Better strategy for Airbus, taking on 777 and 787 or 747?

Taxi · Post by **Taxi** » 29 Dec 2006, 20:16

Airbus chose to compete with both the 787 and the 777 with one model. Alternatively they could have choosen to compete with 777 and 747 with one model and lower prices on the A330 to keep some market share in that sector.

The aircraft (A360/A370) to tackle the 777 and 747 could've had a 6,37 diameter fuselage with comfortable 10 abreast seating. Two lengths, a 78-80m 4-engine version seating about 450 (?) passengers and a 2-engine 67-69m version, seating about 370 passengers. I think the A330/A340 in the end didn't work out for the A340 not because of the mix with the A330 but because the fuselage was too narrow for stretching to capacities where 4-engines would still make sense. However with a 6,37m fuselage this might not be a problem.

A350XWB scenario:

Pro:
Goes after the two most important Boeing planes with only one model

Con:
Leaves the 747 part of the market mostly uncontested
3 sizes so mostly the smallest is compromised

A360/A370 scenario:

Pro:
Only 2 sizes per fuselage size, so less compromise
Still leaves room for a narrower (more economic) 8-seat abreast (no middle seats) successor for the A330 (perhaps with some updates, for instance the engines)

Con:
Needs either the GE90 engines or something new entirely
More expensive to develope because of different number of engines.

What would've been the better strategy in your view and for what reason?

Taxi · Post by **Taxi** » 09 Jan 2007, 00:54

Noone has a opinion on this and care to share it?

Seeing how well the A330 is still selling, an updated version with new engines etc. like originally suggested might still be able to keep some marketshare.

arpa · Post by **arpa** » 09 Jan 2007, 09:03

Taxi wrote:Seeing how well the A330 is still selling, an updated version with new engines etc. like originally suggested might still be able to keep some marketshare.

A350 program is not only XWB, afaik. But what bothers me most, is what you pointed out - it will compete not only with 787/777, but with their own 330/340 as well. A bit odd... but perhaps i'm missing sth.

Taxi · Post by **Taxi** » 10 Jan 2007, 18:34

arpa wrote:A350 program is not only XWB, afaik. But what bothers me most, is what you pointed out - it will compete not only with 787/777, but with their own 330/340 as well. A bit odd... but perhaps i'm missing sth.

Well the A340 slowly strarted died after the introduction of the GE90 engine, but they are competing their A330. I think Airbus was afraid that if they would design one 777/747 competitor they would be overtaken once Boeing released their Y3 and then they would have difficulty competing with both the 787 and Y3.

Buzz · Post by **Buzz** » 10 Jan 2007, 21:09

It would still mean leaving the most important part of the market (A330-787) all to Boeing, since it is obvious an (updated) A330 can't compete with the 787.

The biggest orders (and hence the biggest profits) are to be found in the 250-350 pax. range... Focussing above that range entirely after the did the A380 is, well, just stupid.

Taxi · Post by **Taxi** » 11 Jan 2007, 00:30

Buzz wrote:It would still mean leaving the most important part of the market (A330-787) all to Boeing, since it is obvious an (updated) A330 can't compete with the 787.

Well agree, that an A330NG would not fully compete with the 787, however it could still be able to get a decent share of the market based on commonality, available slots and a reduced price.

The biggest orders (and hence the biggest profits) are to be found in the 250-350 pax. range... Focussing above that range entirely after the did the A380 is, well, just stupid.

The A380 has set Airbus back in the race to develop new models for the A320/737, A330/787 and A340/777/747 markets. Seems they're trying to catch up by introducing a single model to compete with both the 787/777. So yes from that POV it might make good sense to tackle the 270-350 pax range with one model, but it does have serious consequences for how your model range will look. And in the long run having a model range that's optimally suited for delivering the most competitive model in each part of the market is most succesfull. The current approach has the probable drawback that they aren't as competitive in the 250-290 and 360-470 part of the market and might not become so for a very long time.

Furthermore this strategy seems to make it impossible to make a competitive 2 and 4 engine model sharing the same fuselage diameter like with the A330 and A340. I think the reasons that plan failed is that is was excercised on a too narrow fuselage which became apperent once engines became available powerful enough to propel designs of A340 capacity and range with 2 engines.

So what I'm saying is that it looks like (and may very well be) a good strategy to maximize their current competitiveness with the recources available, but will it still be in say 15 years because of it's implications the choosen approach will have for their model range?

Taxi · Post by **Taxi** » 11 Jan 2007, 00:32

woops wrong button, can be deleted.

Buzz · Post by **Buzz** » 11 Jan 2007, 01:31

Why would Airbus design a new jet with 4 engines? The new A350-1000 will be in the 773 and A346 range, won't it? It will be with 2 engines. Above that, you'll have the A380series, with 4 engines.
4 engines on anything less than an A380 (or B747) will not be done anymore.

Airbus' A380 is targeted at the upper side of the B747 market, and the A346 and the future A3510 is targeted at the lower side of this market.
Since Airbus is investing 25 billion euros in the A350 & A380 I trust they did their homework, and concluded it is enough. Investing another 10 billion for an extra aircraft family isn't nessisairly going to mean extra sales, there is more to it than that.

Taxi · Post by **Taxi** » 13 Jan 2007, 21:34

Buzz wrote:Why would Airbus design a new jet with 4 engines? The new A350-1000 will be in the 773 and A346 range, won't it? It will be with 2 engines. Above that, you'll have the A380series, with 4 engines.
4 engines on anything less than an A380 (or B747) will not be done anymore.

That's my point it won't be (much) less than a 747. With comfortable 10 seats abreast and 78-80 meters the capacity would reach about 450. I think the 747 wouldn't stand a chance against such a design because of the shared fuselage with the smaller 2 engine model and because a brand new design can be designed with the higher efficiency goal in mind throughout the design.

I don't think 2-engines will be able to power a 6,37m 78meter fuselage for a quite a while, but perhaps that may change I don't know.

Buzz wrote:Airbus' A380 is targeted at the upper side of the B747 market, and the A346 and the future A3510 is targeted at the lower side of this market.
Since Airbus is investing 25 billion euros in the A350 & A380 I trust they did their homework, and concluded it is enough. Investing another 10 billion for an extra aircraft family isn't nessisairly going to mean extra sales, there is more to it than that.

You are right, but I wasn't talking about investing an EXTRA 10 billion in addition to the A350 and A380, I was talking about an hypothetical alternative approach with an updated A330, the A380 and a A360 2-engine combined with a A370 4-engine design.

I trust they did their homework as well, but as we know big companies also make mistakes, as we can see with the A380 problems at the moment.