Airbus facing a tough battle ahead

Stepha380 · Post by **Stepha380** » 23 Jun 2006, 15:38

717 failure: Boeing didn't want to sell an MD plane.
F-20 no U.S government order.
Concorde: petrol price, forbidden to land at JFK...

I’ve always thought the A380 would be a market failure

He doesn't give sources, did he write anything around 2001 ???

Some wires are tough to install

Thousands of wires, part of the responsability comes from airlines that have asked top of the range lighting, IFE... when the project was well advanced, they delayed their request to last minute in order to counter what other airlines were preparing. I think this reorganization of the electrical network will be a good thing on the long-term.

The initial planes will likely be overweight.

sources ??? Randy' blog ???

But if a new plane came with a compelling case, people would wait for it

Of course you wait, it doesn't mean you are not angry.

ILFC’s Steve Udvar-Hazy knows more about airline economics and residual values than anyone; if he cancels that’s a serious warning.

Nobody will cancel because there is no competitor with the A380 performance. Deliveries will be well before 748 and it already flies.

If the next few weeks see more than one or two customers cancel, that’s a good indicator that this plane will just suck cash.

Planes are produced for long periods. Look at the 777, who could have forecast its present amazing success ? Qatar canceled 787 LOI last year, didn't they ?

if they’re late with the A370

And If they have a better product than the 787 ??? Of course they will lose the planes delivered during the launch of the two aircraft. As the 787 order book is already complete until 2011, they won't lose many more orders than what is already annouced.

Separation of government and economy

He should have a look at the economy of war that followed the beginning of Vietnam War and the second Irak war. Could have Boeing survived without all government orders ?

clueless officials everywhere spent tens of millions in taxpayer cash on airport upgrades, just to accommodate a marginal requirement.

It is all about safety, let's see what will happen with BAA and ADP privatizations. Airports make a lot of money with taxes, does anybody know airports 747-capable losing money ?

French Government taking a much bigger role in EADS/Airbus ownership and management

French government wants a common head for both companies, not a bad idea after all ?

It would take years to undo re-nationalization and de-globalization

What does he smoke to get so high ? It reminds me of all the poor people collecting empty Coke cans in L.A. streets and beaches to get enough money to eat with the cashback.

I'm looking forward to read his "analyst" point of view on the predictable 787, 748 delays. I can't understand how such people are paid for their advice.

fokker_f27 · Post by **fokker_f27** » 23 Jun 2006, 19:57

717 failure: Boeing didn't want to sell an MD plane.

Are you sure? I tought it was because it wasn't very successful.

keen_watcher · Post by **keen_watcher** » 24 Jun 2006, 12:19

Below quoted from CX posted a while ago:

" The airport capability thing, well the A380 will pretty much 'only' treat large cities anyway, and it is also fair to say that probably only large cities will be able to support the passenger volume for the A380, and so only large cities being able to accomodate the A380 is not really an issue... and i'm sure more and more airports will make themselves available for the A380. "

I read from PPrune (professional pilot chat forum) also a while ago that, since not too many airport noewaday qualified for A380, e.g. HKG-LHR ops, A380 has to use CDG as alternate instead of LGW. And this translate into that airline carries 5 more tons of fuel all the way from HKG to LHR for nothing.... and that's a lot of money, especially these fuel is gold days.. And PERSONALLY I think, other than technical performance uncertainty for new type of aircraft, why quite a few long-haul airline, e.g. CX, BA are not ordering A380....

AND.. again in MHPO, Richard Aboulafia's June letter seems reasonable and convincing...

CX · Post by CX » 24 Jun 2006, 12:56

what's this CDG and LGW stuff?

Stepha380 · Post by **Stepha380** » 24 Jun 2006, 14:49

LHR-CDG 346km
LHR-MAN 243km

I think MAN will be the alternate airport to LHR. Closer, A380 ready and easier to handle passengers.

BRU is often used as an alternate airport for CDG. CDG-BRU 254km

The amount of fuel will be proportionnal to the size of the beast, that's all.

I think BA will order the A380 because they will have around 20 gates A380 ready once installed in T5, otherwise they would not have asked them to BAA. And only BA will use T5, that's a big clue, isn'it ? But maybe BA will order some 748I, time will tell.

