Boeing 787 - How late?

David747 · Post by **David747** » 02 Sep 2007, 07:12

I wonder if production problems wouldn't have affected the 787 had Boeing not rolled out the plane on 7/8/7. Part of the article suggests that Boeing could potentially have problems with the wiring and other systems.. The plane was supposed to fly on the 27 of last month. Either way, the first flight of the 787 should be soon, and good possibility is that on Wednesday, the company will announce that the program could still be on schedule for production and EIS.

smokejumper · Post by **smokejumper** » 03 Sep 2007, 02:31

David747 wrote:I wonder if production problems wouldn't have affected the 787 had Boeing not rolled out the plane on 7/8/7. Part of the article suggests that Boeing could potentially have problems with the wiring and other systems.. The plane was supposed to fly on the 27 of last month. Either way, the first flight of the 787 should be soon, and good possibility is that on Wednesday, the company will announce that the program could still be on schedule for production and EIS.

I guess that if the rollout had been delayed until the plane was almost ready (no rollout is ever complete and flight worthy), they might have saved labor cost (man-hours) incurred in disassembly and re-assembly, but the outcome might still have been the same. Late arriving parts were the issue.

They might still be waiting for some parts to arrive and (with current union agreeents) had to pay for labor anyway.

David747 · Post by **David747** » 03 Sep 2007, 03:07

I think what matters in the end is that the plane is built and tested, and for Boeing not to hit any production snags like Airbus had with the A380. And as I said before, since the 787 is a new program, potential delays are to be expected.

bits44 · Post by **bits44** » 04 Sep 2007, 18:49

As was stated earlier the delays in production are being caused by the reinstallation of temporary fasteners.

http://flightblogger.blogspot.com/2007/ ... major.html

mmciau · Post by **mmciau** » 04 Sep 2007, 22:25

bits44 wrote:As was stated earlier the delays in production are being caused by the reinstallation of temporary fasteners.

http://flightblogger.blogspot.com/2007/ ... major.html

Just sometimes, PR and Sales (the glitz and glam mob) should be quietened.

If the Workshop floor had been able to assemble the first aircraft properly instead of meeting some PR generated date (8 July 2007), then perhaps a lot of this waiting/slippage may have been avoided.

Mike McInerney

achace · Post by **achace** » 05 Sep 2007, 01:53

Boeing have the chance today to be realistic instead of continually nudging a few days and weeks to first flight.

They cannot put power on until they have finished assembly, and the best Boeing have ever done between power on and first flight has been 90 days, not counting the MD11 which had power on before roll out.

With so many new untried systems, plus a ground resonance test on the worlds largest composite aircraft(issues in itself) even 90 days could be optimistic.

If my assertions are correct,we may see a first flight in December.

Cheers
Achace

David747 · Post by **David747** » 05 Sep 2007, 06:16

It wouldn't surprise me if the first flight for the 787 is in December.

Jet Blast · Post by **Jet Blast** » 05 Sep 2007, 17:02

In the conference call today Boeing said first flight is now scheduled for mid-November to mid-December.

bits44 · Post by **bits44** » 05 Sep 2007, 17:04

From conference call, basically its a fastener delay, first flight delayed to late November.

electrical systems tested and ready for certification.

Next update at the end of October.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/b ... lay05.html

smokejumper · Post by **smokejumper** » 05 Sep 2007, 17:06

Well folks, it looks as though we'll see a record flight certification program for the 787.

A successful 5 month program wll certainly land in the Guiniss Book of Records!

FLY4HOURS.BE · Post by **FLY4HOURS.BE** » 05 Sep 2007, 19:24

ANA can forget their delivery date.
If all works out ok, it will be 6 months late, specialists predict.
It seems the first 3 months of delay have already been booked, I m surprised to see what problems they will encounter in the production/testing phases.

FLY4HOURS.BE · Post by **FLY4HOURS.BE** » 05 Sep 2007, 19:57

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/4/84924.html

the link to the conference

It seems CEO's lying about the "contingency" plan

His mouth becomes very moisty and he has difficulties finding his words about this...
His pace augments abnormally....

achace · Post by **achace** » 06 Sep 2007, 02:22

Well, Boeing have blown a chance to really do a one time show of pragmatism.

I pity the engineers who obviously have been ignored when this last press conference was put together.

If first flight is December, and it could still be an "if", it leaves about 3000 hours to achieve certification.

Using Bairs numbers, they can probably achieve a bit under 2000 hours flying if test aircraft are added every two weeks, and 1500 hours if they are added every three weeks.

Any problems reduce this, and there is no way one single airplane can put in the required ETOP's hours in the available time.

