The future of Brussels Airlines with Lufthansa

[NCB]

ANA will only fly to BRU from Japanese airports which warant a flight since I don't think there is very much connecting traffic between BRU and the Japanese market. I have always been told that NRT was a good market for SN, so this could be an option. But ANA will have to rely on the O&D market and even then, most pax flying to BRU will probably be Japanese tourists, so the yields won't be top of the market I guess.

BRU-NRT/HND is full of connecting traffic.
BRU passengers can connect to all major cities in Japan through HND and vice-versa.
Also, Tokyo area, a 20 million catchement area will have access to SN's European feeding.

NH is more a matter of when, not if.
I expect NH to choose for HND service, but with B763ER rather than 787, initially, followed later on by B777 service if they succeed to growing the route.
Even the initial batch of 787's should have the range to handle BRU.
The Belgian tourism organisms shall also try to convince Japanese to come back to Belgium, I remember flying in the '90's to Tokyo on fully packed B743 and A343. The Japanese tourists and tour-operators are high-yield, unlike other tourists.

[itami]

Japan probably needs to be reconnected to BRU but it is a difficult route because you cannot rely on a hub and spoke model, connections are very marginal. Best would be a 787 service by NH together with SN, geared toward point-to-point travel and broken even thanks to some connecting and some tourist traffic.

Correct, but don't forget that NH already operates daily flights from NRT to FRA, CDG and LHR and is codesharing on several other European destinations.

[RoMax]

Yes they fly to a lot CDG, FRA and LHR and codeshare on several other EU routes, but a lot of other airports have already connections with Japan (the homecarrier of that airport or Japan Airlines)even airports that are smaller than BRU. If the homecarrier operates already this route to a airport like BRU or even smaller or a bit bigger it is not a good idea for ANA to fly also to that airport. CDG, FRA and LHR are the three biggest airports in Europe so that is a good route for ANA even with a lot of other airliners operating this route's. Now BRU has absolutly no flight to Tokyo or even hole Japan, only with connections from other airports in Asia that are served bij Hainan for exemple. ANA did already a market research in the past in Brussels and they conclude that BRU is a possible new destination if they can work together with SN. But I think they are waiting until the crisis is over because the flights to the far east are performing still very bad.

[itami]

But I think they are waiting until the crisis is over because the flights to the far east are performing still very bad.

Might be a reason although SN becoming full member of *A will be a more significant step.

[RoMax]

When SN joins *A at the end of this year, it is a very good reason to start a route from Tokyo-Narita to BRU for ANA. But I think they gonne wait to start a route until summer 2010 or winter 2010/2011. The best plane to fly this route would be the 787 for a daily service or a 777 for a 3/4 weekly service, but I hope to see a 787.

[BrightCedars]

JL already serving AMS and having two Japanese carriers there being overcrowded, BRU is indeed an good port to cover the Benelux region. This will especially be the case when it's as easy to go from BRU to Amsterdam CS by train than it is to go from AMS to Brussels-Midi. JL would cover the Benelux (or low-countries to exclude Luxembourg) via AMS + train for BRU and NH via BRU + train for AMS.

I don't see it start as a daily straight away though. 3-4 weekly seems to be enough for a start, gradually getting to the business friendly daily frequency over time.

Well, it's seems we've got China, India and Japan (tentatively) covered, now what about South East Asia SN?

[RoMax]

ANA can cover Africa via BRU by SN, that would be a whole new world for ANA. In Paris there are more connections to AFI but not with a partner, SN can be this partner in BRU. And a daily service to begin is indeed a bit to much, but I doesn't mean that they must do that but after a while flying a daily service with 787 would be a good choice.
But I don't think SN would fly to South East Asia the first 3/5 years, LH and SN now that BRU is a perfect airport for flying to AFI and that is where they gone focus on. They led Asia and America for their *A partners, they are much stronger to operate this routes and even SN don't fly this route with own metal it is good for them to feed their EU and AFI network.
The airliners/routes that I want to see of *A in BRU are: Thai (Bankok), SQ(Singapore), Air China (Shangai), ANA(Tokyo), Asiana(Seoul), United (daily Chicago and Washington both non-stop), CO (second daily Newark flight and Houston), TAM (Sao Poulo)and Air Canada (bigger plane on some days to Montreal). Some of this routes/airliners may never come or mayby over 5 to 10 years, but it would be wonderful isn't it?

[itami]

I don't see it start as a daily straight away though. 3-4 weekly seems to be enough for a start, gradually getting to the business friendly daily frequency over time.

On the other hand the 'Japanese market' is much more than just NRT and HND. Especially OSA (even Sabena used to have an office in town) in the industrial and historical heart of Japan should not be neglected when it comes to market potential.

[Schep]

and don't forget Nagoya... Head office of Toyota !

AMS = low yield passengers to Japan (most of them are tourists). I don't understand why JL is flying to AMS. AMS is a skyteam hub...

BRU =high yied passengers to Japan. There are a lot of Japanese companies in Belgium.

I am sure this flight can be a success...

[BrightCedars]

On the other hand the 'Japanese market' is much more than just NRT and HND. Especially OSA (even Sabena used to have an office in town) in the industrial and historical heart of Japan should not be neglected when it comes to market potential.

Did I say mention TYO anywhere in my post? You are of course right and it may make sense to operate out of a different airport than TYO. About OSA (KIX in particular) I think I read once that the yields are generally lower than TYO.

