance than they can perform one day a week another route. Sorry but SN doesn't has the money to fly on this way. They need to focus on AFI (A332 non-stop routes, A333 triangel routes, A343 routes like Kinshasa or Dakar). So people be serious, SN is not flying to the US and Asia the first 2-3 years. When they are full of LH and they get easely new long-haul planes, than we can hope for America and Asia.

[BrightCedars]

I think DOH makes sense but for QR, not for SN. It could be operated together with SN of course.
In the long run and seeing what alliances the Gulf airlines hook up with (or come up with in the case of EK), SN will align with the Gulf airline that is a member or Star Alliance, and that seems to be pointing at QR.

If EY can run a 6-weekly dedicated AUH-BRU A330 or bigger service, that is clearly not based on O&D, then there is market for QR to take with their similar offering in terms of network and service.

As for SN, they need to focus on Africa, and they need more planes. If we know it, then they knew it before us, and soon or late the good news will come!

[RoMax]

Indeed you are absolutly correct, finally somone who nows that SN need to focus on AFI and only on AFI for the first years with their own planes. And now with the economy wich is bussy to recover, I think we don't need to wait until begin 2010, when they want to start new AFI services in summer 2010 than we hear sommething about it before the end of this year I think.

[Conti764]

Boston

I doubt it's going to happen soon, but with a good equipment planning SN can rotate their planes troughout the network, and thus maximize the use of the aircraft. SN can't afford to dedicate one plane to one route, so they need to be creative and shift their planes around untill they reach a block for maintenance. Many companies work this way.

[RoMax]

Yes but that is still not for the first 2-3 years. For each US route you need olmost one whole airplane for this one route. And for a profitable route they need to fly very much (daily of each weekday) so their isn't a lot space left for other operations. And one aircraft for one route is not a good idea for SN. Something that is possible for over a few years is: every weekday with a A332 to Boston, saterday this plane to Tel Aviv and sunday a weekly maintenance day, that is needed for a plane that is flying daily long routes.

[cnc]

everyone is talking about new longhaul operations and widebody a/c's but what about SN's narrowbody fleet/european routes? airlines without a strong domestic or in SN's case european network can't afford to only look at longhaul routes (isn't that why pan am is gone?).

[RoMax]

AFI is SN his money maker, the European network is loss making. When SN expand his AFI network it will atract also more EU pax. And they are expanding their European network, from october they are flying an extra daily flight to Copenhagen(5 daily flights on weekdays), 2 extra flights a week to Vilnius (6 weekly flights with A319), and a new route to Milan Linate (2 daily on weekdays, 1daily in the weekend). But they don't need direct new aircraft for EU flights because they downgrade a lot of flights in the begin of the past winter season. And after that LH can easely transfer some A32S's of 737's. That isn't the problem. Long haul is a bigger thing, that's wy everyone is talking about that.

[tolipanebas]

Indeed, SN's European network has been operating with really low load factors (barely 60% on average) due to the relatively small O&D market on many secondary routes (TRN, BRS, NCL...), the extensive competition from foreign carriers on key routes (BCN, MAD, FCO, MXP), SN's unalligned strategy (no feed from partners on many of their routes) and its very small long haul network (only feed in the morning), so there is still ample room for growth within the current capacity offered. Let them first concentrate on increasing the load factors on the current flights (through an increased feed, both from the STAR partners and the extra long haul flights which they will hopefully add next year), and only then you can start thinking about expanding on Europe.

The only adjustments needed to the European network right now are adding a few extra connections IMHO.
In view of an expected expansion on AFI and the daily Montreal service from AC (which will be codeshared by SN), I'd say they urgently need:

-) A morning inbound flight from NCE (since right now NCE is disconnected from the long haul network all together!)

-) A second daily CDG flight (to cut waiting times and increase the offered capacity).

-) A twice daily flight to the west of France (BOD and/or NTE), although here they do painfully miss a 50-seater, which would be a perfect plane to operate such thin new routes.

Also, does anyone have news on an early morning flight from HEL maybe?
It was said SN were considering adding a 3th daily flight, once they'd stop codesharing with AY, but I haven't seen anything about it yet. Or are they just going to pull back from offering connections to the south of Europe through BRU (in view of the team up with LH, thus leaving the Germans these pax) and operate HEL once daily? Anybody cares to check to check the schedule for next winter?

[Conti764]

Yes but that is still not for the first 2-3 years. For each US route you need olmost one whole airplane for this one route. And for a profitable route they need to fly very much (daily of each weekday) so their isn't a lot space left for other operations. And one aircraft for one route is not a good idea for SN. Something that is possible for over a few years is: every weekday with a A332 to Boston, saterday this plane to Tel Aviv and sunday a weekly maintenance day, that is needed for a plane that is flying daily long routes.