They should have been a little more practical and slipped the delivery by three months as well.

As I said, "pity the engineers"

Cheers
Achace

David747 · Post by **David747** » 06 Sep 2007, 04:40

Mid December it might be for the first flight. I don't think this delay will have an overall delay in the 787 Program.

bits44 · Post by **bits44** » 06 Sep 2007, 05:15

David747 wrote:Mid December it might be for the first flight. I don't think this delay will have an overall delay in the 787 Program.

I would think there are some who would like to make this into some big catastrophe which it isn't. It was announced at the roll-out that the first flight would occur when the aircraft was ready to fly, some suggested dates were announced but nothing was set in stone, Mike Bair's statement was " It'll fly when it's ready to fly and not before".

Boeing being the conservative company that they are would tend to make that statement a fact.

David747 · Post by **David747** » 06 Sep 2007, 07:17

bits44 wrote:
David747 wrote:Mid December it might be for the first flight. I don't think this delay will have an overall delay in the 787 Program.
I would think there are some who would like to make this into some big catastrophe which it isn't. It was announced at the roll-out that the first flight would occur when the aircraft was ready to fly, some suggested dates were announced but nothing was set in stone, Mike Bair's statement was " It'll fly when it's ready to fly and not before".

Boeing being the conservative company that they are would tend to make that statement a fact.

I bet John Leahy is one of those who wishes to see this delay into some big Catastrophe.

RC20 · Post by **RC20** » 06 Sep 2007, 07:28

I don’t think this is a catastrophe either, though I am surprised at how long the delay is for first flight. I thought (and still do) that they would hit equipment developmental delays.

I believe in the 787 as an aircraft, I just don’t believe the schedule.

I suspect they are keeping ANA apprised, but I don’t believe period that they will deliver in May. I’ll say August of next year.

Also note though, that the next planes down the line will be only a couple weeks each. They obviously are taking advantage of the problems to fix the upstream issues. That should be for the good as it gets the production process closer to it final form.

When I first read the whole 787 concept, my take on it was, are they out of their minds to do an all composite airframe. That’s just too much. But as I looked at it, Boeing does have a long history of working on composite for the military, including bailing Northrop out on the B2. V22 is all composite. So I figure they were good on that, though a lot of new processes involved.

But its still a huge change to have it built globally, not to mention an almost complete revamp of the aircraft systems. Some seem to have done better than I thought (starter generators) and some (A/C) definitely were behind (and almost no mention that those were just recently put in). It looks like there is more than just a couple of those.

On the other hand, that commitment to something like that I think has really sparked the airlines interest, made clear Boeing commitment to stay in the commercial aircraft business (there were a lot of respected folks who thought they would get out).

So, they did an incredible amount in a short period, and its had its repercussions. They also found the holes and flaws in the process, and long term that will pay dividends, and huge ones on the next program.

The ironic part is that if there is a major delay, then Airbus missed the boat by not having the A330+ available. Leahy would have been proven right!

All, right, I guess its off to the wood lot and take out my impatience on the innocent logs. I do want to see the 787 in the air working out problems, not getting it put together problems.

CX · Post by CX » 06 Sep 2007, 08:38

Would be amazing if they can deliver it on time when it doesn't fly until December. Most likely there will be problems when it flies no matter how much simulation or ground testing they do, especially when this is the first full composite fuselage.

euroflyer · Post by **euroflyer** » 06 Sep 2007, 15:57

bits44 wrote: It was announced at the roll-out that the first flight would occur when the aircraft was ready to fly.

Well, hm, how exactly should it fly, if it is not ready to fly

What kind of clever statement is this?? (The same value of information as in: It will be dark tonight

)

I do not think it is a big "catastrophy" (however some people would call it this if it was Airbus announcing a three to four month delay). But I can really not see how they can deliver the first planes in May 2008 if the first flight will just be before Christmas 2007 ?! This means all certification and testing in four months? Come on, that is not realistic. My guess would be more like September / October 2008 for the first delivery. But I am happy if Boeing proves me to be wrong.

FLY4HOURS.BE · Post by **FLY4HOURS.BE** » 06 Sep 2007, 22:20

I don t think the temporary fasteners are the only issue.
Otherwise aircraft number 2 could have used for the first flight as well by October.
It seems they will be using the number 1 for the first flight anyway and that it would be by December, if god permits.

That shows that there is an overall delay on the production chain of the test aircraft. That is mostly due to delays at the suppliers, a new production process and other unknown issues.

Just for the rumours,
I ve heard there are wiring issues on the number 1.

Certification & delivery is near to impossible within 5 months. That's only 150 days... on 8 aircraft...