Avro · Post by **Avro** » 02 Jul 2006, 21:58

Stepha380 wrote: Thousands of wires, part of the responsability comes from airlines that have asked top of the range lighting, IFE... when the project was well advanced, they delayed their request to last minute in order to counter what other airlines were preparing. I think this reorganization of the electrical network will be a good thing on the long-term.

To be honest I don't think the problems are due to the IFE installations.

The core of the problem is in my opinion due to the use of Aluminium wires instead of the usual copper wires.

It's the first time an airliner will have Al wiring systems instead of the usual Cu ones, and IMHO Airbus is facing quite some troubles with that.

I suspect that Airbus has chosen the Al wires for the simple fact that they are lighter than the Cu ones (it's the only advantage Al has AFAIK). It seems they try to save weight desperatly since the plane is too fat. That's also why the Glare skins will constantly be improved up to airframe number 60 (or 50...)...

Being lighter is great, however the Al wires have several disadvantages and this gives them now some troubles as far as I know. Al wires have a higher impedance for the same size as Cu wires. This means that you will either need to have bigger Al wires to compensate or higher currents going through the cables. Airbus will probably not opt for the bigger wires since this will eat up space and weight again.... So the solution would be higher loads. however the higher loads can have higher EM interference as well. This again means that you should either thicken your shielding or separate the cables further away which is quite some hassle.

Further more Al wires have a smaller working limit compared to Cu wires. This means that you cannot rework the path of the cables as much as you could with Cu.

Nobody knows the real truth of the problems at Airbus, but I'd rather suspect all these kind of troubles around Al wiring than the blame on the airlines who came with IFE requirements very late in the program.

I don't want to sound pessimistic or be against Airbus, but I'm pretty sure the A380 will face some troubles with this new kind of wiring during its operationa life as well. Aluminium wiring offers some wieght savings but a lot of other troubles and is also less reliable IIRC.

This being said I'm sure the people at Airbus know verywell what they are doing and I wish the all the best with solving all those issues.

Just my 2 cents

Chris

fleabyte · Post by **fleabyte** » 09 Jul 2006, 21:38

They would be wise to consider it on future units, to lower the refitting and operations issues maybe.

CXRules · Post by **CXRules** » 10 Jul 2006, 02:36

interesting article here: http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full ... _id=133182

CX · Post by CX » 10 Jul 2006, 14:19

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles/20 ... omers.html

Airbus should be criticised, which has already been done... i don't know but shouldn't an airline put airbus back on track so boeing won't have the monopoly??? i mean if airbus is gone, boeing can sell any random crap at insane prices and you still have to buy it...

Stepha380 · Post by **Stepha380** » 10 Jul 2006, 14:32

i mean if airbus is gone

They still have a 5 year order book. Don't burry them too quickly.

bits44 · Post by **bits44** » 11 Jul 2006, 03:44

Airbus is not going anywhere, its got a fair load of problems to overcome, but too many countries and investors have far too much to lose to let them wither away.

Airbus must restore confidence in the company, it must do that by being brutally honest and forthright, they have run out excuses, the Airline Industry needs Airbus as much as it needs Boeing, but! and its a big but, they will only extend their patience to a certain point.

Above all else they must get the A380 completed and within specs, and delivered when they said they will deliver. There are many who would suggest that Airbus let the A350/A370 project slide until such time as they have all the A380 problems resolved, and concentrate all their efforts and engineering skills in doing that.

With all the other problems hanging over their heads, it will be difficult to concentrate on the solutions required, but they must do it and do it right, thousands of jobs and millions in invested capital are at stake.

KT

CX · Post by CX » 11 Jul 2006, 07:48

Thing is all the airlines now so far has just been saying how disappointed they have been with Airbus, and threatening order cancellations... One thing which is quite certain is, if the A380 really screws up, for example Emirates cancels all its 40 and then others starts backing out, it will be the end of them... too much has been spent on the beast... they can come back with a screwed up A350 which probably wasted them $4billion to design and build a new A370, but with the A380, it won't work.

Their A370/A320/330 are all important, but without A380 deliveries, they won't get any cash to go anywhere...

