The future of Brussels Airlines with Lufthansa

[Atlantis]

Anyway, let the codeshares begin! I'm guessing that a lot of them will follow.

May I hope not only codeshares but some real new African flights out of BRU. Codeshares will remain important, indeed, because Brussels Airlines will lost soon its partner AA.

[Conti764]

Anyway, let the codeshares begin! I'm guessing that a lot of them will follow.

May I hope not only codeshares but some real new African flights out of BRU. Codeshares will remain important, indeed, because Brussels Airlines will lost soon its partner AA.

Well, AA will be replaced by two other American airlines, won't they?

[Air Key West]

Probably three American carriers, if Continental is allowed to join Star Alliance by the American competent authorities, which, I think, is still pending. So, there could CO in addition to UA and US.
Code shares to Africa will probably only be a first step. They are, however, important to attract your loyal pax to flights operated by a partner airline (which you own or are going to own).

[HighInTheSky]

May I hope not only codeshares but some real new African flights out of BRU

Indeed, but for new Africa flights or other long haul flights we will have to wait at least until next year I'm afraid...

[Conti764]

Probably three American carriers, if Continental is allowed to join Star Alliance by the American competent authorities, which, I think, is still pending. So, there could CO in addition to UA and US.
Code shares to Africa will probably only be a first step. They are, however, important to attract your loyal pax to flights operated by a partner airline (which you own or are going to own).

The DOT approved the ATI from CO, UA, AC and LH accept for some particular routes, so I don't think there is anything that can stop CO from joining Star Alliance.

With two American carriers, I meant CO and UA, I always seem to forget US Airways

[tolipanebas]

With US serving BRU only 4 or 5 times a week this winter, I don't think SN needs to expect much feeder from them, but UA and CO combined will definitely do a good job replacing AA, no worries.

Besides, if you're an American wanting to go to central Africa, you don't really have that much choices, do you? You'll almost always end up going through Europe on either an AF/KL flight, a BA flight or an SN flight ....

If SN switches transatlantic code share partner, then those people opting to fly SN will just switch transatlantic airline and they now have 2 iso 1 option available to them, so that's a definite plus.

The biggest looser will be AA, because what will they offer their AFI bound pax? BA through LHR?
They will loose business and they know it, hence them planning to downsize at BRU already.
Forget about seeing the 777 on ORD and forget about the JFK flight all together for next year...

[sdbelgium]

They will loose business and they know it, hence them planning to downsize at BRU already.
Forget about seeing the 777 on ORD and forget about the JFK flight all together for next year...

Yes, indeed. The 777 flights are already announced to go. 763 will replace on the ORD service. AA JFK service is expected to be cancelled. I guess DL will upgrade to 763 then?

[brusselsairlinesfan]

AA JFK service to be cancelled? Maybe we can start to speculate again on a SN JFK flight on own metal? That would be nice, isnt'it... as this route is so symbolic...

[Bralo20]

With US serving BRU only 4 or 5 times a week this winter, I don't think SN needs to expect much feeder from them, but UA and CO combined will definitely do a good job replacing AA, no worries.

US BRU-PHL will become seasonal, the last flight will be on October, 27 2009.

No US flights during the winterseason.

[Bralo20]

Yes, indeed. The 777 flights are already announced to go. 763 will replace on the ORD service. AA JFK service is expected to be cancelled. I guess DL will upgrade to 763 then?

Last AA 777 flight to ORD will be operated on November, 21. On November 22, the 763 resumes the service.

AA flight 171 (757 operated) is still available through the booking system till next year...

At this moment the status of the future flights towards the USA / Canada is:

UA951 (Washington) -> B777
DL125 (Atlanta) -> B767
DL141 (JFK) -> B757
AA171 (JFK) -> B757
AA89 (ORD) -> B767
CO61 (EWR) -> B767
9W228 (EWR) -> A330
9W226 (JFK) -> A330
9W230 (YYZ) -> A330

Seasonal (ending in october):

TS155/7 (YUL) -> A310
US751 -> B757

[Bralo20]

UA is the only operator that seems to be flying the year round with a B777. And from the times I've been on this flight it seems to do it very well (flights were always packed)

[Darjeeling]

I think you guys have a lot of phantasmal views on this forum.

You try to make us think and believe that AA is heavily dependant on SN's feeder ?
Well let me tell you it's not the case, at least not to justify AA's withdrawal from the
NYC-BRU market. Both ORD and JFK are doing really well especially in summer. Hence the (seasonal) 777.