[Conti764]

The airliners/routes that I want to see of *A in BRU are: Thai (Bankok), SQ(Singapore), Air China (Shangai), ANA(Tokyo), Asiana(Seoul), United (daily Chicago and Washington both non-stop), CO (second daily Newark flight and Houston), TAM (Sao Poulo)and Air Canada (bigger plane on some days to Montreal). Some of this routes/airliners may never come or mayby over 5 to 10 years, but it would be wonderful isn't it?

I think everybody would love to see these airlines coming to BRU It makes it even more eminent for SN to open more direct routes to Africa, if possible on a daily base. They'll need extra capacity to do so, so I hope some aircraft come available soon. The 3 343's of AC are not available anymore since they all found a new owner with Gestair and Swiss.

And again, I say SN must keep an eye for Doha. QR is already asked by the US govn't to open up DOH-BRU to have a link between the NATO HQ and the biggest non-domestic US base. It could be a real moneymaker for SN with the 'support' of the US govn't. I always said and still believe SN's focus should be on Africa, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't be aware for opportunities outside this market. Now the codesharing with LY ends, it might be an option to fly the 330 to TLV on certain days (saterday f.e. since LY cannot fly on saturdays).

After edit: I searched the net a little, and there are three other 343's available, all ex-Air Comet but quite old (all build in 1993). On the other hand there are also 5 (relatively) young 332's available. They would be ideal to launch direct flights, and keep the 333's for triangular flights.

[NCB]

and don't forget Nagoya... Head office of Toyota !

Many Japanese multinationals have large establishments in Belgium.
Toyota, Pioneer, Sony, etc...
Very interesting for business.

[Air Key West]

If there are still five A332s available on the market, it means b.air has not got hold of them (or some of them). Too bad. Nevertheless, let's hope SN/LH will make a significant announcement this coming Fall regards long haul expansion. We all agree that SN should expand in AFI. However, other opportunities should not be missed. I talked to a steward recently, who told me that, after nearly seven years, he had asked to be transferred from the African flights to the European ones because he had enough of always having his lay-overs in the same African countries. This is the human being in me that is talking, but I think SN should also start to offer two or three non African destinations with a good potential, also to keep their "troops" motivated and not bored with the same small number of lay-overs. Too bad, b.air did not seize the opportunity to fly to YUL.
If, indeed, the US goverment is asking for a direct flight between Nato HQs and their main non US base, SN should consider flying to Doha (and maybe on to another destination in the Gulf area) and I think, as I already said, consider a second (evening) flight to EWR in co-operation with CO. This would give Star Alliance a definite advantage to NYC over DL (Skyteam) and AA (oneworld). Now that YUL is going to be flown by AC, for me, in addition to expanding in AFI, SN should consider DOH and a second EWR flight as a first step outside Africa. Let's hope SN/LH make the announcements we are all waiting for. I know, we're just too impatient.

[Atlantis]

It makes it even more eminent for SN to open more direct routes to Africa, if possible on a daily base. They'll need extra capacity to do so, so I hope some aircraft come available soon.

SN can wish to open more routes to Africa but there need be first billateral agreements to do so.

[RoMax]

SN need first new aircraft for AFI and long-haul planes are still big investements for a airliner like SN even with LH, when LH has the 100% of SN it is a lot easyer for SN to get new planes but now it is stil a big investment. So the first 1-2 aircraft are absolutly used for AFI than they can think about America and Asia. And I think Boston would be the best choice as first US route because Boston has no non stop connections with BRU and in the time of Sabena Boston was the best performing US route. EWR is also a possebility but CO can perform this route better than SN. I think you need to understand that SN let N-America and Asia to there *A partners in the first 5-years after that they can think about expanding in the other continents. Even the route to Doha is not for the first years if you ask me. SN has not the money to buy 5 long haul planes in one time to start routes to AFI, the US and Asia. They wil choose AFI and that is also the plan of LH I think. Maybe over some years (2-4) they fly to some routes in the US but Asia is even farther away than the US.

[Bralo20]

SN has not the money to buy 5 long haul planes in one time to start routes to AFI, the US and Asia.

They don't have to buy a single plane, they can lease planes... Back in the old days, when SN was Sabena it made sense to actually buy planes since Sabena did everything in house, from A to Z.

Now it's makes sense to lease planes instead of buying them. At least certainly for the first couple of years until SN is fully integrated with LH and they can again starting with own in house maintenance (Lufthansa).

[RoMax]

And you think that leasing 2-5 A330's is cheap? I never say they need to buy them but leasing a lot of long-haul planes in one time is still a big investement for an airliner like SN.

[Air Key West]

Good investments mean extra profits. SN needs to make these investments in additional A330s to operate more lucrative routes to Africa. Only then will they be able to get a lasting sound financial basis. If you cannot afford to investment in something which is going to bring in (a lot of) money, you'de better close your shop.

[Air Key West]

BTW, has anyone any info on when SN is going to become a Star Alliance member ? In December last year, SN and Star announced that SN's application to become a member had been accepted and that LH would be its sponsor. I think it usually takes about a year at least to put everything into place. So, membership from the new winter season starting at the end of October is probably excluded, but could we hope they will have sorted everything out by January ?

[RoMax]

Geert Sciot of SN say to me a week ago that SN will enter *A before the end of this year. So I think they will enter in November or December.
And indeed you are correct about leasing A330's, but I think that SN will get 2-3 extra long-haul planes to the end of 2010 maybe earlyer. But I'm not sure if they gone start routes like Boston, and Doha before the end of 2010 I hope so but I am not to optimistic about that.