Boston takes about 16-17 hrs for one rotation, this leaves some room for a second, shorter haul route to e.g. Moscow. If this route overlaps the next day departure to BOS, they could deploy another plane and use the BOS and DME plane to fly another route and like this, all planes can rotate throughout the routes of SN.

And a plane which flies daily long haul flights needs less maintenance then a plane which flies multiple hops a day. For SN to maximise the profit of their planes they should only be on the ground for about 1,5 to 2 hrs, both in BRU and abroad. In that scenario they do need more maintenance, but the planning can be made on such ways that each plane will go through maintance every once and a while.

[LJ]

Boston takes about 16-17 hrs for one rotation, this leaves some room for a second, shorter haul route to e.g. Moscow. If this route overlaps the next day departure to BOS, they could deploy another plane and use the BOS and DME plane to fly another route and like this, all planes can rotate throughout the routes of SN.

Sorry but Mr Boeing is correct. A rotation to BOS does cost 1 A330. Why? Because SN needs connecting traffic to make BOS profitable. If you take a 11:00 AM departure ex BRU, the airplane can´t return to BRU before 04:00 AM. Not very convenient for connections. This means pushing back the return flight so that you have a 06:00 arrival in BRU. Furthermore you can´t do anything with the A330 as leaving at 06:00 AM is not a very convenient departure time (and the aircraft has to back in time for the flight to BOS) Swapping with an aircraft from AFI will be difficult.

Furthermore, LH bought SN for its niche in Africa, not for flights to/from North America. These flights could be better done by other Star members (as already demonstrated by AC). Furthermore I expect that all destinations now served by SN and another Star member will see some rationalisation. This means less flights (in total) and the partner with excess capacity or best cost basis will operate the route (or most flights). Depending on the route this wil be SN or another Star partner. In essence an alliance is about making use of each others capacity, whether it is SN or TP or SK. It will therefore be interesting to see what Star Allince (LH) will do on the BRU-Europe flights.

[Conti764]

Sorry but Mr Boeing is correct. A rotation to BOS does cost 1 A330. Why? Because SN needs connecting traffic to make BOS profitable. If you take a 11:00 AM departure ex BRU, the airplane can´t return to BRU before 04:00 AM. Not very convenient for connections. This means pushing back the return flight so that you have a 06:00 arrival in BRU. Furthermore you can´t do anything with the A330 as leaving at 06:00 AM is not a very convenient departure time (and the aircraft has to back in time for the flight to BOS) Swapping with an aircraft from AFI will be difficult.

Not if it is an evening flight ex-BRU. With a 18u departure in BRU, in theory the plane is back in BRU between 09u30 - 10u30 (very convenient for connections to Africa) and enough time to perform a medium haul rotation. Or shift the plane to an African network and use another plane, which arrives at BRU around 16u30 for the outgoing flight. At this moment it is not practical since all African flights arrive very early in the morning and an evening flight to N.-America has a connecting time of 10 to 12 hours at BRU. But if SN is going to offer more connections to (maybe more destinations in) Africa, they'll need to spread out the timetable over the entire day since BRU can't handle much more international capacity in the morning, nor at the B-pier, nor a the T-gates witch runs at full capacity with 4 widebodies. In that scenario, evening flights westbound from BRU do become an option.
But I was merely pointing out that you do not need to sacrifice one plane for one long haul route and that you can maximize the use of you equipment with a good planning and shifting planes around throughout the entire network. Of course, this is unnecessary for SN with it's fleet of 4 long haul planes, but they will expand eventually.

Furthermore, LH bought SN for its niche in Africa, not for flights to/from North America. These flights could be better done by other Star members (as already demonstrated by AC). Furthermore I expect that all destinations now served by SN and another Star member will see some rationalisation. This means less flights (in total) and the partner with excess capacity or best cost basis will operate the route (or most flights). Depending on the route this wil be SN or another Star partner. In essence an alliance is about making use of each others capacity, whether it is SN or TP or SK. It will therefore be interesting to see what Star Allince (LH) will do on the BRU-Europe flights.

I know why LH bought SN and I know what the purpose of an alliance is. But like I said, I was only pointing out that you don't need one aircraft to operate one long haul flight. Furthermore, there are some markets SN can operate themselve, outside Africa, since there is no alliance parnter flying that route. BOS is one of them.

[jan_olieslagers]

To all of you armchair-managers: even an armchair-manager should have some basic control of the language she/he is using. Management bases on communication and communication bases on language, even in this 21st century. So all of you get back to college and learn your basics. Some lessons on economy might be worth taking along.

Lacking these basic skills, y'all are just masturbating in public. Which you are of course free to do, but please find another place for it.