And about CO, I'm not sure they'll be willing to free up a lot of seats for SN codeshare allotment as they
already have a LOT of premium pax on this route with respectable load factors BTW. (esp O&D pax)

Most of SN's codeshare on TATL are soft one of 4 to 20 seats no more. I speak about CODESHARES not interline
travel which are two separate things "sales speaking".

If you want to have a REAL grasp on TATL-AFI market you have to operate with your own metal, sooner or
later (that means to have ambitions ). I trust LH people know that already.

[tolipanebas]

With US serving BRU only 4 or 5 times a week this winter, I don't think SN needs to expect much feeder from them, but UA and CO combined will definitely do a good job replacing AA, no worries.

US BRU-PHL will become seasonal, the last flight will be on October, 27 2009.
No US flights during the winterseason.

My mistake; I saw them talking about cutting frequency, but I forgot it turned out to be a complete suspension of the route during the winterseason.
As such, the point I made about US as feeder for AFI is even more pertinent: SN will depend on UA and CO alone.

You try to make us think and believe that AA is heavily dependant on SN's feeder ?
Well let me tell you it's not the case, at least not to justify AA's withdrawal from the
NYC-BRU market. Both ORD and JFK are doing really well especially in summer. Hence the (seasonal) 777.

We'll see.
AA started JFK on explicit demand from SN and although SN isn't very active in selling O&D tickets on the flight to JFK under its own flight number (a few ten at best indeed), the flight does get a lot of onward SN connections which are all booked on AA ticket numbers.
Given the fact the AA/SN codeshare will end at the end of October, those pax won't be there any longer and as it is already just a 757 serving the route, there isn't much further downsizing possible, is there?
Or Is AA going to cut frequencies, like DL is doing (JFK only 5 times a week or what will it be?).
Combine this with your remark about CO's good laodfactor by itself and the added extra loads after a team up with SN and it is not irrational to imagine them going double daily to EWR, something which would definitely kill AA (and DL) on the BRU-JFK route.
Personally I wouldn't take a bet on them being still around with a JFK flight in 1 year's time...

[Conti764]

AA JFK service to be cancelled? Maybe we can start to speculate again on a SN JFK flight on own metal? That would be nice, isnt'it... as this route is so symbolic...

An SN flight to JFK really is unnecesary and expensive. SN should focus on markets where they can make a difference, not be airline number 400 to fly to JFK. I sincerelly hope Brussels Airlines won't get the same attitude Sabena had whit flights to unprofitbale destinations.

[Conti764]

UA is the only operator that seems to be flying the year round with a B777. And from the times I've been on this flight it seems to do it very well (flights were always packed)

UA has enough T7's to operate them to BRU, while CO switches both the T7 and 764 between different destinations.

But as soon as SN starts codesharing with Continental, I expect them to either operate a permanent T7 service or a second daily rotation on 752.

[Conti764]

And about CO, I'm not sure they'll be willing to free up a lot of seats for SN codeshare allotment as they
already have a LOT of premium pax on this route with respectable load factors BTW. (esp O&D pax)

If the market demands, CO will offer more capacity between EWR and BRU. And they don't care if it are their own pax or SN's pax. The reason why CO has mostly O&D pax to BRU is because they have no alliance nor codesharing partner to BRU and some very nice corporate contracts in C, guaranteeing them with a year round good LF in C. If they joing a C/S agreement with SN, there will automatically be more pax on transfers.

I see three possible scenario's (give their current fleet):

Year round 777-200 + seasonal 757-200
Year round 767-400 + 757-200 and seasonal 777-200 and 757-200
Year round 777-200 + 757-200

[Established02]

Given the fact the AA/SN codeshare will end at the end of October

What makes you believe that this is a fact?

Both SN8001/SN8002 (ORD flights operated by AA) and SN8003/SN8004 (JFK flights operated by AA) are apparently still in the system throughout the whole winter season 2009.

SN has not loaded any USA flights yet for Summer 2010.

[DannyVDB]

You can still book on the codeshared flight after October. I think they will announce the end of the SN-AA codeshare clearly, probably next year in March?

Danny

[kiwiandrew]

slightly off topic - does anyone have any educated guesses as to when SN will actually be a *A member ? It is supposed to happen before end 2009 as far as I can see , I wonder if it will coincide with the closure of Privilege at the end of October .

[tolipanebas]

As from the start of the winter season, SN will start codesharing with LH's UK affiliate BMI on the BRU-LHR route and thus discontinue the codeshare with BA.

Simultaneously, BMI will put its flight code on SN's 2 daily flights to LGW.

By doing this, ALL routes between Belgium and the UK operated by either BMI or SN will thus be offered under a mutual code share agreement.