Zenfookpower · Post by **Zenfookpower** » 11 Jul 2006, 08:28

CX wrote:Thing is all the airlines now so far has just been saying how disappointed they have been with Airbus, and threatening order cancellations... One thing which is quite certain is, if the A380 really screws up, for example Emirates cancels all its 40 and then others starts backing out, it will be the end of them... too much has been spent on the beast... they can come back with a screwed up A350 which probably wasted them $4billion to design and build a new A370, but with the A380, it won't work.

Their A370/A320/330 are all important, but without A380 deliveries, they won't get any cash to go anywhere...

I fully agree... some more dark clouds over the horizon as the "voice of the major customers" is getting louder....see HERE

CX · Post by CX » 11 Jul 2006, 08:48

Yes i have posted that article already... but Emirates, what the hell do they want? "I'm not sure if they go far enough".. then how far do you want them to go Clark?? let YOU bet the CEO?? I mean enough were done to make Airbus re-structure its management, and SIA now says they will 'work with' the new management because, a new management was what they pushed for since they were not happy with the previous!

Zenfookpower · Post by **Zenfookpower** » 11 Jul 2006, 09:05

CX wrote:Yes i have posted that article already... but Emirates, what the hell do they want? "I'm not sure if they go far enough".. then how far do you want them to go Clark?? let YOU bet the CEO?? I mean enough were done to make Airbus re-structure its management, and SIA now says they will 'work with' the new management because, a new management was what they pushed for since they were not happy with the previous!

However it needs more then just management changes...They need to tackle the "systemic" rootcauses and share a "recovery plan" with their customers..Once they (customers) buy in..then rethorics will calm down and you create a win-win appraoch..Ultimately it is still the "voice" of the customer which will prevail.. whether you like or dislike guys like Clark..

CX · Post by CX » 11 Jul 2006, 09:14

It is correct to listen to customers... just i think some are going a bit too far with the criticising...

fokker_f27 · Post by **fokker_f27** » 11 Jul 2006, 12:54

CX wrote:It is correct to listen to customers... just i think some are going a bit too far with the criticising...

I agree. In, fact I also agree with your previous posts. But luckely for them, there are so many companies with stakes in them. But even if airbus fails with the A380, the government will probably try to keep Airbus going even if it was just for parts. Off course, they will slowly go completly out of bussiness that way because the older airbusses will be withdrawn.

Stepha380 · Post by **Stepha380** » 11 Jul 2006, 12:59

Thing is all the airlines now so far has just been saying how disappointed they have been with Airbus, and threatening order cancellations...

ILFC, Emirates and Singapore don't represent all the airlines. How many cancellations so far ??? It is just PR. Let the cheerleaders play together.
If you need examples of airlines happy with Airbus, check Air France, KLM, Northwest, US/HP, UPS, Finnair, Fedex, Malaysia...

there are so many companies with stakes in them

Boeing has chosen the same model for the 787. Isn't it the best to share the risks ???

a new management

The point of view of Deutsche Bank is " a new management doesn't resolve the short-term problems"

whether you like or dislike guys like Clark

Don't think he is so arrogant in a meeting room.

Emirates cancels all its 40 and then others starts backing out, it will be the end of them...

Stop dreaming, it has already flown. Don't forget that there is no other plane with the same capabilities.

A company is run with on the the long-term and not with only six-months or one year in mind.

CX · Post by CX » 11 Jul 2006, 13:21

I didn't say 'cancel', but 'threaten to cancel'... like finnair threaten to cancel their 60 A350 orders..
Perhaps i shouldn't use 'all airlines', but those who ordered A380 and previously the A350, most of them were unhappy, those who didn't order both but chose the 787/777 instead - i cannot say they are 'happy' with airbus either, but of course unhappy in another way... ie Cathay knew there would be huge delays for the A380(i know this person working in cx management), they didn't say anything in public, does that mean they're happy?

yes emirates cancelling their whole a380 order will probably never happen, but i'm just saying that if that happens, airbus would be in deep deep trouble where they probably cannot recover...

fleabyte · Post by **fleabyte** » 11 Jul 2006, 22:39

They are "ordered" but I am sure with different levels of committment. If Emirates buys some major carriers, then it would be logical for 43, but based on expansion - wishful thinking

Now with the problems? Not so easy for Emirates to sell it's positions

Aviation24.be

Airbus facing a tough battle ahead

what if they have to replace the AL wires

Emirates likely will not take 43 A380